Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rhinecliff, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:32PM Monday November 20, 2017 1:03 AM EST (06:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:33AMMoonset 7:24PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 927 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect until 6 am est Monday...
Overnight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of showers late this evening and early morning.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 927 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds southwest of the waters overnight, eventually offshore Monday into Monday night. High pressure departs to the east Tuesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday. Another high builds late week before next system impacts the area next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rhinecliff, NY
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location: 41.94, -73.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 200302
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1002 pm est Sun nov 19 2017

Synopsis
Blustery conditions will prevail through Monday with below
normal temperatures. Lake effect snow will develop tonight
impacting the western and central mohawk valley and schoharie
valley before shifting northward into the western and southern
adirondacks on Monday. Otherwise isolated to scattered showers
are expected elsewhere. Warmer weather returns briefly Tuesday
ahead of another cold front.

Near term through Monday
As of 1000 pm est, bumped up pops across portions of the mohawk
and schoharie valleys to account for recent snow shower
activity. Also freshened up the hourly temps and sent updates to
ndfd and web servers.

Prev disc...

as of 630 pm est, with wind gusts below criteria, we have let
the advisory expire at 6 pm. However, wind gusts of 20 to 30
mph are still possible during the near term period. No other
major changes were made to the forecast at this time.

Prev disc...

as of 330 pm est... While wind gust criteria is now
below advisory criteria, we continue to receive impacts from the
winds as we will leave the advisory in place at this time.

Please refer to the recent public information statement (pns)
and local storm reports (lsr) for additional details on wind
related impacts. H2o vapor loop shows the next short wave trough
approaching the region as upstream regional radar imagery
suggests an increase in convective activity. This activity is
also the result of increasing lake instability which will be the
main weather impact concern tonight. As has been discussed in
several afd's, highly favorable lake effect parameters will be
setting up tonight. Delta t's are expected to approach or exceed
20c and inversion heights per bufkit at utica near 10k feet
tonight. Wind trajectories average near 290 degrees which places
portions of the western mohawk valley and schoharie valley in a
favorable location for accumulating lake effect snow. However,
consistent band placement remains a bit in question as seen in
the 3kmnam and hrrr rap. This is likely due to additional short
waves seen in the h2o vapor loop upstream that may buckle the
flow a bit to reduce persistent lake bands. Hence our forecast
accumulations of 1" to as much as 4" overnight are expected to
be below headline criteria at this time. Outside of lake effect
areas, favorable upslope conditions and low level moist flow
should hold onto clouds across the terrain overnight. Lows will
be rather chilly as they should range from the teens across the
dacks to near freezing for the mid-hudson valley and southern
portions of litchfield county.

Short term Monday night
Residual upper wave impulses are expected to track east of the
region Monday morning. This should allow lake effect band(s) to
slide northward a bit in the morning and impact portions of the
mohawk valley, capital region, taconics and berks. Then the mean
flow quickly shifts toward the west-southwest by noon as
upstream warm advection begins to unfold. This too should cut
down on the instability across lake ontario and reduce the lake
inland extent through the afternoon. Otherwise, with broad moist
isentropic lift setting up, clouds will likely increase once
again across most of the region. Some light precipitation may
fall mainly across the higher terrain with upslope conditions
evolving. Highs should range from lower 30s across the dacks to
lower 40s for the mid-hudson valley which is a good blend of the
latest mos.

Monday night, good consensus favors taking the warm front and
lifting it northward through the night with ample drier air
advecting in on a southwest flow regime. So diminishing both any
precipitation and cloud coverage from south to north. Overnight
lows generally into the 20s for the entire region.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
An upper level shortwave and associated surface cold front will be
moving towards the region from the great lakes for Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Moisture with this northern stream feature
will be limited, but a band of rain or snow showers will accompany
the front as it moves across the region from west to east. Although
most valley areas will only see rain showers, some snow will be
possible at the higher elevations, but any accumulations looks
rather light due to the limited precip amounts. Low temps on Tuesday
night will mainly be in the 30s with temps on Wednesday only rising
slightly behind the front, with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Behind the front, there could be a brief shot of some lake-effect
snow showers for far western areas for Wednesday afternoon or
evening, but this should quickly end, as surface high pressure
slides towards the region from the midwest. As a result, mainly dry
weather is expected for Wed night and into thanksgiving day
(Thursday). Lows will be in the 20s and thanksgiving day highs will
be in the 30s to low 40s with a partly sunny sky.

