Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith River, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:59PM Thursday April 18, 2019 9:19 AM PDT (16:19 UTC) Moonrise 6:22PMMoonset 5:31AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 903 Am Pdt Thu Apr 18 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. North winds will increase some south of cape blanco today as high pressure gradually weakens over the coastal waters area. Some fog is expected from brookings southward this morning, and then moving in from the west mainly toward the coos coast this afternoon and evening. A disorganized cold front will move through tonight into Friday. Showers then develop and increase Friday evening through Saturday morning as a stronger secondary cold front moves through. This will cause north winds to increase bringing steep to very steep seas. High pressure will rebuild Sunday into Monday causing winds and seas to diminish.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith River, CA
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location: 41.93, -124.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 181618
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
918 am pdt Thu apr 18 2019

Update
Updates this morning were to refine the sky cover forecast for this
morning through this evening. Also added some patchy fog to the
forecast, mainly over the coastal waters. Btl

Discussion
Today will be the warmest day of the week, and, likely through
Monday of next week as highs reach 15 to 20 degrees above calendar
day normals.

Tomorrow through Saturday a trough of low pressure will move in
with cooler temperatures and showers and some thunderstorms
across the area before the weather dries out again Sunday into
Monday. Please see the previous forecast discussion for further
details. Btl

Aviation For the 18 12z tafs... Along the coast and in the umpqua
basin... Local ifr CIGS vsbys in the coastal valleys and near koth
will clear toVFR by late Thursday morning. The lower conditions
will be more widespread when they return Thursday evening, spreading
into the umpqua basin Thursday night, likely affecting krbg. Over
the remainder of the area...VFR conditions will prevail through
Thursday night.

Marine Updated 200 am pdt Thursday 18 april 2019... High pressure
will weaken tonight. A weak front will move through Friday, then a
thermal trough will develop near the coast. This will bring strong
north winds and steep to very steep choppy seas to the area Friday
night through Saturday night. A hazardous seas watch has been issued
for most of the area south of CAPE arago during this interval, but
the conditions will be increasing worse going south. Winds will
also approach gale force south of CAPE blanco, but the more likely
event is the hazardous seas. The trough will weaken Saturday night
and winds and seas will subside. High pressure will rebuild over the
area Sunday into Monday.

Prev discussion issued 319 am pdt Thu apr 18 2019
short term...

the warmest day of the week will arrive later this afternoon
reinforcing the fact that spring is here and summer is not that
far away. Highs should reach the mid to lower 80's in valleys west
of the cascades and the 70's east of the cascades. These
temperatures are roughly 15 to 20 degrees above average in most
valley locations. Even with these abnormally warm temperatures,
we'll still be roughly 5 degrees short of record high temperatures
across the region.

As for Friday we'll see a cold front move into the region with a
chance for rain showers and perhaps some thunderstorms east of
the cascades and within the shasta valley. There isn't a massive
amount of instability out there, so thunderstorms should only
produce a few strikes if they are able to get going in the first
place. Upper level winds could really tear the cells apart before
they can start consistently put doing some lightning.

An upper level low will eventually make it's way into northern
california and southern oregon. Showers will become widespread
during the early hours of Saturday as this low pushes into the
region. Temperatures aloft will continue to cool and aid in
shower development. Again there is a slight chance for some
thunderstorms east of the cascades and around the shasta valley.

Shower coverage will decrease into the evening as the low kicks
through northern california. As for the precipitation, we're
expecting around 0.25 to 0.75 inches to fall east of the cascades
Friday and Saturday. Anyone venturing up mt shasta Saturday
morning should be prepared for wintry precipitation above 7000
feet. Although this is not a full blow winter storm, the weather
could very well cause problems for the unprepared.

-smith
long term... Issued 313 pm pdt Wed apr 17 2019
Sunday, april 21 through Wednesday, april 24...

on Sunday, models continue to show a break in the active pattern
with a weak ridge extending into the area and dry weather in
place. With this pattern, expect mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies on Sunday and mild to warm temperatures. High temperatures
on Sunday are forecast to be in the upper 60s to low 70s for most
inland valleys and in the upper 50s to near 60 at the coast.

Two additional fronts are forecast to move towards the pacific
northwest early next week. Current model and ensemble forecasts
indicate the upper ridge may strengthen slightly on Monday and keep
be best chance for precipitation well north of the area. So have
leaned towards mainly dry weather over the area on Monday. Then,
models and ensembles support somewhat higher chances for
precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday, showing a front moving
towards the region Tuesday and inland Wednesday. With the front and
a shortwave trough moving inland on Wednesday, there is instability,
so have included a slight chance for thunderstorms as well, mainly
from the cascades east and siskiyous south. Of note, there is still
significant variability in the model and ensemble forecasts
concerning the strength of the ridge and strength and timing of the
fronts Monday through Wednesday. So confidence is low in the
details of the forecast for showers or potential thunderstorms.

Will continue to monitor future model runs and adjust as needed.

-clarstrom
aviation... For the 18 12z tafs... Along the coast and in the umpqua
basin... Local ifr CIGS vsbys in the coastal valleys and near koth
will clear toVFR by late Thursday morning. The lower conditions
will be more widespread when they return Thursday evening, spreading
into the umpqua basin Thursday night, likely affecting krbg. Over
the remainder of the area...VFR conditions will prevail through
Thursday night.

Marine... Updated 200 am pdt Thursday 18 april 2019... High pressure
will weaken tonight. A weak front will move through Friday, then a
thermal trough will develop near the coast. This will bring strong
north winds and steep to very steep choppy seas to the area Friday
night through Saturday night. A hazardous seas watch has been issued
for most of the area south of CAPE arago during this interval, but
the conditions will be increasing worse going south. Winds will
also approach gale force south of CAPE blanco, but the more likely
event is the hazardous seas. The trough will weaken Saturday night
and winds and seas will subside. High pressure will rebuild over the
area Sunday into Monday.

-stockton

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Hazardous seas watch from Friday evening through late Saturday
night for pzz356-370-376.

Btl czs btl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 10 mi30 min 1.9 G 3.9 53°F7 ft1022.5 hPa
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 13 mi44 min N 4.1 G 4.1 51°F 54°F1022 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA10 mi24 minVar 39.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F54°F100%1021.8 hPa
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR11 mi24 minN 010.00 miFair60°F55°F84%1023.3 hPa

Wind History from CEC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8NW7NW10NW10N11NW11NW8N9N8N6N8NW8N4CalmCalmS7SE6SE3CalmCalmNW3NE4N33
1 day agoS10S7S7SW7W8W7W6NW6W6NW6NW3CalmN3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmN3NE3CalmN3N3N4
2 days agoSE8SE8SE12S13S13S12S13S21
G27
S20SW10S8S11SW7SW6SW7SW8SW7SW6S5SW6S6SW4SE4S9

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
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Thu -- 05:41 AM PDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:32 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:46 AM PDT     6.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:50 PM PDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:22 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:01 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.964.42.71.10.200.72.13.85.36.46.664.73.11.60.50.20.82.13.95.66.9

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31)
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:35 AM PDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:30 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:32 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:43 AM PDT     6.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:45 PM PDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:21 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:00 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:57 PM PDT     7.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.95.94.32.61.10.10.10.82.23.95.46.46.65.94.631.50.50.30.92.345.76.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.