Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Duxbury, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:12AMSunset 8:07PM Friday May 24, 2019 5:04 AM EDT (09:04 UTC) Moonrise 12:28AMMoonset 10:12AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 441 Am Edt Fri May 24 2019
.gale warning in effect from 1 pm edt this afternoon through this evening...
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming N 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 5 ft, subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 441 Am Edt Fri May 24 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will push offshore early today, followed by gusty north to northwest winds. High pres builds across new england tonight, then across the waters Sat. Another cold front moves across the waters Sat night, with another weak system moving across late Sunday. High pres builds across on Mon, with another system approaching Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duxbury, MA
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location: 42.04, -70.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 240807
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
407 am edt Fri may 24 2019

Synopsis
Windy and seasonable conditions today. Much of Saturday looks dry
with pleasant temperatures, but a fast moving disturbance will
probably bring a period of showers late Saturday into early Sunday.

The rest of Sunday into memorial day looks to be warm and mainly
dry. Showers and cool temperatures return Tuesday as a warm front
approaches from the south. Unsettled weather pattern lingers into
Thursday, but not a washout.

Near term until 6 am this morning
915 pm update...

line of strong to severe storms along the cold front moving ese
from central and eastern ny. Convection is firing within an
area of mucapes 500-1000 j kg and 0-3km lapse rates 6.5-7 c km.

Environment is much less favorable over new eng. There will be
some elevated CAPE developing as the convection moves into sne
but low level lapse rates are poor and surface instability is
nil so expect a weakening trend. 3km NAM handing the convection
reasonably well. Area of showers and sct t-storms expected to
sweep across sne tonight, reaching NW ma 02-03z and rest of the
region 03-06z. A few strong storms are possible in NW ma but
activity will weaken as it approaches the coastal plain. Drying
trend overnight behind the cold front with partial clearing.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Saturday
Friday into Friday night ...

breezy, seasonable, dry conditions. Potent shortwave and mid-level
h5 trof digs out towards SE canada promoting further cyclogenesis
that along the backside of which will amplify the low-level wind
profile and promote steep lapse rates to h8. Moisture lingering,
one of two things: 1.) some light shower activity is possible
along e-coastal ma, and 2.) all of S new england will see breezy
n winds with gusts up as high as 40 mph but below wind advisory
thresholds. Scattered to broken cloud decks, more than likely
thicker further e. Highs around the upper 60s during the day.

Both clouds and winds dissipate going into the evening and
overnight, but lingering enough to limit radiational cooling.

Lows down into the 40s.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
Highlights...

* period of showers Sat night, lingering into early Sun CAPE islands
* warm and mainly dry Sun Mon with 80s Sun away from south coast
* cool and potentially wet tue
* showery pattern may persist into Thu but not a washout
overview...

overall pattern features sne on northern periphery of strong se
conus subtropical ridge. As such, we will be vulnerable to
shortwaves and fronts moving through the region with periods of
showers from time to time, but warm and dry periods as well. Temps
in the extended period will be changeable and dependent on where
boundaries set up. Forecast confidence diminishes by Wed Thu due to
uncertainty with location of shortwaves moving over the ridge and
placement of boundaries. The ridge will get pushed to the east by
thu as trough approaches from the lakes.

Saturday night into Sunday...

fast moving shortwave approaches Sat night and guidance is
indicating an instability burst developing at the nose of a low
level jet as low level theta-e ridge moves into the region. This
will lead to some showers moving into sne and can't rule out a few t-
storms as marginal instability develops aloft. The showers may
linger into early Sun on the CAPE islands, otherwise drying Sun with
westerly flow. Should see a fair amount of sunshine developing after
some early morning clouds, with warm temps. 925 mb temps around 20c
support highs in the low to mid 80s, except 70s along the south
coast. A weak cold front move into the region in the afternoon and
can't rule out an isolated t-storm as marginal instability develops
in the afternoon.

Monday...

front is offshore with high pres building to the north leading to a
mostly sunny day. Cooler temps aloft Mon but still a warm day with
highs in the 70s and possibly 80 ct valley. Sea-breezes expected to
develop keeping coastal communities a bit cooler.

Tuesday...

could be a wet and cool day as warm front approaches and gets jammed
up to the southwest with moist onshore flow and cool high pres to
the east. Numerous showers expected along with a few t-storms
possible as instability aloft develops. Temps may end up cooler than
forecast with potential for 50s in some locations if it's wet
with SE flow.

Wednesday into Thursday...

low confidence for wed. Earlier guidance was hinting at summer heat
moving into sne for Wed but latest guidance has backed off on this
with boundary remaining near or south of new eng. It all hinges on
positioning of shortwave riding over the ridge which models can't
resolve at this time range. It is still possible the front pushes
to the north with a hot day but this is very much uncertain and
temps could end up below normal.

