Wednesday, September20, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Pistol River, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 7:16PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 9:33 AM PDT (16:33 UTC) Moonrise 6:35AMMoonset 7:04PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ376 Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca From 10 To 60 Nm- 901 Am Pdt Wed Sep 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening...
Today..W wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. SWell nw 9 to 10 ft at 11 seconds. Chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Tonight..NW wind 5 to 15 kt...veering to N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft. SWell nw 9 to 10 ft at 10 seconds. Showers likely in the evening. Slight chance of tstms through the night.
Thu..NW wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to sw in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 ft in the afternoon. SWell nw 7 to 8 ft at 10 seconds. Chance of showers.
Thu night..NW wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to N after midnight. Wind waves 3 ft in the evening...becoming 2 ft or less. SWell nw 8 to 9 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Fri..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. SWell nw 7 to 8 ft.
Fri night..N wind 15 to 20 kt northern portion and N 20 to 25 kt southern portion. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. NW swell 6 to 7 ft.
Sat..N wind 25 kt. Wind waves 6 ft. SWell nw 6 ft.
Sun..N wind 25 kt. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft...building to 8 ft. NW swell 5 ft...becoming W 2 ft.
PZZ300 901 Am Pdt Wed Sep 20 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. Steep northwest swell will continue to result in seas hazardous to small craft through tonight. Other than steep swell, there remains a slight chance for Thunderstorms over the waters through Wednesday night. Weak low pressure moving through the area Thursday will be followed by increasing northerlies Friday through the weekend as a weak thermal trough begins to build.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pistol River, OR
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location: 42.07, -126.51     debug

Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 201613
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
913 am pdt Wed sep 20 2017

Discussion Current forecasts are on track, no updates are
needed. A cold front is crossing the forecast area this morning.

Cold air pool with the trough will follow the front. The main
instability with the cold pool will bring a threat of
thunderstorms to the coastal waters, the immediate coast and the
umpqua basin. It doesn't appear that the instability will affect
the rogue basin, cascades, northern california or areas east of
the cascades. As the main trough digs south, the instability
remains off shore.

The flash flood watch for the burn scar areas of the chetco bar
fire and along highway 138 will expire at 18z (11 am) and I will
let it go. The expected rainfall for later today and onward should
not cause concern. That said, convective cells will need to be
watched to make sure one doesn't hit a scar with an excessive
rainfall rate. Jbl

Aviation 20 12z TAF cycle... From the coast to the cascades, a mix
of MVFRVFR ceilings with frequent showers are expected through
Wednesday evening with terrain obscured. A slight chance of
thunderstorms will develop this morning over the coastal waters with
this instability spreading across the coast to areas north of the
siskiyous during the afternoon and evening. Snow levels around 8000
ft will fall to around 5500 ft during the morning. East of the
cascades,VFR will dominate but local MVFR and numerous showers are
expected. Low level winds will be gusty and strong during the
morning and afternoon. Btl dw

Marine Updated 255 am pdt Wednesday, 20 september 2017...

unseasonably cold low pressure along the washington coast this
morning will move southward into, and then through, the area today
through tonight. This will bring showers and a possibility of
thunderstorms this morning, through the day today, and into tonight.

Meanwhile, steep northwest swell will continue to result in seas
hazardous to small craft through tonight. Weak low pressure moving
through the area Thursday will be followed by increasing northerlies
Friday through the weekend.

Fire weather Updated 700 am pdt wed, 20 september 2017... .

Low pressure along the washington coast this morning will move
southward today bringing gusty winds, showers, isolated
thunderstorms, and falling snow levels through tonight. Breezy to
windy conditions will affect most of the forecast area to day, with
strongest winds east of the cascades and in the highest terrain. Any
weakened trees from wildfire will be susceptible to falling due to
the strong winds in the highest terrain, especially where some wet
snowfall weighs them down. Snowfall will impact primarily areas
above 6000 ft with several inches accumulation possible. High
temperatures will be around 20 degrees below normal today and
Thursday. Wetting precipitation is expected from the oregon cascades
and marble mountains westward. Snow levels near 8,000 feet this
morning will lower to around 5,500 feet tonight, and lows tonight
could be the lowest of the season, thus far, for many locations.

Moderate to occasionally heavy rain could still cause debris flows
and or wash out rural forest roads today if thunderstorms increase
rainfall rates enough. While this is unlikely, it is still possible
that this could occur, so the burn scar flash flood watch remains in
effect for today.

A long duration warming and drying trend is then expected Friday
through next weekend, with temperatures likely above normal again
early next week. We are expecting broad northeast to east flow over
the weekend, and afternoon humidity will likely lower into the 20s
and 30s across the forecast area. Model trends are suggesting a dry
and warm period that lasts through next weekend. Additionally, the
climate prediction center's 8-14 day outlook is calling for enhanced
chances for above normal temperatures and below normal
precipitation. In short, this wet and cool period will likely be
followed by a steady and long-duration warming and drying trend.

