Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pistol River, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 5:58PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 10:04 AM PST (18:04 UTC) Moonrise 7:42PMMoonset 8:13AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ376 Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca From 10 To 60 Nm- 829 Am Pst Wed Feb 20 2019
.hazardous seas warning in effect through Thursday morning...
Today..NW wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 7 to 9 ft. N swell 6 to 7 ft at 9 seconds...building to nw 9 ft at 10 seconds in the afternoon. Showers.
Tonight..N wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 7 to 10 ft. NW swell 11 to 12 ft at 11 seconds. Showers.
Thu..N wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft. NW swell 11 to 12 ft at 12 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Thu night..N wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft. NW swell 10 to 11 ft.
Fri..N wind 10 kt...backing to nw in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 ft in the morning...becoming 2 ft or less. NW swell 8 to 9 ft... Subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain.
Fri night..W wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 ft after midnight. NW swell 5 to 6 ft. Chance of rain.
Sat..W wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 5 ft... Building to 10 ft.
Sun..W wind 10 kt...veering to nw after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 8 to 9 ft.
PZZ300 829 Am Pst Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A front moved through the area last night. This will bring very steep and hazardous seas for most areas. Winds and seas will begin to subside Thursday and more so Friday as high pressure moves through. A weak front will move in Friday afternoon into Friday night. Northwest swell will build behind it Saturday into Saturday night, and seas may become steep.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pistol River, OR
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location: 42.07, -126.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 201713
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
913 am pst Wed feb 20 2019

Short term The main band of precipitation has shifted east.

Overnight, accumulating snow was observed down to 1500 feet
elevation in douglas and josephine counties, including across
lower passes like camas mountain, canyon mountain and sexton pass
and hayes hill. In jackson county, snow accumulations where
greatest above 2000 feet especially along western foothills of the
cascades including near butte falls and prospect as well as near
jacksonville hill. Light slushy snow amounts were also observed in
other areas including near ashland and eagle point. Across the
cascades, siskiyous and into eastern areas over northern klamath,
moderate to heavy snow was observed overnight. Areas of light to
moderate snow extended into other eastern areas and into siskiyou
county as well.

With a cold showery air mass now in place, expect a mix of light
to moderate showers today. Snow levels for accumulating snow are
expected to be mainly near 2000 feet or slightly higher during the
day, lowering to 1500 feet this evening. Note, during the day,
may see some rain snow mix or graupel below 2000 feet in isolated
heavier showers. With the lower snow levels and ongoing showers,
have continued advisories across the area. Also with the chance to
showery pattern and less risk for heavy snow, have changed the
warning in the cascades to an advisory. The best chance for snow
accumulations on lower valley floors and lower passes down to 1500
feet will be in the evening, especially in areas favored by
northwest upslope flow such as the southern rogue valley from
phoenix to ashland, areas along the umpqua divide south of
canyonville and the western cascade foothills in southern oregon.

Locations in western siskiyou, over the cascades and areas in
klamath county are also favored for showers this evening.

A light dusting of snow is possible over some lower valley
locations tonight as snow levels continue to lower down to around
1000 feet. However given that showers will be decreasing during
this time period, expect this to be spotty.

A few light showers may linger into Thursday, especially over the
mountains such as the siskiyous, portions of the cascades and into
the hart and warner mountains. However, expect little or no
accumulation in snow showers. Temperatures will start out cold
across the area though with low temperatures in the 20s for most
western valleys and in the lower teens in eastern valleys.

Aviation For the 20 12z tafs... Along the coast and into the
umpqua basin (including koth and krbg)... Areas of MVFR CIGS vsbys in
low clouds, rain, and rain showers will persist into tonight with
higher terrain obscured. Snow levels will be 1500 to 2000 feet,
dropping to 1000 to 1500 feet late tonight as the showers diminish.

Over the remainder of the west side (including kmfr)... Areas of
ifr MVFR CIGS vsbys in low clouds, rain and snow will persist into
tonight with higher terrain obscured. Snow levels will be 1500 to
2000 feet, dropping to around 1000 feet late tonight as the showers
diminish.

