Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Estral Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 7:52PM Saturday March 25, 2017 11:45 AM EDT (15:45 UTC) Moonrise 5:10AMMoonset 4:15PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0004.000000t0000z-170301t0900z/ 349 Am Est Wed Mar 1 2017
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. A severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 400 am est for southeastern michigan. Lat...lon 4172 8346 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4196 8328 4201 8325 4204 8315 4200 8313 4190 8325 4189 8331 4182 8337 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 0846z 274deg 49kt 4211 8288 4163 8356
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201703010858;;822801 FZUS73 KDTX 010849 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 349 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017 LCZ423-LEZ444-010858-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estral Beach, MI
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location: 42.02, -83.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 251412
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
1012 am edt Sat mar 25 2017

Update
Sustained strong mid level frontal forcing solidified by favorable
right entrance region upper jet dynamics continues to support an
elongated widespread band of rainfall. Axis of deepest forcing
largely holding position over the m-59/i-69 corridors, but with a
general northward drift as ascent works up the frontal slope
allowing light rainfall to expand into the tri-cities/thumb. This
moisture simply reinforcing an already much colder northeast flow
locked in areawide, north of the surface boundary firmly positioned
across the northern ohio valley. Where rainfall is ongoing, any
meaningful diurnal temperature recovery will remain a struggle, with
readings likely capped in the upper 30s/lower 40s. Points south of
the i-696 corridor will witness some semblence of a modest recovery,
as precipitation chances drop off considerably with southward extent
thanks to increasing stability as upper riding noses northward behind
a slowly exiting upper jet. This process will work to diminish the
existing fgen as the boundary continues to drift north through the
afternoon, but not progressively enough to suggest points along/north
of the i-69 corridor won't continue to see periodic bouts of
rainfall throughout the latter half of the day. With that, will nudge
pops upward for these locations, while trending expected highs
downward a shade. Forecast remains in good shape elsewhere heading
into the afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 608 am edt Sat mar 25 2017
aviation...

a stalled surface front lingering just south of the michigan border
will bring a lengthy period of ifr (possibly lifr) conditions across
the region today and tonight. Increasing moisture field over a
cooling surface layer will result in low stratus and/or fog concerns
through most of the TAF forecast. In addition there will likely be
several waves of rainfall that sweep across the area that will need
timing refinement as the individual waves become more evident.

Models continue to advertise an afternoon lull in precipitation but
overall, low stratus and fog should prevail through the day.

For dtw... The terminal remains just south of the main band of
rainfall and ifr stratus this morning but models show rain filling
in early this morning. An afternoon lull looks to develop but ample
moisture should keep a fog and/or drizzle presence. Expect MVFR or
lower conditions through the period as the front responsible moves
very little through the forecast.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for cigs AOB 5000 ft through the forecast.

* low for cigs/vsby AOB 200 ft or 1/4sm today or tonight.

Prev discussion...

issued at 306 am edt Sat mar 25 2017
discussion...

there is a tight low to mid level baroclinic zone draped across the
great lakes early this morning. Meanwhile, the circulation
associated with the upper low now churning over oklahoma is feeding
a plume of deep layer moisture into illinois. During the night, the
frontal boundary across lower michigan has remained active in two
locations; across northern lower mi within the 700-600mb layer and
across the central portions of the forecast area (m59 to i-69
corridors) closer to the 925mb portion of the frontal zone.

The hi res model suite all suggest the 925-850mb layer will become
more active during the early morning, aided by the ongoing deep
layer moisture feed across illinois. This will support increasing
coverage of showers across the forecast area (aside from perhaps
locals south of the i-94 corridor). Weak elevated instability
along/south of the i-96 corridor has supported some thunderstorms
overnight. The overall persistence of this weak instability will
continue to support some additional thunderstorms. Enhancing the
forcing along the front is the ageostrophic response within a 140+
knot upper jet streak centered over SRN quebec. This forcing will
persist through the first half of the day today. The upper jet
streak will then become focused much farther east this afternoon. In
fact, some mid level ridging will develop across the ERN great lakes
today as the upper low rotates into missouri. These factors will
fracture/weaken the frontal forcing, leading to a diminishing trend
to the coverage of showers during the course of the afternoon and
evening.

