Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stevensville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 8:03AMSunset 5:50PM Monday January 22, 2018 5:17 AM EST (10:17 UTC) Moonrise 11:10AMMoonset 11:28PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 332 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until 7 am est this morning...
Today..South wind 10 to 20 knots. Areas of fog. Dense fog in the morning. Rain and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots veering southwest after midnight. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Snow showers and showers likely in the morning, then chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 12 feet occasionally to 15 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Tuesday night..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots through midnight. Slight chance of snow showers through midnight. Waves 6 to 10 feet occasionally to 13 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ043 Expires:201801221715;;816159 FZUS53 KIWX 220832 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 332 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ043-221715-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stevensville, MI
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location: 42, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 220856
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
356 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
Issued at 347 am est Mon jan 22 2018
periods of rain can be expected today as a large storm system across
the central part of the country tracks eastward. A warm front
lifting northward ahead of this system will provide very mild
conditions today with highs in the lower to mid 50s. Colder air will
work back into the region today and Tuesday with rain showers
changing over to some snow showers along with gusty west winds.

Little if any snow accumulation is expected on Tuesday however.

Conditions will dry out Tuesday night and Wednesday with near
seasonable temperatures before temperatures moderate once again
for Thursday and Friday.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 347 am est Mon jan 22 2018
early morning fog, periods of rain today, and very mild
temperatures will be the main weather stories for the short term
period.

Broad area of generally light rain showers developed earlier during
the overnight hours at leading edge of stronger low level jet with
axis of decent low level mass convergence. This axis of forcing has
now migrated across southern lower michigan and will continue to
lift northeast over the next few hours. Rainfall amounts with this
band appear to be in the 0.1 to 0.2 inch range. Additional showers
have developed across west central indiana into central illinois
in broader warm moist advection wing forcing with upstream system.

Area of heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms linger back
across central west central illinois where stronger frontal
forcing and more impressive upper dynamics are in place. Near term
progs of of mid-upper level q-vector convergence take strongest
upper forcing across northeast illinois into western lower
michigan, just grazing far northwest portions of the area.

Additional scattered showers will likely develop across the area
over next several hours due to broad advective forcing, but for
remainder of the area, will likely have to wait for this more
frontally forced precip and approach of upper trough for more
organized area of rain to shift west to east across the area. Have
continued to slightly lower storm total rainfall forecast amounts
due to glancing blow from initial stronger mid upper forcing.

Highest amounts still expected across the far north northwest
which will experience some contribution of stronger upper forcing
clipping the southern great lakes. Storm total rain amounts near
an inch are possible across the extreme northwest. A brief window
of weak elevated CAPE also may enhance rain rates in the 11z-15z
timeframe across these locations. Duration of these weak elevated
moisture profiles will be limited however. With higher end precip
looking less likely at this point, hydro impacts should be limited
to the possibility of some minor flooding at a few forecast
points later this week.

Other concern this morning is on lingering dense fog. Over past hour
or two, starting to see more dramatic effects of northward lifting
warm sector warm front, with rapidly improving visibilities
across central indiana, and now working into southern sections of
the forecast area as of 08z. Will allow dense fog advisory to
expire at 09z for southern portion of existing advisory, with just
a brief extension to 12z for the far north, although vsbys likely
to rapidly improve after 10z even across these locations as warm
front makes more steady progress northward.

Dry slot to overspread the area late morning into the afternoon as
system occludes with lull in precip coverage and likely transition
to drizzly type precip before wrap around moisture and mid upper
level height minimum tracks across central illinois this evening.

Vort lobe swinging through the parent upper circulation will result
in scattered-numerous rain showers tonight.

In terms of temperatures, very mild conditions today as region
briefly gets in more established warm sector, with temps probably in
the lower to mid 50s most locations by mid morning. Lows tonight
will drop back into the 35 to 40 degree range with eventual
transition to rain snow showers and then to snow showers for
Tuesday.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 347 am est Mon jan 22 2018
unsettled conditions persist into Tuesday as wrap around deformation
precip continues. Several factors still appear to be in place to
limit snow accumulations. Near sfc wet bulbs will remain on the high
side, and wet nature of snow should limit ratios. Mid level moisture
profiles in dgz also becoming increasing marginal, with transition
to synoptic scale forcing for descent mid upper levels later Tuesday
afternoon. If any snow accumulations do occur Tuesday, totals should
be generally less than inch. Cannot completely rule out precip
ending as some very patchy light freezing drizzle given dgz
saturation issues noted above, but expectation at this point is that
if this occurs, supported precip would be very light and of little
to no consequence.

The middle of the week will feature seasonable temps before another
moderating trend for Thursday and Friday. A weak ridge-riding wave
is expected to dig across the great lakes on Wednesday but moisture
profiles will be quite meager and will continue with just slight
chance snow shower mention downwind of lake michigan.

Precip chances ramp up again for the fri-sun period as a more
substantial eastern pacific trough shifts across western conus
pushes across the region. Cold advection behind this trough should
be short-lived as flow deamplifies preceding next pacific wave for
after this forecast valid period.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1253 am est Mon jan 22 2018
the warm front extending from a low pressure center over ia mo has
lifted into our far northern cwa, and will continue to lift out of
the area overnight. Continued warm moist air advection and
precipitation will allow for periods of lifr vlifr conditions
through Monday morning. Precipitation will continue overnight, but
become gradually more focused in our northwest (ksbn) towards
morning as the low pressure system occludes. The cold front will
swing through ksbn first this morning, and then into kfwa this
afternoon. So we may see a slight improvement to ifr MVFR for kfwa
during the morning, and in the late afternoon evening for ksbn as
the front exits the area. Additional shower activity is possible in
the wake of the front. Otherwise, llws tonight with the warm
front strong LLJ aloft at both terminals, which will end tomorrow.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... Dense fog advisory until 7 am est 6 am cst this morning for
inz003>007-012.

Dense fog advisory until 4 am est 3 am cst early this morning
for inz008-009-013>016.

Mi... Dense fog advisory until 7 am est this morning for miz077>081.

Oh... Dense fog advisory until 7 am est this morning for ohz001-002.

Dense fog advisory until 4 am est early this morning for ohz004-
005.

Lm... Dense fog advisory until 7 am est this morning for lmz043-046.

Synopsis... Marsili
short term... Marsili
long term... Marsili
aviation... Mcd
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 7 mi78 min ESE 1.9 G 5.1 46°F 1009.5 hPa (-2.7)
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 30 mi38 min E 11 G 13 44°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 30 mi28 min SE 14 G 16 49°F 49°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 43 mi38 min SSE 13 G 21 50°F 1007.5 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI10 mi25 minE 66.00 miFog/Mist47°F45°F93%1008.2 hPa
South Bend International Airport, IN22 mi24 minSE 6 miLight Rain47°F46°F97%1008.9 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE4SE4S6S6SE7SE6SE7SE4E5E5E5E6E5SE7SE6SE7SE5SE6SE6SE4E5E5E6
1 day agoSW15
G21
SW14SW14S7S7SW13SW13SW12SW11S7S5S6S5S5SE3S6S7S7S5S5S3S5S5SE3
2 days agoS7S7S7S6SW9SW12
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G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.