Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Evanston, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:51PM Friday January 19, 2018 5:19 PM CST (23:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:45AMMoonset 8:28PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 259 Pm Cst Fri Jan 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 kt. Patchy fog after midnight. Intermittent rain and drizzle after midnight. Waves nearly calm.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Areas of fog. Intermittent rain or drizzle. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ741 Expires:201801200415;;694914 FZUS53 KLOT 192059 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 259 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-200415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Evanston, IL
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location: 42.03, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 192153
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
353 pm cst Fri jan 19 2018

Short term
129 pm cst
through Saturday...

southwest winds are occasionally gusty this afternoon as a deepening
low pressure system passes through southern ontario. Sunshine and
warmer temperatures continue to eat away at the snowpack with
little snow left across southwestern portions of livingston and
lasalle counties. Deeper snowpack across northwest indiana is
holding temperatures down a bit more in these areas.

The low will strengthen further this evening while it will move
into quebec. Expect winds to remain gusty and even increase this
evening area wide. Gusts to 35 mph are not out of the question.

Otherwise, expect continued higher clouds and generally mild
temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Concern will shift to the arrival of an area of stratus currently
across the ARKLATEX region. Initial trajectories and forecast low
level steering flow initially keeps the stratus south of i-80
through at least a portion of the morning. We do expect an
increase in coverage by noon, and then overspreading most of the
area by tomorrow evening. In spite of the clouds, temperatures
will rebound close to today's readings in the upper 30s to low
40s. Forecast soundings suggest fog drizzle will hold off until
the evening as well.

Kmd

Long term
352 pm cst
Saturday night through Friday...

main concern for the long term forecast period will be temperature
trends through the period and rainfall amounts and associated
impacts, for Sunday night through Monday.

Latest guidance continues to trend to a rapid warm-up and increase
in deep layer moisture in advance of a system lifting out of the
south high plains. The models have been trending a little slower
and farther south with the track of the system, which would put the
axis of heaviest rainfall over NRN il nwrn in. In advance of the
low, while high pressure remains parked over the sern conus,
persistent warm, moist advection will bring increasing pcpn chances.

However, initially, the saturated moist layer will be below 10kft
with an elevated dry layer in more swly flow aloft vs. More sly flow
at the sfc. This type of moisture profile would be more conducive
to drizzle and fog, rather than rain. Temperature trends for
Saturday night may also presents some challenges as temperatures
should still drop to below 32 f, especially for the nwrn portions of
the cwa. So, there may be a chance for some light ice accumulation
or a glazing of elevated surfaces as air temps drop below freezing
for a few hours Sunday morning. The higher daytime temperatures may
help to keep the ground and road surfaces above freezing for the
short period then air temperatures are below freezing, but a period
of freezing drizzle with a light ice glazing cannot be ruled out.

Have toned back the pcpn type mention to drizzle rather than rain as
the saturated layer should be relatively shallow through much of
the day, with the deep layer moisture not moving into the area until
later Sunday night. Through the evening, pwats will climb above
0.75 inches, indicative of the increasing deep layer moisture. By
Monday morning, pwats in excess of 1 inches will overspread the
region in the deep layer warm moist advection ahead of the
associated approaching cold front. Through the weekend, MAX temps
will gradually increase into low to middle 40s for Sunday and upper
40s to lower 50s on Monday. There is a chance for some thunder
along the cold front as it moves across the region, but the window
of opportunity for thunder should be relatively narrow and tied
closely to the timing of the frontal passage, so confidence is too
low at this time to include in the forecast. However, this is a
possibility that will need to be considered. Temperatures should
rapidly drop off following the fropa, trending back to near normal
for Tuesday morning until late in the week. The longer range
guidance is suggesting the potential for another warming trend with
chances of rain for next weekend.

Hydrology
352 pm cst
the increase in temperatures along with moderate rainfall will
bring an increasing chance for break-up ice jam flooding. Latest
qpf amounts for the period from 00z Monday through 00z Tuesday
suggest a corridor of 0.75 to 0.85 areal average QPF over nwrn
indiana through central illinois, including the kankakee, iroquois
and fox river basins, with 0.6 to 0.75 inches over the remainder
of the cwa. Also, snow water liquid equivalent amounts of 1 2 inch
are trapped in the snow pack as of Friday afternoon. With frozen
ground, this snow melt will translate to runoff into the rivers.

