Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 5:08 AM   Moonset 8:44 PM

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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013.thunderstorms over the waters - . Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible - .keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat - .lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414

PZZ300 847 Am Pdt Wed May 8 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - A thermal trough will bring moderate to strong north winds and steep to very steep seas through tonight. Winds will be strongest south of cape blanco. The thermal trough will weaken Thursday, but lingering steep seas are possible. Lighter winds and seas expected Friday into the weekend.

FXUS66 KMFR 081609 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 909 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024

DISCUSSION
Made some minor updates to the forecast for this morning. First was to cancel the Freeze Warning early. Freezing temperatures were observed in portions of the Shasta/Scott/Applegate Valleys, but for areas in the Illinois Valley, gusty east to northeast winds kept temperatures elevated overnight. Some freezing temperatures were also observed in the outskirts of Jackson County, but temperatures have already risen this morning, so the Freeze Warning was cancelled early.

There is some lingering cloud cover in the Umpqua Basin and across portions of Lake County, but this will gradually dissipate over the next few hours leading to sunny skies across the region this afternoon. Temperatures will trend warmer today under strengthening high pressure aloft and a strengthening thermal trough at the surface. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer today compared to recent days, nearing values more typical for this time of year. Expect some gusty north to northeast winds today under this pattern, and the Chetco Effect will bring some warmer temperatures to the Brookings area this afternoon (low to mid 70s). Forecast updates included tweaking temperatures by a few degrees for this afternoon as well as nudging winds towards the latest guidance.

While temperatures will be near normal values today (upper 60s/low 70s west of Cascades, upper 50s/low 60s east), this will be last day through at least early next week for near normal temperatures.
A sharp warm up is in store for Thursday into the weekend with high temperatures reaching 10 to 15 degrees above normal. For more details on this, please see the previous discussion below. /BR-y

AVIATION
08/12Z TAFs...Expect VFR to prevail today, though areas of MVFR are possible in portions of the Umpqua Basin and Coquille Basin early this morning. These shouldn't last much longer than 16 or 17Z this morning. Expect gusty north to northeast winds again this afternoon, peaking to 20 to 25 kt inland and around 30 kt at North Bend, easing during the mid-late evening. -Spilde/Hermansen

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 852 AM PDT Wed May 8 2024/

Updated Marine Discussion.

MARINE
Updated 845 AM Wednesday, May 8, 2024
A strong thermal trough will persist through tonight. This will result in moderate to strong winds, with winds strongest south of Cape Blanco with gales and very steep seas. Winds will increase north of Cape Blanco later this afternoon into tonight. Wind speeds should remain on the high end of Small Craft, however very steep wind driven seas will result in Hazardous Seas Warning conditions for the all of the northern waters. The thermal trough will weaken Thursday, but lingering steep to very steep seas are possible. Lighter winds and seas expected Friday into the weekend. -Petrucelli

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures aren't dropping much this morning as dewpoints stay in the mid 30's across a lot of valleys west of the Cascades. The exception appears to be the Scott Valley with temperatures currently around 32 to 34 with dewpoints in the upper 20's. Other than the patchy freezing conditions across the forecast area this morning, concerns are minimal given the current temperatures.

High temperatures will trend about 10 to 15 degrees higher today compared to Tuesday as high pressure continues to build over southern Oregon and northern California. A thermal trough will strengthen along the southern Oregon coastline this morning with some north east flow developing along the coastal range. Brookings and Somes Bar in south western Siskiyou County will be the warm spots later today with both pushing into mid 70's with Somes Bar potentially hitting the 80's. Overall, this is pretty typical for temperatures this time of year as Medford's average high is 72.

Temperatures will continue to trend warmer by Thursday as high pressure strengthens off the coast and winds becomes more widespread out of the east. This should result in further bump in temperatures with the most notable jump around Roseburg and North Bend with an anticipated high of 83 and 75 degrees respectively on Thursday. This warm up will push highs well above their normals for this time of year.

The thermal trough will move farther inland on Friday with sea level pressure dropping about 10 mb east of the Cascades and the 1000-500 mb thickness' rising over locations farther to the east as well. These days are usually some pretty warm days and the temperature forecast shows this with some highs potentially hitting 90 degrees. The NBM gives Medford a 15% chance of hitting 90 and Roseburg a 40% chance of hitting 90 on Friday. Not much will change on Saturday, although the temperatures might trend down a degree or two. It's worth noting that the NWS' heat risk algorithm is showing an elevated heat risk for populated areas on Saturday, perhaps due to the unusually warm high temperatures for this time of year. Given that low temperatures are falling into the mid 50's, this elevated risk seems overdone.

Towards the start of next week, the NBM is predicting a 5% chance of precipitation across sections of northern California as a weak short wave could be moving through around Sunday evening or Monday evening. To elevate the thunderstorm threat, we pushed the probability of precipitation higher for those times. Any shortwave this time of year will have that threat of kicking off thunderstorms around the forecast area.

Towards the middle of next week it appears high pressure will still remains in control. Temperatures have a higher probability being warmer than normal versus cooler than normal for the middle of May.

-Smith

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370.

Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376.

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Brookings
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Wed -- 06:03 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:08 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:42 AM PDT     -1.87 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:13 PM PDT     5.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:25 PM PDT     2.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:24 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:45 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon, Tide feet

Crescent City
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Wed -- 06:03 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:08 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:38 AM PDT     -1.87 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:12 PM PDT     5.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:21 PM PDT     2.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California, Tide feet

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Medford, OR,