Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Estral Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:04PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 10:05 PM EST (03:05 UTC) Moonrise 2:32PMMoonset 3:03AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0040.000000t0000z-181006t2345z/ 710 Pm Edt Sat Oct 6 2018
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4216 8321 4218 8313 4213 8312 4205 8315 4202 8314 4198 8315 4197 8318 4196 8328 time...mot...loc 2308z 250deg 36kt 4214 8305
LCZ423 Expires:201810062320;;348663 FZUS73 KDTX 062310 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 710 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2018 LCZ423-LEZ444-062320-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estral Beach, MI
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location: 42.02, -83.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 182309
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
609 pm est Tue dec 18 2018

Aviation
Very dry low level airmass associated with high pressure centered to
the southeast will maintainVFR conditions with just varying degrees
of cirrus over the next 24-30 hours. Ssw flow will increase to some
extent on Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens between this
high and low pressure passing just north of lake superior. Even so,
wind speeds will generally remain 10 knots or less on average. Some
backing to the S sse will be possible late in the day as the high
pressure shifts east and low level flow comes off of icy waters of
lake erie.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 328 pm est Tue dec 18 2018
discussion...

deep layer subsidence and surface high pressure have aided in
eroding this mornings cloud deck, leading to mostly sunny skies
across michigan as daytime highs hold in the low to mid-30s. High
pressure will continue to push east and will center across the
western atlantic mid-Wednesday morning, where return anticyclonic
flow will aid in ushering warmer air across the region, noted by the
increase in h850 temperatures from -2c up to 4c Tuesday 18z to
Wednesday 12z. This increase in WAA will offset overnight
radiational cooling, holding temperatures in the in the mid to upper-
20s for an overnight low.

A ridge of higher pressure will continue to hold across the great
lakes through the early part of Wednesday and will allow dry weather
to persist for the bulk of the day as temperatures rebound back into
the low to mid-40s for a daytime high. Gradually increasing mid to
high-level clouds tied to the warm front are expected to fill in
from south to north starting by the late morning hours. Latest href
guidance does suggest the possibility of seeing isolated shower
activity tied to a weak shortwave, mainly across midland into bay
county during the afternoon, but given the dry air profile in the
low-levels (dew point depressions ~15c), opted not to included pop
chances in the forecast.

Attention will then turn to Thursday, which will bring the next
likely chance to see precipitation across SE mi. A highly amplified
upper-level trough that reaches across the gulf of mexico and well
into central america will aid in supporting a dynamic low pressure
system. This highly amplified subtropical jet will allow low
pressure to push northeastward across the carolinas and into pa
throughout Thursday and into Friday morning. Subtle isentropic lift
will increase across SE mi Thursday morning into the afternoon and
will lead to the chance for rain showers as continued WAA holds
temperatures in the lower 40s for a daytime high. Increased chances
for precipitation expected late Thursday into early Friday morning
as the nose of the jet streak extends north across lake erie,
providing weak left exit dynamics in addition to a weak shortwave
projected to move north across eastern mi during that timeframe. As
previously mentioned, highs in the lower 40s will help support an
all-rain solution at the onset of any precipitation, with a
transition to a wintry mix north to south overnight as temperatures
drop towards the freezing mark.

The backside of the low will linger over southeast michigan on
Friday. Precipitation will slowly diminish throughout the day as the
low continues to slide off to the east. North northwest flow behind
the system will bring in colder air as highs going into the weekend
stay in the lower 30s. Any lingering precip into Friday evening may
change over to snow for eastern areas of the cwa. The area then
remains dry before a weak wave moves up from the southwest later
Sunday, bringing a chance for some snow showers. High pressure then
builds in to the south, as conditions once again look to remain dry
up through Monday.

Marine...

high pressure over the eastern great lakes will continue to drift
southeastward away from the region. Southwest winds will increase
tonight across lake huron as a low level jet surges north embedded
in the tightening gradient ahead of the next trough approaching from
the west. Warm air advection increasing stability and a stout low
level inversion will limit gust potential to around 25 knots tonight
through Wednesday with off shore flow keeping higher waves away from
the shoreline. A cold front will slowly approach from the west on
Thursday. The pressure gradient will weaken within the trough
allowing winds and waves to relax.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Am sp
marine... ... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 14 mi66 min S 8 G 9.9 34°F
TWCO1 23 mi16 min SSW 6 G 7 33°F 1017.5 hPa28°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 28 mi36 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 31°F 1020.4 hPa25°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 32 mi66 min SSE 7 G 8 32°F 1021.4 hPa (-1.0)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 35 mi66 min S 1 G 6 30°F 1020.7 hPa (-1.0)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 40 mi36 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 30°F 35°F1021.2 hPa26°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI6 mi71 minS 910.00 miFair33°F29°F87%1020.3 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI15 mi71 minS 310.00 miFair28°F27°F96%1020.3 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI17 mi73 minS 59.00 miA Few Clouds28°F23°F81%1021.2 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI24 mi73 minSSW 510.00 miFair29°F24°F82%1021 hPa

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW4NW4N5N4NW3CalmCalmNE3CalmNW3NW3CalmS4S3S6S7S7S5S4S4S8S8S8
1 day agoW3W5W4W5W6W5W5W7NW6NW6NW5NW7NW12N12N10NW7NW6NW10
G14
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2 days agoNE12
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G19
NE10NE8NE4N4N5N6N5N5NE6NE4CalmS3S4S5S5CalmCalmSW3W3W3W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.