Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Estral Beach, MI

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:35PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 12:24 PM EDT (16:24 UTC) Moonrise 3:57PMMoonset 12:51AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 427 Pm Edt Tue Sep 18 2018
.a strong Thunderstorm approaching the waters... The areas affected include... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 427 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a strong Thunderstorm, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. This Thunderstorm was located over elizabeth park marina, moving southeast at 15 knots. The strong Thunderstorm will be near, elizabeth park marina and gibraltar around 435 pm edt. Detroit river light around 455 pm edt. Other locations impacted by the strong Thunderstorm include gibraltar. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until this storm passes. && lat...lon 4176 8348 4180 8341 4182 8343 4189 8337 4189 8334 4194 8331 4192 8327 4202 8318 4208 8320 4219 8315 4218 8315 4208 8316 4209 8315 4225 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4172 8341 4172 8347
LCZ423 Expires:201809182130;;847602 FZUS73 KDTX 182027 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 427 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2018 LCZ423-LEZ444-182130-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estral Beach, MI
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location: 42.02, -83.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 191059
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
659 am edt Wed sep 19 2018

Aviation
MVFR stratus with patches of MVFR ifr fog will slowly erode this
morning, leading to partly mostly cloudy mid upper level clouds by
this afternoon. Some thickening of clouds possible tonight, after
06z generally as convection gradually spreads toward the area along
warm front lifting back north into area. Will forgo mention of shras
of tsras for this forecast, but not out of the question very late in
the forecast kfnt kmbs and perhaps kptk. Light northeast flow will
persist and veer to east southeast late as warm front lifts into the
area.

For dtw... MVFR CIGS will erode by 16z-18z with patchy fog
dissipating early than that.VFR thereafter, aside from perhaps
patchy 5-6sm br again late tonight. Light northeast flow 5-6kts
today with a trend to east-southeast this evening tonight.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less into early this afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 354 am edt Wed sep 19 2018
discussion...

high based showers resulting from a subtle shortwave and upper jet
support that moved through overnight have moved east of the area.

Surface analysis shows the weak cold front that moved through
yesterday has stalled out south of state. This has allowed slightly
cooler air to move over michigan under northerly flow. Mid level
height rises will creep northward over michigan pushing the upper jet
to the north this afternoon as the large area of high pressure moves
across the lower mississippi valley. This will help keep conditions
mostly dry across much of the area during the afternoon. The one
exception will be across northern portions of the CWA where an
elevated front may kick up some activity with help from moisture off
the lake, though the limiting factor will be the presence of a cap
through much of the day. Increased cloud cover with the cooler
airmass will keep high temperatures today mostly in the 70s with
locations across the northern thumb in the mid to upper 60s.

Pacific wave entering the intermountain west today will help
strengthen a developing low pressure system across the central
plains. This will draw the stalled front northward into lower middle
michigan. Flow aloft will also begin turning southwesterly with a
strengthening low level jet, which will set up a transport of higher
moisture into michigan over this front. As shortwave energy moves
through the flow and fgen begins increasing, precipitation will
begin increasing later tonight into tomorrow morning moving from west
to east along the front. Front placement looks to be across mid
michigan which will lead to likely pops across the northern portions
of the CWA and decreasing to chances across the south. There will be
thunderstorms with some severe potential during the overnight period
into tomorrow morning with enough bulk shear, increased mid level
lapse rates and stronger low level jet winds.

As the surface low lifts into northern mi tomorrow evening it will
draw the warm front further north placing southeast michigan in the
warm sector. Precipitation chances will decrease slightly as the
warm front moves into northern michigan, but believe there could
still be some scattered thunderstorm activity during the day within
the strong warm air advection. Increased instability and bulk shear
will keep a maintain potential for a severe thunderstorm threat with
any storms that develop. Surge of warm air will also bring high
temperatures tomorrow back into the upper 70s and 80s.