A fast moving shortwave will slide across southern canada for
Thursday night. A few snow showers may brush into the adirondacks,
otherwise, this system will be too far north to have a big impact on
our weather. Another area of high pressure will continue dry and
quiet weather for Friday. Temps will continue to be fairly
seasonable, with lows in the 20s and highs on Friday into mid 30s to
mid 40s.

The weather will be a little more active for Friday night into the
weekend. A deepening trough will quickly shift from the northern
plains and great lakes towards the northeast for the weekend.

Although the main storm system will remain north of the region, a
strong surface cold front will allow for some rain showers by
Saturday. There could be a little mix or snow at the onset on
Friday night, but with this storm track, most areas will be seeing
mainly rain showers ahead of the approaching cold front. Behind the
front, cooler air will quickly move in, allowing any lingering
showers to changeover to snow showers for Saturday night. In
addition, some upslope flow and lake-effect snow showers will
develop for Sat night into Sunday as well, impacting mainly western
and high terrain areas. Also, gusty winds are expected behind the
storm system as well. Temps will be in the 30s and 40s for
Saturday, but only reach the upper 20s to mid 30s for most locations
on Sunday.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
With strong northwesterly winds in place this evening, wind
gusts of 20 to 30 mph are still possible for at least the next
few hours. Winds will slightly diminish overnight with gusts of
20 to 30 mph possible again tomorrow afternoon.

Lingering low-level moisture behind the front will continue to keep
bkn-ovc CIGS at 3500-5000 ft through the overnight hours. Most
valley sites (kalb kgfl kpou) should be generally beVFR, with
high end MVFR conditions expected at kpsf for a time this
evening before rising toVFR. Some more breaks in the clouds
may start to occur around kpou tonight, as downsloping off the
catskills allows for some more breaks there. Flying conditions
should continue to beVFR through the day tomorrow with just
sct- bkn CIGS around 4-5 kft.

In addition, a lake-effect band of snow showers off lake ontario
will be impacting parts of the mohawk valley overnight and into
tomorrow morning. It's possible that some snow showers from
this activity even reach into the capital region and berkshires
for around and after midnight, impacting kalb kpsf. Some
flurries may continue into tomorrow morning, as the band drifts
back northward, before dissipating by late morning.

Outlook...

Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thanksgiving day: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
Blustery conditions will prevail through Monday with below
normal temperatures. Lake effect snow will develop tonight
impacting the western and central mohawk valley and schoharie
valley before shifting northward into the western and southern
adirondacks on Monday. Otherwise isolated to scattered showers
are expected elsewhere. Warmer weather returns briefly Tuesday
ahead of another cold front.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems are expected on the main stem rivers for
the next several days.

Lake effect snow will develop by this evening impacting the
western and central mohawk valley and schoharie valley tonight
then shifting northward into the western and southern
adirondacks on Monday. While isolated to scattered showers are
expected elsewhere. Mainly fair weather is then expected the
rest of the week with unsettled weather expected for next
weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Bgm
near term... Bgm jvm
short term... Bgm
long term... Frugis
aviation... Frugis jvm
fire weather... Iaa bgm
hydrology... Iaa bgm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 6 mi93 min 38°F 1007 hPa33°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 66 mi51 min WNW 6 G 11 41°F 52°F1007.2 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 71 mi74 min W 19 G 25 42°F 2 ft34°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY21 mi70 minSW 810.00 miFair37°F26°F65%1007.2 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3S5SE3S6S3SW8SW16
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3SE4S7
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2 days agoW9W8NW6W9W7W8NW5NW11NW9
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NW14NW12NW6NW10W6W5CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:11 AM EST     3.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:37 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:25 PM EST     4.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:24 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:12 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.73.33.63.42.92.11.30.70.20.20.923.13.84.14.13.62.81.810.400.31.2

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Mon -- 02:42 AM EST     3.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:32 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:06 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:55 PM EST     4.40 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:24 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:43 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.43.23.73.73.42.61.710.50.20.51.52.73.74.24.44.13.42.41.50.70.200.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.