Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Plymouth, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 4:19PM Monday November 19, 2018 3:45 PM EST (20:45 UTC) Moonrise 3:45PMMoonset 3:21AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 116 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
This afternoon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A slight chance of rain.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A weak weather system will move across the waters this afternoon bringing a chance of rain. Low pressure moves up from the midwest and passes along the south coasts of ri and massachusetts Tuesday morning and midday. This will bring another chance of rain tonight and Tuesday. High pressure then builds cold and dry weather for Wednesday through Friday...including thanksgiving day. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plymouth, MA
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location: 42, -70.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 192038
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
338 pm est Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis
Developing storm center tonight through Tuesday night will
bring accumulating snows mainly along and N of the ma-turnpike,
impacting the Tuesday am commute for some. Otherwise an all rain
or rain snow mix. Colder weather follows for Wednesday into
Friday, with the possibility of some snow squalls Wednesday.

Near term until midnight tonight
230 pm update...

break in the action. Between the waves, quiet conditions prevailing.

But precipitation moving back in during the evening hours, becoming
widespread towards midnight. Overall light to start, and we've got
some warmer air to overcome out ahead. Anticipating a start to
snow for the high terrain whereas as lower elevations around the
berkshires and worcester hills it'll start off as a rain snow
mix prior to the lower column cooling and snow prevailing. N winds
will be driving through this forecast period, no longer light and
variable, and likely wet-bulbing will prevail. Most of the impacts
along and N of the ma-pike, can't rule out some travel hazard
conditions developing especially in the way of reduced visibility.

Short term midnight tonight through Tuesday night
Tonight through Tuesday...

strengthening storm system across new england bringing accumulating
around 3-inch snows mostly N of the ma turnpike, especially the high
terrain. Tuesday am travel impacts with reduced visibility and snow
on area roadways for those areas noted.

Synoptically. Initial low sweeps new england with maturation further
downstream. Mainly open wave, not so much closed h925-85, tracking
over interior new england around the ma vt nh border, low level
convergent focus of the anti-cyclonic warm-moist conveyor belt out
ahead of a digging, sharpening mid-level trof axis and accompanying
vortmax energy. Initiated low to mid level thermal packing as well
as deformation frontogenesis beneath mid-level ascent and initial
diffluence aloft, majority low-level forcing up thru the dendritic
growth zone, h6-7, so not impressively deep. Omega values through
the column weak, especially through the dendritic growth zone which
happens to exhibit some fairly steep lapse rates. Overall, a decent
front-end thump leading out ahead of the surface to h85 low. The
storm becomes better organized through Tuesday as it exits into the
gulf of maine having swept across the CAPE cod canal around 1 pm.

Challenges. Thermal fields thickness tell the story. Right on the
freezing cusp with deeper arctic air absence n, hardly a N NE high
over canada. While N isallobaric flow, it'll only drain S surface
temperatures ranging around 30 with dewpoints a tad lower such that
wet-bulbing can only do so much. Low-level column nearly isothermal
up through h8, warmer air intruding as the h925-85 flow flutters
along the ma nh vt border, possibly some drier air working in
through the dendritic growth zone, while fluttering around freezing
as the event evolves into the daylight hours, dealing with forecast
headaches concerning precipitation types and snowfall accumulations
as well as snowfall intensity. Speaking of, as model forecast mass
fields look pretty similar, small-scale focusing forcing mechanisms
vary as discerned via model forecast plume diagrams. Considerable
spread in respect to liquid-equivalent precipitation and snowfall,
the latter ranging from sub-advisory to warning levels in particular
locations. Relates back to snowfall intensity, some low probability
of 1" hr noted in high-res guidance, and thermal field alignment as
to where the rain snow cut-off line will be at any one particular
time. Forcing majority is, however, below the dendritic growth zone
with this synoptic setup. Of last note, model forecasts assume that
everything which falls accumulates on the ground which we know is
not always the case. So it's definitely not easy but we're going to
do our best as we always do.

Decisions. Despite uncertainties and challenges noted, a consensus
weighted forecast does not seem like a bad idea. Gave greater weight
towards the href blended within. With probabilities noted, and the
19.12z forecast suite slightly jogging s, focus is around the ma
nh vt border. Coating N of the ma-pike, with 1-3" lower elevations
while 3-6" higher, 500 feet and above especially. Potentially near
warning-level snows up around the N ma towns of ashburnham, ashby,
and townsend. Keep with present N W ma winter weather advisories.

The storm center sweeping NE across the CAPE cod canal important
with respect to blustery N NE winds out ahead.

Impacts. Expect hazardous travel over N W ma especially the higher
terrain of worcester hills and berkshires. Route 2, western-half of
ma i-90, N ma i-95, i-190 out of worcester, and the NW beltway of
495 all have the risk of accumulating snows on roadways. Reduced
visibility as well especially within any moderate to heavy snow as
near 1" hr snowfall rates are possible. Thinking a very low risk of
any mixed wintry precip-types mainly in the form of freezing rain.

