Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Timberlake, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 9:05PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 6:50 PM EDT (22:50 UTC) Moonrise 10:06AMMoonset 11:33PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ166 Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- 341 Pm Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening...then showers and Thunderstorms likely overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ166 Expires:201706290215;;964954 FZUS61 KCLE 281941 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 341 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.20 inches over West Virginia will move off the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight. A warm front will develop over the Mississippi Valley and move across the western Great Lakes tonight and the eastern Great Lakes Thursday. Low pressure 29.50 inches will develop over the upper midwest on Friday and move north of the Great Lakes over the weekend sending a cold front across Lake Erie Saturday. High pressure 30.10 inches will build over the western lakes Sunday into Monday. LEZ162>166-290215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Timberlake, OH
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location: 41.94, -81.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 281922
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
322 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will continue to move east of the area and off the
east coast tonight. This will allow a low to cut northeast
across the central great lakes bringing a weak warm front
northeast across the area Thursday. A boundary will be present
Thursday and Friday, which will become the focus of convection.

Near term through Thursday
A difficult forecast with greater than normal uncertainty is in
store for the near term. Dry weather will continue through
tonight and into Thursday morning as a ridge of high pressure
moves off the eastern seaboard. A weak warm front will lift
northeast across the area Thursday morning as a surface low cuts
northeast across the great lakes. It appears there will be
minimal forcing along this front, so not expecting anything in
the way of precipitation along it as it moves through.

By the afternoon this front will be well north of the area.

However, a differential heating boundary will develop and this
will be the primary focus for convection. There is still
uncertainty in just how strong this boundary will be, but it
should be strong enough to get at least a couple storms to fire
across northwest ohio during the late afternoon and evening
hours. Isolated storms may also be able to develop in the
higher terrain of northwest pennsylvania as we see increasing
instability developing throughout the afternoon. Some cams
(convective-allowing models) do not show any storms developing
at all, however, with the amount of instability present combined
with the boundary mentioned above and sufficient shear, this
seems improbable.

Storms should increase in coverage after dark, especially
within a county or two of the lakeshore, as moisture continues
to be advected northward into the area.

Environmental parameters suggest a few severe storms will be
possible from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. MLCAPE on
the order of 1500 j kg (eastern areas) to 2500 j kg (northwest
ohio), combined with 30 to 40 knots of 0-6km bulk shear and
steep low-level lapse rates suggests the primary threats with
any storm that develops will be damaging winds and large hail.

If a storm can become rooted along the differential heating
boundary in northwest ohio, then an isolated weak tornado cannot
be ruled out. Storms will begin to weaken dissipate after
midnight or so.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
Broad upper level trough will swing east across the forecast area
through this forecast period. A weak shortwave trough will move
east across the region Friday setting up a narrow low level jet
streak across lake erie Friday into Friday night. This will put
the local forecast area in the right rear quad of the jet as
well. Abundant moisture appears to be surging into the local
area Friday along with a weak area of low pressure and a warm
frontal boundary stretched west to east across the lower great
lakes. All of these features working together in concert will
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast
area Friday. Warm air advection south of the warm front will
help boost temperatures back into the 80s due to the low level
jet in place. Breezy conditions will take place as well at
between 10 and 20 knots.

The whole weather package will shift east Friday night into Saturday
allowing a ridge of high pressure at the surface to build in from
the west Saturday through Sunday. This feature will try to make an
attempt to bring drier weather to the local area. However, with
upper level trough in place, can't rule out a possibility for a
slight chance for showers and thunderstorms by Sunday. Slightly
cooler air pushes southeast in the wake of the surface low
pressure system. Although, temperatures will still remain in the
upper 70s east to lower 80s elsewhere across the area Saturday
and Sunday.

Due to the warm air advection Friday night, will likely see balmy
temperatures in the lower 70s for lows.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Near normal temperatures expected through the long term period,
Sunday night through Wednesday, as a stationary front remains
settled over the region. There will likely be some temperature
variations depending on the boundary location, but it's way too
early for specifics, so will opt for consensus blend for temps.

Pops will increase during this period, especially Tuesday as
long range models peg low pressure tracking across the region.

Will opt for no higher than chance pops at this point.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Vfr conditions will continue through the forecast period with
high pressure over the area. High clouds will continue to spread
into the region. Winds will increase sharply Thursday morning
with southerly winds gusting to 25 to 30 knots by mid morning.

For kcle, a chance of thunderstorms will exist after 22z, so
have included a prob30 at this time.

Outlook... Non-vfr conditions possible in thunderstorms Thursday
evening into Thursday night and again Friday afternoon evening
into Friday night.

Marine
Southwesterly winds will quickly increase Thursday morning into
the afternoon hours. With the southwest flow the higher waves
should generally tend to stay out in the open waters, but winds
will approach small craft advisory criteria. Will hold off on
issuing for now and pass it off to the next shift. Winds will
begin to calm down a bit Thursday night, but storms chances will
be increasing through the late evening and overnight hours.

Winds will be around 15 to 25 knots on the lake Friday out of the
southwest and then quickly diminish as a cold frontal boundary
slides southeast across the lake Friday night. Generally light and
variable flow is expected Saturday increasing to 15 to 25 knots
again Sunday from the southwest as a surface high pressure ridge
builds east into the region.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mottice
near term... Mottice
short term... Lombardy
long term... Greenawalt
aviation... Mottice
marine... Lombardy mottice


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45164 14 mi51 min ESE 3.9 69°F 70°F1017.2 hPa (-2.1)
45169 24 mi31 min SSW 9.7 G 14 74°F 70°F1 ft1017.1 hPa58°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 25 mi51 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 71°F 1017.2 hPa (-1.9)54°F
45176 27 mi31 min SSW 12 G 14 75°F 71°F1 ft1016.6 hPa55°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 28 mi51 min SSW 4.1 G 12 77°F 48°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 38 mi91 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 70°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 42 mi41 min S 7.8 G 9.7 72°F 67°F1016 hPa59°F
45132 - Port Stanley 44 mi51 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 67°F 67°F1 ft1016.8 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH27 mi66 minno data20.00 miOvercast77°F50°F39%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W6SW4S4S5--------------SW8SW8SW12W10W10W10W5NW5N5SW8S10--
1 day agoW12W9S10SW15
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W10--------------NW8W8W6NW12W13NW10
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2 days agoNW12W10--W7SW4--------------SW6SW8W12W8W12NW15
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W10NW14W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.