Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Niles, IL

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Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:44PM Monday August 20, 2018 2:00 AM CDT (07:00 UTC) Moonrise 3:57PMMoonset 12:57AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 922 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 19 2018
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast 15 to 20 kt overnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 kt. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers through the day. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft in the afternoon. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
LMZ741 Expires:201808200900;;924076 FZUS53 KLOT 200222 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 922 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-200900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Niles, IL
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location: 42, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 200658
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
158 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018

Short term
241 pm cdt
through Monday...

for the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening, the
main concern will be isolated showers developing on the lake breeze.

Latest radar imagery indicates a few isolated showers developing in
a weak convergence zone along the lake breeze boundary. Expect
that coverage will generally remain sparse and end with sunset as
the boundary and associated convergence wash out. As of 2:15 pm,
no lightning has been observed with the showers, but the potential
for some lightning cannot be ruled out with 500 j kg of mixed
layer CAPE noted on the latest SPC mesoanalysis.

The remainder of the overnight hours should be relatively quiet,
with less potential for widespread fog to develop overnight as
increasing sely winds develop in the early morning hours and an
increasing cirrus canopy overspreads the region from the next
upstream system.

An unseasonably strong low pressure system is taking shape over
eastern kansas this afternoon. The models have been relatively
consistent in the track and strength of the system, though the
latest runs are trending slightly faster. Expect that shra tsra
should begin to spread from southwest to northeast across the area,
behinning by arnd daybreak in the pontiac metro area and then
spreading into the chicago metro area by arnd noon. The airmass
associated with this system is still expected to be anomously moist
with pwats arnd 2 inches. The coverage and duration of
thunderstorms embedded within the main rainshield is the most
significant question mark, especially the amount of instability that
may occur. Widespread rain and extensive cloudcover could limit
destabilization, but should some breaks in the clouds develop,
especially in the afternoon, there will be greater thunderstorm
potential and the chance for some storms to become strong to severe
as there should be moderate shear with sely 10-15 kt winds at the
sfc and swly winds of 35 kt at 500 mb. The more pressing concern
may be the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding. The main
limiting factor for flooding potential could be that the area has
seen little widsespread rain and only pockets of heavier rain.

However, with pwats at 2 standard deveiations above normal, the
potential for heavy rainfall and, at least, localized flooding will
need to be closely mornitored tomorrow and into tomorrow night.

Long term
241 pm cdt
Monday night through Sunday...

the primary concern for the period beyond Monday would be
associated with the upper low clearing the area during the day
Tuesday. Most of the week then appears to be dry and on
the seasonably cool side, with the next weather system not
approaching until Friday into Saturday.

On Monday evening, the center of the upper low and axis of the
associated trough would still appear to be upstream of the local
forecast area. This will support continued shower and thunderstorm
chances into early Tuesday, with locally heavy rain remaining
a possibility.

By midday Tuesday this feature has shifted east of the area and weak
ridging is indicated aloft together with low level advection of
drier and cooler air. Models show some additional shortwave energy
aloft moving through later in the day Tuesday, but given the
unfavorable low level thermodynamics the additional development that
afternoon and evening looks to be scattered at most. The exception
could be in areas of northwest indiana downstream of the relatively
mild lake where lake induced instability may support more widespread
shower activity Tuesday afternoon and evening.

After Tuesday evening, a dome of high pressure moves into the area
and remains overhead through late in the week. On Wednesday the mild
and dry northerly flow on the leading edge of the high should keep
most locations in the mid 70s. By Thursday and Friday the center of
the high moves east of the area putting us in warmer and more humid
flow again.

Models disagree on the evolution of return flow and increased
precipitation chances late in the week. The faster ECMWF has
activity developing early Friday while the GFS focuses more on
Friday night into Saturday. Taking both into account spreads the
chances from Friday morning into Saturday afternoon with the peak
period being Friday evening. Much could change between now and then
of course. Additionally, the driver for this activity at this range
appears to be a warm front associated with the warm and moist gulf
air, ushered through the area by a center of low pressure moving to
our north. Following the passage of this feature, warmer and more
humid conditions would be in place for the weekend, with a return to
the middle or upper 80s.

