Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Province, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 7:59PM Monday May 20, 2019 10:23 AM EDT (14:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:57PMMoonset 6:41AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 717 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog this morning. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms this morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 717 Am Edt Mon May 20 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres will track across quebec today and drag a cold front across the waters tonight. Low pres will continue to intensify Tue as it moves east into the canadian maritimes...bringing a period of 30 to 35 northwest wind gusts to the near shore waters. High pres then builds in from the west on Wed before moving east of the waters Thu. Low pres then may track across the waters late Thu into early Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Province, MA
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location: 41.99, -70.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 201110
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
710 am edt Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis
A warm summerlike afternoon is in store for the region ahead of a
strong cold front. As this cold front approaches a few strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible between 2 and 9 pm this evening,
before much drier and cooler air works into the region overnight.

This will be followed by dry, windy and more seasonable weather
Tuesday. Dry weather continues Wednesday into Thursday with
less wind, then a period of showers will likely impact the
region sometime late Thursday into early Friday. Summer like
warmth may return by the end of next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
* a few strong-severe thunderstorms possible near and northwest of
the boston to providence corridor between 2 and 9 pm this evening
7 am update...

showers were lifting NE from eastern ny. A few of these showers
will impact western and northern ma through mid morning,
otherwise clouds should give way to partly sunny skies. Along
the immediate south coast and especially the islands, areas of
stratus and fog will be slower to burn off.

Temps in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s away from the south
coast will contribute to capes approaching 2000 j kg. No
changes to current severe weather threat. Timing looks like 3
to 9 pm.

Previous discussion...

a rather active night into very early this morning as a modest
southwest low level jet of 35 to 45 knots coupled with mucapes
of 500 to 1000 j kg, resulted in numerous showers along with
embedded thunderstorms. Localized brief heavy rainfall has also
been common with the activity.

This activity was beginning to diminish in intensity areal coverage
and should come to an end by mid to late morning. This a result of
the core of the low level jet shifting offshore coupled with
somewhat drier mid level air working into the region. Expect partial
sunshine to develop and result in summerlike warmth and humidity.

850t near +16c and southwest flow should allow high temperatures to
reach the middle to upper 80s. Dewpoints in the 60s should also
result in a rather humid day, something that we have not seen so far
this year. It will be cooler southeast of the boston to providence
corridor given the marine influence on gusty southwest winds.

Overall, expect mainly dry weather to prevail later this morning
into the early afternoon. Given the expected temperature and
dewpoints, we should see 1500 to 2000 j kg of cape. Decent jet
dynamics of 40 to 50 knots ahead of a pre-frontal trough along with
steep low level lapse rates are favorable for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms. The main area of concern is near and northwest of
the boston to providence corridor with the highest risk across
interior ma and ct. The timeline looks to be roughly between 2 and
9 pm this evening.

As we often see in our region, there are also some limiting factors
for severe weather. The biggest issue is that it is possible we see
too much mid level dry air overwhelm the updrafts. Some of the
guidance hints at this such as the href NAM indicating that the
strongest 2-5km updraft helicity will be to our north. If this
occurs, we may end up with just scattered showers and a few low
topped thunderstorms. However... Other high resolution guidance such
as the hrrr indicate that the instability and shear will be enough
to generate a few strong to severe thunderstorms right onto the i-95
corridor.

So in a nutshell, there is uncertainty but a risk for a few strong
to severe thunderstorms exists later today. This does not look like
a widespread outbreak, but the potential for localized damaging wind
gusts large hail exists. There is still a low threat for a
tornado... If any localized backing occurs given ample 0-3 km cape.

Lastly... Heavy rainfall may result in brief nuisance street flooding
and impact the evening rush hour.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
Tonight...

the threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms will come to an
end by mid evening as instability diminishes. Otherwise, much drier
air will work into the region behind a cold front late tonight. Low
temperatures should drop into the upper 40s to the middle 50s by
daybreak Tuesday and it will become a bit breezy.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Highlights...

* dry and windy Tue with more seasonable temps
* continued dry weather Wed into Thu with less wind
* a period of showers possible late Thu into early fri
* summer like warmth may return next Sunday
overview...

closed mid level low moving SE across maine Tue then lifting NE into
the maritimes Wed will lower heights across sne with NW flow aloft
bringing temps back to near seasonable normals. Anomalous
subtropical ridge builds across SE CONUS through the end of the week
and into the weekend bringing major heat to SE us. Sne will be on
northern periphery of the ridge and vulnerable to shortwave passages
given nearby polar jet. A fairly robust shortwave riding over the
ridge into new eng Thu night Fri will amplify trough to the east
and keep heat suppressed to the south, and also bring increased risk
of showers. Northern periphery of the SE CONUS ridge builds back
into new eng next weekend with another weak shortwave approaching.

Warmer temps return by Sunday.