With moderate rainfall then expected, all of this should translate
to runoff as well. So, the runoff will translate to increasing
streamflow and hydraulic pressure from under the ice surface,
while the warming will contribute to ice melt from the top. This
combination will be conducive to ice breakup, with ice jams
occurring at bends in area rivers and at choke-points and
obstructions to free water flow such as bridges.

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

concerns:
- gusty southwest winds lingering and possibly increasing this
evening
- possible llws this evening
- stratus arrival times and ceilings on Saturday
southwest winds are occasionally gusty this afternoon, but expect
sustained speeds and gusts to increase by at least a few knots as
a weather system passes through southern ontario. While
confidence in that increase is high and that the peak should last
through the evening, confidence is somewhat low on just how high
surface gusts will be. There is a chance of gusts occasionally
reaching 30-33 kt between 22z-04z. If this is not the case, then
there will likely be a short period of llws centered around the
01z- 04z window. Either way, it will be quite windy out of the
southwest late this afternoon evening in the lowest 2k feet.

Concern will shift to the arrival of an area of stratus currently
across the ARKLATEX region. Initial trajectories and forecast low
level steering flow initially keeps the stratus southeast of the
terminals through mid morning, but then expect an increase in
coverage by noon, and then overspreading most of the area by
tomorrow evening. Confidence on specific arrival time is only
medium. CIGS should start MVFR though initially, with again only
medium confidence that ifr will hold off until the evening.

Kmd

Marine
352 pm cst
an active pattern will continue over the lake into next week.

A quick-moving, but fairly strong clipper-type system moving
across the upper great lakes has brought a tightening pressure
gradient to the upper great lakes, resulting in an increase winds
to require a small craft advisory winds over the illinois and
indiana nearshore waters and a gale warning for the open waters.

Winds should diminish through the evening and overnight.

A strong plains low will develop Sunday afternoon and move
northeast, lifting a warm front over the lake on Monday.

Increasing temperatures and dew points over the cooler waters, as
well as added moisture from snow melt to the south of the lake,
may increase the likelihood of fog across the southern part of the
lake late Sunday night into early Monday. Winds ahead of this
system may approach gale force Sunday night into Monday, but the
greater potential for more widespread gales will be following the
passage of the system as strong cold advection sets up following
the passage of the associate strong cold front. There is still a
bit of variance in model guidance on where this low cross will
cross the lake and the timing of the cold frontal passage, so
confidence in timing and duration of gales at this time is low.

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Gale warning... Lmz777-lmz779 until 3 am Saturday.

Small craft advisory... Nearshore waters
until 3 am Saturday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 4 mi139 min S 27 39°F
OKSI2 9 mi139 min W 5.1 41°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 10 mi29 min SSW 25 G 28 38°F 28°F
CNII2 13 mi19 min SSW 15 G 19 37°F 26°F
JAKI2 18 mi139 min SW 8.9 39°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 22 mi49 min S 14 G 21 37°F 1008 hPa27°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 24 mi39 min SSW 16 G 27 39°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi79 min SSW 11 G 18 41°F 1005.8 hPa (-1.3)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 39 mi39 min S 17 G 24 35°F 1009.5 hPa
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 46 mi29 min S 18 G 21 35°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL12 mi27 minSSW 1310.00 miFair39°F27°F62%1007.8 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL12 mi28 minSSW 15 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F27°F65%1007.7 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL17 mi26 minSSW 14 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy37°F28°F73%1009 hPa

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10SW8SW10SW9SW9SW7SW7SW9SW9SW9SW7SW10S10SW9SW8SW8SW11SW11
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SW13SW12SW11
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1 day agoSW12SW15
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2 days agoNW6NW7NW8NW6NW5NW4NW7NW6NW5W4W4W3W3W44W5SW6SW7SW10W12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.