Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Canaan, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:25PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 6:47 AM EST (11:47 UTC) Moonrise 2:52PMMoonset 3:22AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 635 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
.gale warning in effect until noon est today...
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to around 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Intermittent showers, mainly in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ300 635 Am Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure slowly builds in across the area into Wednesday before giving way to a storm system that will impact the waters Thursday night into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Canaan, CT
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location: 42.06, -73.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 181118
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
618 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis
Clouds will break for sunshine today with breezy and
cold conditions. Although the wind will diminish, it will be very
cold tonight with a mainly clear sky. High pressure will continue
to allow for dry weather Wednesday into Thursday with milder
temperatures, before a storm system brings a widespread rain to the
region for Thursday night into Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 618 am est... Upper level shortwave trough continue to
push eastward, as is now located over eastern new england and
into atlantic canada. Our region continue to be dominated by
cold northwest flow on the backside of this departing upper
level disturbance, as 850 hpa temps have dropped down to -15
degrees c thanks to strong cold advection.

Cyclonic flow, picking up a little bit of lake moisture, has
allowed for some lake-enhanced and upslope snow showers and
flurries this morning, especially across the western
adirondacks, eastern catskills and southern greens. The heavier
lake activity is located over central ny, where the lake fetch
is better with this northwesterly wind direction. As the upper
level trough departs, these lake enhanced and upslope snow
showers will end this morning and clouds will start to break for
some sunshine. Outside of a fresh dusting across the highest
terrain, little to no additional accumulation is expected this
morning.

It will continue to breezy through the morning hours, as good
mixing and a decent pressure gradient continues to allow for
northwest winds gusting over 25 mph at times. These winds will
start to diminish this afternoon, as surface pressure starts
nosing into the area from the midwest.

With the cold temps aloft, MAX temps today will be well below
normal and much colder than recent days. Highs will only reach
into the 20s for most spots (teens in the adirondacks and
southern greens), and the wind will make it feel even colder.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday
Dry and quiet weather is expected through the entire short term
period.

High pressure will move from the ohio valley towards the mid
atlantic states for tonight into Wednesday. This will allow for
mainly clear skies and light to calm winds. Good radiational
cooling will allow temps to fall into the teens for much of the
area for tonight (single digits in the adirondacks). Temps will
be a little milder for Wednesday with 30s for most areas with a
few more clouds around.

As the high pressure area departs off the eastern seaboard, our
region will get into a southwest flow, both at the surface and
aloft. Building heights and warming temps aloft will allow
temperatures to become much milder. Temps will be in the 20s for
wed night and reach mid 30s to mid 40s for Thursday. Although
Thursday will start off with some sun, clouds will be increasing
through the day, as a large storm system over the mississippi
valley and deep south starts to move towards the area.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Upper level ridge axis along with departing surface high will result
in likely the only dry period in this long term portion of the
forecast, early Thursday evening. Under an increase in cloud
coverage through the night, temperatures will initially be
seasonable cool, yet, moderation is expected as warm advection gets
underway toward morning in advance of our storm system.

Unsettled weather is then expected to arrive overnight Thursday into
Friday , as the upper low pushes eastward across the gulf coast
states, with the large amplitude trough results in considerable
strengthening of s-se flow aloft along the east coast and i95
corridor into our region. Strong diffluence aloft and low-level
moisture flux will likely result in widespread precipitation to
develop and affect the entire region. Surface temps may start out
around or slightly below freezing in some of the typical sheltered
higher elevation valleys, which could result in a brief period of
freezing rain and sleet at the onset. However, the bulk of the
precip type for most of the area should be plain rain as temps warm
through the 30s by sunrise Friday.

Two main concerns remain with the system are the potential for heavy
rainfall and also strong s-se winds. The time frame for moderate to
heavy rainfall looks to be late Thursday night through much of
Friday (especially in the morning), as the closed low tracks
northward along or just west of the southern central appalachians
and the system's occluded front only gradually pushes eastward
during this time. The 00z GEFS is forecast a surge of at least +3 to
+4 stdev moisture flux at 850 mb (+6 approaching litchfield county),
with pwat of around +3 to +4 stdev and easterly southerly wind
anomalies of between +3 to +5 stdev which is an anomaly increase
from the previous run. This points to not only a heavy rain threat,
but also potential for flooding given temps expected to warm into
the 40s to perhaps 50s in some areas, with QPF and snowmelt possibly
both contributing factors to runoff. This will have to be watched,
as some guidance is suggesting 1-2 inches of rainfall with this
system. Mmefs from the GEFS and naefs point toward several points
potentially getting to flood stage. The strong s-se winds may
require wind headline for favored areas that typically mix down
strong wind in this type of flow regime, such as the taconics,
southern greens and berkshires.

