Wednesday, April26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Plymouth, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 7:39PM Wednesday April 26, 2017 1:57 AM EDT (05:57 UTC) Moonrise 6:09AMMoonset 7:54PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 144 Am Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Rest of tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Showers with a slight chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..SE winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Areas of fog. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Areas of fog. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Areas of fog. Patchy drizzle. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt...increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 144 Am Edt Wed Apr 26 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A late season coastal storm slowly tracks up the eastern seaboard overnight into Thursday morning. This low pres moves away from the waters early Thu...with a S wind developing. A front should stall over the waters Fri into Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plymouth, MA
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location: 42, -70.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 260151
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
951 pm edt Tue apr 25 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will slowly track up the east coast tonight into
Wednesday morning bringing periods of rain along with a few
embedded thunderstorms. Low clouds along with some drizzle and
fog are expected to linger Wednesday night into Thursday
especially along the coast. Very mild to warm afternoons should
return Friday and Saturday with the low risk for a few
showers/thunderstorms. Much cooler weather follows Sunday
especially on the coast. Another cold front will likely bring
more showers to the region sometime Monday into Tuesday.

Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/
***heaviest rain and greatest risk for isolated thunderstorms
between midnight and 9 am Wednesday morning***
1000 pm update...

overall trend in the forecast remains on track for tonight.

Precip continues to move northward as stacked low pressure
system off the north carolina coast begins to more northward
towards the region. Increase southeasterly LLJ will continue to
provide the lift in a very moist environment resulting in
continuous showers this evening. Overnight with the low gets
closer, approaching warm front combined with southerly flow will
help enhance precipitation and QPF amounts. Will have to watch
the convection potential that will help increase precip amounts
overnight and into Wednesday morning. But overall thinking from
prev forecast appears to be on track.

This moisture profile will also result in low clouds and fog,
especially once warm front moves in. While dense fog seems
unlikely, we will need to watch the morning commute for vsbys
issues.

Previous discussion...

previous forecast is in good shape with widespread light to
moderate rain showers covering southern new england early this
evening. The heaviest rain and the risk for isolated
thunderstorms will mainly occur from near midnight to 9 am wed.

This a result of low pressure moving up the mid atlantic coast,
allowing low level jet and forcing to increase along with some
elevated instability. Widespread 0.75" to 1.50" of rain
expected, but localized 2" plus amounts possible in any
convection. Highest risk for this will be across eastern ma/ri
where the stronger low level jet and higher pwat access resides.

There also may be some enhancement across ri/se ma as a warm
front lifts north towards 12z. In fact, portions of this region
may see temps rise to near 60 by daybreak, while the rest of the
region will be in the 40s to lower 50s.

Main concern will be for typical brief nuisance poor drainage
street flooding, especially if some of this heavy rain persists
into the Wed morning rush hour. However, significant flooding
is not expected given the system is fairly progressive.

Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through 6 pm Wednesday/
Models show the low pressure center to our south slowly moving
northward during the day, heading south of long island. The surface
low continues to weaken/fill. With the deeper moisture plume begins
to shift northeast of our area. May see an isolated rumble of
thunder early in the morning, otherwise anticipating some lighter
rain and perhaps drizzle for much of the day. Highest pops during
the morning, but precip chances persist thru the afternoon.

Long term /Wednesday night through Tuesday/
Highlights...

* low clouds/spotty drizzle Wed night+thu with cool temps on coast
* mild to warm afternoons fri/sat with a low risk for a few t-storms
* backdoor cold front brings much cooler temps by sun
* period of showers which may be briefly heavy sometime mon/tue
details...

Wednesday night and Thursday...

closed upper level low will linger off the southern new england
coast Wed night into thu. Model cross sections indicate a fair
amount of low level moisture lingering below the subsidence
inversion. Given overall setup and time of year, feel low clouds
will linger Wed night into Thu afternoon even across much of the
interior. There also should be areas of fog and drizzle, especially
on the coast Wed night and Thu am along with the risk for a spot
shower or two.

With that said, guidance is probably too warm with forecasted high
temps on Thu given expected low cloud cover. High probably remain
in the 60s for most of the region and perhaps stuck in the mid to
upper 50s along the coast. Now if more Sun is realized than expected
it still would be possible for portions of the interior to break 70,
but hedging cooler for now.

Friday and Saturday...

upper level ridge of high pressure building off the southeast coast
will be pumping higher height fields into southern new england.

