Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Estral Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 8:19PM Thursday August 24, 2017 12:53 AM EDT (04:53 UTC) Moonrise 8:51AMMoonset 9:08PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0047.000000t0000z-170822t1930z/ 329 Pm Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
.the special marine warning will expire at 330 pm edt... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion)... St. Clair river... The showers have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4261 8252 4255 8259 4254 8266 4238 8282 4230 8309 4224 8313 4204 8315 4208 8323 4225 8318 4233 8311 4239 8295 4254 8291 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4264 8256 4287 8251 4285 8247 4276 8247 time...mot...loc 1929z 282deg 33kt 4269 8239 4251 8265
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201708221939;;235791 FZUS73 KDTX 221929 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 329 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017 LCZ422-423-460-221939-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estral Beach, MI
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location: 42.02, -83.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 240432
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1232 am edt Thu aug 24 2017

Aviation
Light winds and mostly clear skies expected to hold during the night.

There is low chance for radiation fog developing across northern
taf sites toward sunrise and or MVFR stratus developing off lake
huron, but will maintain just a scattered wording for now. Otherwise,
increasing high clouds toward morning expected to help mitigate fog
potential at TAF sites, but fnt and ptk stand the best chance of
seeing a vsby restriction. A solid mid deck of clouds should be
around during the morning hours, with some CU up around 5000 feet by
afternoon, with isolated showers possible once again, mainly across
thumb region. Light northerly flow off lake huron post sunset may be
able help sustain sct-bkn 4-5 kft clouds during the evening.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceiling 5000 feet this afternoon into the evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 355 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017
discussion...

quiet stretch of weather at least through the weekend as expansive
area of high pressure tracks across ontario and the northern great
lakes before stalling slightly over quebec and the NE CONUS for a
couple more days. Positioning of the high will send steady feed of
cool and dry air into the region. This will result in temperatures
remaining a few degrees below normal for the coming week. Normal
highs are around 80 and lows are around 60.

The mid levels are a bit more exciting with a compact vort max
diving through southern mi Thursday. This wave is the next trough to
rotate around the dominate upper level low lifting NE out of western
quebec. This wave will increase cloud cover over SE mi Thursday
morning with a small chance of seeing some isolated showers in the
afternoon. The early morning clouds may prevent any shallow fog from
developing. Moisture depth is thin with pwats only around a half
inch. Better chance of precip will occur across the eastern thumb as
northern flow behind the trough axis excites lake effect clouds and
possibly some showers as cool air advects over the warm lake.

After Thursday the high will take a firm grasp over the area with a
mid level shortwave ridge working into the great lakes. Upper level
flow becomes very weak across much of the country as strong
westerlies emerge across canada. This is where model solutions start
to diverge. A mid level wave will cut off over the midwest and try
to drift into the state but may take a few days with no steering
flow. One thing to watch will be remnants of the developing tropical
system harvey over the western gulf of mexico. Airmass will be quiet
dry early next week when the trough tries to drift across lower mi,
but if the system finds itself a bit further north and east after
making landfall, the trough may be able to tap into it for moisture.

Marine...

the pressure gradient is forecasted to weaken considerably tonight
in response to surface high pressure finally building into the
central great lakes. Northwest winds tonight are expected to ease
into the 15 to 20 knot range. A secondary cold front structure is
expected to push southward and release off of lake huron during the
day on Thursday. Winds are forecasted to veer to the northeast
during the afternoon and range between 10 and 15 knots. Cooler air
and lift along ahead of this boundary may create a favorable
environment for waterspouts, especially where any land breeze
development is possible. High pressure will eventually settle
overhead by Friday, bringing enough dry air to inhibit cloud
formation and produce favorable wind and wave conditions through the
weekend.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sf
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 14 mi54 min NNW 12 G 15 70°F
45165 23 mi34 min NW 12 G 14 69°F 75°F2 ft57°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 28 mi54 min NW 5.1 G 8 64°F 1015.3 hPa (+0.6)52°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 32 mi54 min N 6 G 8.9 69°F 1014.4 hPa (+0.8)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 35 mi54 min NNW 4.1 G 11 65°F 1015.9 hPa (+1.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 38 mi54 min N 12 G 14 67°F 73°F1014.4 hPa (+0.6)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 40 mi54 min N 7 G 9.9 71°F 1015.3 hPa (+0.6)57°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 47 mi44 min N 9.7 G 12 71°F 74°F1014.5 hPa54°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI6 mi61 minNNW 710.00 miOvercast67°F52°F60%1015.2 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI15 mi63 minNW 310.00 miFair60°F53°F80%1015.2 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI17 mi61 minN 910.00 miPartly Cloudy65°F51°F61%1015.5 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI24 mi61 minNNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F54°F75%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W3NW5W5W3W5NW4NW4NW5NW12
G16
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NW10NW7NW9NW6CalmN5N5N8
1 day agoSW5SW8SW8SW9
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S7S5S7S5SE5S6S11SE8S8S6SW6S7S7W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.