Despite the approach of the associated sfc low pressure into
missouri today, strengthening sfc high pressure across northern
ontario drove the sfc cold front across the forecast area last
night. Marine modification under the post frontal northeast winds
have resulted in a rather shallow but cold near sfc layer across se
mi. Temps actually dropped a good 20 to 30 degrees following fropa
last night. The easterly component of the sfc winds will persist
through the day, while post frontal stratus continues to expand
across SE mi. This will keep the front south of the area today and
will only support temps in the 30s and 40s, with the coolest
readings downwind of saginaw bay and lake huron with the NE winds.

The upper low will lift into the NRN ohio valley and SRN great lakes
on Sunday but will dampen considerably as it does so. There are
differences among the 00z model suite with respect to timing and
location of this system as it approaches the region. Some upper
level diffluence and mid level deformation forcing will support some
regions of more persistent rainfall, the locations of which carries
a high degree of uncertainty at this time. Indications among the 00z
model suite are that the better rain chance overnight into sun
morning will be to the west of north of SE mi, with rainfall
probabilities over the forecast area increasing Sun afternoon. The
low level wind fields will turn more southern Sunday as the
associated sfc low lifts across lower mi. This will allow temps to
make a run into the 50s.

Mid level subsidence will overspread the region by Monday as the
remnant upper wave lifts off the northeast. There will not be any
cold air intrusions in the wake of this system, so Monday highs will
possibly rise into the 60s, dependent upon the degree of lingering
low clouds. There has been a noted trend toward a weaker and farther
south mid level short wave feature Mon night into Tuesday. Precip
chances have therefore been lower accordingly. Mid level ridging and
sfc high pressure will dominate during the mid week period. Easterly
sfc flow will however keep temps somewhat on the cool side. The
approach of yet another upper low by the medium range suite will
warrant the next chance of rain the end of the work week.

Marine...

the slow moving frontal boundary has dropped south of lake erie
overnight bringing a wind shift to the northeast across all of the
eastern lakes. Winds will increase this morning reach 25 to 30 knots
across central lake huron which will lead to waves in excess of 4
feet impacting the nearshore waters over the northern thumb region
during the day. Small craft advisories are in effect for saginaw bay
and a portion of the nearshore waters through most of the tonight
period. High pressure building across ontario and quebec with a low
tracking into the western ohio valley will then cause the winds to
veer more easterly which will take the higher winds into northern
lake huron for the rest of tonight and Sunday. The weak low then
looks to slowly pass through lake huron on Monday, with generally
light winds right into Tuesday, but from the north behind the low.

Hydrology...

periodic showers will affect the region through the weekend as a
frontal boundary stalls just south of the state line. Though a
lengthy period with on and off showers, rainfall totals are only
expected reach 0.5 to 0.75 inches through the duration of the event.

The resultant runoff will likely increase flow rates and water
levels in local streams and rivers but flooding risks are mitigated
by the long duration of this rainfall.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Sunday for lhz421-422-441.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz442.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Update... ... .Mr
aviation... ..Drk
discussion... Sc
marine... ... .Drk
hydrology... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 14 mi45 min NNE 11 G 12 39°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 28 mi45 min ENE 9.9 G 13 1021.6 hPa (+1.9)
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 32 mi45 min ENE 9.9 G 15 40°F 1022.5 hPa (+2.1)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 35 mi25 min N 13 G 14 1024.4 hPa
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 40 mi45 min NE 7 G 8 37°F 37°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI6 mi53 minENE 95.00 miFog/Mist43°F39°F89%1022.3 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI15 mi73 minNE 55.00 miFog/Mist45°F41°F88%1021.7 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI17 mi52 minNNE 104.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist44°F41°F89%1023.1 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI24 mi52 minNE 106.00 miFog/Mist44°F42°F93%1022.4 hPa

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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NE8NE8NE8NE7NE5E4NE8NE6NE5NE7NE8NE6NE10
1 day agoSE7S7SE7SE7SE8SE6SE7E8E5E6E6E5SE4SE9
G14
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2 days agoNE4
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NE9E6E9NE8S10S9S6S4S3E3E5E4E4E3E3CalmE3E4CalmCalmSE4S9SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.