Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Niles, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 5:35PM Saturday February 23, 2019 9:13 AM CST (15:13 UTC) Moonrise 11:37PMMoonset 10:11AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:201902231630;;377322 Fzus53 Klot 230938 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 338 Am Cst Sat Feb 23 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-231630- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 338 Am Cst Sat Feb 23 2019
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through late Sunday night...
Today..East winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain in the morning, then numerous showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..Southeast winds 20 to 25 kt becoming southwest gales to 35 kt after midnight. Patchy fog in the evening. Periods of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday..West gales to 45 kt. A few storm force gusts to 50 kt possible. Scattered rain and snow showers in the morning. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Sunday night..West gales to 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Wave forecast is for ice free areas
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Niles, IL
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location: 42, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 231230
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
630 am cst Sat feb 23 2019

Short term
320 am cst
through Sunday night...

a potent winter storm will track across the region through Sunday,
bringing periods of rain today and tonight, some snow showers Sunday
morning, and very strong winds late tonight through Sunday.

Synopsis: a strong, negatively-tilted trough over northern nm early
this morning will track NE to the great lakes region through Sunday
morning. An associated surface low will gradually deepen over the
central great plains today, then quickly deepen to around 980mb near
far northern lake michigan by Sunday morning.

Near-term through 15z: a short-wave trough near northwest mo early
this morning will continue to force a shield of precip NE that will
edge into the NW half of the CWA through this morning. As of 3am,
surface temps continue to tick up above freezing for nearly the
entire cwa, with upstream temps also above freezing. However,
surface wet-bulb temps remains slightly below freezing across the nw
cwa. With precip expected across the NW counties by 12z, am still
anticipating a risk of some patchy icing before wet-bulbs temps rise
above freezing by 15z. Road temps appear to be generally in the low
to mid 30s, supporting at least some icing risk. Have ultimately
trimmed the winter weather advisory to ogle, winnebago and boone
counties given the current trends in temps and precip.

Wind: E to ese winds of 10-15mph with infrequent gusts to 20mph are
expected through the day today. Winds will then veer from SE to sw
this evening, with gusts to 30-35mph across the SE half of the cwa,
as the surface low passes to the nw. West winds will then quickly
increase to 30-35mph with gusts of 50 to possibly 60mph late tonight
through Sunday morning as in impressive pressure gradient and
associated pressure falls of 13-16mb over 6 hrs shift across the nw
half of the cwa. Forecast soundings indicate mixing into 50-55kt
winds as low as 900hpa amidst strong CAA throughout the day Sunday.

Guidance remains varied on longevity of the strongest winds,
including the period of potential warning criteria speeds gusts.

There is some indication that this may end up being a long-duration
high-end advisory event with a 3-6hr period of winds meeting warning
criteria Sunday morning when the strongest CAA aligns with the best
isallobaric wind. After collaboration with neighboring offices,
decided to hold on to the current high wind watch given
uncertainties in timing, longevity and magnitude, and the fact
conditions are still 24 hours or more out. This will still allow the
next shift to digest 12z data and issue a warning, if necessary,
with plenty of lead-time.

Precip snow: as noted before, the precip shield should affect mainly
the NW half of the CWA through this morning. Meanwhile, broad waa
will support pockets of light rain across the SE half of the cwa. An
arc of significant low-level moisture transport will shift NE across
the CWA late this afternoon through this evening. This will support
a round of widespread showers, potentially heavy at times across the
entire cwa. As the surface low passes NW of the CWA late tonight and
a mid-level dry slot crosses all but the NW portion of the cwa,
expect precip to change to either light rain or drizzle. CAA will
quickly take hold late tonight, transitioning any remaining rain to
snow by 12-14z Sunday. The southern extent of the upper trough's
deformation zone will likely clip the north half of the CWA during
the morning. A period of snow showers will combine with the strong
winds to create very poor visibility and possibly briefly hazardous
road conditions through at least mid-morning Sunday.

Thunder: mid-level lapse rates steepen in conjunction with the
aforementioned increase in low-level moisture transport late this
afternoon through this evening. A few embedded rumbles of thunder
will be possible across the CWA during this time. There is some
concern that some of these showers storms could bring down gusty
winds, particularly across the far SE cwa, as winds at 925-850hpa
vary from 35 to 50 knots.

