Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duxbury, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 4:17PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 3:28 PM EST (20:28 UTC) Moonrise 10:59AMMoonset 8:45PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 318 Pm Est Wed Nov 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain this evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 318 Pm Est Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. The cold front will exit east of waters tonight and be followed by gusty northwest winds. High pres will build over the waters Thu and Fri. Unsettled weather returns on Sat as low pres moves east across southern quebec. Gusty northwest winds follow on Sun ahead of high pres building towards the east coast. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duxbury, MA
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location: 42.04, -70.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 221740
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1240 pm est Wed nov 22 2017

Synopsis
A cold front approaches the region today, and with moisture
working up the eastern seaboard to bring a period of rain this
morning, especially SE new england. Quiet weather Thursday and
Friday. Another shot of wet weather and breezy conditions this
weekend. Drier and milder toward the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
10am update...

obs and msas mass thermal fields suggest cold front has moved
into W ma ct but remains somewhat dammed against the
berkshires litchfield hills. As the peak moisture plume across e
ma ri continues a slow shift to the E with attendant coastal low
pres offshore, this should allow the front to begin to make a
slow transition e. Initially, the added f-gen provided by the
front should lead to a net increase in ra across W ma ct so will
actually feature rising pops over the next few hours. However,
thereafter as CAA dry air begins to entrain through the column,
this ra will end mid-day through the afternoon w-e across S new
england. Will maintain a low risk for occasional tsra as kdp cc
before the radar equipment issue showed good ice signatures
aloft.

Have slowed the E progress of the higher pops this afternoon as
confluence of higher theta-e and phasing of the approaching
front looks to generate a weak meso-low pres which will slow the
drier air moving in. Still, most locations should see the end of
rainfall by sunset.

Previous discussion...

split flow across the region early this morning as northern
stream cold front approaches from the great lakes. Southern
stream shortwave coastal low off the carolina coast will move
northward up the east coast. This system will remain well
offshore but its moisture plume will impact the region.

Currently, surface cold front is making its way into upstate
ny. Radar imagery shows some showers along this front, but
overall moisture is pretty meager. Southern new england remains
in the warm sector ahead of this approaching front thus temps
early this morning have reside above average. In fact, the
office is currently a balmy 51 degrees with nantucket at 56f.

Focusing south, latest goes-16 satellite shows moisture
beginning to stream northwards towards new england thanks to
bermuda high pressure. Current radar imagery shows widespread
showers across the carolina coast, with scattered showers
developing across long island and into southeast massachusetts.

These showers are associated with the upper level jet and mid-
level moisture at 700mb. At the surface, theta-e gradient has
set-up with a 1000-925mb frontogenesis which has help aided the
showers in southern new england. The profile has moisten up as
guidance suggested as rainfall is being reported from wst to
ewb.

Over the next few hours, moisture will continue to stream into
the region as surface cold front from the west approaches. This
will help pool the moisture into the area and push pwat values
to above 1.0 inch by the mid-morning hours. Showers will begin
to overspread the rest of the region after 7am. The combination
of the upper level jet and LLJ will help aid in strong lift for
the region. In fact, guidance continues to hint at strong omega
during the mid-morning hours especially along and points east of
i-95. This combined with the high pwats will lead to heavy
downpours across ri and eastern ma. Ncar ensembles continue to
show the potential for 40dbz during the 7am to noon time-frame.

Also cannot rule out a rumble or thunder as guidance continues
to hint as sb CAPE thanks to higher dewpoints.

Continued to trend QPF towards the ec but with the hi-res
guidance mix in as well. Appears that heavy precip axis will be
along of just east of the i-95 corridor. This is also supported
by the href, ncar ensembles and hrrr. Generally 0.5 to 1 inch
qpf will fall across a line east of ijd to bvy. Highest amounts
will occur just east of i- 95. Areas west of the worcester hills
will see rainfall amounts less than 0.25 inches.

As the front pushes through southern new england, precip will
exit the region by the mid-afternoon. Behind the front, dry but
cooler air will quickly usher into the region leading to temps
dropping through the afternoon hours and winds beginning to pick
up. Overall anticipate a rainy morning leading to heavy
downpours slowing the morning commute. Conditions will improve
by the afternoon hours leading to a great, but chilly start to
the holiday travel.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Tonight into thanksgiving day...

cold front will be offshore by this evening as strong CAA usher
into the region. Good mixing with this cold air aloft resulting
in gusty NW winds near 20-25 mph during the overnight hours.

Surface high pressure approaching from the west may be enough to
allow for the winds to slacken off resulting in radiational
cooling before daybreak. Highest confidence is across the
interior. Thus will keep temps cooler than mav met guidance.

Chilly start to the thanksgiving holiday as high pressure from
the west builds into the region. Weak shortwave aloft will
increase cloud cover during the afternoon. Moisture associated
with this wave looks meager enough to keep the forecast dry.

Westerly winds at the surface as temperatures in the upper 30s
to low 40s across the region. Overall, a chilly but dry turkey
day as temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
* highlights...

- quiet weather through Friday
- showers possible at times this weekend, could be breezy
Sunday
- turning mild Tuesday into Wednesday, could also be breezy
* overview...

