Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Conneaut, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:59PM Monday November 20, 2017 12:53 AM EST (05:53 UTC) Moonrise 9:00AMMoonset 6:51PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ148 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 300 Pm Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday. The water temperature off toledo is 43 degrees...off cleveland 50 degrees and off erie 48 degrees.
LEZ148 Expires:201711200330;;659547 FZUS51 KCLE 192000 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 300 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ145>149-200330-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Conneaut, OH
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.94, -80.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kcle 200552
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1252 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure centered over texas will move northeast across
tennessee and lower ohio valley Monday before moving off the mid
atlantic coast Monday night. Tuesday, low pressure moving
through ontario will drive a cold front through the region
during the afternoon and evening. Wednesday, high pressure will
dominate the region.

Near term through today
Fairly noticeable downtrend with the lake effect bands over the
last hour, with little more than flurries for most of NE oh
outside of ashtabula county. Backed off snow chances and amounts
where snow has diminished, with little to no additional snow
accumulation. Hi-res models starting to catch onto the drying
trend, with noted clearing of clouds across the western basin of
lake erie. Could still see some organized bands impacting
southern erie for several hours, with an additional uptick
around 12z as some better synoptic moisture moves across the
area, so will keep the headlines in tact. Otherwise, just minor
adjustments to the forecast with this update.

Original discussion...

lake effect snow showers have expanded over the past couple
hours as the colder air continues to deepen across the area.

Forecast soundings on bufkit show that for the next 6 to 8 hours
the depth of the cold air remains fairly constant with CAPE and
moisture up to 700mb. Lift and instability is within the
favored dendritic growth zone and lake induced CAPE reaches
5-700j kg. Moisture remains sufficient and shear is minimal. So
expect snow showers to continue increase this afternoon into
evening. After about 9 to 10pm though, the inversion begins to
lower, winds begin to slowly back, and dendritic snow growth
diminishes. Instability however remains "moderate" so les will
not shut down immediately. Could still see snow showers Monday
morning as warm advection isentropic lift moves through the
area. Otherwise expect plenty of sunshine outside of nwrn pa
although during the afternoon expecting decreasing clouds there
as well as drier air and high pressure build in from the south.

Models continue to show dry air across the region Monday night
as high pressure moves off the mid atlantic coast.

Short term tonight through Wednesday night
High pressure over the sern states slides east allowing the next
system to move in from the nw. Models continue to move low pressure
system across james bay late Tuesday forcing the next cold front
across the forecast area. Model timing coming into better agreement
with the front moving into NW oh late afternoon on Tuesday. The
front moves across the forecast area ushering in colder conditions
and a little snow. By daybreak Wednesday the 850 mb temps plunge to
-13c. With a w-nw flow best chance for snow will be int the
snowbelt east of cleveland. Do not expect much in the way of
accumulations as ridge builds in quickly on Wednesday.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
For the second day in a row have not made many changes to long term.

Friday is still looking dry with precip chances then increasing for
the weekend. Low pressure will pass to the north of lakes Friday
night and drag a cold front across the region. Some light precip
could occur along the front with best chances over the eastern end
of the area. There could be some lake effect behind this system as
both the GFS and ECMWF take 850 mb temps to neg 10 or colder by
early Sunday. On Saturday some rain showers could occur downwind of
the lake but by early Sunday we could be looking at lake effect
snow. For now will stick with chance pops for most of the weekend
with best chances obviously downwind of the lake. Have used a blend
of guidance for temps.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Most locations will beVFR through the day. The exception will
be downwind of lake erie across NE oh NW pa. This is where some
MVFR snow showers will be possible. Most of this activity will
be focused across NW pa but could clip ashtabula county through
mid morning. So at this point it appears only keri could dip
briefly to MVFR in a snow shower. The cloud cover should thin
and eventually dissipate by late afternoon at all locations.

Winds will become southwest at all locations by 12z. Strongest
near keri with gusts to 30 knots possible. Winds will shift
closer to a southerly direction at several sites this evening
with some gustiness possible. If skies remain clear tonight
allowing winds to decouple slightly there is a possibility of
some low level wind shear.

Outlook... A period of non-vfr possible Tuesday evening into the
overnight in showers. The non-vfr conditions will likely linger
across NE oh NW pa into Wednesday evening.

Marine
Northwest winds to 30 knots will diminish to 20 to 25 tonight. Winds
will back to the SW Monday and to the S Monday night ahead of next
approaching system, but small craft advisory will continue as winds
remain at 15 to 25 knots. Winds turn to the W to NW Tuesday night
as another cold front moves across lake erie. Winds gradually
diminish Wednesday as high pressure gradually builds over the
lake.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
paz002.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 3 pm est Wednesday for lez145>149.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est early this morning for
lez142>144.

Synopsis... Tk
near term... Greenawalt tk
short term... Djb
long term... Djb
aviation... Mullen
marine... Djb


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 3 mi40 min WNW 27 G 36 35°F 1014.2 hPa
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 25 mi77 min W 27 37°F
EREP1 28 mi53 min W 24 G 30
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 42 mi53 min W 29 G 37 36°F 1015.6 hPa (+1.5)26°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last
24hr
NW33
G40
NW30
G38
NW33
G41
NW31
NW33
NW27
G34
W25
NW28
G34
W23
G30
W26
G32
W24
G29
W22
G27
W22
G31
W26
W27
G33
NW28
G36
NW28
G34
W26
NW26
W25
G31
W26
G32
W24
G31
W28
W29
G37
1 day
ago
S18
G24
SW17
G23
S15
G20
S17
G23
S13
G17
S9
G13
S8
G11
S9
G12
S12
G15
S11
G17
S14
G22
S13
G18
S10
G14
S15
S12
G16
S18
S22
G28
S17
G25
S13
G23
W15
G20
NW29
NW30
NW32
NW33
2 days
ago
NW5
G8
W4
G7
NW9
NW5
G8
NW7
SW1
G5
SE3
S2
G5
SE8
S8
G11
S11
G14
SE11
G14
SE9
S7
G11
S9
S19
G26
S18
G22
S18
G23
S21
G27
S20

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH15 mi60 minWNW 910.00 miOvercast33°F23°F66%1015.7 hPa
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA20 mi62 minW 17 G 2610.00 miOvercast35°F23°F61%1014.5 hPa

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
Last 24hrNW13
G29
NW13
G32
NW19
G32
NW19
G28
NW12
G22
W13
G20
W11NW12
G20
NW13
G23
NW8
G19
NW8W8W6
G16
W10W5W9W11
G17
NW6W15
G22
W16
G24
W6W13
G21
W10
G18
W9
1 day agoS8S12
G20
S13S11S13
G19
S10
G18
S9S10S8
G20
S9S10S9S8S8S9S10S14
G18
S14
G21
S14
G25
SW10SW7NW11
G21
NW14
G19
NW15
G25
2 days agoNW9NW7NW4NW75NW4CalmCalmW3SW3S3S4SW7S7S10S9S7S9S8S10S12
G18
S12S11S11

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (0,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.