Thursday, September21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Windsor Locks, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 6:49PM Thursday September 21, 2017 3:36 PM EDT (19:36 UTC) Moonrise 7:54AMMoonset 7:54PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1201 Pm Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Isolated showers late.
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. Scattered showers after midnight.
Fri..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. Scattered showers in the morning.
Fri night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1201 Pm Edt Thu Sep 21 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Tropical storm jose will remain nearly stationary southeast of long island for the next several days, become post-tropical on Friday if not sooner, then dissipate this weekend. Meanwhile high pressure will build to the north this weekend into early next week. Hurricane maria is then expected to pass east of the southeast coast and is being Monitored closely for any potential impacts later next week. Please refer to national hurricane center products for more details on jose and maria.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Windsor Locks, CT
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location: 41.92, -72.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 211753
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
153 pm edt Thu sep 21 2017

Synopsis
Jose has stalled well southeast of nantucket and will slowly drift
toward the southwest the next few days. This will maintain
strong winds, rain and rough seas for a couple of days,
especially on CAPE cod and islands as well as the adjacent ocean
waters. Meanwhile clearing moves into western mass and
connecticut. High pressure builds in from the great lakes with
dry weather over the weekend, before a front brings a few
showers early next week.

Near term through tonight
130 pm update...

continuing more or less with status quo with minor adjustment of
grids to reflect current conditions and trends. Continuing wind
advisory, coastal flood advisory, and high surf headlines for
now. The high surf advisory will probably be extended into the
weekend. Anticipate winds to begin to very gradually diminish
overnight.

1015 am update...

jose was remaining nearly stationary. Although jose was slowly
filling, the wind field on the NW side was expanding a little,
and all model guidance continues to depict deeper mixing today
into this evening. Thus, we actually anticipate our highest wind
gusts for this event to occur today, mainly afternoon to early
evening. Have made relatively minor adjustments to wind gust,
sky, pop, and temperature fields.

The tropical storm warning will remain up for nantucket,
martha's vinveyard, CAPE cod, and block island. We should
experience a very gradual weakening of the wind late tonight
into Friday.

7 am update...

low clouds extend from the central hills eastward, with some mid
and high clouds farther west. Radar shows one area of showers
rotating around jose has moved off to the southwest. Winds
gusting to 43 knots at nantucket and 25-35 knots in ri and
eastern mass.

Expect increasing wind east of the central hills as the
pressure gradient field expands around jose. Will be maintaining
wind and tropical headlines as is for the present. Temperatures
look reasonable, except a few spots around boston... Will nudge
max temps up a couple of degrees.

Previous discussion...

jose is about 150 miles southeast of nantucket with tropical storm
force winds extending 150-180 miles out from the center. Observed
winds at nantucket have reached this value with peak winds to 45
knots. Winds are less to the northwest. Radar shows some light
showers reaching CAPE cod and marthas vineyard, and somewhat heavier
showers reaching nantucket.

As jose drifts southwest, expect additional showers today for the
cape and islands... Primarily nantucket. The strong pressure gradient
will maintain strong winds along the coast with the strongest across
the CAPE and islands. Winds aloft suggest gusty winds across inland
new england, but more like 25-35 knots in interior ri and eastern
mass and less wind in western mass and ct. We have dropped the wind
advisory over interior ri and interior eastern mass, but maintained
it along the mass and ri coasts. Meanwhile, the tropical storm
warning will remain for CAPE cod and the islands.

While showers will continue on nantucket, some heavy, the amounts
will be spread out. This will reduce the likelihood of flooding.

We will drop the flash flood watch for nantucket with this package.

Meanwhile, the storm shifting southwest will spread clouds back into
our western areas, so we have indicated a trend for increasing
clouds but no showers.

Short term Friday
Jose offshore will trend weaker tonight and Friday. He will maintain
clouds and showers across CAPE cod and islands. But expect winds to
diminish during this period. There is a chance for a couple of
showers in ri and in mass east of worcester, although confidence for
this is low. Skies in western mass and ct will show partial
clearing. So expect a dry day for most of the region.

Winds may be strong enough to maintain the wind advisory for a few
hours, although confidence in this diminishes in the afternoon.

Upper wind and temperature profiles suggest gusts around 20 knots in
the west and 25 to 30 knots in the east off-cape. Gusts to 40 knots
still possible over CAPE cod and islands through at least the
morning.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Highlights...

* dry over weekend, some showers possible early next week
* monitor forecasts as maria heads through caribbean
building upper ridge from southern plains to great lakes will
ultimately push jose west and southwest while it gradually
weakens, loosening its grip on southern new england. We may
still see some cloudiness Sat and even sun, but N NE winds will
steadily subside by Sat morning.

Return to warmer weather expected Sun and Mon but a backdoor
front should sag close enough Tue Wed to bring clouds, cooler
temps and perhaps few showers as low pressure heads across
western great lakes.

Also need to monitor progress of hurricane maria over next few
days. Although ensembles and model consensus is to recurve
system offshore, its track will ultimately be affected by upper
ridge breaking down in response to trough moving east across
great lakes, so expect to see variability in operational model
runs until trough becomes better handled. Best advice is to
follow latest forecasts from the national hurricane center.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ...

rest of this afternoon...

have seen some improvement over all but the far southeast
portion of the area. Numerous areas of MVFR CIGS expected to
persist across SE ma and ifr CIGS over ack. Areas of MVFR vsbys
in showers expected to persist this afternoon into tonight
across CAPE cod and nantucket.

North-northeast winds will continue with gusts to 20 to 25 knots
west, and generally 30 to 40 knots east and south coastal
areas... Except gusts 40 to 50 knots CAPE cod and islands.

