Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 2:34 AM   Moonset 12:51 PM

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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 400 Am Edt Thu May 2 2024
Today - West winds less than 10 knots becoming north. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday night - East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 58 degrees, off cleveland 51 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 021318 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 918 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue southeast across the eastern Great Lakes today before a warm front advances north across the area tonight. A low pressure system and cold front will enter the region on Friday and be slow to exit until a stronger cold front moves through on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
The forecast for today and tonight continues to trend more optimistic for a pleasant, fair weather day with rain chances sliding further toward Friday. High pressure is building into the region from the northwest behind a weak cold front. This system will nestle into the eastern Great Lakes region with dew points in the 40s and flow off Lake Erie for at least half of the area. This should abate much in the way of cloud development, let alone rain, and have a dry forecast for today.
High temperatures will be a bit of a dichotomy with near lake areas staying cooler with seasonable highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Whereas, inland areas will continue with their streak of above normal temperatures and 80s will be possible in spots.

A warm front will advance north tonight. However, this front will struggle to do much in the region with the dry air mass in place and poor upper level support with a ridge overhead. Some mid-level clouds should enter and there could be an isolated shower in Northwest Ohio. Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s.
The better chance for rain will be toward daybreak on Friday and through the day. A vorticity maximum will roll overhead through the region and bring some better lift as a cold front and low pressure system approach the area. These features will all be slow to progress as the vorticity max will be forced up over the upper ridge and the ridge will be a blocking feature to slow the entire evolution of the system. With that, will slowly raise PoPs and cloud cover through the day on Friday. Areas in the eastern half of the forecast area could warm significantly warmer than guidance with the slower system evolution and have 80s for highs with upper 70s to the west and near the lakeshore.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Unsettled is going to be the best way to describe the pattern over the short term forecast period. The Friday night period begins with an ongoing cold front slow to exit through the CWA, held up by surface wave of low pressure. High PWAT environment in low shear and limited instability sets the stage for some heavy downpours moving through, however, could get some longer residence time due to the aforementioned surface low keeping the forward speed of the system and convection on the slower side of things. The severe threat is fairly low with an atmospheric column devoid of strong winds in any layer despite some instability to work with and also absent of any significant mid level drying to induce evaporative cooling induced downdrafts. Weak high pressure follows the exit of the surface low, but this will be short lived and will not necessarily hinder the shower and storm threat carrying into the day Saturday. But the severe threat is similar going into Saturday night with just not enough shear in the column. A secondary cold front cuts through late Saturday night into Sunday, which should finally take the instability with it heading into the long term. Temperatures a little cooler heading through the weekend, but still slightly above normal for most, with Sunday being a couple degrees warmer with pretty much all locations back into the 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure over the Great Lakes begins the long term after frontal passage. The cold front will have pushed southward into the Ohio Valley, and then into Monday night push back northeastward as a warm front. Showers and storms expected with this as the temperatures come back up toward 80F for Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, an upper level low will track from the Pacific northwest area eastward into the northern plains region. Occluded system moves back in midweek with drying late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Low to mid 70s again Monday, warming back into the 80s by Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/
The TAF period will remain VFR through Friday morning. High pressure building from the northwest will allow for just some high clouds and generally light easterly winds to be favored for most of the day. A warm front will lift north across the area tonight and bring some mid level clouds while shifting winds to the southeast. Some isolated showers could enter Northwest Ohio by the end of the TAF period as the next system approaches. Have some ceilings around 5 kft entering late in the TAF period but coverage and confidence for rain is low at this point for a TAF mention and if rain does develop, it would be unlikely to have a non-VFR impact.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic/scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday through Monday.

MARINE
East winds 10-15kts bring 1-2ft waves in the central/western basin of Lake Erie before becoming southeasterly by early Friday. Winds largely variable through the weekend with a couple frontal systems cutting through the lake, but for the most part, wave heights will be less than 2ft through Tuesday despite chances for showers and thunderstorms through much of the period.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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