Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Conneaut, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 6:07PM Thursday February 22, 2018 9:17 PM EST (02:17 UTC) Moonrise 10:58AMMoonset 12:11AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ148 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 314 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of rain late. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy.
Saturday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 35 degrees...off cleveland 34 degrees and off erie 34 degrees.
LEZ148 Expires:201802230315;;387227 FZUS51 KCLE 222014 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 314 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>149-230315-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Conneaut, OH
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.94, -80.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kcle 222333
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
633 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
A series of weak low pressure systems will track northeast through
the region Friday through Sunday. These systems will swing a frontal
boundary north and south across the region through the weekend. The
strongest low tracking through the great lakes on Sunday will push a
cold front east through the area, with high pressure building east
across the region through the first half of next week.

Near term through Friday night
No significant changes for the 630 update. Added patchy dense
fog to the eastern erie lakeshore counties.

Original discussion...

an active pattern will continue through Friday night as another
wave of low pressure tracks northeast along a frontal boundary
just south of the forecast area. Main changes to the forecast
are temperatures and timing of pops. Temperatures today have
been much warmer than previously forecasted, and MOS guidance
suggests that any diurnal cooling through the evening will cease
as warm air advection takes hold across the region and
temperatures become steady and slowly rise through daybreak
tomorrow. Low temps may be reached early in the overnight,
likely before 06z. Temps should remain above freezing across the
area after 06z, so the onset of any precip should be rain, and
the threat of previously forecasted freezing rain across NW oh
is limited to non-existent at this point.

Have delayed the onset of precip a couple of hours during the Friday
morning period, as majority of guidance has trended this way. Pops
should MAX out mid morning to mid day across the area, with a period
of cat pops for the entire area. The rain should move east out of
the area by 00z, with mainly dry conditions across the area
overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. The bulk of the
guidances is putting the heaviest swath of rainfall just south of
the forecast area, with the heaviest amounts in our forecast area
expected from roughly marion to youngstown, where amounts around
0.75" to 1" are possible. Have held off on a flood watch at this
point, with the greater threat later in the weekend. Currently
thinking this round of rainfall Friday night will only prolong
existing river flooding across the southern part of the forecast
area, with the bigger flood threat in the Saturday Saturday night
time frame. Have raised highs a degree or two across the area, with
low to mid 50s across most of the area, with upper 50s to around 60
across the far southern fringe of the area.

Another low will track northeast into the area late Friday night
into early Saturday morning. Have slowed down pops with this period
as well, with likely pops holding off until closer to 12z. Lows will
be in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
The short term begins Saturday with an upper trough just east
of the rockies into the four corners and a negatively tilted
upper ridge across the upper midwest. At the surface, high
pressure will be over the great lakes. Low pressure will be in
the southern plains with low level flow out of the glfmx into
the lower ohio valley. This will be a very wet pattern for the
ohio valley in general and will need to monitor the expected
swath of heaviest rainfall Saturday into Sunday for potential
flood headlines. For now however will bring categorical pops
into the area from the ssw on Saturday continuing Saturday night
as the southern plains low moves to the western great lakes
dragging a warm front into the area followed by a cold front
late Saturday night and early Sunday. Drying moves in quickly
Sunday from the west as the storm system continues northeast
across the lakes into ontario and high pressure builds in from
the south. Expect non-diurnal temp trends Saturday night into
Sunday morning with warm advection ahead of the system. Expect
falling temps Sunday... Mainly west, as the cold front passes
although increasing Sun will mute the fall during mid afternoon.

Highs Saturday mid 40s to lower 50s, Monday 50s to near 60, and
Monday 45 to 50.

Long term Monday through Thursday
The models are holding firm for the Monday night through Tuesday
night period. High pressure will linger over the region during that
time keeping skies no more than partly cloudy most of the time.

Yesterday it looked like we could see increasing precip chances on
Wednesday. That is still the case although the progression of the
mean features is a little slower than yesterday. Will go with small
chance pops during the day with higher pops Wednesday night through
Thursday. The models are similar tracking a low across the lakes on
Thursday and Thursday night. Some timing and track differences
persist but am confident enough in the practical weather to trend
pops up for the end of the period. Temperatures will remain above
normal and most if not all of the precip during the period will be
in the form of rain.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
Expect widespread ifr lifr conditions to develop overnight with
warm front stalled just south of the forecast area. Rain will
move across the forecast area tomorrow as a low tracks across
the central great lakes. Should be warm enough that all precip
is liquid.

Outlook... Non-vfr will continue. Rain will move SE of forecast
area late tomorrow with another round of rain developing
Saturday.

Marine
No gales expected through Tuesday however Sunday winds will approach
30 knots from the southwest. For tonight expect northeast flow 10 to
15 knots turning southeast towards morning as high pressure over the
lakes moves east. Friday low pressure moves into the western lakes
turning southerly flow southwest around 15 knots. Friday night into
Saturday light flow will turn east Saturday as another high moves
across the lakes. Sunday deep low pressure crosses the western lakes
on its way to ontario. Lake erie winds will increase to 20 to 25
knots late Saturday night from the south and then turn southwest
Sunday 25 to 30 knots. Southwest winds diminish to 10 to 15 knots
by Monday morning as high pressure builds onto the lake from the
south. Light southwest flow will continue through Tuesday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Greenawalt
near term... Djb greenawalt
short term... Tk
long term... Kubina
aviation... Djb riley
marine... Tk


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 3 mi77 min ENE 15 G 18 32°F 1033.9 hPa (+0.4)
EREP1 28 mi47 min ENE 13 G 16
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 42 mi47 min ENE 26 G 28 1033.1 hPa

Wind History for Fairport, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
Last
24hr
NE6
NE9
NE11
NE15
NE17
NE15
NE18
E19
G24
E16
E12
G15
E10
E8
G11
NE17
NE21
NE20
E20
NE22
NE21
NE24
NE26
NE22
E22
NE23
NE24
1 day
ago
S15
G25
SW16
G27
S17
G24
S14
G21
S19
G24
W14
G17
SW11
G15
SW19
G24
W30
G39
W10
W7
G11
NW5
G9
N4
G8
NW6
NW3
NW9
N11
N9
N13
N13
N12
G15
N11
G14
N9
N9
2 days
ago
S17
G25
W21
SW9
G12
SW19
G26
SW15
G20
SW21
G29
SW19
G27
S17
G26
SW21
G30
SW18
G27
S19
G30
SW20
G28
SW22
G29
SW18
G29
SW18
G22
SW17
S13
G17
S13
G18
S7
G11
S10
G13
S11
S13
G18
S12
G19
S16
G22

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH15 mi24 minNE 57.00 miOvercast35°F34°F96%1034.2 hPa
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA20 mi26 minNE 97.00 miOvercast35°F32°F89%1035.2 hPa

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
Last 24hrN33NE6N5NE4NE5NE5NE6NE4NE3SE5SE6E5E4NW11NE7NE5N5N864E6NE6NE5
1 day agoS11S12S12S11SW13
G20
SW12S12
G20
S15S12W12
G20
NW10N7NW8N5NW11
G16
NW8NW8N6N10
G16
N7N5N5N53
2 days agoS9S11S12S12S10SW11SW9SW9S10SW11SW13SW15
G20
S16
G22
SW13
G29
SW16
G25
SW14
G22
SW12S12S9S6S7S8S8S14
G19

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (21,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.