Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Canaan, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:20PM Sunday May 28, 2017 6:37 AM EDT (10:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:21AMMoonset 11:20PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 406 Am Edt Sun May 28 2017
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain after midnight.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning...then 1 ft or less. Showers and chance of tstms.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NW winds around 5 kt...becoming w. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 406 Am Edt Sun May 28 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will gradually retreat to the northeast as a series of weak lows pass south of long island through Tuesday. A weak cold front will approach from the west Tuesday night...and then move across on Wednesday. High pressure will then build in to the south and southwest through Thursday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Canaan, CT
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location: 42.06, -73.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 281031
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
631 am edt Sun may 28 2017

Synopsis
The holiday weekend is well underway as today will feature a mix
of clouds and sunshine. Temperatures will be milder, however,
there is a slight chance of a shower later this afternoon. The
chance for showers and some thunderstorms increase tonight
through Monday morning as a strong disturbances crosses the
region. Conditions improve a bit later Monday afternoon and
evening. Several quick moving systems will keep precipitation
chances in the forecast through mid-week with temperatures near
normal.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 625 am edt... Stratus deck lingers, albeit a bit smaller
in real estate, across the southeast 2 3rds of the cwa.

Meanwhile ci cs continues to spill into the region from upstream
convection. This has resulted in little temperature change
where clouds were more prevalent so did refresh the hourly
values with trends. 06z gfs-mos values look okay and close to
forecast values at this time (perhaps a touch cooler). Regarding
chances for showers, nam3km and hrrr continue to support
terrain based showers which then migrate into the valley
locations later this afternoon. So no changes to the pop wx
grids at this time.

Prev disc... Experimental goes-16 depicts rather nicely the
stratus across 2 3rds of the CWA this early Sunday morning.

However, breaks were occurring around the edges but being
replaced by convective debris from upstream convection with
ci cs. So today will feature a diversity of cloud coverage as
even partial sunshine will assist with warming the boundary
layer. The hi-res nam3km and hrrr suggest with the daytime
heating, some initial terrain based showers develop once the
short wave ridge slides east of the region by early afternoon.

While difficult to ascertain any surface triggers, perhaps some
differential heating boundaries and weak instability might be
enough for isolated showers to develop as we will expand the
slight chance from the higher terrain into the valley locations
through the afternoon hours. Highs today should average between
70-75f for valley locations to 60s elsewhere. Marine influence
air may filter into the southern catskills, mid-hudson valley
and NW ct where clouds and slightly cooler temperatures may
reside.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
As seen in the experimental goes-16 imagery, moisture transport
continues to advect northward across the ohio valley into the
central great lakes region. This moisture entrainment ahead of a
short wave racing across the dakotas and into the upper
mississippi river valley will aid in the development of showers
and thunderstorms upstream this evening. Model consensus
suggests this will evolve into a complex of showers and embedded
thunderstorms as low level jet magnitudes increase to at or
above 40kts overnight along and ahead of this impending complex.

Timing and placement points toward our western areas arriving
by 06z Monday then across the heart of the CWA around 12-18z
Monday. We will raise pops at or above categorical thresholds
per coordination with neighboring forecast offices. Overnight
lows will be milder with mainly 50s and highs on memorial day
rather cool with mainly 60s and upper 50s for the higher
terrain. The complex of showers storms are expected to track
east of the region by mid afternoon, however, ample moisture
lingers along with mid level jet core arriving for the continued
threat for additional convection.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Much of the extended period will be dominated by a longwave trough
in place over the northeastern united states, as a slow moving
closed off upper level low moves from the upper great lakes towards
eastern canada through the week.

In the wake of the warm air advection isentropic lift from Monday,
there looks to be a general lull in the precip for Monday night,
with just a few lingering rain showers, mainly for northern and
eastern areas. Have generally gone with slight to low chc pops for
Monday night, although it should remain fairly cloudy thanks to
plenty of lingering low level moisture with lows in the 50s.