Mid level trough approaches from the lakes region Thu which will
lead to increasing risk of showers t-storms. If the warm air doesn't
get in here for wed, the approaching trough and cold front should
push warm temps into sne for Thu with potential for 80s.

Aviation 08z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

915 pm update...

timing of showers and sct t-storms 03-04z bdl baf orh and
bos pvd 04-05z, a bit faster than previous forecast suggested.

Previous discussion...

mostlyVFR across the region, though ifr with low ceilings
starting to move in along the south coast of ri and ma. Line of
thunderstorms out in western ny as of just before 00z will
quickly sweep southeast. Should be affecting bdl baf locations
about 02z, orh about 03z and then bos-pvd about 04z. Tried to
keep tempo groups to primary 2 hour window for the activity.

Tsra should be diminishing as things move across the region, so
kept mostly the "vcts" aspect, and we can update later to better
indicate the details of the thunder portion. Expect ifr MVFR
conditions as the showers push through. Some llws will persist
into the early overnight. A cold front will move through,
generally after 06z, with conditions improving toVFR area wide
by 12z. Gusty northwest surface winds tomorrow, with most taf
locations seeing frequent gusts around 30kt from 15z through 20z
or so. Potential for isolated gusts near 40kt. Winds diminish
quickly Friday evening.VFR Friday night.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Breezy.

Shra likely, slight chance tsra.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra, isolated tsra.

Sunday night through Monday night:VFR.

Tuesday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Chance shra,
slight chance tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

Rest of today ...

sw winds sustained around 10 to 15 kts, gusts around 20 to 25
kts will push seas 3 to 5 feet on the outer waters. Small craft
advisories issued accordingly.

Tonight...

sw winds continue prior to a sweeping cold front during the early
morning hours. Will see sustained 10 to 15 kts with gusts around
20 to 25 kts throughout as the cold front sweeps through, SW winds
shifting w, waves building 5 to 7 feet on the outer waters. Lower
visibility with any heavy showers or thunderstorms that are forecast
ahead of the sweeping cold front. Heavy rain elements occurring
around midnight.

Friday into Friday night ...

gales over the E waters by midday into afternoon with overcast
cloud decks and possible light showers. Winds dissipating into
evening and overnight. Waves on the outer waters possibly
pushing up as high as 8 to 10 feet peaking close to sunset then
dissipating thereafter.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Memorial day: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight
chance of thunderstorms.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale watch from 2 pm edt this afternoon through this evening
for anz231-232-250-254-255.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt early this morning for
anz232>234.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for anz235-
237.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for anz250-
254>256.

Synopsis... Sipprell ajn
near term... Sipprell evt ajn
short term... Sipprell
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc evt
marine... Kjc sipprell evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 21 mi75 min SW 12 G 14 57°F 52°F2 ft1002.5 hPa (-2.1)56°F
44090 23 mi35 min 52°F1 ft
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 30 mi75 min SW 16 G 18 55°F 3 ft1002.9 hPa (-4.8)54°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 30 mi41 min 63°F 1003.4 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 33 mi80 min NW 1.9 58°F 1005 hPa57°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 34 mi61 min WSW 16 G 18 56°F 51°F4 ft1000.9 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 35 mi35 min WSW 17 G 20 61°F 1004.6 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 35 mi35 min 61°F 59°F1005.3 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 36 mi35 min 56°F 56°F1004.7 hPa
FRXM3 36 mi41 min 61°F 59°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 42 mi35 min W 7 G 8 61°F 58°F1005.4 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi35 min NW 6 G 8.9 62°F 57°F1004.8 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 43 mi35 min SW 16 G 18 55°F1004.6 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 45 mi80 min SW 5.1 58°F 1006 hPa57°F
PRUR1 45 mi35 min 58°F 57°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA4 mi70 minWSW 510.00 miFair61°F60°F100%1003.7 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA10 mi73 minWSW 610.00 miFair60°F55°F86%1004.2 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA21 mi73 minWSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds62°F57°F86%1004.5 hPa

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Gurnet Point, Massachusetts
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Gurnet Point
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Fri -- 12:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:46 AM EDT     9.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:16 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:30 PM EDT     8.49 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:29 PM EDT     1.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.15.97.89.29.58.87.35.43.41.50.60.823.65.57.38.48.47.56.24.62.91.81.8

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:54 AM EDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:55 AM EDT     -4.28 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:05 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:11 AM EDT     3.99 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:49 PM EDT     -0.04 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:28 PM EDT     -3.86 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:31 PM EDT     0.17 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:24 PM EDT     3.52 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.32.5-0.9-3-4-4.3-3.9-3-0.92.73.643.93.42.5-1.2-3.1-3.8-3.8-3.2-1.91.833.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.