Friday, June22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Estral Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 9:14PM Friday June 22, 2018 6:59 AM EDT (10:59 UTC) Moonrise 2:55PMMoonset 1:49AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 1026 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018 a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 1025 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 30 nm west of wyandotte to near lake erie metropark harbor, moving east at 25 knots. Strong Thunderstorms will be near, Monroe harbor around 1030 pm edt. Detroit river light around 1040 pm edt. Elizabeth park marina, grosse ile and gibraltar around 1140 pm edt. Other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include gibraltar. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4189 8338 4188 8334 4194 8331 4192 8327 4197 8325 4202 8318 4208 8320 4219 8315 4218 8315 4213 8317 4208 8316 4224 8314 4230 8309 4236 8297 4234 8295 4229 8309 4217 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4182 8330 LCZ423 Expires:201806190400;;756612 FZUS73 KDTX 190226 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1026 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018 LCZ423-LEZ444-190400-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estral Beach, MI
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location: 42.02, -83.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 221051
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
651 am edt Fri jun 22 2018

Aviation
Moisture will continue to increase with northward extent ahead of a
slow-moving low pressure system over the northern ohio river valley.

Despite fairly widespread coverage in radar returns, dry
low midlevels will preclude most, if any of the activity reaching
the ground early this morning as the column saturates. Clouds
gradually lower with time with vcsh possible late morning as forcing
increases ahead of an occluded front slowly drifting northward with
time. Latest thinking is for more steady rain onset in the 18z-20z
timeframe from south to north. InitiallyVFR conditions will
prevail, but continued column moistening wet bulbing will result in
MVFR ceilings developing by the evening hours. Depending on any
heavier rain segments and possible thunderstorms, brief ifr
conditions will be possible. Showers and MVFR conditions continue
overnight through the remainder of the TAF period, although coverage
will likely be periodic in nature. East northeast winds will prevail
through much of the period at 10-15 knots with occasional gusts
around 20 knots. Winds will decrease and shift more east southeast
with the approach of the low pressure center towards 12z Saturday.

For dtw...VFR conditions initially prevail into the early afternoon
hours as column saturates. Showers and possible thunderstorms occur
after 16z as ceilings continue to lower to MVFR. Brief periods of
ifr will be possible this evening as heavier rain segments embedded
thunder rotate through aided in part by occluded frontogenetical
forcing. Northeast runway operations will continue to be favored for
most of the TAF period with speeds 10-15 knots, gusts to 20 knots.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate for ceiling below 5000 ft during the morning. High
beginning afternoon and through remainder of period.

* low for thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.

Prev discussion
Issued at 317 am edt Fri jun 22 2018
discussion...

sfc low pressure will drift across SRN illinois today, then into nrn
indiana NW ohio tonight. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure will remain
anchored across the NRN great lakes. The result will be a
persistence of easterly winds across lake erie today. Thus far
overnight winds have had a slightly more NE component on the lake
but gusts have been around 30 knots. During the course of the day,
winds are forecast to turn a little more easterly. With water temps
in the upper 60s, mixing depths should remain supportive of frequent
gusts in the 25-30 knot range. This will keep water piled up along
the shoreline. For the time being, forecast lake levels up to 72
inches seem likely along the shoreline in monroe county, supporting
the current advisory. Given that wind speeds have overachieved some
overnight, there is a concern that lake levels may push up toward 75
inches, which would require a lakeshore flood warning, something
that will be monitored throughout the day. With the expectation for
winds to turn a little more easterly today, the advisory will be
extended into wayne county, where lake levels may be able to reach
68 inches in gibraltar. As for saginaw bay, funneling into the bay
will support some gusty winds on inner bay in particular. The
limited fetch of the stronger winds may be able to hold lake levels
along bay county below 48 inches.

The sfc low is associated with an upper low now located near st
louis, mo. This upper low will lift toward toledo by Saturday
morning. Mid level moisture has already been on the increase across
southern mi in advance of this low. Despite decent mid level
deformation ongoing across SE mi, the low level easterly flow has
been sustaining very dry air in the low levels, thus inhibiting
precip. As the upper low drifts to the east today, mid level flow
will turn more southerly across NRN indiana ohio. This will result
in a push of deeper moisture into SE mi within increasing isentropic
ascent. Showers will then develop (along south of the i-94 corridor
this morning) and expand northward toward the i-69 corridor by late
afternoon. Tonight, the better mid level moisture and deformation
will push into the saginaw valley thumb region. Hi res solutions do
suggest that showers (possibly thunder) will develop closer to the
center of the mid level circulation, affecting detroit and points
south late tonight early Sat morning.

