Sunrise 5:27 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 10:07 AM   Moonset 1:06 AM

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LMZ080 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 314 Pm Cdt Mon May 13 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Tonight - North winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late this evening, then becoming northeast after midnight diminishing to 15 to 25 kt late. Rain showers likely with slight chance of Thunderstorms this evening, then chance of rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Tuesday - Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north to 30 kt. Chance of rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Tuesday night - North winds to 30 kt becoming northeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Wednesday - North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Wednesday night - North winds 10 to 20 kt veering to east 5 to 10 kt overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Friday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt veering to northeast. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 132324 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 724 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms this evening, decreasing in coverage overnight.

- Showers and storms dot the area Tuesday. Drying out Wednesday.

- Remaining mild through the week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 259 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The latest high-resolution guidance has lead me to reduce POPs and rainfall forecast amounts for the next 24 hours. As hinted in this space over the weekend, poleward moisture transport is poor as of this writing. This is in part due to ongoing convection across the south, but moreso a notable dryslot is evident on mid-and-low-level water vapor this afternoon. Despite this, a few thunderstorms are starting to emerge over Illinois and far western Indiana associated with an 850mb thermal gradient and a vorticity maximum on the nose of the dryslot. Instability and lapse rates will be sufficient to support scattered thunderstorms for the remainder of the afternoon.
Inverted-V soundings depict a non-zero damaging wind gust threat.
However, a lack of wind shear will limit the longevity and organization of thunderstorms.

Overnight, showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to decrease in coverage. This is likely due to the loss of daytime heating and the aformentioned thermal gradient having moved north. In fact, there should be several dry hours overnight. However, a secondary vort maximum lifts in through central Indiana prior to sunrise, renewing the coverage of showers and storms. This is a period that will need to be monitored by the evening shift for further adjustment.

Through Tuesday, moisture advection improves from the Atlantic, resulting in numerous showers and some thunderstorms during the day.
This activity tapers off late Tuesday night as the low crosses the Appalachians. Forecast rainfall tonight through Tuesday is now closer to 0.50" than the previously advertised 1".

Gradually drying out after sunrise Wednesday, but an active upper- air pattern remains such that showers and storms return later Thursday and linger at times into Saturday. Forecast guidance is rather noisy Thursday and beyond, resulting in only minor adjustments to the in-house blend of POPs. A strengthening ridge across the south hits at 80-degree temperatures this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 724 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

A broad and slow-moving midlevel trough will continue to support scattered showers through much of the period. Instability and associated thunderstorms are mostly diurnally-driven and expect a continued downward trend through the late evening. Have therefore removed thunder from KSBN this evening but there is still a nonzero chance for an isolated storm. Models have trended much drier with low level profiles overnight and suggest MVFR ceilings at worst late tonight into Tuesday. Additional storms are possible Tuesday afternoon (particularly at KFWA) but confidence in timing and coverage is too low to mention this far out.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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Northern Indiana, IN,