Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Niles, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:13PM Thursday May 23, 2019 2:18 AM CDT (07:18 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:27AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:201905231015;;304785 Fzus53 Klot 230207 Aaa Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast...updated National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 907 Pm Cdt Wed May 22 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>743-231015- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor-calumet Harbor To Gary- 907 Pm Cdt Wed May 22 2019
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt becoming 10 to 20 kt toward daybreak. Patchy fog late. Showers and Thunderstorms increasing in coverage after 11 pm. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northeast after midnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Niles, IL
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location: 42, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 230535
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1235 am cdt Thu may 23 2019

Mesoscale discussion
711 pm cdt
a few showers and storms developed a bit earlier across portions
of northeastern missouri, but have struggled to maintain intensity
as they progressed into northern illinois, likely as they outran a
narrow plume of increased low-mid level moisture. With limited
instability present across our region, think the severe threat in
the immediate term (over the next hour or two) appears fairly
low although a stronger storms will be possible across our
northwest.

However, strong flow in the 850-700 mb layer will continue to
transport a higher theta-e airmass into the region over the next
several hours along with an associated uptick in elevated
instability. Based on the most recent guidance, it appears as if
the most favorable axis of moisture and instability will develop
essentially across the southeastern half of the CWA (perhaps from
a la salle to midway line). Farther to the north and west of this
line, increased westerly flow aloft should drive a drier airmass
eastward, reducing the amount of instability available to support
more robust thunderstorm development.

The kinematic environment will be favorable for severe storms,
with deep layer shear values pushing 50-55 kts at times. Recent
point soundings reveal a lingering layer of warm air in the mid-
levels centered around 500 mb, which will limit the overall amount
of instability this evening, but steep lapse rates do exist in
narrow layers under 500 mb which, when combined with the
aforementioned robust deep layer shear, will support rotating
thunderstorms with a potential for large hail (quarter to golf
ball sized based on ship parameters). In addition, recent cam
guidance suggests a propensity for storms to quickly grow upscale
into a surging MCS later tonight, which could deliver an
increasing threat for strong to locally damaging wind gusts
potentially for locales along and east of i-55 later tonight.

Current thinking is the main window for severe weather across our
region will be during the 9 pm to 3 am timeframe or so.

While plenty of clockwise curvature is noted in regional
hodographs this evening, we believe the tornado threat will remain
tempered somewhat by a lack of truly surface-based instability as
the low-levels begin to decouple with the loss of daytime
heating. That said, if a surging line of storms can get going, any
segments that orient in a more NW to SE manner would have access
to ample low-level shear for a spin-up qlcs tornado, once again
mainly for locales east and south of i-55.

Finally, while a threat for heavy rainfall exists, the push of
westerly momentum aloft should keep things moving along tonight--
especially if a MCS materializes as many of the cams indicate. As
a result, while locally heavy rainfall will be possible but this
threat should remain fairly localized and there are no plans to
hoist a flash flood watch at this point.

Carlaw

Short term
206 pm cdt
through tonight...

massive long wave trough covering about the western 2 3rd of the
u.S. Has multiple smaller scale circulation pivoting within the
broad upper trough. Pronounced upper low evident on water vapor
imagery is beginning to shear out over the upper mississippi
valley and northern plains early this afternoon. Water vapor
imagery does show jet streak nosing east from the central high
plains to the mid-mississippi valley early this afternoon, which
is resulting in strong kinematic fields for mid-late may over the
region. At the surface, warm and moist air is surging north on
gusty southerly winds across the region with a cold front laid out
from iowa south to southeast kansas.

On goes-16 differential water vapor imagery, there does appear to
be a subtle shortwave trough on the southern periphery of this
jet. Numerical guidance seems to be keying in on this relatively
subtle looking disturbance as the impetus for widespread
convective development, initially over ozarks, then continuing to
develop northeastward ahead of the cold front into northern and
central il this evening. Convective allowing models are
forecasting a fairly high coverage of storms, however, this
activity is progged to be well ahead of the front, so given the
somewhat nebulous forcing could see more discrete or semi-discrete
convection initially before activity likely begins to congeal
into a more linear feature late this evening into the overnight
hours.

There could be a short window early in the event where we could
see a supercellular tornado threat in our southwest CWA before
boundary layer cooling leads to convection becoming rooted above
the boundary layer. However, the greater threat will likely be
from large hail and damaging winds. Given the very strong shear
profiles (0-6k bulk shear values 50-60kt) and mucapes progged to
increase to over 2000 j kg, am quite concerned with the large hail
and damaging wind threat tonight.

While storm motion tonight should be such that there doesn't look
to be a threat for training cells, rap and NAM forecast pwats
approaching the 99th percentile for mid-late may with values
progged to approach 2". In addition, high freezing levels (>13kft)
should allow for deep warm rain processes, meaning storms tonight
could be very efficient rain producers. One and three hour flash
flood guidance is generally between and inch to an inch and half,
which storms tonight potentially reaching those values. Considered
a flash flood watch, particularly for southern and eastern
portions of the area, but given the threat for training not
looking particularly high, opted to hold off for now. Thinking any
flash flood threat tonight will be on the lower end of the
spectrum and fairly localized, with greater chance of urban &
small stream flood advisory type minor flooding.