Decent shot for high temps to reach the 70s to lower 80s away from
any marine influence along the coastline, especially the south coast
with south to southwest flow. Most of this time should feature dry
weather, but a few shortwaves will result in the low risk for a
couple of showers/t-storms. Greater chance of development would
occur if energy moves through closer to the time of peak
heating on Fri and sat.

Saturday night and Sunday...

despite abnormally high height fields, strong high pressure will be
building across eastern canada. This will likely send a backdoor
cold front south of the region late Sat or Sat night. Much cooler
temps are likely for Sunday especially along the coast where they
should remain in the 50s. Perhaps a few spot showers, but high
pressure may suppress most of the activity to our southwest.

Monday and Tuesday...

timing uncertain, but an approaching cold front will likely bring a
period of showers. GEFS anomalies signaling decent low level jet
coupled with fairly high pwats so the showers may be heavy for a
brief period of time. Again, timing uncertain and not expecting
both days to be total washouts. Temperatures also uncertain
given timing/wind direction.

Aviation /02z Wednesday through Sunday/
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Wednesday/...

tonight... High confidence. Mainly ifr conditions persist in
widespread rain showers tonight. Heaviest rain and greatest risk
for isolated t-storms will be from 4z through 12z Wednesday.

Llws will be a concern especially across the CAPE and islands.

Wednesday... Moderate confidence. MVFR-ifr CIGS continue with
areas of -ra/ra and patchy fog, especially across the eastern
half of southern new england. Reduced vsbys likely, down to ifr
in spots. May see areas of lifr CIGS across the higher inland
terrain and along the coast. SE winds gusting up to around 25 kt
across CAPE cod and the islands. Low risk of tsra early in the
day, especially the S coastal terminals. Llws impacts for the
cape and islands, and possibly as far north as bos, during the
morning hours.

Kbos taf... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Kbdl taf... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Outlook /Wednesday night through Sunday/...

Wednesday night into Thursday... Moderate to high confidence. Ifr to
even lifr conditions likely Wed night into part of Thu am along with
some fog, drizzle and a spot shower. Lower conditions most likely
on the coast. Conditions may improve to mainly MVFR by late thu
morning and afternoon.

Thursday night and Friday... Moderate confidence. MVFR/ifr
conditions likely in areas of low clouds and fog patches Thu night
into early Fri am. Improvement toVFR likely by Fri afternoon with
the low risk for a few showers and perhaps a t-storm.

Saturday and Sunday... Moderate confidence. VFR conditions probably
dominate.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Wednesday/... High confidence.

Small craft advisories remain in effect across all waters for
tonight into Wednesday. Low level jet of 50 to 60 knots lifts across
most of the waters tonight, but the mixing of those winds to the sea
surface is tempered by a strong temperature inversion. Hence, we
anticipate most wind gusts will top at around 30 knots. There is a
broad SE to ese fetch which due to its length and breadth may bring
8 to 10 foot seas into rhode island and block island sounds by late
evening even though the inversion will likely inhibit gusts much
higher than 30 knots. Winds and seas will gradually subside
Wednesday afternoon as the tighter gradient moves into the gulf of
maine and the coastal low gradually weakens as it drifts north.

Outlook /Wednesday night through Sunday/...

Wednesday night through Friday... Moderate to high confidence.

Despite wind gusts mainly 20 knots or less, left over southeast
swell will result in small craft seas persisting through Friday
across many of our outer and southern waters. In addition, areas of
fog may result in poor vsbys for mariners especially during the
overnight and early morning hours.

Saturday and Sunday... Moderate to high confidence. West to
southwest wind gusts to 20 knots Saturday will shift to the
northeast by late Sat or Sat night behind a backdoor cold front.

Overall, expect winds and seas to remain below small craft advisory
thresholds.

Tides/coastal flooding
* isolated minor coastal flooding impacts during astronomically
high tides tonight through Wednesday night along the east and
south coasts
we are entering a spring tide cycle with high tides that are
astronomically high. This combined with an anticipated storm surge
of around 1 foot may set the stage for isolated pockets of minor
coastal flooding along both south and east coasts around the time of
high tide this evening as well as possibly for the Wednesday day and
night tides as well. Have opted to renew the coastal flood
statement issued early this morning. One area that we are
watching a little more closely is the charlestown and westerly
shorelines along the ri southwest coast where the storm surge
may reach 1.5 feet by the time of the evening high tide near 8
pm. This reach of coastline can be vulnerable to an ese fetch,
although it looks like the highest surge and wave action will
occur after the evening high tide.