Surface based instability will remain south of the mi border with
this system (rain cooled boundary layer air will hold a formidable
stable layer over much of SE mi). Weak mid level instability is
still forecast across the southern half of the area, warranting a
chance for some elevated thunder today tonight. While total qpf
should remain under a half inch over much of the area, the slow
system movement forcing with precip water rising to just over 1.7
inches suggests localized regions of more persistent rainfall and
higher QPF are likely. This will be more problematic if by chance
the elevated instability is a little higher than expected.

The upper low is forecast to depart to the east and weaken on
Saturday. Remnant deep layer moisture over SE mi and weak diurnal
destabilization with daytime highs into the 70s will support a
chance of showers through the day. The coverage chances are likely
to be limited by rising mid level heights as short wave mid level
ridging builds in the wake of the departing upper low. A mid level
through axis and sfc front is then forecast to rotate across SE mi
on Sunday, providing another chance for showers. Again, instability
looks to be fairly limited.

This trough will be followed by long wave trough amplification
across eastern canada new england on Monday, driving strong sfc
high pressure into the great lakes. The result will be relatively
cool and dry conditions to start the work week. The medium range
model solutions indicate the flow will become more progressive
during the week. The next chance for showers thunderstorms will
arrive mid week (tues night wed) as an upper wave is forecast to
traverse the region. A building of the subtropical ridge across the
midwest late in the week suggest a warming trend toward the end of
the forecast period.

Marine...

moderate east to northeast flow will continue today as the region
remains in between departing high pressure over eastern ontario and
an approaching region of broad low pressure over the northern ohio
river valley. Closer to the low pressure center, winds will be more
easterly across southern lake huron, lake st. Clair, and western
lake erie. Further north across northern central lake huron and
saginaw bay, winds will be more northeasterly in direction. A tight
pressure gradient and local funneling effects between the two
systems will lead to hazardous conditions for small craft across
saginaw bay, lake st. Clair, and western lake erie. Wind gusts in
these areas will approach 25 knots at times today, with the
exception being across western lake erie where gusts approaching
gale force will be possible due to a long fetch down the lake axis.

As the area of low pressure moves overhead Saturday, winds will
weaken and generally be northeasterly across lake huron, and
southerly for lake st. Clair and western lake erie. Moderate
northerly wind will develop on Sunday as the area of low pressure
departs east and high pressure from the northern great lakes builds
into the region in its wake. Periods of showers with a few
thunderstorms will be possible as the low pressure system moves
across the region.

Hydrology...

a broad area of low pressure will slowly move northeast towards the
region today from the northern ohio river valley. This system will
continue to track northeast across the region Saturday before
departing Sunday. Periods of showers with embedded heavier rain
segments and thunderstorms will be possible today and continuing
through Saturday, with the highest concentration of activity being
primarily focused south of the i-69 corridor. Total rainfall amounts
will range from around a quarter of an inch north of the i-69
corridor, to a half of an inch to 1 inch further south. Locally
higher amounts will be possible within any thunderstorm activity.

Some minor poor drainage flooding of low lying and urban areas will
be possible, especially around the detroit metro south to the ohio
border. Showers may linger into Sunday as well with additional light
rainfall amounts possible.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement through this evening for miz048-083.

Lakeshore flood advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for miz076.

Lakeshore flood warning until 10 pm edt this evening for miz083.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

Aviation... ..Irl
discussion... Sc
marine... ... .Irl
hydrology... .Irl
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 14 mi40 min ENE 25 G 29 68°F
45165 23 mi20 min ENE 18 G 25 69°F 73°F4 ft64°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 28 mi42 min E 19 G 25 69°F 1008.6 hPa62°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 32 mi60 min ENE 9.9 G 15 68°F 1008.2 hPa (-0.5)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 35 mi60 min ENE 14 G 18 65°F 1010.8 hPa (-0.4)
45147 - Lake St Clair 38 mi60 min E 16 G 19 64°F 62°F1009.1 hPa (-1.1)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 40 mi42 min ENE 15 G 19 69°F 1008.9 hPa65°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 47 mi40 min E 18 G 23 68°F 68°F1008.8 hPa64°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI6 mi65 minENE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F50°F61%1009.5 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI15 mi65 minNE 510.00 miOvercast64°F54°F73%1009.1 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI17 mi67 minNE 810.00 miOvercast67°F46°F49%1009.5 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI24 mi67 minENE 810.00 miOvercast65°F48°F56%1009.2 hPa

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE8NE9NE8NE6NE8E8E7E6E6E6E6E6E4E7NE6NE8NE7NE7NE10NE9NE9NE9NE7
1 day agoNE8NE6NE6NE4E7SE4E4NE5NE6CalmNE3E5NE4E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN7NE5NE9E7E5E7SE4E4NE7E5SE6S6S3SE3CalmCalmNE6NE7NE6NE4NE4NE6NE6NE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.