Duxbury, MA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Duxbury, MA

May 19, 2024 11:05 AM EDT (15:05 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:16 AM   Sunset 8:03 PM
Moonrise 4:17 PM   Moonset 3:18 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 1005 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024

This afternoon - NE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 7 seconds and N 2 ft at 3 seconds. Periods of drizzle with a chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm.

Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 7 seconds and N 2 ft at 4 seconds. A chance of showers. Periods of drizzle in the evening. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.

Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 8 seconds and N 1 foot at 4 seconds.

Mon night - SE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds and ne 1 foot at 3 seconds.

Tue and Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 8 seconds and S 1 foot at 3 seconds.

Wed through Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 2 ft at 8 seconds.

Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 1005 Am Edt Sun May 19 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - Slow moving low pres will continue to bring cloudy, showery weather with northeast breezes today. High pres over coastal maine then settles over the waters on Mon and continues thru Wed. A cold front brings the risk for showers and Thunderstorms on Thurs. High pres then builds in for Fri into early memorial day weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Duxbury, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 191410 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1010 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
One final day of unsettled conditions before a significant pattern shift to drier and warmer weather on Monday. Very warm temperatures are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures reaching into the 80s, with an outside chance a few locations see 90 degrees on Wednesday. Humidity levels will be on the low side accompanying that midweek warmth. A cold front arrives on Thursday with the potential for showers and thunderstorms. A drier and more seasonable air mass then filters in for late in the week into at least the early part of Memorial Day Weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

1015 AM Update:

KBOX radar and TBOS showing firehose of low level moisture continuing to come off the ocean and onshore into eastern MA, the Worcester Hills, into RI and southeast MA. Meanwhile, aloft, short wave energy is diving southward from the ME coast into eastern MA. This is firing convection ENE of PVC. More importantly, this short wave energy is delaying height rises that are currently occurring west of New England from advecting eastward. Thus, we are stuck in this moist low level flow. As the short wave energy moves offshore later today, the axis of low level moisture will shift slowly southward. Therefore, drizzle and low clouds may be confined to southeast MA later today, with a drying trend elsewhere.

Already seeing breaks in the overcast across western MA into northwest CT. Given the low level moisture axis is expected to shift slightly southward later today, these breaks of sunshine should spread eastward across CT, possibly to the RI border late in the day. In MA, breaks of sunshine will advance eastward from western MA into central MA, possibly into the Merrimack Valley of northeast MA late in the day. Likely remaining overcast with periods of drizzle for southeast MA, including Cape Cod and the Islands. The only change to the forecast was to add periods of drizzle where currently observed and lingering into southeast MA through the day. Otherwise, all other forecast parameters appear on track.

Most locations will see highs in the 60s, except low 70s across western MA/CT given duration of partial, strong May sunshine.
The other exception will be across eastern MA, especially southeast MA, where onshore flow with NE winds 15-20 mph streaming across SSTs in the 50s, will yield highs only in the 50s.



SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/

While the chance for showers drops significantly overnight, model soundings suggest that stratus/drizzle will hang tough across SE MA/Cape Cod, and fog, perhaps dense at times, will develop across interior southern New England. It will be a seasonable night with temperatures dropping into the upper 40s to low 50s.

Surface high nestles safely over southern New England Monday as mid level ridging continues to build in intensity and 850mb temps climb to between 12-14C by 00Z Tuesday. Given this, well deserved, shift in the synoptic setup over southern New England, expecting much more sunshine across the region as early morning fog/stratus/drizzle dissipates quickly through 15Z; though may take until 18/20Z across the Cape and Islands. Although temps remain mild aloft, boundary layer mixing does not look overly impressive, perhaps to ~925mb, so dropped temperatures from what was depicted by the NBM (80s across the interior) to more conservative high temperatures in the mid 70s away from the coast. While flow shifts to the south gradually through the day, it will shift latest, as late as 22Z, along the coast, so the "synoptic seabreeze" will lead to another significant temperature gradient along the immediate coast, where temperatures will struggle to hit 60. In fact, temperatures may not climb out of the 50s on the Cape all day!

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Highlights:

* Very warm temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday away from the southeast coast, with readings into the 80s. Warmest day is Wednesday, and a few locations in the Connecticut and Merrimack Valleys could see their first 90-degree temperature in 2024 on Wednesday! Humidity levels will be tolerable - a "dry heat".

