Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugerties, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 4:36PM Thursday November 15, 2018 6:57 PM EST (23:57 UTC) Moonrise 2:06PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 432 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.gale warning in effect through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt late this evening, then becoming E 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 432 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Intensifying low pressure will move up the coast and pass over the waters on Friday. High pressure will return for the weekend. Weak low pressure will pass through late Sunday through Monday. High pressure will return on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugerties, NY
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location: 42.07, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 152343
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
643 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
A coastal low pressure system will spread accumulating snow
into the region from south to north this evening into tonight.

The snow will be heavy at times. The snow is expected to mix
with sleet and freezing rain for areas from around albany south
and east. Wintry precipitation tapers off from west to east
Friday late morning into early afternoon, with additional lake
effect snow possible for the higher terrain. Continued colder
than normal temperatures expected for the weekend with mainly
dry conditions outside of the lake effect belts.

Near term through Friday
A winter storm warning remains effect until 1pm Friday for
the capital district, schoharie valley, mohawk valley, lake
george saratoga region, northern taconics, and helderbergs of
eastern new york, the berkshires of western massachusetts,
litchfield county of connecticut, windham county in vermont, and
the southern adirondacks...

Winter weather advisory remains in effect until 1pm Friday
for the mid hudson valley, northern taconics, washington county
of new york and bennington county of vermont...

as of 635 pm est, very heavy snowband continues to track slowly
northward across mid hudson valley, southern taconics and
litchfield county, ct, where snowfall rates of at least 2-3
inches hour are occurring. Based on the intensity of this band,
have raised snow totals across this region into the 7-10" range,
most of which will be occurring by 9 or 10 pm. Will have to see
if intensity it maintained as it continues tracking northward.

Handling heavy snowband via sps's.

Previous discussion follows...

our winter storm is on track to bring the first widespread
snowfall to all of eastern new york and western new england
starting this evening and continuing into Friday morning. The
coastal low as of 4pm est is near CAPE hatteras, nc with a mslp
of around 1005mb based on the latest rap analysis. Latest goes16
water vapor channels show the parent potent cut off shortwave
still holding strong over the tn valley providing very strong
upper level divergence which will enable our coastal low to
intensify further over the coming hours. We also can see a
pronounced baroclinic leaf on water vapor channels over
spreading into the northeast associated with the approaching
laterally transient snow band as has been researched in previous
cstar projects.

Latest observations show dew points in the single digits to low
teens over the albany forecast area with the band of heavy snow
moving north of the nyc metro area. However, the dry air is no match
for the impressive isentropic lift and intense 700-500mb
frontogenesis associated with this band and we have seen most of the
airports saturate quickly and report snow once radar
reflectivities encroach into the region. In fact, both jfk and
ewr have reported 2 inch per hour rates within this band and
such intensities are expected to occur in the mid-hudson valley
and litchfield, ct this evening. Given temperatures in the upper
20s, snow should have no issues accumulating on any untreated
surface which could lead to a dangerous evening commute. This
was one of the reasons we issued a winter storm warning for
these areas. We have been issuing special weather statements to
reflect the dangerous travel conditions under this band.

The band should continue tracking northward this evening, reaching
the capital district around 7-9pm with high snowfall rates still
possible as bufkit profiles show strong omega through a deep layer
in the column and even intercepting the dendritic snow growth zone
which is situated rather high in the column between 600-500mb. The
laterally transient snow band should bring a 4-5 hour window of high
impacts to eastern new york western new england including snowfall
rates of 1 inch + per hour before the strong 45-50knot mid-level jet
pushes the band into the upper hudson valley and the adirondacks by
10pm-1am tonight. During this period, the majority of the storm
total snowfall is expected to accumulate. Despite the cold surface
temperatures, snow ratios may actually not stray much from
climatology, peaking only near 10-12:1 during this period due to an
upper level warm nose and we even expect snow ratio to drop near or
under 10:1 as the band moves out of the region. The SE wind regime
means downsloping effects could limit snow accumulations for
washington county, the northern taconics as well as the valley of
bennington county, vt so decreased snow totals there and continued
with only a winter weather advisory.

