Sunday, April22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith River, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:04PM Saturday April 21, 2018 11:55 PM PDT (06:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:11AMMoonset 12:22AM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 853 Pm Pdt Sat Apr 21 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A thermal trough will remain in place through Sunday. This will result in strong and gusty north winds. The strongest winds and steepest seas are expected south of bandon with very steep seas and areas of gale force winds expected. North winds will gradually weaken late Sunday night into Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith River, CA
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location: 41.93, -124.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 220401
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
901 pm pdt Sat apr 21 2018

Update Warm dry weather will continue through much of next
week. Some updates were made to temperatures for tomorrow, but
other than that current forecast is on track, and the main
challenge will be determining just how high temperatures will get,
and assessing the thunderstorm potential over the east side during
the second half of next week. See previous discussion for more
information. -m&m

Aviation 22 00z TAF cycle...VFR and clear skies will continue
over through much of the next 24 hours for all TAF sites. Strong
north winds continue along the coast, and should subside after
midnight. There is a chance for marine stratus to develop at the
coast, north of CAPE blanco, umpqua basin and illinois valley
towards daybreak Sunday as a weak disturbance approaches the
area. Confidence is not high enough to put the lower conditions in
the north bend and roseburg tafs, but we can't quite rule it out.

-petrucelli m&m

Marine Updated 855 pm pdt Saturday 21 april 2018... Offshore high
pressure and a thermal trough along the coast is bringing gusty
north winds over most of the area. Winds are expected to be
strongest over the southern waters where gales are expected from
bandon south. High res models show stronger winds approaching closer
to the coast from port orford south and it's possible gale force
winds could get withing 2 nm from shore.

Strong gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind driven seas
will continue through Sunday evening. There's good agreement winds
will be strongest from about gold beach south, with winds reaching
gale force. Also low end gales with gusts to 35 mph are expected
south of bandon to gold beach. Elsewhere small craft advisory
conditions are expected. Please see mwwmfr for more details.

Winds and seas will gradually lower late Sunday night and Monday as
the thermal trough builds north then weakens late Monday. However,
steep wind driven seas will linger Sunday night into Monday across
portions of the waters, mainly beyond 10 nm from shore and south of
cape blanco.

Seas will increase some Tuesday morning as west swell moves in, but
there is good agreement seas will remain below 10 feet. Seas will
then diminish some Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Meanwhile
winds will be light to moderate during the same time frame as a
thermal trough builds north along the oregon coast.

-petrucelli sven

Prev discussion issued 243 pm pdt Sat apr 21 2018
short term... A sunny and seasonably mild day is in progress for
the majority of us today. Over the umpqua basin, this morning's
stratus has broken into scattered cumulus. Winds have been fairly
light, but they are picking up at the coast, and we will probably
see some of our typical north-northwest breezes later this
afternoon as onshore gradients remain relatively tight.

A rather benign shortwave upper trough will move through tonight.

We aren't expecting any precipitation with it, but it will help to
reinforce the marine layer over the coast and umpqua similar to
last night. The aforementioned cumulus are likely to congeal into
a stratus deck again tonight, and this stratus may penetrate a
little further inland than last night, but probably not all the
way into the rogue valley. As the trough scoots off to the east
tomorrow, we'll see mostly sunny skies again, and temperatures
will warm a few degrees compared to today.

The dramatic warming gets underway on Monday as an upper ridge
develops over the area and a low level thermal trough develops
along the coast. This will drive temperatures above normal with
highs getting to around the 80f mark over inland west side
valleys and around 70 on the east side. With the upper ridge
becoming centered over the cascades and the thermal trough right
at the coast, the setup isn't quite right for the coast to get
really warm Monday, but we should see comfortable conditions there
by most people's standards. The thermal trough will produce
offshore winds over the mountains, especially Monday morning.

The ridge amplifies and slides just east of us Tuesday, and the
thermal trough moves inland from the coast. This will result in
further warming with inland west side highs in the low to mid-80s
and widespread 70s on the east side. The coast will likely cool a
little as the flow becomes onshore. -wright
long term... Wednesday 12z onward...

the focus for this discussion is the above average temperatures from
Wednesday into Thursday. Right now models are forecasting 850 mb
temperatures around 17 - 20 c during Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon. This is abnormally warm for this time of year and
temperatures are near the 95th to 99th percentile for late april. A
few records will be at risk east of the cascades. Wednesday we may
tie or come close to breaking records by 1-2 degrees. Medford is
the only one that looks really out of reach, but all the others are
within reach.

High cirrus clouds always seem to be the one thing that throws a
wrench into the temperature forecast. Right now the ECMWF shows
high clouds shouldn't be an issue on Wednesday, but should start to
build in during Thursday as the low approaches the coast. Decided
to drop the high temperatures west of the cascades to guidance or
slightly below guidance.

Finally, the low moves into the coast on Thursday night and Friday.

We'll have a chance for storms Friday afternoon and evening east of
the cascades. The bulk of the instability is east of the cascades
and both ECMWF and the GFS are initiating convection in that region.

-smith

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt Sunday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Gale warning until 11 pm pdt Sunday for pzz350-356-370-376.

Msc trw czs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 10 mi65 min N 25 G 31 52°F 51°F10 ft1022 hPa (+0.7)
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 13 mi43 min SSE 8.9 G 11 51°F 52°F1022.5 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 58 mi43 min N 8.9 G 13 48°F 50°F1026.8 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA10 mi2 hrsN 8 G 167.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F46°F86%1023 hPa
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR11 mi59 minN 09.00 miFair49°F46°F90%1024.6 hPa

Wind History from CEC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NE3N3E4NE4NE3NE3NE4NE5N8N13
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1 day agoS8S7S5E3E4CalmE5CalmCalmCalmW7W5CalmNW9NW10NW11N9N7N7NW9N4N4N3NW5
2 days agoE5E3CalmCalmNE3NE3CalmNE4N3NE6NW9N15
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Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
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Sun -- 02:18 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:44 AM PDT     6.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:25 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:02 PM PDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:15 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:46 PM PDT     First Quarter
Sun -- 06:58 PM PDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.23.94.75.66.26.35.94.93.62.20.8-0.1-0.4-0.10.71.93.24.45.15.35.14.53.83.3

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:17 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:43 AM PDT     6.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:25 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:58 AM PDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:15 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:46 PM PDT     First Quarter
Sun -- 06:57 PM PDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:05 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.23.94.85.66.26.35.94.93.62.10.8-0.1-0.4-0.10.823.34.45.15.35.14.53.83.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.