Friday, May25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
The Pinehills, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:11AMSunset 8:08PM Friday May 25, 2018 2:54 PM EDT (18:54 UTC) Moonrise 4:05PMMoonset 3:23AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 116 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure will allow for breezy return S flow today into Saturday. This ahead of a back door cold front late Saturday behind which winds back out of the ne. Stall S of the waters Sunday into Monday, looking at wet weather chances to prevail before clearing out Tuesday with a brief period of high pressure settling back in before more unsettled weather late week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near The Pinehills, MA
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location: 41.92, -70.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 251754
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
154 pm edt Fri may 25 2018

Synopsis
High pressure centered south and east of new england will bring
a very warm dry day with gusty southwest winds. A cold front
drops south across the region late Saturday into Saturday
evening, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms followed
by much cooler and unsettled weather Sunday with some
improvement by Monday. Mainly dry and warmer weather returns for
Tuesday through Thursday as high pressure moves in.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
150 pm update...

unseasonably warm conditions persist this afternoon. High
pressure is centered well SE of the area, placing us in a return
flow from the W sw. Sunny mostly sunny skies continue, temps
climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s for most locales, except
cooler near the south coast CAPE islands due to onshore wind
component. Will also have excellent mixing this afternoon,
allowing for wind gusts 25 to around 30 mph. Hot but not humid
away from the south coast with dew points in the 40s to low 50s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Tonight...

diminishing winds and quiet, dry weather. S SW winds prevailing,
breezy along the S se-coast, ushering higher dewpoint air into
the region. This will limit temperatures to drop overnight to
their cross-over threshold (the dewpoint that which was observed
at time of MAX daytime heating). Lows around the lower 60s.

Saturday...

chance of late-day scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Yet
signals of an unremarkable convective-supporting environment. Rising
heights through the column, pockets of dry air, somewhat mid-level
confluence, perhaps upper-level speed diffluence. Only thing going,
another n-stream vortlobe, canadian high pressure following, presses
a sagged cold front S W as a back-door across S new england, a much
cooler airmass in tow. Certain low-level lift on a mild, somewhat
humid boundary layer airmass, with upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints.

High-res guidance spitting out some scattered activity, convective
with weak mid-level instability, pockets of negative showalters,
total-totals above 50, and k-indices exceeding 35. While noting
precipitable waters upwards of 1.5 inches and indications of mid-
level subsidence, can't rule out scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity along the back-door cold front, yet feel what GOES up will
not sustain and come right back down given the absence of shear
weak hodograph profile. More likely in regions with surface to h7
lapse rates of 7-8 c km. Falling cores while noting inverted-v model
forecast soundings, in addition to lightning can't rule out gusty,
downdraft winds, especially given downdraft CAPE upwards of 2000
j kg. Airmass thunderstorms overall, perhaps more focused atop high
terrain with any upsloping anabatic flow.

Chance pops continue but future forecasts may want to include threats
of heavy rain and gusty winds into the forecast grids. Difficult to
nail down where across the interior, away from the NE coast at least,
but as to when, the back door cold front pushing into afternoon during
peak interior heating per model forecast consensus, a late-day show
seems likely continuing into evening.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Big picture...

a southern jet moves over mexico and the southern usa. This jet
forms a closed low over the gulf of mexico with upper high pressure
over northern mexico and the southwest atlantic. This southern
pattern remains static through the middle of next week and allows
tropical moisture to feed north into areas south of the ohio valley
and south of mason-dixon. The question for new england is whether
any northern stream disturbances during the coming week can reach
down and pull this moisture farther north into our area.

Zonal flow is aloft over canada and parts of the northern usa. One
shortwave trough moving through this flow crosses the northeast usa
Sunday and Monday. Closed low over the western usa this weekend
ejects into the northern stream by midweek and crosses new
england late in the week. Both of these systems have the
potential to pull the tropical moisture north as they moves
through our area, one on Sunday and the other late in the week.

Both will need to be monitored.

Model consensus shows 500 mb contours starting around 576 dm and
building to 582 dm during mid week. This is higher warmer than
normal during the long term. The surface layer flow favors a cool
period over the weekend but then trending warmer than normal again
Tuesday through Thursday.

Model mass fields are similar over new england through Wednesday
night, but diverge over the western usa Tuesday night. The
differences then spread to new england by late week. Our thermal
fields also show similarity through Tuesday but then start diverging
mid to late week. This generates moderate confidence in the Saturday
night-to-Monday forecast, then moderate to high confidence midweek,
diminishing a little on Thursday.

Concerns...

Saturday night-Sunday...

the cold front stalls south of our area overnight. High pressure
building over the maritimes brings increasing east winds trailing
the front and a cool moist marine flow to southern new england.

Model 1000 mb winds show 20-30 knot easterlies raking the
massachusetts east coast with strongest winds on CAPE ann and outer
cape cod. Ocean temps are in the mid 50s, except upper 40s and low
50s around the outer CAPE and nantucket. This would suggest Saturday
night min temps in the 50s and MAX temps Sunday mid to upper 50s
east and mid 60s west, farthest away from the ocean.

The upper shortwave approaching from the great lakes Sunday and its
supporting 70-knot upper jet may induce a wave along the stalled
front. This should keep a chance of showers with us Sunday, with
enough confidence to toss in likely pops.

Monday through Thursday...

shortwave trough moves east of us by Monday morning. Cross sections
for relative humidity show moisture below 700 mb lingering but
diminishing in magnitude. This suggests clouds will linger, although
some breaks are possible. Also can't rule out a slight chance of
showers, but the lack of appreciable lift puts a damper on that
possibility.