Once the bands reaches the adirondacks upper hudson valley, we are
expecting the laterally transient band to stall for a few hours as
the parent shortwave opens up and our coastal low becomes the
dominant feature off the coast of nj long island. The band could
become a pivoting band near the foothills of the adirondacks down
into the mohawk valley as shown in the latest hi-res and href
guidance. Areas south will likely enter into the warm dry sector
after midnight with heavy snow transitioning to scattered sleet and
freezing rain drizzle. Surface temperatures likely remain near or
below freezing all night so ice accretion is possible, especially in
the litchfield county, berkshires, taconics, eastern catskills,
schoharie and mid-hudson valley. Up to 0.10 of inch of ice is
possible in the higher elevations. Some uncertainty still remains
with how far north the warm dry sector extends but the latest
forecast soundings show a weak warm nose signature up to alb so
mixed sleet up into the capital district.

Heading into Friday morning, the pivoting band should finally push
eastward from the foothills of the adirondacks mohawk valley towards
the capital district and areas east as our coastal low starts
exiting out to sea. This means areas previously in the warm dry
sector could see moderate snow return for a brief period with an
additional 1-2 inches possible. This would impact the Friday morning
commute time. However, the band should exit into new england by late
morning early afternoon Friday as our coastal low exits into the
gulf of maine. Storm total snowfall amounts are expected to range 5
to 10 inches across eastern ny and western new england with the
highest amounts expected north and west of the capital district
where less mixing is anticipated.

Once the snow exits, temperatures should finally warm into the mid -
upper 30s for Friday afternoon with breezy winds possible in the
wake of the departing coastal low. A weakening clipper from the
great lakes looks to lead to lake effect and upslope snow for the
afternoon hours for the adirondacks and western mohawk valley.

Short term Friday night through Sunday
The storm system will be well north and east of the region by
Friday evening, as the cyclone center will be moving through the
canadian maritimes. However, and additional short wave trough
aloft will be moving through our region during the evening,
which will enhance the snowfall potential with some upslope and
lake enhancement across the western adirondacks. A period of
persistent snow showers through Friday evening will result in a
quick 1-3" of snow across mainly northern central herkimer and
western hamilton counties. Outside of this area, mainly a
dusting to a few tenths of an inch will be possible in the
mohawk schoharie valley and southern green mountains. It will be
breezy through Friday night, with some upslope lake enhanced
snow showers persisting in the western adirondacks, although
inversion heights will be lowering as the short wave moves east
so lighter accumulations are expected after midnight.

On Saturday, with well-aligned westerly flow and conditional
lake induced instability, there will be at least scattered lake
effect snow showers across the western adirondacks. Again, with
low inversion heights around 800 mb, and accumulations will be
very light. Elsewhere it will be dry with seasonable
temperatures. Went a little below mav met guidance for MAX temps
Saturday due to expected lingering snow cover across much of
the region.

Late Saturday into Saturday night, a cold front will be pushing
southward across the area. This system looks to have limited
moisture and weak dynamics aloft, so the main driver for snow
showers will be convergence along the boundary, picking up some
lake moisture due to continued westerly flow aloft. Again, we
are expecting only a dusting to a half inch in some spots,
mainly of areas west of the hudson valley. By late Saturday
night, temps will plunge back into the teens and 20s in wake of
the cold front.

Sunday will be mainly dry and cold, with surface high pressure
in place. MAX temps will likely be around 10 degrees below
normal. Some snow showers will be possible later in the day, as
a weak short wave trough approaches from the west. Will only
mention 20-30 pops at this time, as there is some disagreement
among sources of guidance. QPF looks to be light though through
the daylight hours with only a dusting of accumulation possible.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
The period begins with widespread snow that quickly pulls off
the new england coast. A cold front keeps snow showers in the
area of the northern adirondacks through Tuesday night. The
balance of the period will be dry as high pressure gradually
builds in from the southeast.

Temperatures will be colder than normal, with highs ranging
from the mid 20s to upper 30s on Monday, around 20 degrees to
the mid 20s on Tuesday, and rebounding back to the mid 20s to
upper 30s on thanksgiving. Lows Sunday night will range from the
upper teens to near freezing Sunday night, from around 10
degrees to the mid 20s Monday night, and the mid single digits
to lower 20s Tuesday night. Readings will begin to moderate
Wednesday night.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
Low pressure will track rapidly northward along the mid atlantic
coast overnight, and off the new england coast during Friday.