Convection should begin to weaker overnight as low level jet
veers and atmosphere slowly stabilizes, with storms likely moving
out toward or just past 12z Thursday morning.

- izzi

Long term
250 pm cdt
Thursday through Tuesday...

the theme of the extended will be several days of more
spring early summer-like temperatures, occasional periods of
showers or storms (though not a total wash out), then a return to
seasonal or slightly cooler conditions to wrap up the holiday
weekend.

We should be able to wring out a pretty nice day on Thursday. Most
of the convective activity will be finished by daybreak tomorrow,
possibly a few lingering showers east of the chicago area. In
spite of having a frontal boundary clip the area, fairly warm
airmass will remain in place across the region and we should have
plenty of sunshine. Therefore expect another warm day with
readings in the lower to mid 70s north to low 80s north.

An upper ridge will slide overhead tomorrow night, and this will
shift surface high pressure off to our east. The effective front
will lift back north as a warm front late tonight into Friday.

This will bring convective chances back to the lower great lakes.

The stronger low level jet will focus along the mississippi valley
and points east, but the warm front will not completely clear the
area, some of this activity will sneak into our area, especially
for areas north and west. With the frontal position fairly
close by, there could be at least showers with this initial wave
Friday morning.

The ridge will flatten Friday night into Saturday and place the
effective front, and northern periphery of the ridge, in a more
precarious position for increased shower and thunderstorm
concerns. While it does not appear it will be raining all the
time, those with outdoor plans should keep an eye of the weather
as the airmass will be fairly moist (pwats above 1.5" at times)
and subtle waves can easily produce heavy rainfall and lightning
and may be tough to time, through most of the holiday weekend.

The first period of concern will come late Friday into Saturday
where severe storms may be possible upstream toward the
mississippi river, but could still pose some risk in our area
Friday night. Corfidi vectors suggest some training storms in a
very high pwat airmass again of 2" or more, or near highest values
for late may, will pose a heavy rainfall flooding threat before
the forcing weakens. After this, model placement of the effective
front is a bit more nebulous, but this will play a significant
role in precip chances through the weekend.

It will also remain mild through Saturday, though Sunday model
guidance does shove the front a bit farther south leading to a
likely cooler day Sunday with more of a northerly wind, and cooler
onshore flow at the lakefront also. Challenging to get into
specifics, but this same theme of seasonal temperatures and
chances of storms still hold for memorial day and even into mid
week.

Kmd

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

1235 am... Primary forecast concern is thunderstorms over the next
few hours.

A broken line of thunderstorms over north central il will move
east across the chicago terminals over the next few hours. Very
heavy rain with ifr vis is likely with the strongest storms. An
outflow wind shift westerly is possible but so far have not seen
any significant winds with activity that will be moving toward the
terminals. End time may need some minor adjustments but activity
should be east of the terminals by 09z... Likely sooner.

Gusty south southwest winds will continue ahead of this line of
storms with winds shifting west southwest by morning. Westerly
winds will increase later this morning with gusts into the lower
mid 20kt range. These winds will slowly diminish during the
afternoon and become northwesterly under 10kts this evening. A
wind shift to northeast is expected this evening.

Additional concerns are low clouds moving in off the lake tonight
into Friday morning along with the next wave of showers and
scattered thunderstorms which currently looks to be after 12z for
the chicago terminals. Will take a closer look at these conerns
with the 12z tafs later this morning. Cms

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45174 12 mi19 min SSW 16 G 23 2 ft1014.1 hPa (+3.8)
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi29 min WSW 19 G 23
CNII2 15 mi19 min SSW 5.1 G 15 71°F 65°F
JAKI2 20 mi79 min WSW 12 G 17 73°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 24 mi31 min SSW 14 G 18 71°F 1010.6 hPa68°F
45186 25 mi19 min S 12 G 16 60°F 49°F2 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 25 mi39 min SSW 25 G 34 67°F
45187 34 mi19 min SW 7.8 G 18 61°F 48°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 41 mi19 min W 13 G 16 64°F 1010.5 hPa (-0.7)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 43 mi17 min S 12 G 16 70°F 1011.2 hPa
45170 48 mi19 min S 16 G 19 65°F 53°F2 ft62°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL5 mi28 minSW 910.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain70°F66°F87%1009.9 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL9 mi27 minSSW 13 G 209.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Light Rain71°F66°F84%1010.1 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL15 mi26 minSW 12 G 1810.00 miThunderstorm Light Rain72°F68°F87%1010.2 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL24 mi27 minSSW 117.00 miThunderstorm70°F64°F84%1010.1 hPa

Wind History from ORD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE13SE19
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1 day agoNE13NE9E10E12E10E14E15E11E11E11E14E13E17
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--NE3
2 days agoW15
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W8NW11NW15
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NW14NW11NW8N10N8N9N8NE7NE11NE7NE7NE8E9NE64N3N5NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (3,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.