Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Conneaut, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 7:45PM Monday March 27, 2017 12:50 AM EDT (04:50 UTC) Moonrise 6:09AMMoonset 6:22PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ148 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 955 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of showers in the evening. Showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Showers likely in the morning...then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday. The water temperature off toledo is 38 degrees...off cleveland 38 degrees and off erie 36 degrees.
LEZ148 Expires:201703270815;;133752 FZUS51 KCLE 270155 NSHCLE NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 955 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LEZ148-149-270815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Conneaut, OH
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location: 41.94, -80.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 270143
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
943 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
A front will remain stalled near lake erie into Tuesday as waves of
low pressure ride northeast along the front eventually pulling the
front off to the southeast on Tuesday. High pressure will build
southeast into the area Tuesday night then lift northeast by
Thursday to allow a low to move up the ohio valley to new jersey by
Saturday.

Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/
3h jet pushing eastward across ohio which puts northern ohio/nw
pa in a favorable area for lift through the overnight. Will
leave the higher pops going with only minor changes to the
timing of the rain as it moves eastward. There could still be
an isolated rumble of thunder overnight but the atmosphere has
stabilized. So we will remove the mention of thunder from the
forecast.

Previous discussion...

energy from the surface and upper low lifting NE across mi
tonight will induce bands of shra and tsra that will move ne
across the cwa. Most of the convection will shift into the east
by the latter part of the night as a weak cold front/trough gets
pulled east across the cwa. Total rainfall from now until 8 am
should generally range from around a quarter of an inch to half
an inch with locally higher amounts where repeat tsra occur.

Lows will be seasonally warm, mostly in the low to mid 50s.

Short term /6 am Monday morning through Wednesday night/
There will only be a brief break in the rain threat the first half
of the day Monday as the next system moving toward the area will
provide for an increasing threat for shra/tsra in the
afternoon... Especially in the west half of the area.

With the track of the surface and upper low across the northern part
of the area, would think measurable rainfall will occur everywhere,
so will increase pops more Mon night into Tue along with qpf.

Temps will stay well above normal into Tue until cooler and drier
air push in for Tue night thru Wed night.

Long term /Thursday through Sunday/
The area will be located between high pressure over quebec on
Thursday with low pressure approaching from the plains. Another day
of easterly flow off lake erie could keep the toledo area several
degrees cooler than the rest of northern ohio. Nudged temperatures
down a few degrees downwind of the lake but hard to include much
detail as it will be highly dependent on storm track.

Showers will develop on Thursday night and continue through Friday
as the next in a series of low pressure systems tracks out of the
plains across the southern great lakes. Kept highs in the 50s on
Friday but entirely possible to reach the 60s if the more northern
track of the low shown by the ecmwf/canadian pans out. This system
pulls away to the east on Saturday but models in poor agreement with
regard to how much moisture/cloud cover lags behind. Showers should
taper off Saturday given the shallow moisture depth with quiet
weather on Sunday as weak high pressure arrives between systems.

Aviation /00z Monday through Friday/
The frontal boundary is right around ktol and will move north
this evening. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
to affect ktol and kfdy into early tonight before ending.

Additional showers will affect terminals farther east later this
evening into tonight with occasional MVFR/ifr conditions. Some
areas of fog could develop near midnight or a little sooner,
with the best chances away from the lakeshore. Conditions will
improve toVFR by late Monday morning into early Tuesday
afternoon across all terminals except keri.

Outlook... Areas of non-vfr much of the time late Monday into
tue then again by thu.

Marine
Warm front will continue to move north of lake erie this evening
with weak low pressure slowly moving northeast across the central
great lakes. Southerly flow of 10 to 15 knots possible overnight
shifting to southwest on Monday as the low continues northeast into
canada. Another area of low pressure will move out of the plains and
cross the ohio valley on Monday night. Northerly winds will develop
and pull a cold front back south across lake erie. Winds only
expected to be 10-15 knots so may be able to avoid a small craft
advisory despite onshore flow but will need to monitor trends over
the next 36 hours. Strong high pressure will then build east across
ontario and quebec from Tuesday night through Thursday with
east/northeast winds on the lake. Easterly winds may increase to 15
to 20 knots for a period of time on Thursday and will need to keep
an eye out for small craft conditions on the western basin. Another
area of low pressure will approach from the plains towards Friday
but models in poor agreement on wind speeds and track at this time.

Cle watches/warnings/advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Adams
near term... Adams/mullen
short term... Adams
long term... Kec
aviation... Mottice
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 3 mi51 min S 17 G 22 53°F 1013.2 hPa (-0.7)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 25 mi31 min S 7 G 15 56°F
EREP1 28 mi51 min S 8 G 13
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 42 mi51 min S 17 G 24 58°F 1012.5 hPa (-1.0)53°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH15 mi58 minSSE 1010.00 miLight Rain53°F50°F89%1013.9 hPa
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA20 mi60 minSSE 17 G 2410.00 miPartly Cloudy52°F46°F80%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5CalmNE4NE4NE3E3SE10SE11SE12
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1 day agoSW8N9SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN65N10
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NE74NE4N8NE8NE5NE4NE4CalmNE5E6
2 days agoS10S8S11S8S10S10S10S8S13
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W11SW7SW7SW11SW8SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.