Tuesday, April25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duxbury, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 7:37PM Tuesday April 25, 2017 2:23 PM EDT (18:23 UTC) Moonrise 5:33AMMoonset 6:40PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 144 Pm Edt Tue Apr 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
This afternoon..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Showers with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt...becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 144 Pm Edt Tue Apr 25 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A late season coastal storm tracks up the ern seaboard today into Wed...with periods of moderate to heavy rain. This low pres moves away from the waters early Thu...with a S wind developing. A front should stall over the waters Fri into Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duxbury, MA
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location: 42.04, -70.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 251506
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1106 am edt Tue apr 25 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure will slowly track up the east coast today and
Wednesday, bringing periods of rain, gusty winds, and the risk
of minor coastal flooding. Drier and milder conditions will briefly
return Thursday. A cold front may bring scattered showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms on Friday and stall across the region
on Saturday. A backdoor cold front is possible on Sunday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
1045 am update...

southerly plume of moisture combined with easterly flow
contributing to showers moving through southern new england, and
advancing towards our area from the south. Have noted some
convection in the southern coastal waters with 40 dbz
reflectivity below -10c with isolated thunder. Updated weather
to include isolated thunder within ri and southeast ma, possibly
into northern ct.

East/northeast winds continue through today, with gusts 25 to 30
mph along east coastal ma, southeast ma and southern ri.

Forecast temps are on track.

Early morning discussion follows...

high confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing.

A low pressure off the mid atlantic coast will try to move
north today. However, a weak surface ridge over southern new
england will prevent it from making much northward progress
today. Despite that, moisture will stream north into our region,
resulting in plenty of clouds, and eventually periods of rain,
across all of our region. Precipitable water values approach
1.25-1.50", which is about 2-3 standard deviations above normal.

Rainfall could be heavy at times, especially late this
afternoon. Not thinking this rainfall will lead to river
flooding, but will need to monitor the poor drainage areas,
especially the urban centers.

Dew point depressions across northern ma remain large early this
morning, which means it will be a while longer before
significant rainfall reaches the ground. Previous forecast had
this covered well, so only tweaked the onset timing by an hour
or so to reflect observed trends. Still thinking at least light
rainfall will develop over the region by 9-10 am.

East winds will mean another raw spring day, especially along
the coasts. MAX temperatures today are expected to be around 10
degrees below normal.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday/
Tonight... High confidence.

Widespread rainfall will fall tonight as weak ridge over
southern new england breaks down. A strong southeast low level
jet will also approach, especially after midnight. Not a lot of
instability, but marginal mid level lapse rates could result in
a few thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday morning. The most
likely area where this could occur remains the CAPE and islands,
due to their proximity with the low level jet.

Temperatures should remain steady or slowly rise tonight,
especially across ri and SE ma. Gusty easterly winds will
continue tonight along the coast.

Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Low pressure continues to move slowly north along the coast.

Still expecting this low to remain south of our region through
Wednesday evening. Despite that, the mid level low associated
with this system should be overhead, opening the door for mid
level drying to bring an end to the widespread rainfall.

Thinking this is more likely to happen during the afternoon
hours, but do not have a lot of confidence in the exact timing.

Even so, scattered areas of rain, or perhaps drizzle, may
persist for much of the afternoon.

Low risk for thunderstorms continuing, mainly across the cape
and islands, and the adjacent coastal waters.

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/
Highlights...

* active weather pattern through the period
* moderating temperatures towards the end of the work week
* possible back door cold front on Sunday
pattern overview...

00z guidance is in good agreement for the synoptic scale, does
have issues at the mesoscale level that will need to be
resolved. An active weather pattern will continue into the
extended as cut-off low pressure will begin to move towards the
maritimes Thursday morning. Long wave trough over the central
conus will result in a narrow short wave ridge axis which will
move across the region during the later half of Thursday.

Approaching cold front on Friday appears to be stalled/weaken as
bermuda high builds into the region. This puts the flow/mid-
level boundary right over the region with several waves moving
out of the plains, this could result in on/off showery weather
Saturday and into Sunday. There is the potential for a backdoor
cold front due to passing wave over the maritimes on Sunday
keeping things a bit cooler Sunday into Monday. Potent cold
front moving across the great lakes late Sunday will result in
strong ridging for Monday with cold frontal passage on Tuesday.