Tuesday...

mid level low slides SE across maine with cooler and blustery nw
flow across sne. Cold pool aloft with -20c 500 mb temps remains well
to the north across northern new eng where best chance for a few
showers. It should be a dry day with a mix of Sun and clouds as
diurnal CU develops. Gusty NW winds expected during the afternoon
given decent cold advection and well mixed boundary layer. Soundings
support gusts 30-40 mph mid late afternoon. Near seasonable temps 65-
70, except cooler higher terrain.

Wednesday into Thursday...

high pres builds into the region resulting in less wind and temps
remaining near or slightly below normal. Lots of sunshine Wed then
increasing clouds Thu as mid level shortwave approaches from the nw
with warm advection developing. It should remain dry thu, but if
shortwave is faster than models indicate, a few showers could spill
into the region in the afternoon.

Thursday night into Friday...

fairly robust shortwave dives SE across new eng with attending
frontal wave moving across the region. This will lead to increasing
risk of showers Thu night which may linger into Fri morning, then
improving conditions as shortwave exits. Cooler Fri with easterly
flow bringing below normal temps. May end up cooler than forecast
with potential for 50s in eastern new eng.

Saturday into Sunday...

looks mainly dry Sat with seasonably mild temps as sfc ridge in
control. Another shortwave and approaching cold front may bring some
showers Sat night into Sun but this is low confidence. It does
appear that considerably warmer temps will return Sun with SW flow.

Temps should reach well into 70s with some 80s possible in the
interior.

Aviation 11z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ...

today and tonight... Moderate to high confidence. Ifr lifr
stratus and fog along the south coast will gradually improve to
vfr this morning but the stratus and fog will likely persist
over the islands. Southwest wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots
expected later this morning and afternoon.

The threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms is roughly
between 2 and 9 pm, near and especially northwest of the boston to
providence corridor. Areal coverage and intensity remains somewhat
uncertain, but something will have to watch closely and will result
in localized briefly lower conditions. Outside of that activity,
lower CIGS vsbys along the south coast in low clouds and fog should
improve overnight as winds shift to the northwest bringing drier air
into the region.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf. The main risk
for a strong thunderstorm will be between 21z and 01z.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf. The main risk
for a strong thunderstorm will be between 20z and 23z.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ...

Tuesday:VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Tuesday night through Wednesday:VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday night:VFR.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Thursday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Chance shra, isolated tsra.

Friday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ...

today... High confidence. Good mixing over the land should generate
near shore southwest small craft wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots today.

Long southwest fetch will also result in 3 to 6 foot seas. Small
craft headlines are posted for all waters. Lastly, areas of fog
will be locally dense especially this morning.

Tonight... High confidence. A few strong thunderstorms may impact
some of our waters adjacent to the eastern ma coast early this
evening. Otherwise... Winds shift to the northwest later tonight
with renewed 20 to 25 knot wind gusts developing by daybreak. Fog
during the evening across our southern waters should improve
overnight as drier air works into the region.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ...

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday night through Thursday: winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for anz230>236-250-
251-254>256.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Tuesday for anz237.

Synopsis... Kjc frank
near term... Kjc frank
short term... Frank
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc frank
marine... Kjc frank


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 16 mi34 min SSW 16 G 18 54°F 3 ft1009.4 hPa (+0.5)54°F
44090 18 mi54 min 51°F2 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 36 mi34 min SW 18 G 21 53°F2 ft1010.9 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 37 mi99 min WNW 5.1 65°F 1011 hPa62°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 40 mi34 min Calm G 1.9 59°F 52°F2 ft1008.6 hPa (+0.5)59°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 46 mi36 min 58°F 55°F1010.6 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 49 mi36 min SSW 11 G 19 61°F 56°F1011.3 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA8 mi28 minSW 136.00 miFog/Mist60°F57°F93%1009.8 hPa
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA20 mi32 minSW 10 G 192.50 miFog/Mist59°F57°F96%1011.2 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi28 minSSW 1310.00 miFair67°F60°F79%1010.1 hPa

Wind History from PVC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW8NW765NE7E9E9SE7S6SE7SE5SE5SE5SE5S6S7S9S8S8S10S12S11
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2 days agoS7SE5S7S14S10S10S15S13S11S10S9S10SW8SW9W12
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W9NW5N4NW3NW6NW10--NW7W6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Lighthouse, SE of, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Lighthouse
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Mon -- 12:50 AM EDT     9.15 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:12 AM EDT     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:28 PM EDT     8.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:22 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.79.18.46.94.72.30.2-0.8-0.40.92.856.987.975.43.41.50.30.51.73.55.6

Tide / Current Tables for Provincetown, Massachusetts
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Provincetown
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:55 AM EDT     10.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:18 AM EDT     -1.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:32 PM EDT     9.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:28 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.310.910.18.35.82.90.3-1.1-0.80.735.689.49.48.46.54.21.80.30.31.73.86.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.