Tonight and Friday...

anticipate ceilings to lower after midnight across eastern ma
and southern ri to MVFR and remain low MVFR or ifr across cape
cod and nantucket. Nne winds linger, but gradually diminish
during Friday. Gusts of 40 to 50 knots still possible nantucket
this evening and then 30 to 40 knots overnight. Gusts 35 to 40
knots over CAPE cod and martha's vineyard this evening and then
gradually diminishing to 30 to 35 knots overnight.

Kbos taf... Sustained nne winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35
knots, gradually diminishing after 00z. Anticipate with moderate
confidence MVFR CIGS moving back to bos after 06z.

Kbdl taf... High confidence.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

high confidence.

Fri night and sat... MVFR ifr ceilings possible, ESP eastern ma.

Sun and mon...VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ...

this afternoon... Have continued to adjust seas a little to
reflect current observations and trends. Noted marep from
buzzards bay of 6 to 8 foot seas. Believe that we may experience
a period of 12 to 15 feet seas across mass bay this
afternoon early evening.

Jose lingers well southeast of nantucket today, slowly drifting
southwest. Tropical storm force winds will linger over most of the
waters with gusts to 45 knots. Showers and some fog will continue,
especially across the southern waters, creating poor visibility at
times. Rough seas continue, with heights 10-20 feet on the outer
waters.

Tonight and Friday...

the waters will continue to be affected by tropical storm jose
passes southeast of the waters today, then lingers well offshore
through at least Thursday. This will allow strong winds to linger
over the waters through at least Thursday, with gusts of 35-45 knots
over most of the waters, with gusts 25-30 knots on narragansett bay
and mass bay boston harbor.

Building swells have already reached as high as 16 ft at buoy 44008
se of nantucket. Expect high swell will continue through
Thursday, especially over the waters with a southern exposure.

Showers and fog will also linger through Thursday, creating poor
vsbys. Jose. North to northeast
winds linger tonight, then diminish a little during Friday. Expect
tropical storm force winds tonight, and 30 to 40 knot winds Friday
as the pressure gradient diminishes. Seas continue rough tonight,
then subside a little Friday. Friday seas will still be 10-15 feet
on the outer waters.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

moderate confidence.

Strong N winds persist through Saturday morning, gusting as high
as 40kt on south coastal waters as jose drifts S and away from
southern new england. High pressure builds over waters Sunday
and Monday with lighter winds, but seas will take most of
weekend to subside on open south coastal waters.

Tides coastal flooding
1015 am update...

no significant change expected for coastal impacts. Anticipate
minor coastal flooding during at least next two high tide cycles
along SE ma coast except minor to moderate coastal flooding
nantucket harbor next two high tide cycles.

Long duration significant beach erosion continues with continued
risk for severe impact east side of nantucket and along the
outer CAPE cod coast from eastham through orleans to chatham.

Prior discussion...

high surf will continue into at least Saturday with the most
severe beach erosion along the east side of nantucket and the
outer CAPE ocean side from eastham to orleans to chatham.

Another area of significant beach erosion is expected to be the
south sides of nantucket and martha's vineyard due to the impact
of a persistent SE swell.

As far as coastal flooding, the area of greatest concern remains
the nantucket harbor area where we may experience a higher-end
minor or lower-end moderate event during high tide early this
afternoon and again late tonight. Minor coastal flooding may
linger for the Friday early afternoon high tide.

Elsewhere across CAPE cod, martha's vineyard, and the plymouth
county coastline, still expect areas of minor coastal flooding
for the late night and early afternoon high tide cycles through
at least tonight.

High surf advisory remains posted outside of the tropical storm
warning area through Friday. The advisory covers threats from
both high surf and dangerous rip currents. We may end up having
to extend the high surf advisory into at least part of the
weekend.

Swells from maria may re-increase the surf and associated rip
current risk across our ocean exposed south coast sometime
during the first half of next week.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Tropical storm warning for maz022>024.

High surf advisory until 6 pm edt Friday for maz007-019-020.

Coastal flood advisory until 4 am edt Friday for maz019.

Wind advisory until 6 am edt Friday for maz007-015-016-018>021.

Ri... Tropical storm warning for riz008.

High surf advisory until 6 pm edt Friday for riz006-007.

Wind advisory until 6 am edt Friday for riz005>007.

Marine... Tropical storm warning for anz231>235-237-250-254>256.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Friday for anz230-236-251.

Synopsis... Wtb jwd
near term... Wtb thompson
short term... Wtb
long term... Jwd
aviation... Wtb jwd thompson
marine... Wtb jwd thompson
tides coastal flooding... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 46 mi49 min 75°F 73°F1015 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 48 mi49 min N 8 G 15 71°F 68°F1013.7 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT3 mi46 minNE 910.00 miOvercast76°F59°F56%1015.9 hPa
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT13 mi44 minNNE 12 G 2010.00 miFair75°F57°F54%1015.4 hPa
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA17 mi44 minNNE 910.00 miA Few Clouds78°F62°F58%1016 hPa
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA21 mi99 minENE 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F57°F51%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from BDL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE13N12NE12NE13N16N11N11N12N12N12N10N11N13
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2 days agoN5N5NE4E4E4N3N3CalmN5N4N5NE8N8N11N9N11NE13NE10NE14N12N10NE11
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for South Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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South Hartford
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Thu -- 03:40 AM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:43 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:00 PM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.81.62.22.32.11.91.51.20.80.40.100.61.52.22.52.42.11.71.410.60.2

Tide / Current Tables for Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Hartford
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Thu -- 03:46 AM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:41 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:06 PM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.81.62.12.32.11.91.51.20.80.40.10.10.61.42.12.52.42.11.81.410.60.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.