Details...

Thursday into Friday... High confidence.

Upper level low still lingers early Thursday before moving
towards the maritimes during the later half of the day. Both
low and mid- levels are still fairly moist so anticipate clouds
to stick around as well as hit or miss showers thanks to onshore
flow. Thursday will start on the cooler side as 850 mb temps
fall to about 8-10 c thanks to weak caa. However later in the
day, strong WAA returns from narrow short wave ridge which will
dry out the mid-levels and 850 mb temps warm to near 13c. Still
anticipate a few rogue showers if not sprinkles during the day.

Soupy conditions for the overnight with fog as dewpoints remain
high.

Approaching cold front on Friday will keep clouds around the
area as well as strong southwesterly flow. Dewpoints could
reach into the mid to upper 50s during the day, and depending on
the amount of sunshine, we could see enough CAPE for a rumble
of thunder. Still some uncertainty with this system as mid-level
ridge from bermuda high will be increasing heights ahead of
approaching cold front. This will stall and/or weaken the front
as it arrives. There is also some timing issues with the ec/cmc
a bit more progressive with this frontal system versus the gfs.

Still cannot rule out some showery activity with a rumble of
thunder. Some of these showers could contain heavy downpours as
pwat values increase to above an inch to near 1.5 inches.

The weekend... Moderate confidence.

Bermuda high continues to build with ridging over the eastern
conus. Potent southern plains trough will dig and slowly move
eastward through the period. This will keep the region in a
continuous southwesterly flow as gulf moisture continues to
stream into the area thanks to bermuda high. A few pieces of
shortwave will move through the flow which could trigger a few
showers on Saturday. Temperatures will be warm with Saturday
appearing to be the pick of the weekend with highs in the 70s to
low 80s, despite the rain/cloud cover. Cannot rule out a rumble
of thunder.

Upper level ridge over the region, will flatten overnight and
into Sunday as northern wave shortwave across canada drops a
back door cold front. Still some uncertainty on timing and how
strong the front will be but both GFS and ec dropped surface
temps be 15-20f compared to previous runs. Thus have a lower
confidence in this forecast.

Next week... Moderate confidence in trends, low confidence on
specifics.

Potent trough across the central CONUS will approach the region
by early next week. High pwat airmass will continue to stream
into the region resulting in showers well ahead of cold frontal
passage. Still some timing with the ec still a bit more
progressive versus the GFS and its 12z run. But overall good
model consensus that system will moving into the region
Monday/Tuesday.

Aviation /15z Tuesday through Saturday/
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Wednesday/...

today and tonight... High confidence in trends. Moderate
confidence in timing. Ifr/lifr conditions prevail through this
afternoon, with the potential exception of bdl/baf vicinity
where MVFR conditions are expected thru early this afternoon,
deteriorating to ifr late this afternoon. E wind gusts to 30 kt
developing over cape/islands with winds veering to SE tonight
with similar gusts. Llws developing cape/islands this evening as
se/s low level jet at 50+ kt develops, especially after
midnight.

Wednesday... Moderate confidence. MVFR-ifr CIGS continue with
areas of -ra/ra and patchy fog, especially across the eastern
half of southern new england. Reduced vsbys likely, down to ifr
in spots. May see areas of lifr CIGS across the higher inland
terrain and along the coast. SE winds gusting up to around 25 kt
across CAPE cod and the islands. Low risk of tsra, especially
the S coastal terminals. Llws impacts for the CAPE and islands
during the morning hours.

Kbos taf... Moderate confidence.

Kbdl taf... Moderate confidence.

Outlook /Wednesday night through Saturday/...

Wednesday night into Thursday... Moderate confidence. Showers
continue with MVFR/ifr conditions. Cannot rule out lifr in fog
and dz during the overnight hours. Improving conditions later
Thursday.

Friday... Moderate confidence. MVFR/ifr possible during the
overnight hours in fog. Showers moving from west to east
resulting in possible MVFR conditions. Iso tsra is possible with
heavy downpours.

Saturday... Moderate confidence.VFR with possible MVFR in
passing showers.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Wednesday/... High confidence.

