Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duxbury, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:47PM Monday January 22, 2018 9:09 PM EST (02:09 UTC) Moonrise 11:06AMMoonset 11:22PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 716 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.gale warning in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt, decreasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers. Areas of drizzle. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres will pass across the great lakes late tonight and Tuesday. A warm front passes N of the waters, rain will fall heavily at times with gusty south to southeast winds late tonight through Tue. A cold front will pass across the waters Wed as winds shift to W to nw. Winds will remain gusty Wed and Thu as large high pres builds toward the waters. The high will crest over the waters on Fri shifting east of the waters on Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duxbury, MA
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location: 42.04, -70.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 222246
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
546 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
Scattered showers along with areas of drizzle and fog persist
tonight with some light icing possible across interior northern ma.

A fast moving storm system will bring a period of heavy rain and
perhaps even an isolated thunderstorm or two Tuesday along with
strong winds across portions of eastern ma and ri. Blustery,
dry and colder weather follows Wednesday through Friday, then a
warming trend next weekend. A cold front may bring showers next
Sunday or Monday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
545 pm update...

no significant changes to the forecast. Lots of low level
moisture, with weak lift aloft. This should maintain low
clouds fog and areas of drizzle. Radar shows scattered showers
moving west to east, so some spots will have a light shower as
well. Most observations are above freezing and with dew points
at or above freezing. Some higher locations such as worcester
airport may continue to flirt with freezing temps through the
first half of the night.

Previous discussion...

highlights tonight...

* light icing threat across interior northern ma tonight
* areas of dense fog especially across the high terrain
details tonight...

a very subtle wave that passed east of our region earlier today and
has allowed winds to shift northeast over the last few hours.

Portsmouth nh has seen their temp drop from 38 to 30 in the last few
hours. This is often a warning sign for portions of northeast ma, so
opted to extend winter weather advisory into interior essex as well
as middlesex counties. The greatest risk will be near the nh
border... Where temps have already dropped to between 32 and 33 and
may see them fall another few degrees over the next few hours.

Another area of concern remains the high terrain of the worcester
hills and east slopes of the berkshires... Where pockets of light
freezing rain freezing drizzle will continue tonight. Main idea is
if traveling tonight across interior ma... Untreated roads walkways
may be icy even if they look wet.

The other big concern tonight will be areas of fog... Which will be
locally dense. We have already gone ahead and issued a dense fog
advisory for the high terrain given an ideal setup with light moist
northeast winds. Guidance indicates that dense fog may overspread
other portions of the region especially across the interior... So
the dense fog advisory may need to be expanded.

As for precipitation tonight... We are looking at a few showers along
with areas of drizzle and fog. However... High resolution guidance
shows a steadier band of showers moving through the region this
evening. Will also probably also see more showers develop toward
daybreak and low level jet begins to increase. Again... Ptype mainly
liquid with -fzra -fzdz risk across parts of interior ma especially
near the nh border and across the high terrain.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through 6 pm Tuesday
Tuesday highlights...

* heavy rain isolated thunderstorm risk
* brief poor drainage street flooding possible
* period of strong wind gusts along and southeast of bos-pvd corridor
Tuesday details...

perhaps some pockets of left over light freezing rain across
interior ma early Tuesday morning... But that should quickly be
changing over to plain rain. The main story will be surface low
pressure tracking northwest across the great lakes allowing most of
our area to gradually warm sector. This will result in both pwats
and southerly LLJ 3 standard deviations above normal. Will break it
down a bit more below.

Heavy rain isolated thunderstorm concerns...

given the above ingredients combined with strong forcing... Heavy
rain will overspread the region Tuesday morning into the early
afternoon from west to east. The system is quite progressive... So
the bulk of the heavy rain will fall within a 6 hour period.

Rainfall amounts on the order of 0.75 to 1.5 inches are expected.

Model soundings also indicate a few hundred j kg of MUCAPE along
with steep mid level lapse rates... So an isolated thunderstorm or
two is certainly possible. The greatest risk will be near the
southeast new england coast. The heavy rain will mainly just result
in typical brief nuisance poor drainage street flooding. However... A
flood watch has been issued for the millers river near athol where
an ice jam remains frozen in place and has the potential to cause
additional flooding. A flood warning also remains in effect for the
ct river at middle haddam... Where this heavy rain may result in
increased flooding problems as a result of the ice jam.