The combination of runoff from heavy rain and elevated water
levels near high tide this evening could exacerbate drainage of
fresh water in some coastal urban areas and near the mouths of
streams and small rivers.

We will need to continue to monitor the tides through at least
Wednesday night as there is not a significant offshore flow or
pressure rises to help evacuate a lingering surge. The astronomical
high tides remain very elevated through the end of the week.

Due to the breadth of the fetch, we may encounter enough wave action
with lengthening periods on top of an elevated tide to cause pockets
of erosion tonight through Wednesday night along the martha's
vineyard south coast, nantucket south and east coasts, and the outer
cape ocean side from truro to chatham.

Boston high tides (flood stage at boston 12.5 feet)...

11.47 feet / Tuesday 11:20 pm
11.15 feet / Wednesday 11:50 am
11.92 feet / Thursday 12:07 am
providence high tides (flood stage at providence 7 feet)...

5.98 feet / Tuesday 8:11 pm
5.53 feet / Wednesday 8:41 am
6.21 feet / Wednesday 9:00 pm

Box watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 3 pm edt Wednesday for anz231>234.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for anz230.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Wednesday for anz236.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for anz235-237-
250-251-254>256.

Synopsis... Frank/nmb
near term... Frank/dunten/nmb
short term... Nmb
long term... Frank
aviation... Frank/nmb
marine... Frank/thompson
tides/coastal flooding... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 16 mi24 min 44°F3 ft
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 25 mi68 min E 5.8 G 7.8 48°F 46°F6 ft1015.9 hPa (-3.0)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 29 mi73 min 6 52°F 52°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 34 mi40 min 52°F 48°F1014.2 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 36 mi114 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 48°F 45°F1016.8 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 37 mi40 min 48°F 47°F1016.6 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 39 mi46 min 54°F 49°F1015.1 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 39 mi40 min NE 12 G 13 53°F 1013.5 hPa
FRXM3 40 mi40 min 55°F 54°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 43 mi68 min 48°F3 ft1014.7 hPa (-2.1)
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 45 mi68 min ESE 18 G 19 49°F 44°F7 ft1016.4 hPa (-2.4)49°F
PVDR1 47 mi40 min N 8.9 G 12 51°F 1014.3 hPa50°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 47 mi40 min NNE 9.9 G 11 51°F 51°F1014.5 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 48 mi46 min NE 6 G 8.9 50°F 49°F1014 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 49 mi58 min E 18 G 20 52°F 1013.8 hPa (-2.5)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 49 mi73 min NE 8 52°F 1015 hPa52°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 49 mi46 min NE 8 G 9.9 51°F 1014.1 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA10 mi63 minVar 30.50 miLight Rain50°F50°F100%1016.6 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi66 minE 42.00 miRain Fog/Mist55°F54°F96%1016.1 hPa
Provincetown, Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA18 mi62 minESE 14 G 216.00 miFog/Mist53°F53°F100%1016.1 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA24 mi63 minno data1.50 miFog/Mist0°F0°F%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from PYM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE6NE9NE7NE6NE6NE7NE11
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1 day agoSW7SW6SW5SW6SW5SW5SW6SW7SW5S7SW5S86S8SE5SE7S54S4S3SE4S3SE3Calm
2 days agoNW4CalmW3W3W4CalmNW6N8N9E10NE8NE8CalmE8
G14
SE9S9S8S9S6S8SW8SW7SW8SW9

Tide / Current Tables for Gurnet Point, Massachusetts
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Gurnet Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 05:48 AM EDT     -1.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 11:54 AM EDT     10.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:06 PM EDT     -0.99 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.89.36.94.11.4-0.7-1.3-02.45.281010.79.87.85.22.50.1-1-0.22.14.97.910.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:44 AM EDT     -4.89 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:48 AM EDT     0.04 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:50 AM EDT     4.71 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:18 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 10:11 AM EDT     -0.20 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:07 PM EDT     -4.95 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:11 PM EDT     0.22 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:12 PM EDT     4.76 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:31 PM EDT     -0.16 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-4.7-4.9-4.3-31.53.64.54.74.43.51.4-3.1-4.5-4.9-4.7-3.7-1.53.14.34.74.63.92.4-2.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.