Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Province, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 4:17PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 4:28 PM EST (21:28 UTC) Moonrise 10:08AMMoonset 7:53PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 358 Pm Est Tue Nov 21 2017
.gale warning in effect until midnight est tonight...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 358 Pm Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres off the mid-atlantic coast will yield weak southwest gales across the waters tonight. A cold front will approach southern new england from the west on Wed and combine with moisture moving up the east coast Thus bringing scattered showers throughout the day. The front will exit east of waters Wed night and be followed by gusty northwest winds. High pres will build over the waters Thu and Fri. Unsettled weather returns on Sat as low pres moves east across southern quebec. Gusty northwest winds follow on Sun ahead of high pres building over the nation's east. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Province, MA
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location: 41.99, -70.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 212048
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
348 pm est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
A cold front approaches the region tonight, and will combine
with moisture working up the eastern seaboard to bring a period
of rain through tomorrow morning, especially SE new england.

Quiet weather Thursday and Friday. Another shot of wet weather
and breezy conditions Saturday through Monday. Quiet and milder
Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly wet and breezy conditions again
Thursday.

Near term until 3 am Wednesday morning
Strong subsidence inversion in a regime of continually rising
heights this afternoon, have led to mainly skc conditions
outside of a few ci wisps. This has allowed bl mixing to push
into the inversion a bit further aloft than previous guidance
suggested, and led to some upper 50s and even low 60s for
afternoon highs especially away from the coastline, and in the
merrimack valley where some downsloping is occurring.

The sounding is gradually moisture loading from the top down,
but have noticed a recent gradual increase in sfc dwpts. The
response is a layer of ci building N from offshore, which
combined with the maintenance of a strong pres gradient should
limit evening decoupling somewhat especially S of the mass pike.

Mins will likely occur early in the overnight, before 3am once
the lower column moistens. Strong temp gradient will result,
with low 30s still possible across the N NW where some
decoupling is possible. Meanwhile, closer to the SE coastline
temps are likely to remain in the upper 40s and low 50s, given
an overall lack of setup for radiational cooling. Precip will
hold off through 3am, see below for more information.

Short term 3 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
Early am through Wed evening...

acute upper lvl shortwave will slide E late tonight from the
great lakes, deepening somewhat as it does so. Merging upper jet
setup will allow for ocean cyclogenesis off the mid atlantic s
of the carolinas after midnight in the equatorward entrance
region of the S jet. Meanwhile N jet is associated with slow
moving cold front attendant to low pres sliding through on qc
early am. All models except the ECMWF and many of its ensemble
members were initially keeping each of these features as fully
separate entities, even as coastal low pres develops an inverted
trof which will impact S new england. 12z guidance a bit more
favorable for at least some phasing of these features, closer to
the slower and more amplified ecmwf, which has been more
persistent. This forecast update will lean most heavily on the
ecmwf given its persistence with this features.

Early morning, moisture continues to increase through the column
as a prefrontal inverted trof and convergence zone develops
mainly across E ma ri. The moisture plume peaks with pwats
reaching 1.00-1.20 inches (nearly 2 std deviations above normal
after sunrise wed). The lift provided by the convergence
boundary and incoming front will lead to a band of light-
moderate rainfall developing early morning then peaking by mid
morning, especially across E ma ri. Lift moisture drops off
rapidly to the nw, so am still somewhat uncertain on exact
placement of the cutoff for precipitation. Will focus highest
categorical pops along the axis convergence in the ecmwf, mainly
e of a line from central ct through the worcester hills. By
afternoon, punch of dry air following the cold frontal passage
should allow for precip to rapidly end and skies to clear from
w-e, such that much of S new england may see the Sun before it
sets. This is a little bit slower, as the more robust ecmwf
suggests development of meso-low pres at the merger point,
slowing the pattern. Final QPF will be focused across E ma and
ri where peak moisture lift reside. Final totals approaching an
inch are possible, dropping off toward the nw. Will continue to
suggest a risk for ts, mainly in the e, where conditionally
unstable lapse rates occur thanks to anomalously high sfc dwpts
enhance the risk. This also suggests brief heavy downpours
possible during the am commute. Highs tomorrow will be mainly in
the low- mid 50s.