High pressure builds down from northern ontario Tuesday and
Wednesday, then moves offshore Thursday. This should be a period of
sunny weather. Mixing is projected to reach 825 mb Tuesday and
Wednesday, and 900 mb Thursday. Temperatures at those levels support
max sfc temps in the low to mid 80s, while dew points suggest min
temps in the 50s.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence thru tonight.

Moderate confidence on timing of back door cold front and
associated impacts during later Saturday.

Today...

vfr all areas through the day. W SW winds gusting to 25-30 kts
through this afternoon.

Tonight...

sw winds diminish to around 10 kts, but remain brisk over S se
coast with gusts up to 20 kts. Llws potential along the CAPE and
islands. Low chance for development of ifr CIGS on ack.

Saturday...

back door cold front produces a wind shift from the W SW to N ne
during the afternoon evening, first near bed bos and then later
for points S sw. Sct shra tsra towards late-day, producing
tempo MVFR cig vsby impacts. Can't rule out brief, gusty winds
upwards of 30+ kts with any activity. Low chance for development
of ifr CIGS on CAPE islands.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in TAF thru tonight, moderate
confidence for timing of back door cold front on sat. Wsw winds
gusting to 25 kts thru this aft'n, can't rule out some gusts to
30 kts. Winds diminish this evening. Wsw winds around 10 kts to
start Saturday then wind shift to nne with back door cold front
during the afternoon.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. Wsw winds gusting to 25
kts thru this aft'n, can't rule out a few gusts to 30 kts. Back
door cold front holds off until later on Sat sat eve which would
produce a wind shift from wsw to nne..

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ... Moderate confidence.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy.

Chance shra, chance tsra.

Sunday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Breezy. Chance shra,
slight chance tsra.

Sunday night: mainly ifr, with areasVFR possible. Breezy.

Slight chance shra, isolated tsra, patchy br.

Memorial day: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Slight
chance shra.The
Monday night: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Patchy br.

Tuesday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percthe ent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

This afternoon into tonight...

small craft advisories for all waters, especially S se, with
brisk wsw winds gusts around 25 kts, thus allowing waves to
build at or above 5 feet. Winds dampening overnight, advisories
allowed to drop off.

Saturday...

small craft advisories may be needed. Increasing chances of
late day showers and thunderstorms ahthe ead of a NE wind-shift
associated with a back door cold front. Gusty winds immediately
behind the front upwards of around 25 kts building seas upwards
of 5 feet. Greatest threat of SCA conditions over the E waters.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ... Moderate confidence.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of
thunderstorms.

Sunday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of
thunderstorms.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Memorial day: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... Air quality ALERT until 11 pm edt this evening for riz001>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Saturday for anz232>234-
250.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for anz230-
231-236-251.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Saturday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Saturday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb sipprell
near term... Wtb sipprell nmb
short term... Sipprell
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb sipprell nmb
marine... Wtb sipprell nmb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 13 mi84 min 55°F1 ft
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 23 mi129 min 4.1 69°F 1013 hPa57°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 28 mi84 min 61°F 58°F1012.5 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 30 mi124 min SSW 14 G 14 60°F 2 ft1010.3 hPa (-2.4)53°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 30 mi124 min WSW 14 G 14 67°F 55°F2 ft1010 hPa (-2.3)51°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 33 mi74 min SW 18 G 21 60°F 57°F1012 hPa55°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 35 mi84 min 82°F 61°F1011.8 hPa
FRXM3 36 mi84 min 79°F 56°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 36 mi84 min SSW 14 G 17 76°F 1011 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 40 mi84 min 84°F 1008.6 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 42 mi110 min 64°F 56°F2 ft1007.8 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 44 mi84 min WSW 13 G 19 82°F 64°F1011.3 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 44 mi114 min SW 20 G 22 58°F 1013.3 hPa (-2.3)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 45 mi84 min WNW 12 G 19 87°F 60°F1010.6 hPa
PVDR1 45 mi84 min WNW 12 G 17 85°F 1011.3 hPa49°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 46 mi84 min SW 8.9 G 15 74°F 1011.2 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 46 mi129 min SSW 5.1 80°F 1012 hPa59°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA9 mi62 minSW 11 G 2110.00 miFair86°F51°F30%1010.3 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA14 mi59 minWSW 9 G 2010.00 miFair88°F46°F24%1009.5 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA18 mi2 hrsSW 1710.00 miFair73°F55°F53%1012.5 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA20 mi58 minSSW 14 G 2010.00 miFair74°F57°F57%1010.3 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA22 mi58 minSW 18 G 2410.00 miFair and Breezy75°F55°F52%1011.1 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA24 mi62 minWSW 8 G 2010.00 miFair88°F48°F26%1010.1 hPa

Wind History from PYM (wind in knots)
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SW9SW6S8SW7SW8S7SW6SW6SW5SW6SW6W9SW11W13
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1 day agoCalmSE7S6SE7S6S4S3N13E4NE10NE6NE4NE5NE5N3CalmN5NE5E5Calm55NE7E9
2 days agoS6S7S8S3S3CalmS3S3S3SW4SW4SW4SW5S3SW6SW5SW5SW6NW8NW7NW63E7NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Plymouth, Massachusetts
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Plymouth
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Fri -- 02:52 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:53 AM EDT     9.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:15 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:24 PM EDT     10.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.12.70.90.31.12.757.499.597.75.83.41.20.20.51.94.16.68.8109.98.9

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:44 AM EDT     0.09 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:56 AM EDT     4.04 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:01 AM EDT     -0.12 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:51 AM EDT     -4.41 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:07 PM EDT     0.04 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:26 PM EDT     4.30 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:37 PM EDT     -0.16 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:24 PM EDT     -4.42 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.51.53.23.943.830.5-3.2-4.2-4.4-4.1-3.1-1.12.83.84.34.23.82.5-2-3.7-4.4-4.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.