Saturday, July21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith River, CA

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7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 8:45PM Saturday July 21, 2018 8:08 PM PDT (03:08 UTC) Moonrise 2:42PMMoonset 12:39AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 223 Pm Pdt Sat Jul 21 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Offshore high pressure and a thermal trough along the coast will continue through this evening. The thermal trough will weaken tonight into Sunday with north winds and seas gradually diminishing. Calmer conditions are expected for most of next week with moderate north winds that should remain below small craft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith River, CA
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location: 41.93, -124.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 220034
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
534 pm pdt Sat jul 21 2018
updated aviation section

Discussion Smoke from area wildfires continues to impact mainly
the the southwestern portion of the forecast area this afternoon,
with similar coverage and generally worse air quality than
yesterday at this time. We maintain an air quality ALERT through
early next week, and this may very well be extended further,
pending fire behavior. Winds are northerly and gusty again this
afternoon, especially in portions of the coast range and in the
illinois valley. Here we have a red flag warning in effect through
the afternoon due to gusty winds and low humidity. Days of
moderate to strong north winds west of the cascades (especially
towards the coast) will come to an end tonight and Sunday as the
thermal trough weakens and moves inland. Winds will switch at the
immediate coast near brookings to southerly and allow for some
marine stratus and fog to affect the coast. Further inland, winds
will still be northerly Sunday afternoon but not as strong.

Thunderstorm chances enter the picture on Sunday, thanks to energy
moving up from the south and increasing moisture and instability.

Models have ebbed and flowed in terms of how favorable the
environment will be on Sunday for thunderstorms. The environment is
not as unstable, and we don't have the strong trigger like we did
last Sunday, so it's a very different situation than the event
that brought thousands of lightning strikes to the forecast area.

Add the fact that we'll have some smoke that will likely limit
surface instability... And the picture becomes pretty fuzzy. We've
taken the consensus of guidance, and what we're expecting tomorrow
are mostly isolated thunderstorms, with a few areas that could
bump up to scattered coverage. We are aware that fuels
(vegetation) in the area are in record territory for dryness, so
it won't take many lightning strikes to cause fires. So we've
issued a red flag warning for tomorrow for mainly the siskiyous
southward and cascades eastward. Confidence is this warning is
lower than normal because of the aforementioned added variables.

Please see the fire weather discussion below for more details on
that aspect of the forecast.

The thunderstorm threat does diminish but won't go away Monday and
Tuesday. There will still be weak shortwave energy moving up from
the south and some instability and moisture. We've kept slight
chances mainly from the siskiyous south and cascades east.

Regarding nighttime thunderstorms, we haven't identified any
periods that are favorable enough to add them to the forecast.

Sunday night there is a touch of upper level instability and some
shortwave energy in the vicinity, so this will need to be looked
at.

Next... Heat. We're in the climatologically hottest time of the year
now, and an upper ridge building from the southeast will bump our
clear air temperatures up to 10 degrees above normal for this time
of year. I use the term "clear air" because we know that smoke in
areas will probably keep the temperatures lower than the potential
warmest readings that models are predicting. In areas where we
expect the heaviest smoke, we've kept forecast temperatures below
guidance for now. Other areas, like much of the east side, mount
shasta, and the umpqua basin, we have kept in line with guidance. We
decided to issue an excessive heat watch today because we're
expecting a long-duration heat wave, and the impacts from the heat
could be exacerbated by smoke. Subsequent shifts can examine another
day of observations and how much smoke has impacted high
temperatures, and they can help determine which areas will or won't
need to be upgraded to an excessive heat warning.

Models suggest some cooling by late next week, but it doesn't look
significant at this time.

Aviation For the 22 00z tafs... Wildfire smoke continues over
most of the inland valleys west of the cascades and south of the
umpqua divide. Lower visibilities along with MVFR conditions will
exist near these fires tonight into Sunday. There's a chance
visibilities could be reduced further tonight (ifr) as smoke settles
into the valleys.

At the coast north of CAPE blanco, north winds will be gusty this
evening at north bend with gusts to 35 kts andVFR conditions.