Tomorrow night...

skies clear rapidly behind the front through the evening, such
that mainly skc conditions are expected for most of the
overnight hours. Even though winds will briefly increase out of
the NW thanks to mixing enhanced by differential caa, am noting
enough slackening in the pres gradient by early morning to imply
radiational cooling. Therefore, min temps cooler than previous
night, with several locations dropping into the 20s by early
thanksgiving morning.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
* highlights...

- quiet weather for Thursday and Friday
- showers progged for Saturday night into Sunday, potentially breezy
- turning mild Tuesday into Wednesday, could also be breezy
- a potential near to above seasonable pattern into early december
* overview...

potential indications of a near to above seasonal pattern into early
december. Noting a +wpo trend with ec UKMET preference, signals of a
deamplifying N pacific trof-ridge-trof pattern, becoming more zonal,
a longer, fast fetch of mild pacific air aimed into canada. If model
stratospheric forecasts are any indication, the main low shifting
into NW europe with slightly higher heights over the conus, we lose
the arctic connection via NW fetch, flow more W sw, the ebb and flow
pattern as of late and likely to continue into next weekend relaxing
indicating possible milder intrusions with any disturbances sweeping
through the continued zonal pattern, lacking an arctic draw. Neither
atlantic nor pacific amplification in the long-range to indicate the
zonal pattern will end anytime soon as all other teleconnections are
near-neutral, subdued.

An overall quiet pattern, any disturbances progressive, separated to
a degree by the split-flow regime governed and slowly sliding E in
concert with a trof disturbance over the SE CONUS extending into the
caribbean. Warm intrusions ahead, cold air following behind. As it
was mentioned above, ebb and flow pattern continues. N S streams
mostly split, however closely watching a Saturday night into Sunday
disturbance. Touch upon any threats and or impacts in the discussion
below.

* discussion...

Thursday and Friday...

quiet. Cooler Thursday, NW winds, colder aloft. Highs below average.

Upper 30s to low 40s. High pressure, light winds, clear conditions,
opportune radiational cooling into Friday morning with lows in the
20s. Mild Friday, rebound with S winds, highs in the 40s, thickening
clouds late.

Saturday through Monday...

watching offshore storm development and parent winds. Progressive
flow through the split-flow regime, taking a page from the oncoming
disturbance within the next 24 hours. Wet weather late Saturday into
Saturday night, chance pops, could see decent rains. Breezy SW winds
in advance, not anomalously strong. More concerning is NW winds rear-
ward, rapid cyclogenesis occurring outside of the 40n 70w benchmark.

Undercutting colder air, steeper lapse rates into Sunday, possible
that with h85 winds in excess of 50 mph that we could potentially
mix-down gusts that suffice wind advisory criteria, gusts 46-57 mph.

An isallobaric component with pressure couplet. Cold air advection.

Additional energy acting upon any moisture, perhaps both showers and
winds linger into Monday.

Tuesday into Wednesday...

warm up. Return S flow as high pressure shifts e, have to closely
monitor its interaction with upstream disturbances, a subsequent sw
jet with tightening pressure gradient and whether it can effectively
mix down to the surface. Greater threat Wednesday. Mild, highs into
the 40s and 50s.

Thursday onward...

potential sweeping weather disturbance Thursday, however absent an
arctic connection as pointed out in the discussion above. Attendant
high pressure to follow of CONUS rather than canada origin.

Aviation 20z Tuesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... High confidence.

Through tonight...

vfr through at least early morning, with MVFR CIGS and ra
arriving mainly after 09z from the s. Areas W of a line from
ijd-orh-mht may keepVFR CIGS through sunrise. Winds remain sw,
with gusts 25-35 kt through this evening then gradually
dissipating overnight.