Ahead of the approaching upper level, broad southwest flow will be
in place in the low to mid levels on Tuesday. A strong jet streak
of around 125 kts at 250 hpa will be approaching the area on
Tuesday, afternoon as some upper level energy slides around the base
of the upper level trough. 0-6 km bulk shear looks impressive, with
around 50+ knots of shear expected over the region. Instability may
be limited due to plenty of clouds around, but any breaks of Sun may
allow for up to 1000 j kg of cape. Although dewpoints will only be
in the 50s, considering the strong upper level forcing nearby, we
will need to monitor for the potential for some strong to severe
thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening. Spc
currently has the region in a "marginal" outlook for severe
thunderstorms at this time in their day 3 outlook. With a few
breaks of sun, highs should reach into the 70s for valley areas.

Although the best jet dynamics shift away from the area, some
additional rain showers will be possible on both Wednesday and
Thursday, mainly during the time of best diurnal heating, as the
somewhat cooler temps aloft combine with daytime heating and the
cyclonic flow in place to allow for instability-based showers. Temps
will generally be in the low to mid 70s for highs on Wednesday, with
mainly upper 60s to low 70s for Thursday. Sky cover looks to vary
between partly to mostly cloudy.

The flow aloft should briefly flatten out on Thursday night into
early Friday as the original upper level low weakens, however,
another closed off low will rotating out of central canada through
the broad longwave trough towards the great lakes for the weekend.

While late Thursday night into Friday morning looks mainly dry, some
additional showers will return for Friday afternoon into the
weekend. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal
normals.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
Rather extensive mid level cloud deck withVFR conditions across
the TAF sites this early Sunday morning. There are some breaks
occurring near kgfl where some ifr conditions with respect to
fog are possible early this morning. Winds to remain light and
variable through the morning hours.

Skies should improve to allVFR through the daylight hours
Sunday as additional high and mid level clouds increase. Winds
will become southerly around 5-10 kt Sunday afternoon.

The chance for showers this afternoon appear too limited to
include mention in the taf. However, those pops increase tonight
as upstream wave approaches. We will include prob30 groups and
watch trends closely for additional future adjustments.

Outlook...

Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Tuesday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Wednesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Thursday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Fire weather
Seasonably mild temps today with rh values mainly bottoming out
in the 50s with light to moderate southeasterly winds. Isolated
showers are possible this afternoon. An approaching system will
bring rainfall to the region tonight into memorial day, along
with cooler temperatures. Showers and thunderstorms will be
likely again on Tuesday with seasonable temperatures.

Hydrology
Isolated showers are possible later today but chances for more
widespread rainfall arrives tonight. An approaching system will
bring showers and a few thunderstorms tonight into memorial
day, with total QPF ranging from 0.25-0.75" expected. Additional
periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday and
Wednesday, with basin average QPF likely remaining less than an
additional half inch.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Equipment
The ASOS at the floyd bennett memorial airport in glens falls,
ny and pittsfield airport, ma continue to experience outages
with hourly metars occasionally missing. This will continue
until communications are fully restored.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Bgm
near term... Bgm
short term... Bgm
long term... Frugis
aviation... Frugis bgm
fire weather... Bgm thompson
hydrology... Bgm thompson
equipment... Aly staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 32 mi68 min 61°F 1012 hPa58°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 58 mi50 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 58°F 60°F1013.7 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 62 mi56 min ESE 1 G 1.9 58°F 1012.7 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE10
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N8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from PSF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9
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4E5NE6CalmE4W4SW3W3W5W10W5W5W8W8W9W9NW10
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1 day agoSE7SE7SE8SE9E45E4E6E6E9
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE75S8SE7E86
G15
56SE6E4SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Hudson
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sun -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:25 AM EDT     5.37 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:27 PM EDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:14 PM EDT     4.51 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.30.52.13.74.85.35.34.73.72.31.10.1-0.6-0.50.523.34.14.54.43.72.51.40.5

Tide / Current Tables for Catskill, Hudson River, New York
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Catskill
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:11 AM EDT     5.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:13 PM EDT     -0.75 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:02 PM EDT     4.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.30.72.43.94.85.25.14.43.21.90.7-0.2-0.7-0.40.82.23.34.14.34.13.32.21.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.