Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Niles, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:55PM Monday January 22, 2018 8:11 PM CST (02:11 UTC) Moonrise 11:16AMMoonset 11:33PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 300 Pm Cst Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..South winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt by late evening. Areas of fog, with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Rain mixing with or changing to snow toward morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the late evening and overnight.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt. Chance of snow through the day. Waves 2 to 4 ft early, building to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
LMZ741 Expires:201801230430;;843921 FZUS53 KLOT 222100 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 300 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-230430-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Niles, IL
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location: 42, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 230005
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
605 pm cst Mon jan 22 2018

Short term
200 pm cst
through Tuesday...

low pressure is centered near des moines, iowa this afternoon with
a warm front draped across far northern illinois. In the
vicinity of the front, fog and drizzle will continue this
afternoon across far northern illinois while farther south dry air
wrapping in from the southwest has allowed partial clearing west
of the i-57 corridor. Temperatures and dew points are into the
upper 40s to low 50s within the warm sector and are superimposed
by steep low to mid level lapse rates this afternoon which are
contributing to a corridor of seasonably strong instability.

Midday soundings from dvn and ilx show MLCAPE values around 150
j kg while SBCAPE is closer to 600 j kg. Latest run of the rap
picks up on this axis of instability and shifts it east across the
cwa through the late afternoon and early evening ahead of an
advancing cold front, albeit with weakening instability as we get
past peak heating. Very strong winds aloft with 0-1km shear in
excess of 20kt and favorable effective SRH continue to prompt some
concern for a severe threat for any thunderstorms that make it
into the area this afternoon and evening, and an isolated tornado
remains a possibility. Convective initiation is already ongoing
near springfield, il with agitated CU field south towards st
louis. These storms will move north-northeast through the late
afternoon and evening hours within the aforementioned instability
axis though confidence in how well they will maintain their
intensity is fairly low by the time they reach the local cwa.

Late this evening and overnight, 500mb closed low will move across
the region and allow deeper moisture to return resulting in
periods of light rain. Forecast soundings eventually cool enough
for precipitation to transition to snow during the predawn and
early morning hours Tuesday. Models have been fairly consistent
showing axis of highest QPF near and north of the il wi state
line. As precipitation changes to snow, could see a dusting few
tenths of snow area-wide, but the best chance for any light
accumulations will be across the northern tier of counties where
up to an inch of snow is possible. Winds turn northwest behind
the departing low Tuesday morning and mid level moisture scours
out once more. Steep low level lapse rates redevelop in the
northwest flow and could result in a few additional flurries
during the late morning and afternoon. Temps will fall into the
low to mid 30s behind the cold front tonight and likely hold
fairly steady through the day tomorrow.

Deubelbeiss

Long term
140 pm cst
Tuesday night through Monday...

closed upper low continues to pull away from the region Tuesday
evening, with mid-level short wave ridging building briefly across
the area early in the night. Partial clearing of lower clouds is
possible during the evening in response to mid-level drying and
subsidence associated with strong h5 height falls (nearly 150
meters), though forecast soundings depict redevelopment of mid-
level clouds overnight as another mid-level short wave quickly
approaches. Clouds linger through the day Wednesday as the wave
propagates across the region, with a weak surface cold frontal
trough. Model soundings depict a relatively dry 900-700 mb layer
however, which suggests little precip threat despite cloudy skies.

Model 950 mb temps generally support daytime highs in the low-mid
30's.

Mid-level short wave and larger scale upper trough axis moves
east of the area Wednesday night. Medium range guidance is in good
agreement in building broad upper ridging east across the region,
with dry and milder conditions Thursday and Friday. Pattern is
progressive, with an upper trough developing eastward across the
central and northern plains, and an area of surface low pressure
which tracks into western ontario and trails a cold front through
the local area Friday night or early Saturday. Surface high
initially blocking gulf moisture return, and relatively quick
progression of upper flow, suggests somewhat limited precipitation
potential, especially with quicker cold frontal passage depicted
by the gfs. Slower ECMWF gem solutions would support a little
greater potential for rain especially across the southeastern part
of the CWA into Saturday. After 40's Thursday, and temps likely
near 50 Friday, timing differences with the cold front add lower
confidence to the high temp forecast Saturday, with 45-50 degree
highs likely east southeast of the advancing front.

Colder air spreads back in behind the front Saturday night,
though by the time precipitation ends in the southeast, model
partial thickness values would suggest precip type would likely
remain all rain. By Monday, even the slowest guidance (ecmwf)
moves the upper trough east of the area, with broad upper ridging
moving in aloft with weak high pressure ridge at the surface. Some
detail differences exist as expected by that time, though
generally it appears our colder air will result in temps around
average for late january. Pattern looks to remain progressive as
well, with milder air again early-mid next week.