Fortunately... This system is fairly progressive and the bulk of the
rain should have exited the southeast new england coast by 00z.

Strong wind potential...

a potent southerly low level jet around 80 knots at 925 mb will move
across the southeast new england coast Tuesday afternoon and early
evening. Given surface temperatures expected to warm well into the
50s combined with heavy rain and potential convective elements a
wind advisory has been issued. We are expecting some gusts to 50
mph Tuesday afternoon and early evening along and southeast of the
boston to providence corridor.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
Big picture...

longwave pattern starts the period with a ridge over the plains and
shallow troughs over the pacific and atlantic coasts. The atlantic
trough lingers through the week.

Shortwave scale shows multiple troughs crossing the northern usa
during this period. A small but sharp trough moves across new
england Tuesday night, while a broader trough sweeps across on
Thursday and Friday.

Height fields at 500 mb and thermal fields at 850 mb forecast at
below normal january levels Wednesday night through Friday. Fields
then climb above normal Saturday and Sunday. This supports a colder
than normal period Thursday-Friday, trending milder than normal over
the weekend.

Model mass fields and thermal fields are in agreement through
Friday, followed by differences upstream over the plains over the
weekend. This brings high confidence to the forecast through Friday
and low-moderate confidence Saturday through Monday.

Details...

Tuesday night-Wednesday...

cold front moves well offshore while the parent surface low moves
off through quebec. Dry slot moves up across new england Tuesday
night. With the upper trough and associated cold pool moving
overhead, we would expect some strato-cu during the day
Wednesday... More than any of the forecast guidance is showing. But
with pw values at 0.25 inch or less it may simply be too dry.

Mixed layer depth should reach between 900 and 925 mb. The
warmer deeper mixing would support Wednesday highs in the low to mid
40s, while the colder shallower mixing would support highs in the
mid 30s to around 40. The mixed layer also will contain 20-25 knot
winds, supporting similar daytime wind gusts.

Thursday-Friday...

high pressure builds over the region. Cold advection and a tighter
pressure gradient will mean a blustery day Thursday with gusts 25-30
knots. Thursday temps around -14c at 900 mb suggest MAX temps mainly
in the 20s. Temps climb a couple of degrees Friday, so expect Friday
max temps in the upper 20s to low 30s. With airmass dew points in the
single numbers but lingering northwest wind, expect nighttime lows
in the upper single numbers and teens.

Saturday through Monday...

high pressure shifts offshore and surface winds turn from the
southwest. This will bring milder air back to the region. As noted
above, the incoming airmass is forecast to be above normal. Max
temps should at least reach the 40s with some potential to reach the
50s. Another upper trough is currently timed for early next week,
led by an associated surface cold front . There are differences
in model timing of the trough. The GFS shows FROPA on Tuesday,
the ECMWF shows Monday, and the ggem shows Sunday. So there is
uncertainty in timing of the cold front. For now we will show
chance pops Sunday-Monday. Temperatures look to be warm enough
for any precipitation to be rain showers.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

tonight... Moderate confidence. Ifr to lifr conditions expected in
showers and fog. Some of the fog will be dense. Pockets of
light freezing drizzle or light freezing rain possible across
portions of interior ma... Especially high terrain. Southerly
llws concern increases overnight.

Tuesday... Moderate confidence. Ifr to lifr conditions may
improve to mainly ifr conditions by late morning early afternoon
as the worst of the fog mixes out. However... Roughly a 6 hour
band of heavy rain with perhaps an embedded t-storm or two will
work across the region on Tuesday. Activity should be mainly
offshore by 00z. Southwest wind gusts up to 40 knots expected
along and southeast of the boston to providence corridor during
the afternoon. Llws will be a concern for the rest of the
region.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday night through Saturday ...

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible early.

Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday night through Friday:VFR. Breezy.

Friday night:VFR.

Saturday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

tonight... Moderate to high confidence. Ene winds will shift to se
tonight with some gusts to 25 knots across our eastern waters along
with 3 to 6 foot seas. The rest of our waters should generally have
winds seas remaining below small craft advisory thresholds... But
areas of fog may be locally dense.