Tomorrow...

mixed MVFR ifr CIGS through the day tomorrow with ra and vsbys
1-3sm at times, especially E of the same line (ijd-orh-mht).

Areas W may remain mixed MVFRVFR with less ra. The rain clears,
and rapid improvement toVFR occurs after 18z from w-e as winds
shift to the nw.

Tomorrow night...

vfr. NW flow around 10 kt.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in overall TAF trends, timing of
lower categories early am may be off by an hour or two. Clearing
occurs mainly after 20z tomorrow.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Uncertainty in MVFR
cigs as CIGS could remain lowVFR and bulk of the ra remains e.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

thanksgiving day through Friday:VFR.

Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra.

Saturday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Sunday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ...

overnight into tomorrow... High confidence.

Last impulse of gale wind gusts to 35 kt out of the SW through
the evening, gale warnings continue as issued except boston
harbor narragansett bay where small craft advisories have been
issued. Winds may briefly drop even below small craft thresholds
early morning, but then rebound after sunrise. Once winds shift
to the NW tomorrow late afternoon evening gusts increase once
more, but should remain generally below gales. Seas drop
overnight but remain at or near 5 ft mainly on the SE waters. In
any case, small craft advisories will need to follow gales.

Rainfall fog over the waters early tomorrow.

Tomorrow night... High confidence.

Nw winds continue to gust to around 25 kt and allow seas to
briefly build to about 8 ft on the outer ocean waters. Small
craft advisories are likely to continue.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

thanksgiving day: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday night through Friday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning until midnight est tonight for anz231>235-237-250-
251-254>256.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for anz230.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Wednesday for anz236.

Synopsis... Doody sipprell
near term... Doody
short term... Doody
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Doody sipprell
marine... Doody sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 18 mi29 min 51°F3 ft
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 37 mi104 min 7 56°F 1019 hPa43°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 39 mi39 min SW 18 G 19 54°F 50°F3 ft1018.8 hPa (-0.9)50°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 40 mi39 min SSW 21 G 25 54°F 50°F4 ft1014.8 hPa (-0.3)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 46 mi41 min 55°F 49°F1018.6 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 46 mi85 min SSW 19 G 23 53°F 49°F4 ft1014.6 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 49 mi41 min SSW 8.9 G 17 56°F 47°F1019.5 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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W6
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G18
W15
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G17
W12
G24
W7
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G9
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W11
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W9
G17
W11
G19
NW15
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NW13
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G18
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G28
W10
G19

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA8 mi33 minSW 20 G 2610.00 miFair and Breezy53°F44°F72%1017.8 hPa
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA20 mi37 minSW 10 G 1910.00 miFair53°F46°F77%1019.1 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi33 minSSW 14 G 2310.00 miFair55°F44°F67%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from PVC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW16
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SW13W11W16
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SW14SW13SW10SW16
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SW19SW15
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SW13SW19
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--SW23
G30
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1 day agoW25
G33
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G36
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2 days agoS5SE5SE6S7SE7S10SW14SW13S12S13
G22
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G19
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G30
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G29
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G25
SW20
G27
SW18
G25
W21
G30
W24
G31
W20
G30
W19
G29

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Lighthouse, SE of, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Lighthouse
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:53 AM EST     7.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:46 AM EST     0.87 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:57 PM EST     8.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:53 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:18 PM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.17.46.95.74.22.61.20.91.73.14.76.47.78.17.66.44.72.91.20.20.41.52.94.6

Tide / Current Tables for Provincetown, Massachusetts
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Provincetown
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:56 AM EST     8.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST     0.90 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:01 PM EST     9.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:14 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:54 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:25 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
8.38.88.26.85.13.11.50.91.73.45.37.399.79.17.65.73.51.40.20.31.53.25.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.