Btl nsk

Prev discussion issued 735 am pdt Wed sep 20 2017
short term... A cold upper trough will remain over the region
today into Thursday. A frontal system will move inland today as a
shortwave moves around the upper trough and into the area. This
pattern will bring rain with lowering snow levels and a mix of
rain snow developing for locations above 5000 feet elevation.

Much cooler than normal temperatures, gusty winds in the
mountains, and isolated thunderstorms are also expected today.

Then the upper trough will deepen to the south but remain over
the region tonight and Thursday. Another disturbance is forecast
to move down the backside of the trough into the area from the
north-northwest Thursday. This next disturbance is weaker though
and expect shower activity to be mainly concentrated near the
coast and coastal mountains and into the umpqua valley and
southern oregon cascades with mainly isolated to scattered
showers elsewhere. The upper trough will gradually shift eastward
Thursday night into Friday with decreasing showers over the area.

Today, expect shower activity to be greatest along the coast,
into the umpqua and over the southern oregon cascades. Moderate
rain is expected at times along the coastal mountains and into
the cascade foothills. Also expect isolated thunderstorms to
affect coos and curry county with a slight chance for
thunderstorms inland as well across northern portions of the
area, including northwest josephine, douglas, northern klamath
and northern lake counties. Thunderstorms will bring a chance for
moderate to locally heavy rain. The main concern with any heavy
rain will be the risk for flash floods or landslides over area
burn scars, including the chetco and umpqua north complex near
highway 148. A flash flood watch remains in effect for these two
wildfire burn areas. Please see the ffamfr for details.

Snow levels are currently high, around 7000 feet or higher, and
will lower to around 5000 to 6000 feet late this morning into this
afternoon across southwest oregon. Note, across northern
california and for areas in lake county, expect snow levels to
remain above 6000 feet into this evening, lowering to around 5000
feet tonight as showers diminish. The lowering snow levels during
the day today combined with numerous showers over western areas,
will bring snow or a rain snow mix to the higher elevations in the
southern oregon cascades and siskiyous today. With strong moist
onshore flow, expect areas of moderate precipitation in the
cascades. Snowfall amounts of around 1 to 4 inches are expected
above 5000 feet in the southern oregon cascades through tonight
with higher amounts of 3 to 6 inches above 6000 feet elevation,
especially in the crater lake area. Shower activity will gradually
decrease late this evening into tonight but expect some continued
light showers over the southern oregon cascades through the

Gusty winds will continue to impact the higher terrain as a
strong mid level jet moves across the region. West winds with
gusts of around 30 to 50 mph are possible this morning into this
afternoon especially over the cascades and mountains east of the
cascades. A wind advisory has been issued for eastern mountains
in the lake county and eastern modoc county where gusts of 45 to
55 mph are expected today. These winds will peak this morning into
early this afternoon then gradually lower late in the afternoon.

Please see the npwmfr for details.

Behind this frontal system, expect winds to lower and showers to
decrease in coverage and intensity tonight with continued light
shower activity becoming focused on the southern oregon cascades.

A very cold air mass aloft will allow freezing or near freezing
temperatures to develop across areas east of the cascades in
klamath, lake, eastern siskiyou and modoc counties tonight and
early Thursday morning. Freeze warnings and frost advisories are
in effect for these areas. Please see the npwmfr for details.

Then on Thursday, models continue to show a weak low moving down
the coast and bringing showers to the area, with activity mainly
focused over the coastal waters, along the coast and into the
umpqua and southern oregon cascades. Elsewhere expect a slight
chance to chance for showers on Thursday. Confidence on the amount
and extent of showers is only moderate since models have shown
some variability on the strength and track of this system.

Long term discussion... Issued 529 pm pdt Tue sep 19 2017
Friday will be a transition day as the upper trough shifts east
with a dry northerly flow. Still could not rule out a few showers
along the northern cascades and eastside, but they should be the
exception. Dry and warmer weather returns next weekend as an upper
ridge builds over the eastern pacific. At the surface, a thermal
trough will develop with increasing offshore flow in southeast
oregon and western siksyou county. There is increasing confidence we
could remain in a prolonged period dry and warmer weather for most
of next week and beyond, but this is not a slam dunk. -petrucelli

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am pdt Thursday for orz029>031.

Wind advisory until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for orz030-031.

Flash flood watch until 11 am pdt this morning for orz022-024.

Flash flood watch until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for orz025.

Ca... Wind advisory until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for caz085.

Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am pdt Thursday for caz084-085.

Freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am pdt Thursday for caz084-085.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 5 am pdt Thursday
for pzz350-356-370.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt Sunday for pzz376.

Jbl jbl jbl

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR118 mi37 minW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F54°F93%1014 hPa

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE3S5SE6S6S7SE6S7SE6SE8S10SE12
1 day agoCalmS3W3CalmSW4CalmS53S3SE5SE3SE4SE4NE3SE4S5S5S5S53S33SE4SE3
2 days agoSE6S7S5SE5S7S5SE4SE44SE4SE3CalmE3CalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmSE4CalmE3Calm3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Eureka, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.