Ratzer

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

several forecast concerns challenges this forecast period:
* showers and thunder this evening
* a band of light moderate, possibly heavy, snow tonight thru tue
am
* returning ifr ceilings, with lifr possible
* wind shift to the northwest Tue am
* continued scattered snow showers tue
latest radar imagery showing area of showers and thunderstorms
continuing to move across much of northern illinois. Rfd currently
being impacted but expect the remaining terminals to see this
precip over the next hour, with thunder still a possibility.

However, ord dpa have the highest chances of observing this
thunder along with a possibility of small hail. Showers will then
linger for 2-3 hours but should diminish in coverage after that
point, while conditions remain mainlyVFR. The arrival of colder
air and stronger forcing later tonight will support a window of
light to moderate snow, and have adjusted tafs to account for
latest trends. This will start earlier at rfd, but then spread
east southeast soon there after. Have higher confidence of snow
now occurring, but do think there could be a window of heavier
snow. Have lowest vis falling to 1sm, but vis below 1sm is
possible. Will need to monitor this period and potential snow,
especially as snow accumulation will be possible at the terminals.

Ceilings will fall under this snow, with ifr a definite
possibility. Lifr will also be possible. Conditions should improve
by early Tuesday morning, but with winds shifting to the
northwest and with periodic snow showers continuing throughout the
day.

Rodriguez

Marine
155 pm cst
main marine forecast concerns focus on deep area of low pressure
which will move across southern lake michigan tonight. In
addition, areas of locally dense fog were in place across southern
parts of the lake, where 40-50 degree dew point air has spread
north over the colder waters. Strong northeast winds currently
occurring across northern parts of the lake will gradually back
northerly and increase more solidly into gale range through early
Tuesday morning as the low moves through, and will increase to
gale strength over the southern portion of the lake Tuesday
morning as the low pulls off to the east. Gale warning headlines
are already up for the north half, though there winds are largely
just below gale force this afternoon. A gale warning is in effect
for the southern part of the lake starting early Tuesday morning,
and headlines for the entire lake will run through 00z 6 pm cst
tomorrow. A dense fog advisory remains in effect into this evening
on the south end of the lake.

The low will eventually move off across the st. Lawrence valley
Tuesday night, with weak high pressure ridging spreading across
the western lakes Wednesday. This will allow winds to diminish to
less than 20 kts, and eventually back to the south-southwest by
early Thursday. Deep low pressure is expected to develop in the
lee of the northern rockies Thursday night, which will induce
increasing south-southeast winds. A period of southerly gales is
possible Friday through perhaps early Saturday, after which a cold
front will shift winds to the west.

Ratzer

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Dense fog advisory... Lmz777-lmz779 until 9 pm Monday.

Gale warning... Lmz777-lmz779... 3 am Tuesday to 6 pm Tuesday.

Small craft advisory... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742... 6 am Tuesday to 4
am Wednesday.

Small craft advisory... Lmz743-lmz744-lmz745... 6 am Tuesday to 10
am Wednesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 9 mi131 min SE 21 43°F
OKSI2 12 mi131 min ESE 4.1 46°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi41 min WSW 20 G 23 46°F 45°F
CNII2 15 mi11 min WSW 8.9 G 17 43°F 36°F
JAKI2 20 mi131 min S 6 51°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 24 mi41 min SW 17 G 24 44°F 998.4 hPa40°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 25 mi31 min W 8.9 G 14 44°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 41 mi71 min NNE 4.1 G 5.1 36°F 997.6 hPa (+0.0)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 43 mi31 min SW 21 G 32 51°F 999 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL5 mi20 minW 18 G 2510.00 miOvercast and Breezy42°F37°F82%998.9 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL9 mi19 minWSW 11 G 2410.00 miOvercast44°F39°F85%999 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL15 mi18 minW 20 G 2710.00 miOvercast and Breezy44°F37°F79%999.6 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL24 mi19 minWSW 15 G 248.00 miLight Rain40°F37°F93%999.2 hPa

Wind History from ORD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4SE6SE6SE3SE4SE8SE7NE6E5E9SE10SE15S12
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S13S16S12S11S10SE9W14
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1 day agoS6S5SW5S3S3CalmSE4CalmSE3S5S4S5CalmCalmSE4SE4SE3CalmSE3E5E5NE4E5NE4
2 days agoSW17
G28
SW17
G24
SW15
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SW13SW12SW10SW10SW9SW7SW7SW5SW7SW7SW7SW7SW7SW8SW10SW7SW8SW4S4S10SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.