Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Niles, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:14AMSunset 8:32PM Friday June 23, 2017 8:52 AM CDT (13:52 UTC) Moonrise 5:02AMMoonset 8:02PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 414 Am Cdt Fri Jun 23 2017
Today..North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest 10 to 15 kt late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ741 Expires:201706231515;;682619 FZUS53 KLOT 230914 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 414 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-231515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Niles, IL
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location: 42, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 231153
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
653 am cdt Fri jun 23 2017

Short term
258 am cdt
today and tonight...

primary concern in the near term is with the passage of a cold
front across the forecast area today, and convection trends
especially this morning along and ahead of the front.

Early morning surface analysis depicts low pressure over
southeast wi southern lake michigan, with a cold front trailing
to the west and southwest from southern wi and eastern ia into the
central plains. This front is progged to push southeast across
the forecast area this morning, clearing the southeast by early
afternoon. Thunderstorms along ahead of the front will spread
southeast across the area early this morning, and may present a
locally heavy rain and sub-severe gusty wind threat early. Weak
low-level lapse rates and stronger mid-level winds lagging behind
the convective line for the most part should substantially limit
any severe threat. Winds shift to the north-northwest behind the
front, with a gradual filtering of cooler drier air into the
region. Partly sunny skies by afternoon should still support
afternoon temps around 80, except near the lake in northwest
indiana where northwest onshore winds are expected. Il shore may
see north-northwest winds turn north-northeast with a bit of a
lake breeze late. Clearing and cooler tonight as temps fall into
the 50's, and a modest west-northwest breeze.

Ratzer

Long term
258 am cdt
Saturday through Thursday...

period of cooler weather will be in place across the area this
weekend and into the start of next week. Appears to be a potential
for a few scattered diurnal showers especially Sunday, though
otherwise pleasantly dry with dew points in the in the 40's and
temps in the 70's. Warmth and humidity then gradually increase
again mid-week, along with a scattered thunderstorm threat.

Series of mid-level short wave disturbances are progged to slide
across the upper midwest western lakes region this weekend, as
building upper ridge along the west coast induces amplification of
downstream trough across eastern north america. Diurnally steep
low level lapse rates are evident in forecast soundings, with a
gradual cooling of mid-level temperatures noted late Saturday with
vort digging across the area. Despite fairly dry low levels with
dew points in the mid-upper 40's, a few isolated-scattered showers
may spread into mainly far northern il during the late
afternoon evening hours, especially in GFS depiction of deeper
(but still weak) instability. Similar scenario persists Sunday and
Monday, as additional vort energy digs southeast across the
region. Despite the potential for these isolated-scattered
convective showers, many dry hours are likely, and coverage will
be lower the farther south you go. Highs over the weekend will be
a good 15 degrees or so cooler than the past few days, with 850 mb
temps cooling to +6 7c Saturday and +5 6c Sunday. This would
support high temps only in the low-mid 70's, with some locations
across far northern il topping out only around 70 especially where
greater stratocu coverage is likely.

Western CONUS upper ridge eventually builds eastward with time as
flow pattern is progged to become more progressive mid-week. This
results in building heights subsidence and surface high pressure
developing across the region Tuesday. Building mid-level heights
will support warming surface temps, with highs expected to be back
around the 80 degree mark. Surface ridge moves off to the east of
the area Tuesday night, with a return to southerly winds coming
on Wednesday. GFS and ECMWF both depict a short wave advancing
through the more zonal upper pattern across the upper midwest
Wednesday into Thursday, with surface low pressure tracking north
of the lakes. Warmer and more humid air mass will support an
increasing thunderstorm threat by this time, and into the end of
the week as a trailing cold front slowly sags into the region.

Ratzer

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

showers and thunderstorms are exiting the terminals early this
morning. Winds have shifted northerly with some variability
between northwest and northeast and expect this to continue for a
few hours yet, though expect north or northwest to prevail by mid
morning. Ceilings are tricky with them largely having scattered but
this is likely temporary and expect MVFR to return for the
chicago NW indiana metro area while rfd may remainVFR. Am also
concerned about a brief period of ifr developing with scattered
clouds in the 600-900 ft range being reported. Will carry MVFR
with scattered ifr clouds until mid morning then improve things
but this will likely need refinement. By afternoon, ceilings
should not be an issue but will need to watch wind direction. A
lake breeze may develop but may not make much inland progress.

Confidence in how this plays out is not great. If the lake breeze
does form then there may be a tendency for a more westerly wind
component at ord mdw as the convergence develops. Will need to
watch this closely.VFR will prevail tonight and Saturday morning
with a steady west to northwest wind.

Mdb

Marine
307 am cdt
low pressure over far southern james bay will move east across
northern quebec today. The trailing cool front will move across
southern sections of lake michigan this morning as a secondary
area of low pressure moves from southern wisconsin into lower
michigan. Winds will likely fluctuate during the day staying
primarily west or southwest across northern sections and northerly
then northwesterly across the south. It is possible that wind
speeds will be light enough to allow winds across the southern
part of the lake to become onshore for a time this afternoon. A
prevailing west to northwest wind will set up this evening and
trend westerly Saturday. Another low will bring another cool front
down the lake Saturday night as high pressure across the plains
drifts east. This will set up a decent pressure gradient for a
time into Sunday morning. Yet another weak low is expected to
cross the lake early Monday before the high moves across into
Tuesday. Another series of low pressure systems are forecast to
track across the upper lakes starting mid week next week with
strong southerly winds setting up ahead of them.

Mdb

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 9 mi113 min NNW 8 64°F
OKSI2 12 mi113 min N 6 66°F
45174 12 mi33 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 65°F 64°F1 ft64°F
45177 13 mi173 min 64°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi53 min N 16 G 17 64°F 64°F
CNII2 15 mi38 min 65°F
JAKI2 20 mi113 min N 2.9 66°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 24 mi53 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 67°F 1005.5 hPa (+2.1)67°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 25 mi73 min N 5.1 G 8 64°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 41 mi53 min WNW 1.9 G 5.1 66°F 1005.4 hPa (+1.7)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 43 mi73 min SW 6 G 7 66°F 1005.4 hPa
45170 48 mi33 min W 9.7 G 14 66°F 67°F1 ft65°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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N5
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SE1
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NE5
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL5 mi62 minNNE 810.00 miOvercast68°F63°F84%1005.3 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL9 mi61 minN 410.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F64°F93%1005.9 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL15 mi60 minNW 78.00 miOvercast69°F66°F93%1004.6 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL24 mi61 minNNE 710.00 miOvercast67°F66°F97%1005.3 hPa

Wind History from ORD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11SW15
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S14SW13S16SW13
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NW11NW4NE8
1 day agoE7SE9E7S9SE7SE4S8E11E11E11E10SE8SE6SE8SE7SE5SE7S4S9SW11
G18
SW10SW9
G17
SW12
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SW9
2 days agoW14
G19
W14W12W14NW11N7NE16NE15
G22
E12E12E8NE9NE5E6N4CalmCalmCalmN4N3CalmCalmNE3E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.