Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stevensville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:27PM Friday February 22, 2019 11:53 AM EST (16:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:21PMMoonset 9:35AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 323 Pm Est Mon Jan 28 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..Northwest wind 20 to 30 knots. Few gusts to 35 knot gales. Freezing spray. Snow showers through midnight. Snow showers likely after midnight. Waves 8 to 12 feet occasionally to 15 feet.
Tuesday..West wind to 30 knots. Few gusts to 35 knot gales. Freezing spray. Chance of snow showers through the day. Waves 8 to 12 feet occasionally to 15 feet.
Tuesday night..West wind to 30 knots. Gusts up to 35 knot gales. Snow showers. Waves 8 to 12 feet occasionally to 15 feet.
Wednesday..West wind to 30 knots. Gusts up to 35 knot gales. Snow showers in the morning, then snow showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 12 feet occasionally to 15 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 32 degrees...and 33 degrees off st. Joseph. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshiwx) issuance for the season due to increasing ice coverage and limited traffic on the nearshore waters. The nearshore marine forecast will be issued again by march 1st, 2019, or earlier if conditions warrant.
LMZ043 Expires:201901290530;;066235 FZUS53 KIWX 282023 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 323 PM EST Mon Jan 28 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ043-290530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stevensville, MI
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location: 42, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 221652
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1152 am est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 634 am est Fri feb 22 2019
skies will be fair today with light winds and highs in the upper
30s to mid 40s. A strong low pressure area will bring showers and
storms late Saturday and Saturday night followed by very windy
conditions accompanied by a light wintry mix Sunday.

Update
Issued at 1139 am est Fri feb 22 2019
update issued to hoist high wind watch for Sunday into early
Sunday evening.

Overall window for what would be considered high wind warning
criteria still looks limited to within the first 3 hours or so
after the cold front sweeps through and mixing is maximized. Nam
had backed off somewhat on higher gust potential but seems to be
trying to come back around to join NAM 3km and GFS with potential
for wind gusts to 60 mph. At this point, the more likely scenario
will be an eventual high end wind advisory but enough potential
to just run with a watch and let the overnight shift take a closer
look at trends. Will get into more details with the afternoon
forecast.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 338 am est Fri feb 22 2019
high pressure prevails today as temperatures warm into the lower
40s areawide. Surface winds will remain light as they shift out of
a more easterly direction. Cloud coverage will be on the rise
this evening and overnight as deep moisture advection migrates
northwards in response to an approaching strong upper low from the
southern high plains.

Long term (Saturday through Thursday)
issued at 338 am est Fri feb 22 2019
vigorous upper low will quickly lift from the southern high
plains Saturday morning into southern ia Saturday evening. Deep
moisture advection and approaching 115kt upper jet will cause
precip to slowly spread northwards Saturday morning before
becoming widespread by midday. While this precip will be
predominately liquid, there is potential for light freezing rain
mainly north of hwy 30 at the onset of precip as temperature will
be around freezing. This will be fairly brief as temperatures
will quickly increase above freezing through the morning hours.

Midday Saturday into Saturday night, deep moisture advection
continues as forecast pwats reach into the 1" to 1.25" range. This
presents the potential for locally heavy rainfall, especially
with embedded stronger storms. MUCAPE values will also be on the
rise throughout the day, but should remain less than 500 j kg.

However, this will still be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms.

With a strengthening LLJ throughout the afternoon evening hours
there is a possibility for isolated damaging wind gusts. The best
chance (while still low) would be with convection along the
leading edge of the cold front. Recent model trends have been to
slow the northward progression of the warm front which has limited
potential for strong storms across the southern counties.

Cold front enters the western counties around midnight before
moving east of the area early Sunday morning (see below for wind
concerns). Light lake effect showers are possible on the backside
of the surface low. Inversion heights are fairly low so any
additional accumulations should be light. As the day progresses, a
transition to snow is possible as temperatures aloft cool on the
back side of the surface low, which will be moving into eastern
ontario by this point. The combination of light lake effect snow
and strong winds could result in lowered visibilities primarily
for berrien county.

Slam dunk advisory level winds expected post-frontal early
Sunday into Sunday evening. There does remain a narrow window for
gusts up to 60mph immediately following the fropa. In this
window, isentropic decent is maximized to allow 50-55kt LLJ winds
to reach the ground. This window looks to be within the first 3
to 4 hours following the frontal passage. Outside of this window,
gusts will generally range from 45 to 55 mph due to the llj
lifting and the isentropic descent lessening. Given the brief
potential for warning level gusts, will hold off on a watch
product at this time and will continue to highlight the risk in
social media posts and the hwo.

Slightly below average temperatures expected for the start of the
work week with morning lows in the 20s to teens and daytime highs
near freezing. An elongated vort lobe moves across the upper
midwest Monday night Tuesday which may be sufficient to bring a
round of precip to mainly the northern zones. Towards midweek, a
trough moves across the northern plains and upper midwest to bring
another round of widespread precip chances.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Saturday morning)
issued at 630 am est Fri feb 22 2019
a surface high pressure area will drift across michigan today and
will continue to bring fair skies, light winds andVFR
conditions.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... High wind watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
inz003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

Mi... High wind watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
miz077>081.

Oh... High wind watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
ohz001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

Lm... None.

Update... Fisher
synopsis... Skipper
short term... Cm
long term... Cm
aviation... Skipper
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 7 mi54 min E 1.9 G 7 34°F 1030.5 hPa (-0.3)
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 30 mi54 min E 6 G 7 33°F 21°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 30 mi54 min E 7 G 9.9 31°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 43 mi54 min E 5.1 G 7 34°F 1031.2 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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E16
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E9
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G11
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G26
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G28

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI10 mi61 minE 99.00 miFair34°F19°F56%1031.4 hPa
South Bend International Airport, IN22 mi60 minESE 78.00 miFair32°F21°F66%1031.8 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW17
G25
SW16--W14
G23
SW14SW13SW7W10W8W653CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E5E9
1 day agoE16
G30
SE17
G25
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SE13SE8SE8S5SW18
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SW13SW13
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2 days agoSE7SW5S3N43CalmE7E5E5E5E7E6E6E6E8
G17
E9E10E12
G19
E12E10
G19
E11E15
G24
E21
G29
E17
G31

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.