Sunday, February17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Timberlake, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 6:02PM Sunday February 17, 2019 8:39 PM EST (01:39 UTC) Moonrise 3:45PMMoonset 5:55AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ166 Expires:201902180330;;091553 Fzus61 Kcle 172033 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 333 Pm Est Sun Feb 17 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure 29.80 inches over the ohio valley will move east tonight and off the mid atlantic coast by Monday morning. High pressure of 30.70 inches will build east across the great lakes region Monday night through Tuesday night. The high will move east of the lake Wednesday as a warm front lifts north, crossing the lake Wednesday evening. A cold front will quickly follow, sweeping east across the lake Wednesday night. High pressure 30.40 inches will build east across the great lakes Thursday through Saturday. Lez162>166-180330- lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh- lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh- lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh- lake erie open waters from avon point to willowick oh- 333 pm est Sun feb 17 2019
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. Snow early, then snow and freezing rain with freezing drizzle likely. Snow likely with a chance of freezing drizzle late. Waves in ice free areas 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Snow likely with patchy freezing drizzle early, then a chance of snow showers late in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Snow, rain likely with a chance of freezing rain during the day, then rain likely Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north less than 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Waves 1 foot or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LEZ166


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Timberlake, OH
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location: 41.94, -81.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 172358
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
658 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

Synopsis
Weak low pressure over the lower missouri valley today will
move east and enter the ohio valley region tonight before
moving off the east coast on Monday. High pressure builds back
into the great lakes region Monday night into Tuesday. A pair of
low pressure systems will then move through the area on
Wednesday and Thursday, one to the north into canada and one to
the south through the carolinas.

Near term through Monday night
Messy messy evening with pockets of freezing rain and freezing
drizzle over the forecast area. Exception for the moment is
northwest pennsylvania where they are just now getting some
light precipitation. At any rate, the threat for freezing
precipitation will continue through the evening hours and has
been reported at both toledo and findlay along with some media
reports in that area. Therefore, expanded the winter weather
advisory for the rest of the forecast area in northwest ohio
through 1 am in the morning. Hoping I don't have to extend the
advisory later into the night as there is the possibility for
the low cloud deck hanging around during the rest of the night
and depth of cloud deck may be sufficient to support the
freezing drizzle. Will take another look at the 9 pm update.

Latest satellite imagery showed some high clouds at the contrail
level racing northeast across the area but this so far has not
been low enough to support seeder feeder process and
precipitation appears to be staying freezing type precipitation
and not snow in the southeast portions of the area. So, rest of
the advisory will remain in place as is.

Original discussion...

we are seeing strong isentropic lift across ohio into northwest
pennsylvania this afternoon with the strong lift area between
central and northern ohio as of mid afternoon. Bands of moderate
to occasional heavy precipitation has develop. We have had
snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour with some of the heavier
bands. Mping reports and the correlation coefficient on radar
showing more of a wintry mix along and south of highway 224
across central ohio. We have even seen a several lightning
strikes associated with thunder sleet and freezing rain down in
the central ohio area this afternoon.

For the rest of the evening, we expect the warm nose layer to
creep up to near the lakeshore this evening with a light wintry
mix for most of northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

Northwest may stay mainly light snow. We will lose the cloud ice
and nuclei late this evening and have the potential for light
freezing drizzle or mist overnight. Earlier this afternoon, we
expanded the winter weather advisory a row of counties northward
through 06z. Depending on how the freezing drizzle potential
plays out later this evening, we may have to expand the time on
the advisory if needed overnight.

Across northern ohio, we still expect a general 1 to 2 inches
with isolated higher amounts of snowfall for far northeast ohio
into northwest pa. A light coating of sleet is possible followed
by a light glaze of freezing rain and ice on objects. Ice
accumulation will be a few one hundredths of an inch to up to a
tenth of an inch possible across central ohio areas.

The area of low pressure will move east of the area by Monday
morning with northern winds and colder air aloft returning. We
will see a change back to light snow showers Monday morning
across the area with the snow showers lingering the longest for
the primary snowbelt region. All snow showers will come to an
end by Monday afternoon. Monday night will be the coldest
temperatures for the week, down in the middle teens.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
High pressure over the great lakes Tuesday will drift eastward into
new england Tuesday night. This will keep conditions dry across the
region Tuesday and most of Tuesday night, with precip chances
increasing late Tuesday night into Wednesday as low pressure across
the southern plains tracks towards the western great lakes. The area
will be split between two stronger areas of convergence lift, one to
the southeast of the region with a strong low level jet mid level
forcing, and one to the northwest near the surface low. Although the
highest pops are on either side of the forecast area, there looks to
be a decent enough period of low level lift to warrant likely pops
Wednesday into Wednesday night. It looks for now to be a steady
transition from snow to rain, with perhaps a brief corridor of
freezing rain mix in between. The low will quickly track east out of
the great lakes Wednesday night, with dry conditions returning to
the area by Thursday, aside for some low lake effect chances across
northwest pa. Highs will be in the low 30s Tuesday, warming into the
upper 30s low 40s Wednesday and Thursday.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
A large area of high pressure will work east across the great lakes
Thursday night into new england by Friday. A similar looking upper
level pattern will bring the ejection of another low northeast from
the southern plains into the great lakes Saturday through Sunday.

Went with mid chance low likely pops Saturday through Sunday, with
lower confidence in specifics given model differences at this time
range. Generally above normal temperatures expected, with highs
Friday in the low 40s, and highs in the mid upper 40s possible
Saturday into Sunday, with a few spots approaching 50 degrees south
on Saturday.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Nasty aviation day with areas of freezing rain and freezing
drizzle across the local area this evening. Bulk of the main
precipitation is moving off to the northeast at this time but
residual freezing drizzle rain pockets will remain for a good
chunk of the evening hours. Winter weather advisory is in effect
for the entire area through 1 am in the morning due to the
freezing precipitation. Expecting the freezing rain drizzle to
change over to all snow as low pressure moves east of the area
and forces colder air into the region aloft. Lower ceilings will
prevail through the rest of the forecast period with a
possibility of going toVFR at findlay by the end of the
forecast period. Winds will gradually shift around to the north
and then northwest tonight into tomorrow.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible Tuesday night into Thursday morning.

Marine
Low pressure will pass south of the lake tonight. Northeast flow
will gradually diminish, backing northerly by Monday morning as the
low moves out of the region. Water levels are on the higher side
across the western basin, however do not anticipate levels reaching
critical thresholds for lakeshore flooding as winds begin to subside
this evening. Will continue to monitor closely over the next several
hours. Winds will be light and variable Monday night into Tuesday as
high pressure moves across the lake. Low pressure will pass west and
north of the lake Wednesday night, with easterly winds increasing
Wednesday, veering southwest by Thursday morning. Another ridge will
bring light an variable winds Thursday night through Friday night.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Monday for ohz003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.

Pa... Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Monday for paz001>003.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Griffin
near term... Griffin lombardy
short term... Greenawalt
long term... Greenawalt
aviation... Lombardy
marine... Greenawalt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 25 mi52 min ENE 20 G 24 28°F 33°F1008.4 hPa28°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 28 mi52 min 27°F 1007.8 hPa24°F
LORO1 42 mi70 min ENE 13 G 15 28°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH27 mi55 minNE 43.00 miLight Freezing Drizzle Fog/Mist27°F26°F100%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6NE5NE7--------------E6NE4E5E10E6E6E10E6E6E9--NE6NE7NE4
1 day agoW10
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W12--------------NW4N9N5N6N10N8W4NW4N5N6N8--NE8NE5
2 days agoS10S10S8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.