Onshore flow is expected to increase enough there later tonight for
marine stratus to form. Have lowered ceilings to MVFR around 08z,
then ifr around 13z. Conditions should improve around or after 16z.

East of the cascades and inland north of the fires,VFR will prevail
for the TAF period.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop in portions of northern
california and over the east side late Sunday afternoon evening.

-spilde

Marine Updated 200 pm pdt Saturday 21 july 2018... The latest
surface analysis shows the thermal trough still situated along the
coast. This in combination with strong offshore high pressure has
allowed moderate to strong north winds to continue over most of the
waters. Winds are expected to be strongest south of gold beach and
between 10 and 40 nm from shore. It's in this area where winds will
be close to or exceeding gales. Elsewhere seas will be steep and
wind driven, especially south of port orford. There's good agreement
the thermal trough will weaken tonight with winds gradually
diminishing. However small craft conditions for winds and seas will
still affect most of the waters, except withing 3 to 5 nm from
shore.

Calmer conditions are expected for most of with moderate winds
expected to remain below small craft as the thermal trough weakens
further and moves onshore. -petrucelli

Fire weather Updated 200 pm pdt Saturday 21 july 2018... Red
flag conditions over north-south oriented valleys on the west
side will moderate later today. After that, the primary concern
is thunderstorms. The best day for thunderstorm coverage will
be Sunday, when available moisture, surface heating, and an
upper level trigger will combine for the most optimal conditions.

High level haines indices will be 5 over the west side, but mid-
level haines may be 6 in some locations. Ongoing fires may become
plume dominated at times. Moisture will gradually diminish Monday
and Tuesday, and there isn't a trigger Monday and a weak one
Tuesday. Therefore, expect isolated thunderstorm coverage at best on
those days. By Wednesday, the southwest u.S. High will be far enough
west to cut off the monsoonal moisture, so thunderstorms are not in
the forecast from Wednesday on. It will be hot and dry inland Monday
through Thursday, especially in smoke-free areas.

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Red flag warning from 11 am to 11 pm pdt Sunday for orz621>625.

Red flag warning until 9 pm pdt this evening for orz619-620.

Excessive heat watch from Monday morning through Wednesday
evening for orz023-025.

Excessive heat watch from Monday morning through Wednesday
evening for orz024-026.

Ca... Red flag warning from 11 am to 11 pm pdt Sunday for
caz280>282-284-285.

Excessive heat watch from Monday morning through Wednesday
evening for caz080>082.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 5 pm pdt Sunday
for pzz356-370-376.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 2 am to 5 pm pdt
Sunday for pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 2 am pdt Sunday for pzz356-376.

Small craft advisory until 2 am pdt Sunday for pzz350.

Gale warning until 2 am pdt Sunday for pzz376.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 10 mi79 min N 19 G 23 54°F 50°F9 ft1014.2 hPa (+0.0)
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 13 mi45 min SSW 8.9 G 15 57°F 59°F1014.8 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 58 mi39 min NW 12 G 24 63°F 47°F1017.9 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA10 mi73 minS 1110.00 miOvercast60°F51°F72%1015.3 hPa
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR11 mi73 minN 09.00 miOvercast64°F52°F65%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from CEC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE43NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3Calm3S5SW5SW7S8CalmNW6N9NW6SW4S11S14
1 day agoCalmS9S7CalmSE4SW3N3NE3N3N6N4N5N11N15N16
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2 days agoS8S9S8S8SE5CalmCalmSE4S5S4SE3S3CalmS66N13
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Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
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Sat -- 01:39 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:58 AM PDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:59 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:02 AM PDT     4.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:21 PM PDT     2.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:42 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:50 PM PDT     6.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:46 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.311.322.93.84.44.64.53.93.32.72.32.42.93.84.95.96.66.86.45.54.3

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:39 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:54 AM PDT     1.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:01 AM PDT     4.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:17 PM PDT     2.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:41 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:49 PM PDT     6.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:45 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.211.322.93.84.44.64.43.93.32.72.32.433.94.95.96.66.86.45.54.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.