Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Timberlake, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 5:31PM Monday January 22, 2018 7:20 AM EST (12:20 UTC) Moonrise 10:51AMMoonset 11:07PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ166 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 328 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely early, then a chance of rain showers from late morning on. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Rain showers.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
LEZ166 Expires:201801221515;;815835 FZUS61 KCLE 220828 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 328 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure 29.50 inches will track across the central Great Lakes tonight pulling a cold front across Lake Erie by daybreak Tuesday. A secondary cold front will follow late Tuesday afternoon and evening. High pressure 30.40 inches will build across the western lakes Wednesday and across the eastern lakes Thursday. A warm front will lift north across the lake on Friday. LEZ061-162>169-221515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Timberlake, OH
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location: 41.94, -81.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 221056
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
556 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will lift north across the forecast area today
producing scattered showers and well above normal temperatures. A
strong cold front will move across the area tonight ushering in more
seasonal conditions.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Removed ohio counties from the dense fog advisory as warm front
now near the ohio pa border, and visibilities have improve
significantly in the warm sector.

Original discussion...

a warm front across central ohio is producing scattered showers
across the entire area, as well as dense fog across the eastern half
of the forecast area. Expect the warm front to lift NE of the
forecast area by this afternoon taking the showers with it. Will
start to see some Sun and the temperatures will soar into the mid to
upper 50s. A few places could even see 60 degrees if we see enough
sunshine. This is roughly 20 to 25 degrees above normal for this
time of year. Enjoy the warmer conditions because they are not
going to last.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday night
Models continue to move a low pressure system, now near kansas city,
across the central great lakes early Tuesday. Expect rain to spread
across the forecast area overnight ahead of the system the low will
track NE across the central lakes early Tuesday, forcing another
cold front across the forecast area. High temperatures for the day
will be in the morning with slowly falling temps during the
afternoon. Rain will begin to transition to rain snow mix or
plain snow by Tuesday evening. Transition will be so late do not
expect much in the way of accumulation on Tuesday.

The short term begins Tuesday night with models showing low pressure
in SRN quebec and new england with wrap around moisture and cold
advection across the area. Temps at 850mb average around -7 to -8c
on the NAM and ECMWF but are a couple degrees warmer on the gfs.

Either way this will be low enough for snow showers across the area
with the best chance of course in the snowbelt. Expect snow showers
to persist through Wednesday and into Wednesday night in the
snowbelt. Thursday high pressure will build in from the south. For
now will continue dry with partly cloudy skies but confidence level
is a bit below 100 percent given we will be experiencing warm
advection overrunning. As long as airmass is as dry as advertised
partly cloudy will hold. Friday continue to look nice with a
building upper ridge, high pressure to our east and dry air in
place. Expect Wednesday and Thursday near normal Friday above normal
with highs in the 40s.

Long term Friday through Sunday
The long term trend shows an upper trough to our west and eventually
moving through the great lakes and ohio valley on Monday.

Confidence, mainly in timing is lower given differences in the new
runs vs yday. Models now show less amplification with the system
through the period resulting in a more progressive system vs a more
extended period of precipitation. The GFS is faster with the
moisture bring rain into the area Friday night. Both agree on
Saturday being wet although the GFS being faster dries the west in
the afternoon. Sunday best precip chances will be east although
will continue with chance pops elsewhere. Monday with cold air in
place will have pops for lake effect snow. Saturday temps above
normal dropping to near or a bit below normal on Monday.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
Expect conditions to gradually improve MVFR overnight as
scattered showers move in from the west. Should see a brief
periods ofVFR late this morning into the afternoon as a warm
front lifts NE of the forecast area. Showers will develop from
the west this afternoon ahead of approaching cold front.

Outlook... Non-vfr for much of Tuesday through Wednesday. Gusty
winds by Tuesday.

Marine
No headlines expected through the forecast period although we do get
close to southwest gales Tuesday evening. For today into tonight
expect south southeast flow turning southwest towards morning
Tuesday. Speeds generally 10 to 15 knots. Tuesday southwest flow
will increase through the day to near 30 knots by evening as low
pressure moves northeast through the central lakes. Winds will turn
northwest behind the low decreasing to 10 to 20 knots by Wednesday
morning. Winds will decrease further wedneday night and Thursday as
high pressure moves over the lakes. Friday look for south winds
increasing to around 15 knots as high pressure covers the eastern
seaboard and low pressure approaches the northern lakes.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... Dense fog advisory until 9 am est this morning for paz002-003.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Djb
near term... Djb
short term... Djb tk
long term... Adams tk
aviation... Djb
marine... Tk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 25 mi51 min S 8.9 G 9.9 47°F 1014 hPa47°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 28 mi51 min SSE 4.1 G 8.9 49°F 1013.6 hPa46°F
LORO1 42 mi51 min S 14 G 17 51°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH27 mi36 minSSE 11 G 1915.00 miLight Rain50°F32°F50%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S6S8S7S6S8S7S10S9S8SW4SW4S5S6S6S5--------------S11
G19
1 day agoSW15SW14SW16SW15SW17SW18SW17SW18SW10
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SW10SW10SW7SW6SW12SW12--------------S6
2 days agoS10
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--------------SW15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.