Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Harbor, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:49PM Saturday November 18, 2017 2:27 AM PST (10:27 UTC) Moonrise 7:10AMMoonset 5:32PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 208 Am Pst Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..High pressure will remain over the coastal waters with mostly light winds and low seas today. South winds will increase again ahead of the next front Sunday with gales and very steep seas likely Sunday afternoon. Winds are expected to decrease some on Monday night but will increase again Tuesday and Wednesday. Unsettled weather will then continue through much of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harbor, OR
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location: 42.05, -124.27     debug

Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 180625
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1025 pm pst Fri nov 17 2017
updated aviation section

Discussion No updates are planned this evening. High pressure
building in over the area has ended any threat for showers, and
now we turn our attention to the cold temperatures and fog
tonight. Frost advisories and freeze warnings remain in effect for
much of the umpqua basin and the coastal zones inland from the
coast for late tonight and tomorrow morning, and this still looks
on track. It will be even colder elsewhere tonight, but we are
beyond the growing season in other locations. Fog is already
starting to develop over some of the valleys and along the coast,
and this is only going to become thicker and more widespread as
the night GOES on. Pretty much all our valley locations are
expected to have fog by tomorrow morning, including the east side
valleys. With warm air building in aloft, there is also some
question as to how soon (or if) fog clears out tomorrow. Guidance
still shows fog decreasing by late morning, and we'll stick with
that for now. However, there is a chance that some valleys, the
umpqua, for example, clear very late or not at all. -wright

Aviation 18 06z TAF cycle... Expect MVFR ifr ceilings visibility
in stratus and fog in the valleys along the coast and north of the
umpqua divide through Saturday morning. These will expand over the
west side valleys and also in the valleys of western siskiyou county
overnight into Saturday morning.VFR will prevail east of the
cascades, but patchy fog may develop in some of the deeper valleys,
like the klamath basin, toward morning.VFR will return to most
areas Saturday afternoon, but low ceilings may last through mid-
afternoon in some of the deeper west side valleys. -spilde

Marine Updated 845 pm pst Friday 17 november 2017... High pressure
will remain over the coastal waters with mostly light winds and low
seas through Saturday. South winds will increase again ahead of the
next front Sunday with gales and very steep seas likely Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. Confidence is high that seas will
build to around 15 feet Sunday night from gold beach north, with
seas possibly building to 17 feet north of coos bay. Unsettled
weather will then continue through much of next week. -sven spilde

Prev discussion issued 239 pm pst Fri nov 17 2017
short term... Tonight through Monday... Current visible satellite
shows plenty of cumulus across the forecast area. Only a few very
brief, light returns on the radar and only light amounts being
reported in the area. Satellite shows these clouds thinning out
and showers should continue to diminish in coverage as the
afternoon progresses. There'll be a break in the weather tonight,
Saturday and into Sunday morning as a long wave ridge moves
through the forecast area.

Tonight, as skies continue to clear and with a cold air mass in
place, expect temperatures to drop after sunset. Temperatures
east of the cascades look to be in the mid to upper teens, with
mid to upper 20s expected in the valleys west of the cascades. The
exception will be the umpqua basin where fog is expected to
develop early enough to keep temperatures relatively warmer. Even
still, it will be cold enough to warrant frost and freeze concerns
for these areas as they haven't experienced enough of these cold
temperatures to end growing season. Have issued a frost advisory
for the umpqua and coquille basins and a freeze warning for the
southern portion of douglas county. See npwmfr for more details on
this. Fog is expected elsewhere in most of the west side valleys
and with temperatures being as low as expected, freezing fog is
likely. If you still have sensitive outdoor vegetation, be sure to
take protective actions to prevent any potential damage.

On Saturday, the challenge will be how long morning fog lingers.

This will make for a challenging high temperature forecast. With
a ridge in place, it's possible that fog lingers for much of the
day, if not all day with only a few hours of Sun making it
through. If the fog never breaks, expect temperatures to be much
cooler than what is in the current forecast. If fog does break,
expect a quick return after sunset for most valleys. Aside from
fog and low clouds, conditions will remain dry through Saturday.

Temperatures will be relatively warmer Saturday night, but frost
conditions could be possible again for the same locations as
tonight. Another round of fog is expected for valleys Saturday

Sunday will be another transition day back to a more active
pattern. The day will start off much like Saturday morning with
cool temperatures and valley fog. However, it's less likely for
fog to linger through the day as another strong front approaches
the area Sunday. High level clouds will begin to stream in ahead
of this front and winds will also increase Sunday afternoon.

Strong, gusty winds are expected in the shasta valley, along
coastal headlands and east of the cascades late Sunday afternoon
into Monday morning. Moderate to heavy rain is expected to start
Sunday afternoon and continue into Monday morning. Snow levels
will rise to around 8,000 feet with the peak of the rainfall, so
we aren't expecting any major winter impacts at the current time.

Snow levels will stay around 8,000 feet Monday as the front begins
to lift back north. Br-y
long term... Tuesday through Friday... Models are showing the area
located between a trough offshore and an upper ridge inland to
east with a stream of southwest moisture directed at the coast next
week. A moist frontal system is forecast to move around the trough
and northward along the oregon coast on Tuesday. This is expected to
bring a warm front into the area on Tuesday which will allow rain to
develop across the area. Snow levels are projected to be elevated,
rising to around 9000 ft elevation or higher on Tuesday. Confidence
is low to moderate on the exact rainfall totals due to the run to
run variability in the models. Current models have trended lower on
rainfall for Tuesday. Still expect a potential for moderate to
locally heavy rain along the coast and inland over the coastal
mountains and western siskiyou county with mainly light to moderate
rain expected elsewhere.

A cold front is forecast to move into the coast and stall near the
coast on Wednesday and into Thursday. This front will likely bring
rain to the coast and to areas just inland, such as the coastal
mountains, western siskiyou county and portions of the umpqua.

Elsewhere expect a chance to slight chance for rain, with rainfall
depending on the exact position of the front and any disturbances
moving over the area ahead of this front. In general expect higher
chances from the cascades west with weaker chances east of the
cascades. Snow levels are likely to remain elevated, above 8000 feet
elevation Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures are expected to
remain generally mild and above normal Tuesday through Thursday with
this warmer air masses in place.

Models show increased variability in the forecast weather pattern
Thursday night into Friday, with the GFS indicating a potential for
remnants of the front to linger near the coast while weak ridging
builds into the area. The ECMWF shows a stronger ridge and a brief
period of dry weather across the area Thursday night into Friday
morning. By late Friday there is broad agreement that another system
will track up from the southwest and into the area bringing
additional wet weather. -cc

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am pst Saturday for orz021>023.

Freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am pst Saturday for orz023.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Gale watch from Sunday morning through late
Sunday night for pzz350-356-370-376.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 15 mi37 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 48°F 53°F5 ft1024.9 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR2 mi31 minN 010.00 miFair39°F37°F93%1026.8 hPa
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA18 mi31 minE 410.00 miFair41°F36°F82%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalm--3333CalmW3W4NW3CalmN3CalmCalmCalm3NE3CalmCalm
1 day ago55E3E3SE3SE5S4SE10S8S1046Calm56CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalm
2 days agoSE8SE10

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Sat -- 03:42 AM PST     New Moon
Sat -- 04:56 AM PST     2.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:09 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:11 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:51 AM PST     7.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:53 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:32 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:46 PM PST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:42 AM PST     New Moon
Sat -- 04:52 AM PST     2.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:08 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:10 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:50 AM PST     7.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:53 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:32 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:42 PM PST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.