* Cold front moves through sometime on Thursday. Timing of the front is still uncertain but the timing will influence how warm temperatures get and also the potential for thunderstorms, which could be strong.

* Drier with more seasonable temperatures for late in the week into the early Memorial Day Weekend.

Details:

00z ensembles continue to advertise a significant warm spell for at least Tuesday and Wednesday for most of Southern New England. Full sun and southwest downsloping breezes, combined with 850 mb temps around +13 to +15C should be fairly common on Tuesday with 850 mb temps rising about a degree or so on Wednesday. It is likely that the Providence to Plymouth corridor on southward to Cape Cod and the Islands would be the cooler locations given southwest flow off the water, with values in the 70s to lower 80s and upper 60s-around 70 for Cape Cod. Very warm temperatures are expected further north and west from there, with persistent SW flow keeping the eastern MA sea breeze from developing. Of the two days, Wednesday projects as the warmest. Highs on Tuesday away from the southern coast should reach into the lower to mid 80s, with readings near 80 for the North Shore into Greater Boston. Probabilistic maximum temperature data from the NBM for Wednesday indicates 50-70% probs for highs reaching the 90- degree mark in the CT and Merrimack Valleys! Mid to upper 80s being common to the Providence-Plymouth corridor. Kept highs for southeast coastal New England on Wednesday into the 70s to low 80s. Thus it is looking likely that we'll see summerlike temperatures making their first appearance in 2024 on Tuesday and Wednesday for a large part of Southern New England, with many likely not yet acclimatized to this warmth as yet. It's also more of the "toasty" heat versus the oppressive/muggy kind: very warm ambient air temps but with tolerable humidity levels, as dewpoints are expected in the mid to upper 50s.

A cold front then approaches sometime on Thursday, with increasing cloud cover. The biggest question mark is on the timing of the front, which will influence both how warm we get pre-frontal passage and the potential potency of showers and t-storms along and ahead of the front. Not out of the question that Thursday could still be quite warm if we see a slower timing similar to the ECMWF. Kept temps a little cooler than NBM but even with clouds we should see highs reach the lower to mid 80s again for most except southeast New England. Thursday could also feature scattered strong to perhaps severe t-storms too if the timing of the front coincides with peak daytime heating; GFS shows a convective environment with about 1000 J/kg of CAPE with about 40-45 kt of wind shear in the 0-6 km layer for Thursday.
Machine-learning progs from Colorado State weren't available with the 00z guidance but the prior run hinted at the potential for storms becoming severe in interior sections of New England.
Kept PoP around 30-50 percent, but those will need to be adjusted pending the timing of the front. But Thursday should be the next best chance for rains.

A more seasonable airmass then returns on NW flow for Friday and Saturday, with drier weather also returning.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

15z TAF Update:

Not much change from previous forecast. Not much change to previous thinking. Axis of low clouds and drizzle may shift slowly southward later today. Otherwise, some improvement with dry weather and MVFR conditions lifting to VFR across CT and western MA, possibly into central MA. Meanwhile, not much change across eastern MA and RI. Possibly drier late today across northern RI into interior NE MA. Earlier discussion below.

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Today: High confidence in trends but lower to moderate on vsbys and coverage of any showers.

IFR to periods LIFR ceilings from central MA and RI eastward, with 3-6 SM vsby BR and intervals of drizzle or spotty rain showers; categorical improvement is not expected. MVFR ceilings for the western airports should trend to VFR by 17-19z. NE winds around 10-12 kt for the coastline, and around 4-7 kt across the interior.

Tonight...

Conditions deteriorate overnight with widespread fog, LIFR to MVFR once again. Pockets of drizzle likely across eastern MA/RI and the Cape and Islands. NE winds diminish to near calm across the interior, leading to fog, and 15kt across the outer Cape.

Monday...

