Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 12:58 PM   Moonset 2:00 AM

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PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013.thunderstorms over the waters - . Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible - .keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat - .lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414

PZZ300 850 Am Pdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - A thermal trough pattern, while weaker today, will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas through tonight north of cape blanco and through Friday morning south of the cape. The thermal trough will restrengthen with possible gales south of cape blanco again Friday afternoon and evening. North winds and steep seas will likely persist this weekend.

FXUS66 KMFR 161606 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 906 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024

DISCUSSION
Satellite imagery shows marine stratus made it as far inland as the Camas Valley this morning. The thermal trough, while still present, weakened enough to allow for a coastal eddy (within about 2-4 NM from shore) from Brookings southward. This resulted in a "fickle finger" of stratus/fog there this morning, bringing an end to their mini heat wave. The clouds should break up in most areas this afternoon, though could hold on in some areas along the coast north of Cape Blanco. The remainder of the area will be mostly sunny. Compared to yesterday, maximum temperatures west of the Cascades will be near or even a little lower today. Brookings could still reach well into the 70s this afternoon, but it will be tricky given the stratus/fog this morning. East of the Cascades and in NE California, today will likely be the warmest day with high temps about 2-5F higher than yesterday.

A cold front will move through tonight into Friday. A deeper marine push will bring some clouds farther inland tonight into Friday morning with some light rain showers or drizzle possible (20% chance); best chance is north and west of the Umpqua Divide.
Clouds bank up against the Cascades/Siskiyous early Friday morning with some even here for a while in the Rogue Valley, but these should break up late Friday morning/afternoon. The frontal passage should lead to about 5-15F of cooling on Friday (biggest temp drop on the East Side). However, coastal areas will have highs similar to today. -Spilde



AVIATION
16/12Z TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore, IFR ceilings will persist for most of the TAF period, from Cape Blanco north. The TAF at North Bend shows ceilings improving for a 2 hour period late this afternoon and early evening, but confidence on the duration is low and it could last beyond 2z. Meanwhile VFR ceilings are expected to be the predominate condition south of Cape Blanco.

Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with gusty afternoon and early evening breezes. -Petrucelli



MARINE
Updated 830 AM Thursday, May 16, 2024...A thermal trough pattern, while weaker today, will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas through tonight north of Cape Blanco and through Friday morning south of the cape. The thermal trough will restrengthen with possible gales south of Cape Blanco again Friday afternoon and evening. North winds and steep seas will likely persist this weekend. -Spilde



PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 500 AM PDT Thu May 16 2024/

Updated Aviation Discussion.

SHORT TERM...A high pressure ridge will remain in place today with offshore northeasterly winds. This will bring a pattern of continued above normal temperatures, dry weather and afternoon breezy to gusty north to northeast winds (especially along the coast and for areas west of the Cascades).

High temperatures today will be similar across inland areas as compared to yesterday. Along the coast, temperatures are forecast to be lower in the Brookings area, compared to yesterday, but still above normal. Clear skies are expected, except for along the coast from Cape Blanco north and over the coastal waters where a deepening marine layer is resulting in low clouds and fog.

Then, tonight into Friday, a weak trough will move inland just north of the area. This will result in a chance (15-20%) for light rain in Coos and Douglas counties overnight/Friday morning. Models indicate that any rainfall that develops will be light (under 0.10 inch) with the best chances for light rain over the upslope areas in the coastal mountains and Cascade foothills in Coos and Douglas counties. Otherwise, expect slightly cooler temperatures (closer to seasonal averages) across the area on Friday. As the trough shifts eastward late Friday, breezy to gusty afternoon northerly winds are expected to develop.

AVIATION
16/12Z TAFs
Along the coast and just offshore, IFR ceilings will persist for most of the TAF period, from Cape Blanco north. The TAF at North Bend shows ceilings improving for a 2 hour period late this afternoon and early evening, but confidence on the duration is low and it could last beyond 2z. Meanwhile VFR ceilings are expected to be the predominate condition south of Cape Blanco.

Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with gusty afternoon and early evening breezes. -Petrucelli

MARINE
Updated 230 AM Thursday, May 16, 2024
The thermal trough pattern weakens some today and gales will ease. Despite this subtle improvement, gusty winds and steep to very steep and hazardous seas will persist through the end of the week. Conditions may improve overall over the weekend as the upper level pattern transitions, though expect conditions to remain hazardous to small craft for areas south of Cape Blanco as northerly winds continue.
/BR-y/Petrucelli

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 203 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024/

LONG TERM
Friday 5/17 through Wednesday 5/22
The long term forecast begins with a slight pattern change. While southern Oregon and northern California will be mostly under the influence of a ridge of high pressure for most of the weekend, a trough of low pressure will dig southward over eastern Washington and Idaho. While this will not bring rainfall to our area, this could cause breezy to gusty northwesterly winds--particularly in the afternoons.
Additional troughs will dig southward following this trajectory, and maybe a bit more southward over the weekend helping to keep us somewhat cooler with additional afternoon breezes and some fair weather cumulus clouds.

By Monday, an additional trough pushes southward, but this front will be closer to central Oregon. This could bring additional breezy winds, but also our first shower chances--particularly along the higher terrain of the Cascades and coast range in Douglas and Coos County. Rainfall will be relatively light, and thunderstorms are generally not expected (less than a 10 percent chance).
Temperatures, however, will be several degrees cooler than over the weekend.

Then on Tuesday into Wednesday, another low spins southward, this time over western Oregon and could bring additional showers and thunderstorms (chances are just less than 15 percent at this time).
Winds will continue to be relatively breezy and temperatures will remain slightly below normal through mid-week. Since the weather will be based on a low pressure system that has not formed yet, the confidence is relatively low--especially since the impacts will be tied to the location of the low. Used the National Blend of Models and am forecasting the most likely scenario at this point since clusters are in general agreement over the large scale and differ over some of the smaller features. Keep an eye to the forecast for updates. -Schaaf

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

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Brookings
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Thu -- 01:36 AM PDT     2.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:00 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:54 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:49 AM PDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:35 PM PDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:57 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:28 PM PDT     5.47 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:32 PM PDT     Sunset
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Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon, Tide feet

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