Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Evanston, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:15PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 2:17 AM CDT (07:17 UTC) Moonrise 7:49AMMoonset 9:16PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 916 Pm Cdt Tue Mar 28 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cdt Wednesday...
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 am cdt Wednesday...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming east. Areas of dense fog. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 kt. Areas of dense fog in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
Wednesday night..East winds to 30 kt. Rain likely. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft building to 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft after midnight.
Thursday..East winds to 30 kt. Rain. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 11 ft.
LMZ741 Expires:201703290915;;239123 FZUS53 KLOT 290216 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 916 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN WAVES ARE PROVIDED AS A RANGE OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES, ALONG WITH THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 10 PERCENT OF THE WAVES WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENCOUNTERED. LMZ740>742-290915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Evanston, IL
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location: 42.03, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 290521
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago/romeoville, il
1221 am cdt Wed mar 29 2017

Short term
157 pm cdt
through Wednesday...

main concern for the short term forecast period will be timing of
pcpn spreading from west to east across the region tomorrow.

Conditions will remain quiet through the remainder of the
afternoon and overnight as a ridge of high pressure builds
across the upper mississippi valley to the upper great lakes,
while low pressure begins to develop over the south high plains.

Prevailing enely-nly will keep wind flow off of lake michigan,
with lakefront locations remaining cooler than inland locations.

Highs today should range from around 40 f near the lake to around
50 f well inland. The only concern of note through the night will
be the amount of cloud cover across the region. Latest satellite
imagery shows some drier air moving swd through SRN wi as the
ridge builds ewd, far il could see at least some partial clearing
overnight, which, in turn, would allow for temps to drop off a
little faster than the remainder of the area. Lows tonight should
range from the middle 30s along the wi border to the upper 30s to
low 40s south of i-80. Any partial clearing of cloud cover should
be short lived as low pressure developing over the south high
plains deepens and tracks to the northeast as the parent upper low
lifts into the central plains through the day tomorrow. While sfc
flow should trend to more sely, mid level toughing should help
begin to draw some gulf moisture northward. Weak short wave energy
lifting out ahead of the upper trough will help to initial some
pcpn across the area, with pcpn chances generally spreading from
west to east through the day, possibly beginning over the rfd area
by early afternoon and spreading to the chicago area by late
afternoon or early evening. While the upper low begins to lift out
of the desert southwest tomorrow, upper ridging will build over
the upper midwest, allowing for temperatures a few degrees higher
Tuesday than were seen on Monday. While lakefront locations will
still remain relatively cool, with highs in the lower 40s, inland
locations should see highs in the lower to middle 50s.

Long term
221 pm cdt
Wednesday night through Tuesday...

the upper level split flow pattern will continue this forecast
period with series of upper level systems progressing west to east
across the conus. Hence main forecast concerns will be rain with
scattered thunder Wednesday night through Thursday night with the
next approaching upper low... Followed by rain chances returning
with the next upper low Monday-Tuesday.

Upper level low currently near the 4 corners area will work slowly
east into the southern plans Wednesday. Both rising heights aloft
ahead of the low combined with relatively dry anticyclonic boundary
layer flow around slowly departing hudson bay surface high may
help to slow increase of precip coverage/intensity into northern
il initially. Weak upper shortwave riding a top the shortwave
riding combined with modest isentropic ascent may help squeeze out
sprinkles/patchy light rain as early as afternoon over the
rfd/i-39 corridor and toward the evening rush across the chicago
metro.

Better rain to get going overnight Wednesday into Thursday as the
column saturates and given broader ascent ahead of the northward
moving warm front. 12z gfs/nam QPF amounts trending upward from
previous runs with 48 hr rains of 1.0 to 1.25 inches wed-fri
seeming reasonable now. While mid level lapse rates remain more
impressive to our south, can't rule out some rumbles of thunder,
particularly southern sections of the forecast area late Wed night
and Thursday... And the entire area by Thursday afternoon/evening
as lapse rates steepen slightly as the surface low reaches to
just south of kankakee by Thursday evening per gfs/canadian gem
solutions.

