Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Estral Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 9:02PM Monday May 29, 2017 11:14 AM EDT (15:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:09AMMoonset 11:49PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 438 Pm Edt Sun May 28 2017
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters... The areas affected include... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 437 pm edt...doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms... Capable of producing winds to up 30 knots and small hail. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 12 nm west of lake erie metropark harbor to 29 nm west of north cape...moving east at 25 knots. Locations impacted include... Grosse ile...elizabeth park marina...gibraltar...estral beach... Bolles harbor of refuge...woodland beach...stony point...monroe harbor...detroit river light...luna pier...lake erie metropark harbor...detroit beach...north cape...wyandotte...reno beach and the ambassador bridge. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 pm edt for southeastern michigan...the adjacent waters of lake erie...and the adjacent waters of lake saint claire. Lat...lon 4173 8350 4193 8338 4196 8329 4202 8324 4225 8318 4234 8309 4238 8295 4240 8294 4239 8290 4235 8293 4232 8306 4224 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201705282215;;361084 FZUS73 KDTX 282038 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 438 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 LCZ423-LEZ444-282215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estral Beach, MI
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location: 42.02, -83.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 291109
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
709 am edt Mon may 29 2017

Aviation
Dry air has infiltrated the region resulting in little to no cloud
fraction this morning. Only exception are some patches of midcloud
altostratus that has been filling in at times. One patch is exiting
the thumb, while another is making a run for far southeastern
michigan. Fairly inconsequential, but will have to be accounted for
today. Otherwise, static westerly flow around southern periphery of
ontario closed low will lead to breezy gradient winds over the
terminals. High confidence in exceeding 20 knots, moderate
confidence in reaching and exceeding 25 knots. Antecedent ground
moisture from precipitation yesterday will help in a diurnal cumulus
response today, although dry nature of airmass overhead will lead to
very high mixing heights with cloud bases at 6.0 to 7,0 kft agl. Low
chance for showers today. Best potential now appears set for the
southern TAF sites with as a 700-600mb moisture axis under favorable
deformation lifts into the area. Have accounted for the
precipitation mention with a prob30 group.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 335 am edt Mon may 29 2017
discussion...

upper low centered just north of lake superior will broaden with the
addition of upper energy dropping through central canada and the
northern plains. This system will encompass the great lakes through
early Wednesday as it slowly wobbles east across ontario.

Upper shortwave pivoting around the low center will swing across
lower michigan today, with a narrow ribbon of theta-e advection
streaming into michigan ahead of it. Lapse rates will steepen with
daytime heating, and as upper cold pool associated with the low
slides in overhead. This looks to generate 500-1000 j kg of sbcape
by afternoon, providing a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Expecting just a scattered coverage with forecast soundings showing
saturation only between 800-600mb, and a boost from a strengthening
jet streak rounding the base of the upper low.

Breezy conditions will develop by this afternoon as southwesterly
gradient tightens between low pressure over ontario and high
pressure over the gulf states and tennessee valley. Gusts look to
reach between 25 and 30 knots by afternoon as the mixed layer
deepens and winds aloft strengthen slightly. Well-mixed boundary
layer and h925 temps rising to between 16-18c should boost max
temperatures into the mid 70s to near 80.

Chances for showers, or even a thunderstorm, tomorrow and Wednesday
look lower compared today as moist layer looks fairly shallow. Will
retain very low pops however as weak shortwaves look to continue
streaming over the area from around the upper low to our north. Cold
air advection will make for cooler temperatures, with MAX temps
reaching the mid 60s to near 70. Breezy conditions will also
continue as surface features remain fairly stagnant. Upper low will
finally lift out of the area Wednesday night, with high pressure
providing dry weather into Thursday.

Quite a bit of uncertainty then as we head into the end of the week
as an upper ridge builds through the plains and into central canada,
and a strong upper low drops through ontario and quebec. Medium-
range models are still struggling with where to place the larger
features, making it difficult to pinpoint where an active frontal
zone will set up from late Thursday into the weekend. Model
solutions currently range from southern michigan to the southern
ohio valley. Latest GFS euro support better chance for
showers tstorms on Friday, with at least some of the weekend under
high pressure as the frontal zone sinks to our south.

Marine...

west to southwest winds will increase today as an upper level low
pressure system settles into the central great lakes. Wind gusts
look to increase to around 20 knots for much of the marine areas.

The exception is over saginaw bay where a small craft advisory has
been issued for this morning through Tuesday evening as winds will
likely reach and exceed 25 knots this upper level low pressure
system is expected to become a persistent feature this week, possibly
reorganizing again late this week and upcoming weekend.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt Tuesday for lhz421-422.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Hlo
marine... ... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 14 mi35 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 65°F
45165 23 mi25 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 68°F 64°F1 ft58°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 28 mi45 min WSW 5.1 G 8 70°F 1010.1 hPa54°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 32 mi75 min SW 9.9 G 9.9 64°F 1010.2 hPa (+1.3)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 35 mi75 min SW 7 G 9.9 69°F 1009.8 hPa (+1.3)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 40 mi45 min SSW 5.1 G 8 69°F 1010.7 hPa57°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 47 mi35 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 62°F 59°F1010.6 hPa58°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI6 mi82 minWSW 310.00 miFair68°F55°F65%1009.5 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI15 mi81 minSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F56°F66%1009.8 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI17 mi82 minSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F55°F61%1009.5 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI24 mi82 minSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds69°F57°F66%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S5S9S6S9S6CalmS9S3S4S6S5S4S3W3W3W3W5W4W4W5W8W6S6
1 day agoS6S7S6S8S8S8S6S5S5S5SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmE3E4CalmNE4E5E4E5E5E3
2 days agoNW7W5W6NW9NW6W5S7S4S3S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmNE3E4CalmE3E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.