Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith River, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 6:29PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 11:12 AM PDT (18:12 UTC) Moonrise 1:43PMMoonset 11:25PM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 803 Am Pdt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Winds will generally remain below 15 knots through at least Friday. Persistent long period southerly swell will continue through the week. A long period west to northwest swell is expected to arrive Wednesday into Thursday, with hazardous bar and surf conditions becoming a concern. SWell will begin to diminish Thursday night as the period shortens, then seas will subside through Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith River, CA
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location: 41.93, -124.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 161557
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
857 am pdt Tue oct 16 2018

Discussion The morning balloon sounding from medford shows the
continued dry air mass, with humidity of 10 percent at 5000 ft
msl. This is, amazingly, not as dry as yesterday morning which
featured 4 percent humidity at the same level. High terrain winds
are also trending lower compared to Monday morning but are still
gusty. Ridgetops in the cascades are registering gusts in the 20s
(mph) this morning, and winds are gusting into the 30s in the
siskiyous.

This dry air mass will continue through the week, and this will be
challenging for existing fires (klondike, stukel). Smoke will
result, and we've added some smoke in the forecast for the coast
south of CAPE blanco.

Please see the previous discussion below for more details on the
warm and dry weather this week and then the rain chances next
week. Keene

Aviation For the 16 12z tafs...VFR will persist through this
evening across most the area. Areas of lifr ifr CIGS and visibility
are expected along the coast from CAPE blanco south this morning,
with clearing toVFR expected late this morning. Areas of lifr ifr
cigs may return again to the coast tonight. Inland, expectVFR
conditions through the TAF period except for local visibility
reductions from smoke in northern curry county and southern coos
county, for areas downwind of the klondike wildfire. -cc

Marine Updated 300 am pdt Tuesday 16 october 2018... Winds will
generally remain below 15 kts through at least Friday. Today,
persistent long period southerly swell of around 3 feet may produce
rough bar conditions at brookings and elevated surf at port orford.

Aside from this persistent southerly swell, conditions will remain
relatively calm today.

Wednesday into Thursday, a longer period west to northwest swell at
16 to 18 seconds will build into the coastal waters. This will
combine with the aforementioned smaller long period southerly swell
and could make for hazardous bar conditions Wednesday into Thursday.

Overall, wave heights will remain below 10 feet as this is only a 7-
8 foot swell. But, given the longer period swell, surf conditions
could be a concern as well. Breaker heights of 10 to 12 feet are
possible Wednesday into Thursday and this could catch some beach-
goers off guard as this is a bit higher than what has been typical
for the past few weeks. As a result, a beach hazards statement
remains in effect. Swell will begin to diminish Thursday night as
the period shortens, then seas will subside through Saturday night.

Early next week, a front may move into the coast and west swell
dominated seas may increase. -cc

Fire weather Updated 230 am pdt Tuesday, 16 october 2018...

a very dry air mass remains in place today with breezy to gusty
easterly winds over the ridges. Today, easterly winds are still
expected to remain strong enough over ridges for red flag warning
conditions to continue for portions of western siskiyou county and
the siskiyous, but they will be lighter than they have been the last
two mornings. Winds over these areas will diminish below critical
levels by tonight, if not sooner. Tonight and Wednesday morning,
breezy east winds are expected to persist over the cascades with
mainly light east winds over other ridges. Moderate to locally poor
recoveries are expected over the ridges tonight into Wednesday
morning.

As a light easterly flow persist into the weekend, daytime rhs are
likely to remain low across the area along with moderate to locally
poor recoveries on the ridges. Low daytime rhs today are expected to
nudge upward through Thursday, however. Light east winds could
increase some again Friday night into Saturday, though they are
likely to be much lighter than has been observed the last two days.

Forecasts from the GFS indicate a pressure gradient around 5 mb over
the area Saturday morning versus the previous couple days with 16mb
analyzed by the GFS for Sunday morning and 12mb for Monday and 8mb
today.

Then a pattern change is expected to bring higher rhs and, possibly,
some rain early next week. -cc

Prev discussion issued 321 am pdt Tue oct 16 2018
discussion... Cold temperatures remain the main feature for the
forecast period across southern oregon and northern california.

We're currently watching temperatures fall below freezing in the
west side valleys, so the freeze warning and frost advisory will
likely verify this morning. Medford and roseburg will likely see
some frost this morning given the current trend in temperatures
compared to yesterday.

As for Tuesday night, temperatures are expected to trend upwards
a few degrees, so more frost is probable for the west side
valleys, but we'll probably steer clear of freezing temperatures
in the usual cold spots in the illinois and applegate valleys.

Aside from the cold overnight temperatures, we're actually
expecting high temperatures to be around 10 degrees above average
for most of the week with this ridge of high pressure sticking
around. The pattern is rather stagnant, but that will probably
change around next Tuesday when both models are showing a low over
the gulf of alaska and precipitation arriving in the pacific
northwest.

The last thing we want to touch on is the klondike fire becoming
active yet again. People will probably wonder where the smoke will
be heading for the next few days. This east off shore flow will
likely continue for today and into Wednesday, so the coast will
see the smoke the next two days. However, the winds will shift
Thursday allowing for the smoke to funnel into the west side
valleys and northern california.

The good news here is that hope is on the horizon. Both models
are showing a minor atmospheric river type event around next
Tuesday into next Thursday as mentioned above. This should result
in impactful measurable precipitation occuring along the coast up
to the cascades between next Tuesday and next Thursday.

-smith

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Beach hazards statement from late tonight through Wednesday
evening for orz021-022.

Frost advisory until 9 am pdt this morning for orz023-024-026.

Red flag warning until 8 pm pdt this evening for orz621.

Freeze warning until 9 am pdt this morning for orz024-026.

Ca... Frost advisory until 9 am pdt this morning for caz080.

Red flag warning until 8 pm pdt this evening for caz280.

Freeze warning until 9 am pdt this morning for caz081-082.

Pacific coastal waters... Beach hazards statement from late tonight through Wednesday
evening for pzz350-356.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 10 mi82 min NNW 9.7 G 12 51°F 52°F3 ft1021.6 hPa (+0.4)
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 13 mi42 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 52°F 55°F1021.4 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 58 mi42 min SE 1 G 1.9 52°F 51°F1022.3 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA10 mi16 minNNW 104.00 miFair with Haze55°F48°F80%1022 hPa
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR11 mi16 minN 06.00 miFair with Haze60°F43°F53%1023.2 hPa

Wind History from CEC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4NW4NW5N6N6N7N7N5NE3N4SE3CalmCalmE3E3CalmN3N3NE6N4N5CalmN5N6
1 day agoE9
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SW6W7SW7S12S11S11S10S7S8SE7S4S5S5CalmCalmN4N4CalmCalmNE4E3E3E4
2 days agoN10
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Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:51 AM PDT     5.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:31 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:02 AM PDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 12:01 PM PDT     3.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:42 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:28 PM PDT     5.55 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.322.93.94.65.15.25.14.74.23.93.83.94.34.75.25.55.55.14.53.62.61.8

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31)
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:49 AM PDT     5.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:30 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:02 AM PDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 11:55 AM PDT     3.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:41 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:24 PM PDT     5.54 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.3233.94.75.15.254.74.23.93.83.94.34.85.25.55.55.14.43.52.51.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.