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LEZ166 Expires:202405070215;;739384 Fzus61 Kcle 061945 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 345 pm edt Mon may 6 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis - High pressure over the great lakes departs to the east tonight. A warm front approaches lake erie from the lower and middle ohio valley on Tuesday and then sweeps northeastward across the lake Tuesday night. Behind the warm front, a weak ridge averaging 30.00 inches should build from the middle mississippi valley through Wednesday night. A low of 29.50 inches will then track generally eastward across the southern great lakes region and toward southern new england on Thursday through Friday and be followed by a residual trough averaging 29.70 inches over the great lakes.
lez165>167-070215- vermilion to avon point oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- avon point to willowick oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-willowick to geneva-on-the- lake oh beyond 5nm off shoreline to us-canadian border- 345 pm edt Mon may 6 2024
Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers early in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Showers during the day, then a chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Friday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 062347 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 747 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will drift northeast of the area tonight before low pressure occluding over the Dakotas lifts a warm front across the region on Tuesday. A cold front will cross the local area late Tuesday into Wednesday with multiple disturbances crossing the region Thursday through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
740 PM Update...
Showers along the southern border of the CWA have largely diminished to sprinkles. No changes needed with this update.

Previous Discussion...

The near term forecast will begin with a stationary front to the south/southeast of the CWA and weak surface high pressure over the northern half of the area. Showers over the far southern border of the CWA may continue through the rest of this afternoon, but the high will suppress the vast majority of the showers to the south of the CWA Showers should dissipate by tonight and a brief period of dry weather is expected through Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday, an upper low will track northeast across the northern Plains with a shortwave lifting northeast across the region as surface low pressure occludes over the Dakotas. The enhanced lift will allow the aforementioned stationary front to push north as a warm front during the day Tuesday and the front should lift into the area by late Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday evening as a shortwave trough advances east towards the CWA Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of this feature; latest CAMs suggest storms will develop at some point during the late afternoon/early evening and progress east across the area into Tuesday night. Within the warm sector, there should be a nose of enhanced instability and moisture with MLCAPE values as high as 1500 J/kg, primarily in the southwestern part of the CWA which will have the longest residence time in the warm sector. In addition to unstable environment, the robust wind field aloft will result in high wind shear values, including effective bulk shear values of 50 to 60 knots. If this pans out, all severe weather hazards will be on the table including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes (best chance in the SPC Day 2 Enhanced Risk area). It will be quite humid with precipitable water values of about 1.5 inches and can't rule out heavy rainfall rates and potential for localized flooding.

There's still a bit to iron out with the mesoscale environment and the resulting severe weather risk, primarily across the eastern half of the area. While there's quite a bit of confidence that severe weather will occur somewhere in the warm sector/Enhanced Risk area, there is still uncertainty in how quickly and how far north/east the warm front lifts before the better upper forcing begins to move east into the local area. There's also potential for an initial round of convection with the warm front Tuesday afternoon with another round arriving with the best forcing Tuesday evening. CAMs aren't quite on the same page with how well this activity holds together before dissipating. Any weakened convection could serve as a boundary for redevelopment/intensification when the main activity moves in Tuesday evening.

Storms should begin to lose steam as they move into a slightly more stable environment in the eastern parts of the area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, as outlined in the Slight and Marginal risks for severe weather across the remainder of the area. Convection should largely exit to the east towards the end of the period, but can't rule out scattered showers through the early morning hours Wednesday.

Temperatures will be in the upper 40s into the 50s tonight before warming into the mid to upper 70s Wednesday. Expect overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
High pressure briefly resides over the area, with mostly sunny skies and highs in 70s to areawide (although some spots hitting 80 especially in the central to northwest Ohio region).

By Wednesday night, low pressure out of the northern Great Plains moves east to IN/OH region by Thursday morning. Precipitation chances increase Wednesday night and Thursday morning as the warm front associated with low moves into the area. Instability will be low but high shear could result in a very low severe weather threat for our southern counties Wednesday night. Additional convection could develop Thursday afternoon with a low severe weather threat as well. Precipitation chances continue into Thursday night, mainly with isolated to scattered rain showers.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
On the backside of the departing low, isolated to scattered rain showers persist during the day Friday as the upper-level trough swings through. Cooler temperatures ensue through the weekend following the departure of the low with highs down into the 60s. A weak low and upper-level trough cross the Great Lakes region on Saturday. Low precipitation chances continue through the rest of the weekend, though low confidence in these precipitation chances.

AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/
Any lingering MVFR will lift to VFR within the first couple hours of the TAF period and expect VFR to prevail through at least the first half of the TAF period before MVFR ceilings redevelop at southern terminals as a warm front lifts into the region. Showers (and perhaps isolated thunderstorms) may develop towards western terminals as early as Tuesday afternoon, but the greatest chance of showers/storms will arrive from the west near or shortly after 21Z. Can't rule out strong wind gusts within thunderstorms, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the placement and timing of thunderstorms so opted for showers with a vicinity thunder mentioned for the time being.

Winds will be out of the northeast at 5 to 10 knots tonight before gradually shifting to the south/southeast by Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms through Saturday.

MARINE
A relatively low impact forecast from a wind/waves perspective as there is a low chance of headlines. High pressure over the Great Lakes departed to the east as a warm front lifts north towards the lake tonight and Tuesday moving north across the lake Tuesday evening. Easterly flow will probably result in some choppiness (2-4 ft waves) in the western basin before the front crosses. High pressure briefly builds in Wednesday before another low moves eastward just south of Lake Erie Wednesday night and Thursday.
Behind this low, northwest flow of around 15 knots could result in some 4 ft waves, with a small chance for the need of a small craft advisory Thursday night and Friday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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