Given such synoptic set up by Thursday afternoon/evening also would
expect fairly tight nne gradient across northern il and hence a
brisk nne flow with gusts 25-30 mph... Perhaps as high 35 mph at
the lakefront.

Low slides slowly off to the east Friday. Weak surface ridging
allows for residual low level moisture to persist much of the day
Friday however before rising heights aloft and associated
subsidence helps scour out low level moisture Friday night into
Saturday. Weekend shaping up generally dry with next chance of
rain arriving later Monday as next in the series of upper troughs
tracks well south across the southern plains but then lifts
northeast across the ohio valley into Tuesday.

Ed f

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

another challenging forecast on tap with several concerns
throughout the period. First and most pressing is the developing
low stratus and fog moving in off of lake michigan. Areas
immediately adjacent to lake michigan have fallen to less than a
quarter mile in dense fog. While the fog has been lifting as it
moves inland, there have been rapid falls over the past hour in
ceilings and more recently visibility. Dense fog of 1/4sm or less
is a distinct possibility but right now there is higher confidence
in 1/2sm to 1sm visibility. Expect low conditions to persist
overnight with improvement expected mid to late Wednesday morning,
around 15z or so. Winds will become gusty out of the ene tomorrow
afternoon.

Meanwhile, low pressure is progged to lift across the southern and
central plains through the period. Several models have become much
faster bringing precip to the terminals, however forecast
soundings indicate very dry air in place through most of the day
tomorrow. With that in mind, leaning towards slower arrival of
precip to the terminals, around or after midnight local time late
Wednesday. Weak instability is now progged to lift north into the
chicagoland area, so cannot completely rule out an isolated
thunderstorm or two around the terminals.

Bmd

Marine
256 pm cdt
a north-south oriented ridge of high pressure across the western
great lakes will slowly move off to the east tonight and
Wednesday. This will allow for low pressure over the southern
plains to lift northeast into the mid mississippi valley
Wednesday night into Thursday. This low will then slowly move
northeast across the eastern great lakes Friday while a ridge of
high pressure builds back into the lake michigan basin Saturday...

moving over the lake Saturday night into Sunday.

Strongest winds of the period will be felt late Wednesday night
through Friday (northeast winds to 30 kts) as the low passes to
the south of lake michigan.

Ed f

Lot watches/warnings/advisories
Il... Dense fog advisory... Ilz006-ilz014 until 9 am Wednesday.

In... Dense fog advisory... Inz001-inz002 until 9 am Wednesday.

Lm... Dense fog advisory... Il nearshore waters until 9 am Wednesday.

Small craft advisory... Il nearshore waters until 3 am Wednesday.

Dense fog advisory... Lmz743-lmz744-lmz745-lmz777-lmz779 until 9
am Wednesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 4 mi138 min N 14 34°F
OKSI2 9 mi138 min NNE 6 35°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 10 mi28 min N 7 G 8 34°F 34°F
CNII2 13 mi18 min NNE 8 G 8.9 34°F
JAKI2 18 mi138 min NNE 8.9 35°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 22 mi48 min NNE 7 G 8.9 34°F 1023.2 hPa34°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 24 mi38 min NNW 4.1 G 8 33°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi78 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 33°F 1023.7 hPa (-0.3)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 39 mi38 min ENE 9.9 G 14 35°F 1024 hPa
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 46 mi28 min NE 8 G 8.9 35°F 35°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL12 mi26 minENE 40.75 miFog/Mist34°F34°F100%1024.4 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL12 mi27 minNE 61.00 miFog/Mist36°F35°F97%1023.7 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL17 mi25 minNNE 71.25 miFog/Mist37°F36°F96%1024.2 hPa

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NE8N9NE6NE7N11
G16
NE11N9N10N10NE10NE9NE10NE11NE9NE7NE6NE4NE6NE6NE8NE9N4NE4
1 day agoNW3NW3N4W4NW3N5NE3CalmE4E5E4E4E5NE5NE6NE7NE6NE7NE4NE6N6N5N6N3
2 days agoNE4E4NE3NE4E3CalmCalmSE5S4S5S4SW5SW7SW9SW9SW6SW5SW7SW7SW5W6W6SW7W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.