Tuesday, March26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Estral Beach, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 7:52PM Tuesday March 26, 2019 5:58 AM EDT (09:58 UTC) Moonrise 12:19AMMoonset 10:09AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 Expires:201903150145;;811647 Fzus73 Kdtx 150100 Mwsdtx Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 900 Pm Edt Thu Mar 14 2019 Lcz422-423-460-lhz442-443-463-464-150145- /o.con.kdtx.ma.w.0001.000000t0000z-190315t0145z/ 900 Pm Edt Thu Mar 14 2019
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 945 pm edt... For the following areas... Detroit river... Harbor beach to port sanilac mi... Lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Lake huron from port sanilac to port huron 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion)... Port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... At 900 pm edt, strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 15 nm east of harbor beach to near lexington to 18 nm northwest of wyandotte, moving northeast at 40 knots. Hazard...wind gusts 34 knots or greater and small hail. Source...radar indicated. Impact...small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. Strong Thunderstorms will be near... Lexington and lakeport around 905 pm edt. St. Clair shores around 945 pm edt. Other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include richmondville. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes. && lat...lon 4292 8246 4262 8252 4254 8266 4237 8283 4232 8306 4215 8313 4214 8322 4233 8312 4239 8295 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4264 8256 4265 8255 4301 8247 4322 8256 4365 8263 4384 8228 4385 8218 4359 8212 time...mot...loc 0100z 234deg 38kt 4375 8231 4323 8251 4239 8350 hail...<.75in wind...>34kts
LCZ423


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Estral Beach, MI
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location: 42.02, -83.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 260734
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
334 am edt Tue mar 26 2019

Discussion
Very dry airmass in place over southeast michigan as the 00z dtx
raob came in with a pw value of 0.11 inches 31 percent of normal.

Crystal clear skies yesterday allowed high temperatures to reach
into the low to mid 40s across most locations. Even with the cold
start today, the late march Sun should allow temps to rebound into
the mid 40s per inherited forecast, in line with latest mav met
guidance.

Sprawling high pressure (1033 mb) over the central great
lakes today will slide east, reaching the new england coastline on
Wednesday. Increasing warm advection pattern for Wednesday ahead of
a cold front, with 850 mb temps climbing above zero by day's end,
and highs should have no problem reaching into the lower 50s with
the increasing southwest flow. Not much of a drop in temps Wednesday
night with continued warm advection and increase in cloud cover, and
decent chance low temps remain AOA 40 degrees across most areas.

Amount of shower activity with the cold frontal passage on Thursday
still a bit in question, as 850 mb theta-e ridge folds over and
sinks south of the border late in the day. Still looking at just a
marginally unstable airmass with showalter index nearing zero, with
the low level jet quickly weakening. Even so, should be enough low
level convergence moisture in the low levels to support at least
high scattered coverage of light shower activity. Still no thunder
mention however, in agreement with SPC day 3 outlook.

Tight baroclinic zone setting up by Thursday evening and low level 925
mb front still may be around the i-94 corridor to support additional
showers. Front will be returning north on Friday as a warm front as
upper level wave energy comes out of the four corners region. Models
(gfs canadian icon european) converging on solution for the first
half of the weekend with the track of the low. It appears the track
will be just south of chicago Friday evening, and then off to the
northeast through or just south of saginaw bay on Saturday. This
places southeast michigan generally on the mild rainy side of the low
with perhaps a little bit of snow on the tail end across tri-cities
region. It looks like the northern stream wave trough is too
positively tilted to allow for deepening of the low, and thus even
the wind pop behind the low will be muted (gusts around 30 mph)
despite the aggressive shot of cold advection, as 850 mb temps
plummet to -10 c or slightly colder by Sunday morning. Thus, high
temperatures potentially coming up short of 40 degrees on Sunday, or
over 10 degrees below normal.

Marine
Canadian high pressure will build aggressively into the region
through Wednesday. This will bring favorable marine conditions in
terms of winds and wave. Southwest flow is then expected to increase
significantly Wednesday night and Thursday as the center of high
pressure drifts to the atlantic seaboard.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1152 pm edt Mon mar 25 2019
aviation...

north-northeast wind speeds will decrease a bit (below 6kts)
around shortly after 00z with the loss in diurnal heating. Strong
high pressure will expand across the state on Tuesday, supporting
light north-northeast winds through the day. Very dry air will keep
skies clear through the TAF period.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Cb
aviation... ..Sc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 14 mi58 min N 7 G 8 31°F
TWCO1 23 mi28 min NNE 7 G 11 33°F 1024.8 hPa23°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 28 mi40 min 28°F 1027.8 hPa16°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 32 mi58 min NNE 5.1 G 7 30°F 1028.3 hPa (+1.1)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 35 mi58 min NW 4.1 G 7 27°F 1028.1 hPa (+0.7)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 40 mi40 min 39°F1027.9 hPa

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI6 mi63 minNNW 510.00 miFair25°F15°F67%1027.4 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI15 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair24°F20°F85%1027.8 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI17 mi65 minNNW 510.00 miFair26°F12°F57%1028.6 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI24 mi65 minNNW 710.00 miFair26°F12°F57%1028.4 hPa

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10
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NE9NE7NE9NE6NE6NE5N4N4NW3N4
1 day agoCalmS4CalmW3CalmS3CalmS8S5W6W7W5W4W3S7CalmCalmNE14NE15
G19
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G17
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G18
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N8
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2 days agoNW6NW4NW6NW8NW7NW6W4SE5S4W5W7W6S8S9S7S6S6S4SW3SW3SW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.