Tuesday night...

turning colder and drier. The storm continuing to deepen into the
gulf of me, blustery NW winds follow. Some lingering snow showers
possible, especially for the high terrain. Otherwise the main storm
is the driving cold along with breezy conditions that'll make it
feel 5 to 10 degrees colder than the forecast nighttime lows around
the low to mid 20s, possibly upper teens for the high terrain.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
4 am update...

highlights...

* arctic front late Wed with snow squalls possible
* near record cold & bitterly cold wind chills Wed night thanksgiving
* moderating temps and dry Friday into Saturday
* wintry weather possible Sunday
overview and model preferences...

the longwave trof which has been a persistent player in the
daily sensible wx across the northeast finally gets a break
later this period, but not before one last push of cold air. Two
mid lvl cutoffs fujiwhara near hudson's bay with one and its
attendant vort-max sliding close to new england Wed into thu.

The surface reflection is an arctic cold frontal passage wed.

This ushers in a very anomalous airmass with h85 temps nearly
-20c below seasonal normal values which will be with us for
Thursday into Saturday. Upper lvl ridge finally shifts e,
shifting the trof offshore by the weekend. However, it too
flattens as a second wave, linked more closely to the southern
stream per latest guidance moves in late weekend into early next
week. Given the guidance has been in fairly good agreement with
this arctic influenced pattern a consensus blend will be used
except for temperatures, which will feature the coldest of the
guidance wed-fri.

Details...

wed...

arctic cold frontal passage linked to acute, cyclonically-
curved shortwave rotating through the base of the longwave trof
mentioned above. The main issue will be the risk for snow
squalls. Soundings indicate a sfc-h7 which is both moist and
with potentially higher than dry-adiabatic lapse rates. With
this implied instability, cold air aloft and strong dynamic
cooling in play, could very well see brief bursts of heavy snow
impacting commuters. LLJ at the top of this well mixed layer is
around 40 kt, which could mix down some of this momentum to
accompany the snow. Hence the risk for squalls, this will be
something to watch given the typically busy travel day.

Thu...

core of cold air working E but as nearly 1040mb high pres and
deepening low pres in the maritimes combine to yield strong
pres rises note very breezy 20-30 kt winds at times as well.

Ambient mixed temps will struggle to break out of the teens and
low 20s, but with winds, expecting chill values int the single
digits to near 0f. With pres gradient weakening late Thu night,
some radiational cooling should allow ambient 2m mins to drop
into the single digits as well. Ocean effect sn for the outer
arm of the CAPE particularly thanks to +15c sst-h85 delta-t
values.

Fri and sat...

core of high pres slides across new england with the
continuation of dry wx. Temps moderate but remain well below
normal on fri, with highs only making it into the upper 20s to
low 30s. Overnight mins still cold given good setup for
radiational cooling once again. Highs moderate further sat,
reaching the low-mid 40s thanks to increase in mid lvl temps.

Sun into mon...

will be monitoring low pres development in convection near the
gulf of mexico, linked to a S stream shortwave. The track of
this feature is still uncertain given wide model spread and the
features not well sampled at this time. This will dictate
whether its an inland passage (warmer solution) or offshore
track (colder, but also a risk for a miss). Exact p-type details
will be worked out with time.

Aviation 21z Monday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

Rest of today...

mix MVFR to low-endVFR. Will hold ifr for the high terrain and
closer to the ma nh vt border with respect to CIGS and vsbys.

Light winds overall. Pockets -fzra for high terrain terminals
through 16z, otherwise -ra lingering through early afternoon
then a break before the next storm into this evening.

Tonight and Tuesday...

a mix of MVFR-ifr to start except SE new england terminals,
conditions lowering with onset ra sn. Sn for N W ma terminals
especially over the high terrain. Ra sn mix around the ma-pike
while rain elsewhere or transitioning to rain. Vsbys more than
likely impacted by sn. Can't rule out ifr-lifr conditions. N
winds prevailing, stronger NE along the E ma coastline as a
storm center passes over the CAPE cod canal around 18z. Gusts up
around 25 kts possible for E coastline terminals.

Tuesday night...

winds shifting NW as conditions improve towardsVFR, the 18z
storm center lifting out into the gulf of me. Gusts up to around
25 kts possible especially over the high terrain and along
coastline terminals.

Kbos terminal...

a break but CIGS only lifting 2-3 kft with a lull in outcomes from
earlier -ra. Then looking at lowering conditions evening and over-
night with snra mix through early morning before changing over to
all ra. MVFR-ifr CIGS and vsbys with increasing N NE winds through
the day shifting NW into evening and overnight. Gusts potentially
as high as 25 kts with NE winds around 18z before turning NW and
remaining blustery.

Kbdl terminal...

keep MVFR prevailing. Then lower conditions moving back in towards
evening continuing through overnight. Rasn mix right through the
Tuesday morning push, becoming all rain towards midday. Mostly ifr,
improving MVFR toVFR late Tuesday into Tuesday evening. N winds
throughout shifting NW late. Somewhat breezy, especially late with
potential gusts up to 20 kts.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ...

