Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith River, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 7:26PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 2:15 AM PDT (09:15 UTC) Moonrise 6:19PMMoonset 6:31AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 821 Pm Pdt Tue Mar 19 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. Conditions will remain relatively light through Wednesday afternoon, then a compact but robust low is expected to produce gusty south winds and very steep seas Wednesday night through Thursday evening. Another round of gusty south winds and steep to very steep seas is expected with a frontal passage on Friday. Winds will diminish but long period west swell will likely produce rough bar conditions and high seas later Friday into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith River CDP, CA
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location: 41.93, -124.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 200312
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
812 pm pdt Tue mar 19 2019

Discussion 20 00z NAM in.

The transition to a more active weather pattern is now underway.

An upper trough is undercutting the ridge over the western u.S. And
western canada. The first front associated with the trough is
approaching the coast from the southwest, and it will move onshore
tonight. Precipitation hasn't started yet, but most of the CWA will
get some precipitation from this system between tonight and
Wednesday night, with the exception of northern klamath and lake
counties. Wednesday will be cooler, with highs 5-10 degrees lower
than the Tuesday highs. It will be a bit breezy over the ridges,
east side, and shasta valley, but no advisories are anticipated at
this time. Snow levels will start off around 6000 feet and drop to
around 5000 feet after the front moves through.

Showers will diminish Wednesday night, but some light activity
will persist into Thursday.

A long wave trough will remain offshore for the next several days,
but it will go through a cycle. It will appear to move onshore in
a weakened state, then short waves diving down the backside of
the trough will dig a new one offshore. Each of the troughs that
move onshore will push a weak front onshore ahead of it.

One such trough will move onshore Friday night, and the associated
front will move onshore Friday. This front will have more
precipitation with it, but it still will not be a major rain snow
maker, just a spring storm with mostly "beneficial" precipitation.

Snow levels will hover between 5000 and 6000 feet before dropping
to 4000 feet Friday night. The highest passes like lake of the
woods and cedar pass will get a few inches of snow. Crater lake
could get 6 to 9 inches while siskiyou summit may only see a
dusting.

Long term discussion from the Tuesday afternoon afd... Saturday
23 march through Wednesday 27 mar 2019... Following Friday night's
front, an upper trough axis will move through the CWA Saturday.

As the front pushes through the great basin, steadier
precipitation across far SE sections in the morning will end,
while most other areas have a brief break post-front. Showers are
expected to re-develop as instability increases later Saturday
morning and Saturday afternoon. There could be some potent showers
out there, especially along and west of the cascades, but model
thunder parameters are not that impressive at this time.

Showers should end with the loss of instability Saturday evening,
then short wave ridging builds in overnight Saturday into Sunday.

The air mass doesn't look cold enough to have a large impact on
agriculture, with forecasted low temperatures in the low to mid 30s
for the west side valleys Sunday morning.

With the ridge in place Sunday, overall, dry, mild weather is
expected with highs in the low to mid 60s west of the cascades and
in the low to mid 50s over the east side. Locally breezy conditions
may develop in the afternoon.

The next front offshore will approach the coast Sunday night, then
move onshore Monday. There should be a period of gusty south to
southeast winds in advance of the front, especially in the typical
locations like the shasta valley, southern end of the rogue valley
and over the east side. While a period of steadier precipitation
will likely accompany the front, especially along and west of the
cascades, it doesn't appear to be a big rain-maker at this time.

Broad SW flow aloft will set up Monday night with another
disturbance offshore expected to move into the area Tuesday.

There is a reasonable amount of spread in the guidance with respect
to this system, with some models taking it north into our area, but
others keeping it farther south with most of the heavier
precipitation directed into california. Have gone with a blend of
solutions here, but this still keeps the best precipitation across
our southern and western zones. Either way, we'll maintain an
unsettled weather pattern into mid-next week with temperatures
fairly close to seasonal averages. -spilde

Aviation For the 20 00z tafs... Ceilings areVFR with breezy
southerly low level winds early this evening. These mid and high
level clouds are in advance of a low that will weaken as it moves
north across the area on Wednesday. There is at least a chance of
light showers across the area late tonight through Wednesday
afternoon and conditions will mainly remainVFR. But, MVFR may
accompany more frequent, occasionally moderate, showers in siskiyou
county into josephine and curry counties. There is also a slight
chance of a thunderstorm or two to develop west of the cascades on
Wednesday afternoon. -dw

Marine Updated 800 pm pdt Tuesday, 19 march 2019... A frontal
system will move north to just to the south of the region by
Wednesday evening. Conditions should remain relatively calm
throughout this time.

This compact surface low will push north along the coastline
Wednesday evening through Thursday. Timing and strength of this low
remains uncertain, but there is the potential for rapidly
deteriorating conditions Wednesday night, with very steep seas and
gusty south winds approaching or possibly reaching gale force.

The low will slowly make its way north through Thursday afternoon. A
large scale frontal system is then set to arrive shortly afterwards,
producing another round of gusty south winds and steep to very steep
seas Friday.

Following frontal passage, long period west swell of around 15 feet
at 15 seconds is expected to build into the area late Friday into
Saturday, producing rough bar conditions and heavy surf. Seas will
then gradually subside Sunday into Sunday night. This improvement
will be brief with another front likely to arrive early next week.

-bpn dw

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Hazardous seas warning from 8 am to 11 pm
pdt Thursday for pzz350-356-370.

Hazardous seas warning from 11 pm Wednesday to 11 pm pdt
Thursday for pzz376.

15 15 16


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 10 mi25 min NNW 3.9 G 5.8 56°F 53°F7 ft1010.8 hPa56°F
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 13 mi33 min N 5.1 G 5.1 53°F 54°F1009.9 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 58 mi27 min N 6 G 7

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA10 mi79 minN 04.00 miFair with Haze49°F42°F77%1010.4 hPa
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR11 mi19 minN 010.00 miOvercast52°F35°F53%1011.9 hPa

Wind History from CEC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7S5S6S6S4NW6NW7NW53E3NE4CalmCalmE3CalmNE3CalmNW4
1 day agoCalmS4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmSW4S7S5SW74W6S7S7S5NW3W3S3CalmCalmS6SE3Calm
2 days agoSE6CalmE3E3CalmCalmN4N5N6--N7--N6NW6S5S6S5S4SE3SE3CalmCalmSE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
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Wed -- 05:50 AM PDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:20 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:30 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:49 AM PDT     7.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:20 PM PDT     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:43 PM PDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 07:19 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:29 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.86.45.33.82.41.31.11.62.94.66.27.37.675.63.71.70.1-0.7-0.50.62.34.36

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:46 AM PDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:20 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:30 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:48 AM PDT     7.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:16 PM PDT     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:43 PM PDT     Full Moon
Wed -- 07:19 PM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:28 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.86.45.23.72.31.31.11.734.66.27.37.66.95.53.61.60.1-0.7-0.50.72.44.46

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.