Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 10:36 PM   Moonset 6:31 AM

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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 931 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Overnight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - East winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.Saturday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 52 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 49 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 261019 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 619 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will drift east of the Great Lakes region today and then move off the New England coast tonight. A warm front will lift across the area late tonight into Saturday followed by a cold front Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
615 am update...
The ongoing forecast is in good shape with no adjustments needed at this time.

Previous discussion...
High pressure centered over Upstate New York this morning is still in control of our weather pattern this morning. We are starting off this morning with frosty conditions under clear skies and temperatures in the lower to middle 30s away from the immediate lakeshore. We will allow the ongoing frost and freeze headlines to run through 9 am this morning.

High pressure east of the eastern Great Lakes region will move off the New England coast by tonight. Light easterly winds this morning will become southeasterly during the day with a return of milder weather coming back into the region. An upper level ridge track across the Ohio Valley today and this evening. Skies will start out clear this morning but high and mid level clouds will increase from west to east later today into this evening.
High temperatures will be on the upswing today climbing into the middle 60s to lower 70s.

A low pressure system will track through the Upper Midwest into the western Great Lakes region tonight and Saturday. A warm front will lift northward across the region tonight. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of that advancing warm front tonight into early Saturday.
No organized or severe convection is expected but a few rumbles of thunder could be possible late tonight and early Saturday morning.

After the warm front moves through the region Saturday morning, the temperatures will really warm up by Saturday afternoon. The area will be in a deep southerly and humid low level flow. Skies will start our mostly cloudy Saturday morning but become partly cloudy by the afternoon. Temperatures will range from the upper 70s to near 80 degrees across NWOH. Lower to middle 70s are expected across NEOH and upper 60s for NWPA.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
There will be some low confidence rain chances for Saturday night into Sunday with a warm front lifting north of the region and isentropic lift/moisture advection into the area will present some opportunity to generate some convection. With a strong ridge emerging into the region, believe that the trend with the first part of the period will be dry. Warm air advection into the region will be efficient for Sunday into Monday with the upper ridge and temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Some of the record temperatures across the area on Sunday and Monday are in the lower 80s and could be reached. An upper trough will progress eastward across the central CONUS on Monday and try to shift the upper ridge east, allowing the next system to reach the area. While some ensemble members are allowing precipitation into the area during the daytime hours on Monday, the pattern will likely be slower to develop with the ridge strength across the eastern CONUS and have the highest PoPs reflected for Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The long term period will be fairly standard for the end of April into early May with temperatures a touch above normal in the 70s and intermittent rain chances with several shortwaves moving through the Great Lakes region. The best rain chances through the period will be early on Tuesday as the first main trough will move through the local area with a cold front that will allow for temperatures to be a touch cooler than the weekend. Wednesday could end up being a drier day of the period with some ridging aloft before the next wave enters for Thursday. However, there are confidence concerns on the timing of the pattern, so have some low PoPs at a minimum daily.

AVIATION /12 Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
Conditions will continue to remain as VFR for the most of this TAF period. The one exception may be for TOL with MVFR ceilings and visibility moving in towards the end of the 24 hour period.
Otherwise, skies will start out mostly clear or fair weather skies today. High and mid level clouds will increase later today into tonight. A warm front will advance into the area late tonight with scattered rain showers after 06z possible. Winds will start out easterly 5 to 10 knots this morning. Winds will become southeasterly tonight 10 to 15 knots. Gusty winds up to 25 knots will return late this evening and overnight.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return in periodic showers and thunderstorms early Saturday morning through Tuesday.

MARINE
High pressure northeast of Lake Erie will promote easterly winds today. Winds will be the strongest over the west end of the lake with the long fetch of the lake. The surface high will move east tonight into Saturday as a warm front will move across the lake.
Strong southeast flow will overtake the lake late tonight into Saturday and the strength of the winds could necessitate a Small Craft Advisory headline. The front will lift north of the region for the weekend and winds will become southwesterly and decrease through Sunday. A cold front will approach the lake for Monday night and southwest winds will increase slightly again. Winds will shift to be a bit more westerly behind the front for the middle of the week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ003-006>014- 017>023-027>033-036>038-047.
PA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002-003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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