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Isolated shsn.

Wednesday night through thanksgiving day:VFR. Windy with gusts
to 35 kt.

Thursday night:VFR. Windy with areas gusts to 30 kt.

Friday:VFR.

Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shra or
shsn.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

Storm center passing over the CAPE cod canal around 18z Tuesday.

Will see increasing E NE winds out ahead especially over the e
waters, S SW for the S waters. Behind the storm center, winds
turning nw, remaining blustery. Throughout, gusts up around 25
kts possible. Can't rule out near gale force gusts. Small craft
headlines in effect for the later-half of Tuesday going into
Tuesday night as seas build up around 5 to 7 feet on the outer
waters.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ...

Wednesday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Isolated snow showers. Local visibility
1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts
up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Isolated snow showers.

Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thanksgiving day: strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough
seas up to 10 ft. Isolated snow showers. Areas of visibility
1 to 3 nm.

Thursday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Local visibility 1 to
3 nm.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Climate
With the potential of the coldest air of the season moving into
the region around thanksgiving, here are the record temperatures
for november 22nd and the holiday of thanksgiving.

November 22nd
location record low record minimum high
boston... ... ... .9 (1879) 24 (1880)
hartford... ... .14 (1969) 27 (1978)
providence... ..16 (1987) 30 (2008)
worcester... ... 11 (1987) 24 (2008)
thanksgiving
location record low record minimum high
boston... ... ... 11 (nov 27, 1873) 24 (nov 28, 1901)
hartford... ... .12 (nov 28, 2002) 27 (nov 23, 1989)
providence... ..14 (nov 23, 1972) 30 (nov 28, 1996)
worcester... ... .9 (nov 23, 1989) 22 (nov 23, 1989)

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 10 pm this evening to 5 pm est
Tuesday for maz002>004-008-009-026.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for
anz231>234-251.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm Tuesday to 4 am est Wednesday
for anz232>234.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm Tuesday to 1 am est Wednesday
for anz231-251.

Gale watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning
for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm Tuesday to 6 am est Wednesday
for anz235-237.

Gale watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening
for anz250-254>256.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Tuesday to 6 am est Wednesday
for anz250.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm Tuesday to 6 am est Wednesday
for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Nocera doody
near term... Sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Doody
aviation... Doody sipprell
marine... Doody sipprell
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 16 mi46 min 50°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 25 mi56 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 42°F 51°F1 ft1017.2 hPa (-1.3)41°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 25 mi56 min WNW 9.7 G 12 46°F 2 ft1017.2 hPa (-1.3)43°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 29 mi61 min 1.9 53°F 1017 hPa48°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 34 mi28 min 51°F 49°F1016.8 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 36 mi102 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 40°F 47°F2 ft1016.9 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 37 mi34 min 40°F 1017.8 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 38 mi26 min W 3.9 G 3.9 50°F 49°F1017.2 hPa45°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 39 mi28 min NNW 9.9 G 12 46°F 1017.3 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 39 mi34 min 46°F 50°F1017.6 hPa
FRXM3 40 mi28 min 46°F 39°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 47 mi28 min N 8 G 9.9 43°F 50°F1017.2 hPa
PVDR1 47 mi28 min N 5.1 G 6 43°F 1017.3 hPa40°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 48 mi34 min NE 6 G 8 43°F 47°F1016.9 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 49 mi46 min WSW 8 G 8 50°F 1017.5 hPa (-1.1)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 49 mi61 min NNE 6 46°F 1017 hPa39°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 49 mi34 min NE 7 G 9.9 44°F 1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA10 mi51 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy45°F39°F81%1017.3 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi54 minWNW 410.00 miOvercast49°F42°F77%1017.1 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA18 mi50 minNW 710.00 miOvercast47°F44°F90%1017.2 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA24 mi51 minW 510.00 miOvercast52°F44°F77%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from PYM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmE3SE3SE3SE3SE4S7S3S5W6W5W4
1 day agoW8W4W4W4SW3W6W7W5W6W3SW3W6W5W5W3CalmNW4NW4N55NE5NE5E4NE4
2 days agoW8W6W9W10W10W12W9SW12SW9SW7SW8SW6SW7SW6SW7SW8SW8SW10W13W11W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Gurnet Point, Massachusetts
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Gurnet Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:49 AM EST     1.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:21 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:02 AM EST     9.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:17 PM EST     0.97 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:18 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:23 PM EST     8.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.91.411.83.24.96.98.59.18.77.55.83.8211.32.54.167.88.98.77.76.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:21 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:05 AM EST     3.85 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:30 AM EST     -0.03 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:15 AM EST     -4.06 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:26 PM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:28 PM EST     3.77 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:18 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:47 PM EST     -0.03 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:35 PM EST     -4.17 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.82.83.63.93.73.22-2.1-3.5-4-3.9-3.2-1.823.23.73.73.32.5-1.4-3.3-4-4.1-3.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.