LIFR to MVFR and any fog that develops overnight will quickly rebound to VFR for the duration of the day, though it may take until 15Z or so to burn off on the Cape and Islands. Winds generally less than 10kt and will finally begin to shift from the E/NE to the S, shifting first across the interior and last along the eastern coastline.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF/trends but lower to moderate on vsbys and rain coverage. IFR ceilings today and tonight, areas of DZ/BR with vsbys around 3-6 SM. Vsbys probably trend closer to 6SM by late this morning. Sub-VFR likely into at least a part of Monday morning. NE winds around 10-12 kt today, easing to around 4-8 kt tonight and Monday.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF/trends but moderate on timing.
MVFR initially, although cloud bases lift to VFR around/after 18Z. Sub-VFR returns tonight. NE winds around 4-7 kt today and tonight becoming more southerly on Monday.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night through Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

3 AM update...

Sunday... High Confidence.

Offshore low and maritime high move very little, thus morning low clouds, fog and spotty light rain and drizzle expected. Some improvement in the afternoon. NE winds 10 to 20kt. Seas in excess of 5ft across the outer waters.

Sunday night...High confidence.

More of the same weather given offshore low and maritime high persist. Lighter winds and maritime high slowly advects over the MA/RI waters. Small craft conditions continue for the eastern outer waters with seas over 5 feet.

Monday... High confidence

Morning stratus/fog/drizzle will clear gradually though the day, though may hang tough across the waters through 18Z/20Z. NE winds gradually shift to the south late in the day, but high pressure over New England will keep winds rather light, 5-10kt with an occasional morning gust to 15kt. Small craft conditions possible for the extreme outer waters with seas still around 5ft.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ254.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 21 mi36 min NE 14G16 51°F 53°F30.0550°F
44090 23 mi66 min 49°F 53°F2 ft
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 30 mi56 min 51°F6 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 30 mi48 min 54°F 30.04
NBGM3 31 mi48 min NE 17G23 54°F 30.00
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 34 mi122 min NE 14G16 51°F 52°F6 ft30.04
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 35 mi48 min NE 13G17 56°F 30.00
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 35 mi48 min 56°F 53°F30.01
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 36 mi48 min 54°F 55°F29.99
FRXM3 36 mi48 min 56°F 52°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 42 mi48 min N 17G20 56°F 56°F30.00
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi48 min N 9.9G19 57°F 52°F30.01
PVDR1 42 mi48 min NNE 11G19 59°F 30.0253°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 43 mi36 min NE 14G18 52°F 55°F29.9750°F
CHTM3 45 mi48 min 50°F 54°F29.99
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 45 mi141 min ESE 12 57°F 30.0154°F
PRUR1 45 mi48 min 57°F 53°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 45 mi48 min ENE 12G14 57°F 30.02
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 48 mi66 min NNE 19G21 53°F 29.99
44085 49 mi66 min 53°F 53°F3 ft
PDVR1 49 mi48 min N 12G18 59°F 29.9852°F


Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KGHG MARSHFIELD MUNI GEORGE HARLOW FIELD,MA 4 sm10 minvar 07G139 smOvercast54°F50°F88%30.04
KPYM PLYMOUTH MUNI,MA 10 sm13 minNNE 13G208 smOvercast54°F50°F88%30.01
KTAN TAUNTON MUNI KING FIELD,MA 22 sm13 minNNE 08G1610 smOvercast57°F48°F72%30.02
KPVC PROVINCETOWN MUNI,MA 24 sm9 minNE 111/4 smOvercast Lt Rain Mist 50°F50°F100%30.04
Link to 5 minute data for KGHG


Wind History from GHG
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Tide / Current for Duxbury, Duxbury Harbor, Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts
   
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Duxbury, Duxbury Harbor, Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts, Tide feet


Tide / Current for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
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Sun -- 01:16 AM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:17 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:27 AM EDT     3.59 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:33 AM EDT     -0.14 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:21 AM EDT     -3.94 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:34 PM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:49 PM EDT     3.80 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:01 PM EDT     -0.03 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:47 PM EDT     -4.00 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
-2.9
1
am
-1.4
2
am
2.2
3
am
3.2
4
am
3.6
5
am
3.5
6
am
3.2
7
am
2.1
8
am
-1.9
9
am
-3.4
10
am
-3.9
11
am
-3.8
12
pm
-3.2
1
pm
-2
2
pm
1.8
3
pm
3.1
4
pm
3.7
5
pm
3.8
6
pm
3.6
7
pm
2.8
8
pm
0.5
9
pm
-2.9
10
pm
-3.8
11
pm
-4


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Boston, MA,




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