Kluber

Long term
245 am cst
Monday through Friday...

high pressure expected to build across the region at the start of
the period, but with the CWA likely remaining on the edge of this
feature during this time. As this occurs, west northwest flow
will allow some weak energy to traverse the region, with some
upstream light snow development possibly moving across the region
on Monday. Any snow that does approach the area will likely be
weakening, and at this time, don't anticipate much of any precip
development over the cwa. A fairly similar pattern expected on
Tuesday and Tuesday night, though backing low mid level winds
could support WAA with slightly higher snow chances. Guidance
varying slightly with overall pattern by Wednesday, but most
showing the possibility for a stronger wave to move across the
region and help provide additional precip chances by midweek. A
lull in the activity is possible by late in the work week, but
with an active pattern possibly returning once again during the
weekend. Below normal temps are expected through much of the
period.

Rodriguez

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

active period expected across the terminals:
- ifr lifr ceilings this morning through tonight.

- possible dense fog this afternoon and evening.

- chance of thunderstorms this evening.

- low level wind shear this evening.

- strong westerly winds Sunday morning.

- chance of snow showers Sunday morning.

Radar imagery showing a large area of precip moving into northwest
and north central il early this morning. Expect this to primarily
impact rfd for the next several hours, with vis and ceilings
likely lowering. Temperatures have warmed up above freezing this
morning across many locations in northern il and northwest in, and
think the threat of any freezing rain is lowering this morning.

This rain will then likely move across the remaining terminals
later this morning, with a similar trend with the ceilings and vis
expected. There is some potential for a little bit of a lull this
afternoon but in this lull, there will be increasing potential
for dense fog into the early evening. Rain chances increase once
again this evening, as well as the potential for thunder.

Confidence is lower with regard to exact timing and duration of
any thunder, but do have confidence that thunder will at least be
across the area this evening and have included a vcts. The
potential for thunder should be confined to small window of around
2-3 hours. Expect rain to depart during the overnight hours, but
with returning chances for snow showers into Sunday morning.

Expect varying wind direction later this evening into Sunday
morning, with a wind shift to the west then expected. As this
occurs, winds will quickly increase with gusts well above 40kt for
a good portion of the day Sunday.

Rodriguez

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Winter weather advisory... Ilz003-ilz004-ilz005-ilz008 until 9 am
Saturday.

High wind watch... Ilz003-ilz004-ilz005-ilz006-ilz008-ilz010-
ilz011-ilz012-ilz013-ilz014-ilz019-ilz020-ilz021-ilz022-
ilz023-ilz032-ilz033-ilz039... 3 am Sunday to 9 pm Sunday.

In... High wind watch... Inz001-inz002-inz010-inz011-inz019... 3 am
Sunday to 9 pm Sunday.

Lm... Gale warning... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742-lmz743-lmz744-lmz745... 3 am
Sunday to 3 am Monday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 9 mi133 min ESE 14 34°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi43 min ESE 9.9 G 11 35°F 31°F
CNII2 15 mi28 min E 8 G 9.9 33°F 29°F
JAKI2 20 mi133 min ESE 5.1 G 5.1 35°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 24 mi43 min E 8 G 12 36°F 1015.2 hPa31°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 25 mi33 min E 7 G 8.9 33°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 41 mi73 min ESE 12 G 13 34°F 1017.6 hPa (-2.7)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 43 mi33 min SE 8 G 13 38°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL5 mi22 minE 55.00 miLight Drizzle38°F28°F70%1015.9 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL9 mi81 minSE 44.00 miUnknown Precip36°F28°F73%1017.9 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL15 mi80 minSE 98.00 miOvercast37°F28°F70%1017.6 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL24 mi81 minE 65.00 miLight Rain36°F28°F73%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from ORD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E6E6NE5E6E9E8E7NE10E10E11E7E9E7E9E8E8E10E11E11E11E10E11E5
1 day agoW15W14W11W10
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W11W11W6W6W6W5W5W3NW4NW6N5N6N4N3N4N5N5N5
2 days agoE16SE12SE9SE6S6S11
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SW9W8SW7SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.