Tuesday... Moderate to high confidence. Impressive 70 to 80 knot low
level jet lifts across the region from southwest to northeast.

Despite inversion in place... Heavy rain and enough mixing should
provide a few hours of southwest 35 to 40 knot wind gusts Tuesday
afternoon into the evening. Gale warnings are posted for all waters
as seas build between 7 and 11 feet.

Outlook Tuesday night through Saturday ...

Tuesday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers
early.

Wednesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Wednesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday through Thursday night: moderate risk for small craft
advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Hydrology
The heavy rain will mainly just result in typical brief nuisance poor
drainage street flooding. However... A flood watch has been issued for
the millers river near athol where an ice jam remains frozen in place
and has the potential to cause additional flooding. A flood warning
also remains in effect for the ct river at middle haddam... Where this
heavy rain may result in increased flooding problems as a result of
the ice jam.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the advanced hydrologic
prediction service (ahps) graphs on our website.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Dense fog advisory until 9 am est Tuesday for ctz004.

Ma... Wind advisory from 11 am to 7 pm est Tuesday for maz013-
015>024.

Dense fog advisory until 9 am est Tuesday for maz002-004-008-
009-012-026.

Winter weather advisory until 9 am est Tuesday for maz002>006-
008-026.

Flood watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
maz003-004.

Ri... Wind advisory from 11 am to 7 pm est Tuesday for riz002>008.

Dense fog advisory until 9 am est Tuesday for riz001.

Marine... Gale warning from 9 am to 8 pm est Tuesday for anz232>235-237-
250-254>256.

Gale warning from 10 am to 6 pm est Tuesday for anz230-231-236-
251.

Synopsis... Wtb frank
near term... Wtb frank
short term... Frank
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb frank
marine... Wtb frank
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 21 mi80 min E 5.8 G 7.8 40°F 40°F6 ft1023.6 hPa (-0.7)
44090 23 mi70 min 37°F2 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 30 mi52 min 38°F 1022.9 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 33 mi145 min 4.1 39°F 1024 hPa38°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 34 mi126 min 7.8 G 9.7 40°F 39°F6 ft1023.6 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 35 mi52 min E 8 G 11 39°F 1022.1 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 35 mi52 min 39°F 35°F1023.1 hPa
FRXM3 36 mi58 min 39°F 38°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 36 mi52 min 38°F 34°F1022.9 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi52 min E 2.9 G 4.1 38°F 36°F1022.7 hPa
PVDR1 42 mi52 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 38°F 1023.2 hPa38°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 42 mi52 min ENE 5.1 G 7 37°F 36°F1022.8 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 45 mi52 min E 5.1 G 6 38°F 1022.7 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 45 mi145 min E 6 37°F 1002 hPa37°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 48 mi70 min ENE 14 G 14 38°F 1023.2 hPa (-0.6)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 49 mi80 min E 14 G 16 39°F 37°F1 ft1023.6 hPa (-0.7)39°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA4 mi75 minE 35.00 miFog/Mist39°F37°F93%1024 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA10 mi78 minESE 41.50 miFog/Mist39°F37°F96%1023.9 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA21 mi78 minN 01.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist38°F37°F97%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN44NE4E4NE3NE4E3E5
1 day agoSW444W4SW3SW5W5W4W45SW4SW536SW6354NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmSW5SW5SW6SW7SW9
G15
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5SW85W7

Tide / Current Tables for Duxbury, Duxbury Harbor, Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts
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Duxbury
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:33 AM EST     9.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:06 AM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:46 PM EST     10.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:31 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:21 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.989.49.68.66.94.931.50.71.43.55.989.6109.27.55.43.31.50.30.42

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:52 AM EST     -0.18 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:46 AM EST     -4.15 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:38 AM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:34 AM EST     3.96 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:50 PM EST     -0.03 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:04 PM EST     -4.34 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:01 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:03 PM EST     4.14 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:21 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.5-1-3-3.9-4.1-3.6-2.31.73.23.93.93.42.4-1.1-3-4-4.3-4-3-0.52.93.84.13.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.