From the cascades east (including klmt)... Areas of ifr MVFR
cigs vsbys in low clouds, snow, and snow showers will persist into
to night with areas of higher terrain obscured. Showers will
diminish tonight. Keene

Marine Updated 830 am pst Wednesday 20 february 2019... A front
moved through the area last night. This will bring very steep and
hazardous seas for most areas. The seas will be a combination of
wind driven short period waves, fresh northwest swell, and longer
period northwest swell. Winds and seas will subside late Thursday
but more so Friday as high pressure moves through. There will
probably be a period of small craft advisory conditions Thursday
afternoon and evening south of CAPE blanco before conditions improve
there. A weak front will move in Friday afternoon into Friday night.

Northwest swell will build behind it Saturday into Saturday night,
and seas may become steep. Details on timing and strength of this
front and the following swell are still uncertain.

Prev discussion issued 409 am pst Wed feb 20 2019
discussion... This frontal boundary has come in somewhat
differently than one would expect a traditional front to behave in
the pacific northwest. Radar and satellite imagery are showing a
more showery nature to the precipitation. This could end up
changing the nature of the snowfall amounts and where the heaviest
snows will occur. Right now, snow levels are generally hovering
between 1500 and 2000 feet. The low elevation passes between
grants pass and roseburg are indicating some periods of heavy snow
per odot and caltrans websites, although it is a bit difficult to
see via the web cameras. Meanwhile, siskiyou summit appears quiet
(this will change as showers move across it). Along and east of
the cascades, however, is a much different story as web cameras
are showing periods of heavy snow, likely orographically enhanced.

This snow is impacting highway 97, and likely impacting the
klamath falls airport. Overall, the main band of heavy
precipitation which we expected to occur over the cascades appears
to have shifted eastward into eastern oregon in association with
the strong winds aloft.

Regardless, rain and showers will continue throughout the day
today, with periods of moderate to heavy snow occurring in any
particular shower. Before the Sun rises, it would not surprise me
to see a particularly heavy shower bring snow to the valley
floors. With daytime heating, expect to see most of the impacts
occur above 2000 feet. Winter headlines (a winter storm warning
for the cascades, and a winter weather advisory for most other
places above 1500 feet) exist until 10 pm tonight. Please see the
wswmfr for more details including amounts.

Additionally, a few showers today could bring graupel (small hail)
to the valley floors, and maybe across highway 101. The shower
pattern will continue through tonight as cold air penetrates back
into the area causing snow levels to crash back to the valley
floors. The showers will come to an end very early tomorrow
morning, but a dusting of snow could be possible in medford.

Then, a relative break is expected Thursday with generally cold
air. Temperatures will be frigid for many areas east of the
cascades with temperatures in the single digits or even below zero
fahrenheit, and freeze headlines may be needed once again for the
coast for Thursday night into Friday morning.

Another system appears destined for our area again this weekend,
with periods of moderate rain with mountain snows. Snow levels may
be higher as this system appears to have a bit of an atmospheric
river signature, but another low pressure system is dipping south
from british columbia, and it looks to be combining with the
excess moisture. Our snow levels will start off rather low once
again, but may raise to be around 2500 to 3000 feet this weekend.

Thus higher passes like lake of the woods, and siskiyou summit may
see some impactful snow. That being said, this system is still
days away, and snow levels could easily change to where the low
passes become affected as well. Thus, it would be prudent to stay
tuned to the forecast.

Another relatively brief break is expected in the extended portion
of the forecast, but models are indicating yet another system to
reach our area by late next week. -schaaf

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for
orz029>031.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 1500
feet in the for orz024-026.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for
orz025-027-028.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 1500
feet in the for orz023.

Ca... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 2000
feet in the for caz080-081.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 10 am pst Thursday
for pzz356.

Hazardous seas warning until 10 am pst Thursday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Cc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR118 mi69 minN 310.00 miLight Rain40°F36°F86%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr45NW12
G17
NW10NW9NW10
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NW8NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6NW12
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--N5N7CalmNW6N3
1 day ago4W63W4NW8NW6NW6NE4NE3N4CalmNE7NE7NE4N3N4N4NE6NE5NE5--N4NE65
2 days ago4W34CalmNW5W7NW9NW6NW5NE4NE4NE33N4CalmCalmCalmNE4NE53SE3E3E4NE10
G15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Eureka, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.