The upper low is forecast to move through Friday night into
Saturday, with a trailing cold front associated with the surface low
tracking NE across southern quebec. Gfs ECMWF are in fairly good
agreement with regards to the synoptic scale features, but differ
with smaller scale details, including QPF (deformation placement).

Once the cold front moves through Saturday morning, ptype will
transition to snow showers in the mountains and rain snow showers in
valleys based on diurnal trends Saturday through Sunday. Best
chances for additional precip will be across the higher terrain of
the western adirondacks and southern greens. Within the cold
advection, lake ontario may become increasingly enhanced with lake
effect snow bands. Although, difficult to say where and how far
inland these bands will get (climatological favored area of the
western dacks, western mohawk valley and schoharie valley).

Zonal flow within a broad upper level trough is expected to set up
for Sunday night into Monday, with possible short wave passage on
Monday may result in some light snow or snow showers. Additional
lake response is possible as well with marginal instability
parameters.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr conditions should prevail through this TAF forecast cycle.

Satellite imagery and surface observations reveal TAF locations are
mostly in the partly cloudy to clear skies. Lake effect snow and
lower clouds remain to the west-southwest with another batch of
upslope stratus into the southern greens. So just diurnally driven
vfr clouds and good visibilities.

The winds will be northwest around 13-18 kt with gusts of 20-30 kt
through much of the next 12 hours, winds will relax toward sunset
at speeds less than 10kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: high operational impact. Definite ra.

Friday: high operational impact. Ocnl ra.

Friday night: high operational impact. Likely shra.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Breezy chance of shra.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Hydrology
Dry weather is expected through Thursday. Temperatures will be
very cold for today and tonight, allowing ice to form and
strengthen on area rivers, lakes and ponds. Temperatures will
start to moderate for Wednesday and Thursday, although overnight
lows on Wednesday night will continue to be fairly cold.

A storm system will bring a widespread steady, soaking rainfall
to the region for Thursday night through Friday. There is still
some uncertainty regarding exact amounts, but current guidance
forecasts show an inch or more of rain is possible, with some
enhanced higher amounts across the mountains. This would allow
for at least within bank rises on rivers and streams,
especially considering there may be some snow melt due to mild
temperatures, and strong southeast winds as well. It's still
unclear if this runoff would be enough to cause any flooding, as
it will ultimately depend on just how much rainfall occurs. The
latest mmefs guidance shows about a 10% chance of a few river
points reaching flood stage based on GEFS guidance.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Frugis
near term... Frugis
short term... Frugis
long term... Bgm jpv
aviation... Bgm
hydrology... Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 32 mi78 min 26°F 1014 hPa14°F
TKPN6 33 mi54 min N 11 G 16 26°F 35°F14°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 58 mi48 min NNW 18 G 24 27°F 45°F1011.8 hPa (+3.7)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 62 mi54 min NNW 8 G 14 28°F 44°F1011.7 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA26 mi54 minWNW 13 G 3110.00 miPartly Cloudy17°F7°F64%1011.7 hPa

Wind History from PSF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE5E6NE10
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NE8NE10NE9NE8NE12NE7NE8NE6NE7NE4NE5NE5CalmN3NW3NE3W3NW4NW4NW4Calm
2 days agoW4W4NW4W11
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W7SW5W5W5W6N4N5NE5CalmE4NE7NE6NE4NE7NE3NE9E6NE56NE9
G15

Tide / Current Tables for Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Hudson
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:24 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:25 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:10 AM EST     3.79 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:06 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:37 PM EST     3.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.51.710.60.30.41.12.23.13.63.83.73.32.51.71.10.70.40.71.62.53.13.4

Tide / Current Tables for Catskill, Hudson River, New York
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Catskill
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:24 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:11 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:53 AM EST     3.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:52 PM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:20 PM EST     3.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.21.50.90.50.30.51.32.43.13.53.63.42.92.21.510.60.40.91.82.63.13.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.