Moderate to heavy snow will overspread the TAF sites from south
to north this evening, with conditions rapidly dropping to ifr lifr
within about an hour of snow onset. Heavier snowband at kpou
will track northward reaching kpsf within the hour, and kalb
between 01-02z fri, and kgfl closer to or after 03z fri. The
heaviest snow should last 1-2 hours in duration.

After a few hours of this, intensity will lower and some mixing
with pl fzra will occur at kpsf kpou. Some sleet is also
possible at kalb, and may mix with sleet eventually at kgfl.

Visibility will improve somewhat for the 2nd half of the
overnight hours, but ceilings will remain borderline for
ifr MVFR through the rest of the overnight.

Towards daybreak, another round of steady precip (mainly in the
form of snow) is expected for a few hours into Friday morning.

Visibility ceilings will likely be ifr with this precip. Snow
will taper off by 15-17z, allowing for visibility to improve,
although some lingering MVFR ceilings are possible, especially
at kpsf kgfl.

Winds will become north to northeast and increase to 8-12 kt
this evening, then back into the north to northwest at similar
speeds Friday. Some gusts of up to 20-25 kt will be possible,
esp at kpsf.

Low level wind shear is likely overnight, as surface winds
remain N to NE at 8-12 kt while winds around 2000 ft agl become
east to southeast and increase to 30-40 kt.

Outlook...

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of sn.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shsn.

Fire weather
Widespread wintry precipitation expected this evening into
Friday. Then, it will be mainly dry outside of lake effect and
upslope areas, but continued unseasonably cool through the
weekend.

Hydrology
A strengthening coastal low pressure system will bring
widespread wintry precipitation to the region from this evening
into Friday. The precipitation is expected to change to sleet
and or freezing rain especially from the capital district south
and east tonight into early Friday morning. QPF ranges from
around 0.50 to 1.25 inches, with the heaviest amounts over the
mid hudson valley, litchfield county, and the berkshires where
rivers are already running high. Flooding on the main stem
rivers is not expected, but some urban and poor drainage
flooding cannot be ruled out due to the saturated ground as
tempertures rise above freezing on Friday.

It will be mainly dry for the weekend outside of lake effect
snow over the western adirondacks.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm warning until 1 pm est Friday for ctz001-013.

Ny... Winter storm warning until 1 pm est Friday for nyz032-033-
038>042-047>053-058>061-063>066-082-083.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est Friday for nyz043-054-
084.

Ma... Winter storm warning until 1 pm est Friday for maz001-025.

Vt... Winter storm warning until 1 pm est Friday for vtz014-015.

Winter weather advisory until 1 pm est Friday for vtz013.

Synopsis... Thompson jpv
near term... Kl speciale
short term... Jpv
long term... Elh
aviation... Frugis kl
fire weather... Thompson jpv
hydrology... Thompson jpv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 4 mi88 min 26°F 1028 hPa23°F
TKPN6 4 mi46 min N 4.1 G 6 25°F 41°F25°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 74 mi46 min NE 12 G 16 26°F 54°F1024.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi40 min NE 9.9 G 14 29°F 54°F1025.3 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY30 mi65 minNNE 70.25 miHeavy Snow Freezing Fog26°F23°F88%1025.8 hPa

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Last 24hrN3NW63NE8N9E4NE6N3N3CalmCalmCalmN3N3N3CalmE5NE4E5E5E5NE3CalmN7
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N105NW5NW5W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:41 AM EST     0.80 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:36 AM EST     3.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:53 PM EST     1.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:34 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:42 PM EST     3.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:34 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.90.81.21.92.52.93.23.22.92.31.71.51.31.31.52.22.83.33.53.63.32.72

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:11 AM EST     0.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST     3.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 01:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:23 PM EST     1.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:34 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:12 PM EST     3.40 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:35 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.91.52.12.52.932.92.41.91.51.31.21.31.72.42.93.23.43.32.92.21.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.