Upper level trough will deepen the surface low as it tracks through
the western great lakes and through northeastern ontario. Gradient
flow will be increasing Thursday night into Friday with this potent
low pressure along with a cold front getting pushed through michigan
Friday. There will be potential for a line of storms to be riding
this front as it drives through michigan and exits by late
afternoon. Main threat with this line will be damaging winds, though
already breezing conditions expected to occur during the day with
winds gusts up to 40 mph possible.

High pressure will be building in behind the front along with much
cooler and drier conditions for the weekend. Dry weather looks to
continue into early next week with weak ridge translating over the
region with an expansive surface high. Below normal temperatures in
mostly in the 60s on Saturday will gradually increase each day into
Monday. Another trough and developing surface low across the plains
is forecast to send a warm front north into michigan late Monday
into Tuesday. This may bring the next shot at precipitation for
michigan, though there is still some uncertainty with how this
system plays out next week.

Marine...

a stalled frontal system over the ohio valley will promote light
easterly flow today into tonight as high pressure to its north
builds eastward across ontario. These favorable conditions will
begin to worsen late tonight into Thursday as the front moves north
and shower and thunderstorm activity increases. An increasing wind
component will also occur as low pressure organizes over the central
plains and strengthens over the northern great lakes. Much warmer
air surging north across lower michigan and lake huron will increase
stability and limit wind gusts to some extent. However, gusts to 30
knots look possible in southwest flow late Thursday into Thursday
night from parts of saginaw bay on it central lake huron.

Once the low crosses the northern great lakes and continues into
ontario early Friday morning, an associated cold front will push
southeast through the central great lakes. The front will bring
veering winds to the northwest with considerably colder air
reversing the thermal profile to an unstable configuration. The
strength of the low could support a wind field capable of gusts to
near gale force over the open waters of lake huron Friday into
Friday night. Will forgo a gale watch at this time and allow for a
more larger suite of hires model runs to hone in on the forecast
strength and position of the low pressure system as it passes north
of lake huron on Friday. Once this system passes, high pressure will
then bring more tranquil conditions during the weekend.

Hydrology...

shower and thunderstorm chances will increase gradually late today
into this evening. However, widespread activity is expected to hold
off until overnight into Thursday morning as a warm front lifts
north into the region in response to developing low pressure to the
west. The warmer and more humid air moving into the area with this
front will supply enough moisture for rainfall totals averaging 0.25
to 0.50 inches from tonight through Thursday morning. Totals at the
higher end of the range are more likely across the tri cities and
northern thumb where localized rainfall around 1 inch will also be
possible. While widely scattered showers or thunderstorms may occur
into Thursday afternoon and evening, the most significant activity
should shift north of the region with the warm front. The potential
for flooding is minimal with this activity, limited to ponding of
water on roads and minor flooding of poor drainage areas.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Aa
marine... ... .Dg
hydrology... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 14 mi35 min NE 9.9 G 11 67°F
45165 23 mi25 min NE 9.7 G 14 68°F 74°F2 ft61°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 28 mi37 min ENE 8 G 13 68°F 1018.4 hPa62°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 32 mi25 min ENE 7 G 13 71°F 1017.9 hPa (+0.4)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 35 mi25 min E 4.1 G 8 66°F 1019.3 hPa (+0.7)
45147 - Lake St Clair 38 mi25 min E 3.9 G 5.8 65°F 71°F1 ft1018.3 hPa (+0.7)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 40 mi43 min NE 11 G 13 69°F 76°F1018.8 hPa62°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 47 mi35 min NE 14 G 16 68°F 2 ft1018.4 hPa62°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI6 mi30 minNE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F61°F74%1018.3 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI15 mi50 minSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F65°F84%1018.3 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI17 mi32 minNE 68.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F59°F66%1018.2 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI24 mi32 minENE 510.00 miFair75°F61°F62%1018 hPa

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Last 24hrS5S7S5S5CalmCalmCalmNE6NE8NE9
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1 day agoS5S5S6S7S7S6S3S3S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS7S5S5S6S5S4SE3E3E4CalmSE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.