Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Conneaut, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:47PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 12:06 AM EDT (04:06 UTC) Moonrise 4:21AMMoonset 6:22PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ148 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 913 Am Edt Tue May 23 2017
This afternoon..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming onshore. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday. The water temperature off toledo is 61 degrees...off cleveland 55 degrees and off erie 57 degrees.
LEZ148 Expires:201705232015;;078833 FZUS51 KCLE 231313 NSHCLE NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 913 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LEZ147>149-232015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Conneaut, OH
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location: 41.94, -80.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 240215
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1015 pm edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure centered along the mid atlantic coast will move
off the coast tonight. Low pressure will slowly move from the
mississippi valley across the great lakes Wednesday and
Thursday. High pressure will briefly build over the region late
Friday. A warm front is expected to develop over the ohio
valley by Saturday. The next cold front should arrive by Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Clouds have overspread the area and are starting to lower from
the southeast as moisture advection continues. Showers across
eastern ohio have struggled to push north into the drier air.

Expecting to see scattered showers develop late tonight into
Wednesday morning as deeper moisture currently located near the
southern ohio border reaches NE ohio and NW pa. Raised mins a
couple degrees overnight given the cloud cover and rising
dewpoints.

Previous discussion... Kind of a busy weather map. The main
trough upper low was over iowa diving south. A weak short wave
over the midwest will lift north and the precipitation over the
midwest should stay west and north of the forecast area early
tonight. A short wave over the southern appalachians was moving
nne. Many of the models have been persistent in posting small
amounts of QPF over NE oh and W pa later tonight and despite the
dry SE downslope flow in the boundary layer, I could see a few
showers coming out of the mid level clouds later tonight into
early Wednesday across NE oh and NW pa. Condensation pressure
deficits take until 09-12z on the NAM to become nearly saturated
so it may be a challenge to overcome the dry boundary layer.

Have included a small pop (15-30) after midnight for NE oh and
nw pa.

Dew points are low and winds will be rather light but clouds will
increase tonight. Lows should be some 5-10 degrees warmer than
last night. Forecast lows will be near guidance which is
bunched mostly in the mid 50s.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Friday night
Not sure how the precipitation will evolve on Wednesday. There
could be a few morning showers NE oh NW pa but the main event
will be the approach of the upper low and associated surface low
by Wednesday afternoon. The models continue with a variety of
solutions as far as the surface low. Some solutions develop a
relatively deep surface low, almost looking as though from
convective feedback. The forecast will just gradually increase
the pop from southwest to northeast on Wednesday with the
majority of the rain from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night. Highs Wednesday are tricky. Temperatures could warm into
the lower 70s perhaps even mid 70s where the rain is slow to
arrive. Temperatures cold hold in the 60s if it is cloudy and
rain arrives quickly. The forecast will split the difference.

There remains some suggestion of a dry slot Wednesday night which
may be reasonable but did not try to get very specific with the
forecast just yet.

Likely or categorical pop on Thursday for showers under the upper
trough low. If there is a dry slot, it may take a while for the
showers to fill in.

The GFS is faster lifting out the upper low on Friday. Not sure i
buy it just yet. Will keep a small chance for showers mainly over
ne oh NW pa. High temperatures will recover toward normal.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Starting sat, the upper pattern may have some weak ridging but a
surface frontal boundary should be near the area to provide a focus
for shra and tsra. Sun thru Tue the next S W rotates SE into the
upper trough to re-amplify the trough over the lakes. This will lead
to unsettled weather with chances for shra and maybe possible tsra
while near normal temps trend back below normal.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Ceilings will be lowering with time over the next 24 hours as a
result of an upper level low pressure system that is expected to
dive south into the deep south by Wednesday afternoon. This will
force a low pressure system at the surface to move north toward
the ohio valley region during the same period. This will cause
rain to move into the area from the southwest with time.

Visibilities could drop as low as MVFR by tomorrow afternoon and
ceilings most areas down to MVFR and then possibly ifr by the
end of the period.

Outlook... Areas of non-vfr through Thursday in showers and
possible thunderstorms and again for the weekend.

Marine
Low pressure will develop over the il in area tonight but remain
nearly stationary until slowly moving NE across lake erie early thu
night and off the new england coast by late fri. This will lead to
increasing NE winds of about 10 to 20 knots for Wed that should
become more east to SE for Wed night then mainly SW then west thu
into Thu night. As colder air pushes across the lake Thu night and
fri there could be a period of near SCA conditions before winds
diminish to 10 knots or less by Fri evening and start to back to
south then east ahead of the next low that should move near the lake
sat night.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kosarik
near term... Kec kosarik
short term... Kosarik
long term... Adams
aviation... Lombardy
marine... Adams oudeman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 3 mi66 min ESE 4.1 G 6 62°F 1006.4 hPa (-1.1)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 25 mi106 min E 5.1 G 8 62°F
45167 26 mi66 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 60°F 59°F
EREP1 28 mi48 min ESE 1.9 G 4.1
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 42 mi48 min E 8 G 8.9 61°F 1005.6 hPa51°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH15 mi13 minN 010.00 miFair57°F51°F81%1006.2 hPa
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA20 mi15 minSSE 410.00 miFair60°F46°F62%1006 hPa

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S4S3S3S4S3CalmS4SE3S54SE6S9SE6SE9SE10
G15
SE93NE6NE5NE4E3E4Calm
1 day agoS6W6W10W9W6W6W11
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W12W12W12W7CalmCalmS5S5
2 days agoSE9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.