Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rhinecliff, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:13PM Thursday March 23, 2017 2:16 AM EDT (06:16 UTC) Moonrise 4:15AMMoonset 2:30PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1217 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt early this morning...
Overnight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening...then 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely...mainly after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less...then around 2 ft. Patchy fog in the daytime. Rain likely.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft...then 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the morning...then chance of rain at night.
ANZ300 1217 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will build over the great lakes moving more directly over the waters later today. The high will then pass to the east tonight. A warm front will approach on Friday and remains nearby through Saturday. A cold front will move through Saturday night. A series of systems will impact the area starting Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rhinecliff, NY
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location: 41.94, -73.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 230513
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
113 am edt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
Well-below normal temperatures will continue tonight as
readings drop into the teens and single digits. Temperatures
will gradually moderate tomorrow, before unsettled conditions
arrive for Friday into the upcoming weekend, with the potential
for a variety of precipitation types.

Near term /until 6 am this morning/
As of 110 am edt, skies remain clear across the region. There
remains a bit of wind from the northwest to north, which has
prevented temps from free falling in most areas thus far, with
the exception of portions of the western adirondacks, where
winds have trended to calm, allowing temps to drop off into the
zero to -5 range.

High pressure will continue to build into the region overnight,
allowing wind speeds to gradually decrease by daybreak. However,
before then, the north/northwest breeze should persist just
enough from the hudson valley east into western new england, and
into the eastern catskills, to prevent temps from dropping below
zero. So for most areas, temps will drop off into single
digits above and below zero to the lower teens. However, where
winds drop off, such as across portions of the adirondacks,
temps will fall into the -5 to -10 range, if not slightly
colder.

Short term /6 am this morning through 6 pm Friday/
Full sunshine and dry conditions should allow for temps to
rebound into the upper 30s for most valley locations with upper
20s for most higher elevations Thursday afternoon.

Thursday night, mostly clear and cold to start, then clouds
increase after midnight as strengthening mid level warm air
advection develops. There could be some light snow developing
around or just after sunrise, mainly for areas west of the
hudson river. Min temps should be reached early then begin
increasing as strong warm air advection ensues.

Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/
As stated in the previous excellent forecast discussion, a very
unsettled pattern through the entire long term period with plenty of
clouds, periods of light precipitation and daytime temperatures
averaging mainly below normal.

On Friday, not much change to the overall pattern as a surface warm
front will be lifting across the region from southwest to northeast.

The surface front, aided by decent warm air advection aloft and
isentropic lift, will produce a widespread area of precipitation
moving west to east. Initially, the precipitation will be in the
form of snow, but both warming temps aloft and in the boundary layer
will allow this precip to changeover to rain across most areas. A
few spots may see some sleet during the transition as well. QPF is
fairly light, so any snowfall amounts look minor, generally an inch
or two. Although the morning will start off in the teens and 20s,
temps will be quickly warming, reaching the mid 30s to mid 40s by
the early afternoon hours.

By the late afternoon and early evening hours, the best forcing will
be shifting north and east of the region, as the surface boundary
lifts northward. However, some lingering rain and drizzle will be
possible in some areas for Friday evening into Friday night,
especially across the higher elevations. Temps will be mainly steady
for Friday night as surface frontal boundary is expected to remain
north of our region.

The front will start to drop back south slowly across the area on
Saturday with some additional rain showers. Although southern areas
may see start off dry, the chance for precip will return throughout
the day. Ahead of the front, temps may briefly warm up into the 40s
(possibly some 50s for areas south of the capital region), before
dropping back down into the 30s behind the boundary. Some question
with respect to just how far south this front gets as the ECMWF is
the most aggressive with the surface high north of the st lawrence
than the GFS with the ggem somewhat inbetween.

As colder air works in behind the boundary, precip may start to
changeover to a wintry mix or some snow for Saturday night,
especially for northern and high terrain areas (along and north of
i90). This cold air will be driven southward into the region thanks
to a cold high pressure area passing across quebec and northern new
england. With forcing mainly limited to just the surface boundary,
precip amounts look fairly light, but a light accumulation of snow
and ice will be possible for Saturday night into Sunday morning, as
temps fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s across the area.

Once again, the front looks to return back north as a warm front on
Sunday, as surface low pressure moves across the ohio valley and
great lakes. Although warmer air aloft should move easily back into
the region, the low-level cold air may be a little tougher to
dislodge this time due to the nearby surface high pressure area.

Most areas should change back over to rain at some point on Sunday,
although some sheltered valley areas could see a more prolonged
period of sleet and/or freezing rain. Temperatures should return
back into the mid 30s to mid 40s across the area on Sunday.

The low pressure area will continue to move eastward-northeastward,
per global model consensus. However, the GFS is stronger with the
surface wave development over the great lakes region with the ecmwf
less aggressive yet offers a very soggy pattern with periods of light
rain/drizzle.

The other aspect to this forecast is with the snowpack in place and
occasional precipitation and milder air could be areas of fog
development. This would need to be addressed with future updates as
conditions become more certain.

Aviation /05z Thursday through Monday/
Vfr conditions with mainly clear skies expected through at least
06z/fri.

Northwest to north winds will decrease to 5-10 kt through
daybreak, then increase to 8-12 kt by mid morning into this
afternoon. Winds will then drop off to less than 5 kt Thursday
evening.

Have included mention of low level wind shear through at least
daybreak, as sfc winds decrease to 8 kt or less from the nw,
while winds around 2000 ft agl remain from the north/northwest
at 30-35 kt.

Outlook...

Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of ra.

Saturday: high operational impact. Likely ra.

Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of ra... Sn.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Likely ra... Sn.

Sunday night: high operational impact. Likely ra... Sn.

Monday: high operational impact. Likely ra.

Fire weather
A deep snow pack remains in place across eastern new york and
western new england. Temperatures will be below normal tonight
and tomorrow with a very cold air mass building over the
region. There is the potential for several rounds of
precipitation beginning early Friday morning and continuing
into next week, with a variety of precipitation types possible.

Hydrology
No precipitation is expected through tomorrow, with below
normal temperatures expected. There is a potential for several
rounds of precipitation Friday into the upcoming week, with a
variety of precipitation types possible. Precipitation amounts,
types, and temperatures are uncertain at this time, but it
appears temperatures will warm Friday and Saturday before
returning to below normal values for the second half of the
weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
website.

Aly watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Kl
near term... Kl/jpv/jvm
short term... Kl/jvm
long term... Frugis/bgm
aviation... Kl/jpv
fire weather... Kl/jvm
hydrology... Kl/jvm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 6 mi47 min 20°F 1031 hPa6°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 66 mi47 min NNW 4.1 G 7 22°F 1030.6 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 71 mi62 min NW 14 G 19 25°F 1 ft6°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY21 mi24 minESE 310.00 miFair15°F1°F56%1030.8 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4SW53W9NW5NW6NW6CalmCalmCalmS3Calm
2 days agoN8N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN10N12N8N6NW734CalmNE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:53 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:41 AM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:30 PM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:20 PM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.621.51.20.90.81.11.92.73.13.43.43.22.61.91.40.90.50.51.11.92.633.2

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Thu -- 04:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:20 AM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:03 AM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:57 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:42 PM EDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
32.51.91.41.10.80.91.62.53.13.53.73.53.12.41.71.10.70.50.91.72.533.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.