Increasing easterly flow across the coastal waters today into
tonight. Gusts up to 30 kt possible, especially across the
southern coastal waters. Widespread rain will also develop from
south to north this morning, and be heaviest tonight into
Wednesday morning. Plenty of visibility restrictions in both
rain and fog expected. Low risk of thunderstorms, mainly on the
southern waters.

Extended small craft advisories across most waters through
Wednesday.

Outlook /Wednesday night through Saturday/...

Thursday... High confidence. Lingering southeast swell will help
keep seas up on Wed pm into Thursday. Conditions begin to
relax/improve, but small craft advisory will still be needed.

Friday... Moderate confidence. Southwesterly flow with outer seas
near 5 feet. Moderate confidence on if small craft advisory will
be needed or not, as showers pass over later in the day.

Saturday... Moderate confidence. Southwesterly flow continues with
hit or miss showers. Seas lingering near 4-5 feet. Low confidence on
if small craft advisory will be needed.

Tides/coastal flooding
* potential minor flooding impacts during astronomically high
tides tonight through Wednesday along the east and south
coasts
not anticipating any flooding impacts for the high tide later
today, as winds, surge and seas will not have built up enough.

Minor flooding possible during the high tide cycles tonight and
Wednesday along both coastlines. A storm surge around 1 ft with
low risk of 1.5 ft surge on top of high astronomical tides and
building seas may lead to minor inundation of vulnerable
shoreline roads. Some beach erosion is also possible, especially
for east and southeast facing beaches.

Boston high tides (flood stage 12.5 feet)...

11.47 feet / Tuesday 11:20 pm
11.15 feet / Wednesday 11:50 am
providence high tides (flood stage 7 feet)...

5.98 feet / Tuesday 8:11 pm
5.53 feet / Wednesday 841 am

Box watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 3 pm edt Wednesday for anz231>234.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for anz230-
236.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Wednesday for anz235-237-
250-251-254>256.

Synopsis... Belk/evt
near term... Belk/dunten/nmb
short term... Belk
long term... Evt
aviation... Belk/evt/nmb
marine... Belk/evt
tides/coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 21 mi93 min NE 18 G 21 46°F 46°F4 ft1023.4 hPa (-0.8)
44090 23 mi49 min 45°F3 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 30 mi53 min 48°F 48°F1024.6 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 33 mi98 min 7 51°F 50°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 34 mi79 min NE 18 G 21 45°F 45°F4 ft1024.1 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 35 mi53 min NE 19 G 22 49°F 1020.7 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 35 mi53 min 50°F 49°F1022.2 hPa
FRXM3 36 mi53 min 49°F 47°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 36 mi53 min 50°F 48°F1021.1 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi53 min E 9.9 G 16 49°F 51°F1021.5 hPa
PVDR1 42 mi53 min NE 12 G 18 51°F 1021.9 hPa49°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 42 mi53 min NNE 17 G 23 49°F 52°F1021.7 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 45 mi53 min ENE 15 G 21 49°F 1021.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 45 mi98 min NE 17 50°F 1022 hPa49°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 48 mi83 min NE 23 G 26 49°F 1021.1 hPa (-1.4)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 49 mi93 min 48°F3 ft1020.9 hPa (-1.6)

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA4 mi28 minNNE 7 G 120.50 miLight Rain46°F44°F93%1023.7 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA10 mi31 minNNE 107.00 miLight Rain47°F45°F93%1023.1 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA21 mi31 minVar 53.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist48°F46°F93%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE7S9S6S5S4S4S7
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S4CalmCalmNE6NE5NE8E8NE8NE74NE8
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1 day agoSE9SE8SE9SE8
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365CalmNW4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalm66
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NE6NE7NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Duxbury, Duxbury Harbor, Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts
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Duxbury
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:21 AM EDT     -0.83 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:05 AM EDT     11.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:26 PM EDT     11.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.28.25.73.10.7-0.7-0.41.74.67.610.211.310.89.16.84.11.5-0.3-0.713.971011.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:03 AM EDT     0.21 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:04 AM EDT     4.48 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:24 AM EDT     -0.19 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:20 PM EDT     -4.81 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:24 PM EDT     0.04 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:27 PM EDT     4.64 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:49 PM EDT     -0.21 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-4.7-4.3-3.3-0.73.14.14.54.33.62-2.6-4.1-4.8-4.7-3.8-2.12.544.64.642.9-1.5-3.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.