22 00z guidance suite is rather good overall agreement into
Sunday. More detail differences become more prevalent early next
week. Continue to favor a consensus approach to smooth over the
less predictable details, particularly with timing and amplitude
of various shortwaves moving through the larger synoptic pattern.

In general, expecting a mid level longwave trough to linger
near our region Friday into Saturday. As previously note, this
is more of a split flow during this time. Majority of the
guidance merges this flow into a deeper mid level trough Sunday
into Monday. This mid level trough expected to finally move
over the maritimes toward the middle of next week.

Only concern for precipitation during this time will be this
weekend. Besides a series of front Saturday, will need to
monitor the progress of an offshore low pressure. At this time,
thinking this coastal low remains far enough east to not have a
major impact other than increasing the pressure gradient,
especially Sunday.

Aviation 17z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

Through 00z this evening..

Mixed ifr toVFR conditions continue with mostVFR W of the
worcester hills and mixed MVFR ifr east through about 21z. After
this point, rapid improvement toVFR all sites from w-e through
the remainder of the evening as winds shift to 320. Gusts to
around 25-30 kt possible also with this wind shift.

Tonight into tomorrow night...

mainlyVFR after this evening. NW winds continue to gust around
25 kt through the overnight hours but then drop off during the
early morning. These winds shift to mainly W tomorrow and
tomorrow night.

Kbos terminal...

mixedVFR MVFR conditions with last batch of rain through about
21z along with e-ne flow. Once winds shift to 320 conditions
improve rapidly thereafter. With the wind shift, gust 25-30 kt
are possible at times, which linger into the overnight.

Kbdl terminal...

mainlyVFR, winds will shift to NW no later than 20z with gusts
to around 25 kt at times lingering into the evening.

Outlook Friday through Sunday ...

Saturday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Saturday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Sunday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ...

today... High confidence.

Passing cold front during the day and passing coastal low well east
of the waters will lead to widespread rainfall today which could
limit vsbys. Seas will remain near 5 feet for the outer waters but
sca have been let go elsewhere.

Tonight into tomorrow... High confidence.

Strong CAA across the relatively warm waters will result in gusts nw
winds between 25-30 kts. Seas will also build in response. SCA have
been reissued to account for this trend. Low confidence on gales for
the eastern ocean waters. Conditions will improve on thanksgiving,
but seas will remain choppy into the afternoon.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ...

thanksgiving day: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Friday through Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday through Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
Thursday for anz230>234-251.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 am est
Thursday for anz236.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 2 pm est
Thursday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 8 pm est
Thursday for anz250.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm est Thursday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Belk dunten
near term... Doody dunten
short term... Dunten
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk doody
marine... Belk dunten


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 21 mi38 min E 3.9 G 7.8 51°F 51°F1 ft1006.9 hPa (-3.2)
44090 23 mi28 min 51°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 30 mi40 min 49°F 1008.2 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 33 mi103 min Calm 53°F 1009 hPa52°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 34 mi84 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 51°F 49°F1 ft1007.2 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 35 mi40 min NNW 15 G 19 51°F 1007.2 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 35 mi40 min 51°F 49°F1008.5 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 36 mi40 min 53°F 51°F1006.6 hPa
FRXM3 36 mi40 min 51°F 50°F
PVDR1 42 mi40 min NW 16 G 22 48°F 1009.2 hPa46°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 42 mi46 min NW 19 G 24 49°F 49°F1008.4 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi40 min N 14 G 21 48°F 48°F1008.8 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 45 mi40 min N 6 G 11 49°F 1008.7 hPa
PRUR1 45 mi40 min 50°F 49°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 45 mi103 min SW 2.9 54°F 990 hPa54°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 48 mi28 min N 1.9 G 2.9 52°F 1007.6 hPa (-3.1)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 49 mi38 min NNE 9.7 G 12 50°F 50°F1 ft1006.8 hPa (-4.3)50°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA4 mi53 minVar 57.00 miOvercast54°F53°F100%1007.4 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA10 mi36 minE 39.00 miLight Rain54°F52°F93%1007.3 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA21 mi36 minNW 74.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist51°F48°F92%1008.1 hPa

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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SW4SW4S4CalmCalmCalm4CalmCalmCalmCalmE45
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1 day agoSW5
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SW3SW3SW54SW6CalmCalmSW4SW7CalmCalmSW5CalmSW5SW6SW9
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2 days ago6
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CalmW84
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4W74W10
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W8

Tide / Current Tables for Duxbury, Duxbury Harbor, Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts
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Duxbury
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:27 AM EST     9.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EST     1.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:31 PM EST     10.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:16 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:45 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:21 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
7.99.39.38.36.853.21.81.32.44.46.58.710.110.19.27.55.53.41.60.50.82.34.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:28 AM EST     -4.14 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:27 AM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:21 AM EST     3.87 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:40 AM EST     -0.12 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:43 PM EST     -4.35 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:16 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:48 PM EST     0.19 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:46 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:50 PM EST     4.09 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.5-3.3-4.1-4-3.4-1.92.13.33.83.83.22.2-1.6-3.3-4.2-4.3-3.8-2.61.33.13.94.13.83.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.