Lenning

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

a rather complicated weather set-up is expected to unfold today
as a strong low pressure system by late summer standards nears
from the west. Dry andVFR conditions are expected at all sites
through the morning amidst strengthening E ese winds.

Multiple rounds of shra and, at times, TS are expected this
afternoon and evening. A broken line of shra with embedded ts
should move NE across all sites early to mid afternoon, with the
most likely timing of 19-22z at ord mdw. After a potential lull in
activity another cluster of shra with the possibility for some ts
should shift E across NE illinois and NW indiana around this
evening. Any shra or TS this afternoon and evening has the
potential to produce very heavy rain and significantly reduced
vis. Also, any TS will be capable of strong winds.

Shra will diminish and TS potential should end overnight Monday
into Tuesday as the low-pressure tracks NE over or near rfd. Ifr
ceilings will be possible late Monday night as this occurs.

Kluber

Marine
159 am cdt
an unseasonably strong low pressure system will track from nw
missouri early this morning to southern lake michigan late tonight,
to southeast ontario Tuesday afternoon. SE winds of 20-25 knots are
expected for the south half of the lake today and this evening, with
a brief period of winds to 30 knots possible early this evening.

Across the north half of the lake, south winds to 15 knots will
gradually become NE to 20 knots through this evening. After the low
passes over the lake from roughly kenosha to muskegon overnight, n
winds to 30 knots with occasional gales to 35 knots can be expected
across much of the lake late tonight through Tuesday evening.

This afternoon and tonight, thunderstorms on the far southern
portion of the lake will be capable of producing waterspouts.

Additionally, showers on Tuesday across much of the lake may result
in a few waterspouts.

Winds will gradually diminish to under 20 knots by Wednesday
afternoon as high pressure begins to build across the region. Sw
winds will then increase to 25 knots across the north half by
Thursday evening, and become southerly to 30 knots across all of the
lake Friday afternoon through into Saturday ahead of another low
pressure tracking NE across the upper ms river valley.

Kluber

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Beach hazards statement... Ilz006-ilz014 until 1 am Tuesday.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 9 mi121 min SE 18 76°F
45174 12 mi21 min SE 14 G 18 77°F 77°F2 ft72°F
45177 13 mi121 min 77°F1 ft
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi31 min SE 20 G 23 77°F 68°F
CNII2 15 mi16 min ESE 9.9 G 11 74°F 65°F
JAKI2 20 mi121 min SSE 1.9 G 13 77°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 24 mi31 min SE 9.9 G 14 76°F 1013.6 hPa67°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 25 mi21 min SE 13 G 16 77°F
45186 25 mi21 min SE 12 77°F 77°F2 ft
45187 34 mi21 min 77°F 76°F2 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 41 mi61 min SE 17 G 18 76°F 1014.2 hPa (-0.7)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 43 mi21 min 74°F 1014.6 hPa
45170 48 mi21 min SE 9.7 G 14 74°F 77°F1 ft66°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL5 mi70 minESE 810.00 miOvercast75°F66°F74%1013.4 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL9 mi69 minE 510.00 miFair75°F69°F82%1013.9 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL15 mi68 minESE 710.00 miOvercast76°F66°F72%1012.9 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL24 mi69 minSE 56.00 miFair with Haze74°F68°F82%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from ORD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmNW4N4N4NE5E4SE44SE3E3SE8E11E11E10E9E8E8E8E5E6SE8SE7
1 day agoN5N6N6N5N5N6N9N8N12NE13N10NE8NE11NE9N10NE9NE8NE9NE6N6NE6NE4CalmN6
2 days agoCalmN4SW3SW53NW3W3CalmCalmSW3W4E8E4N3NE8NE11NE8NE6NE7NE8NE10NE5N4N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.