Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 4:21 AM   Moonset 5:15 PM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1227 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
This afternoon - SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Showers likely. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers likely, mainly in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Patchy fog in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Tue - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Thu - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 1227 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure along the new england coast weakens locally as it shifts farther offshore through this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. The front eventually tracks through the region late Monday, stalling to our south. High pressure then briefly returns before the stalled boundary returns as a warm front Tuesday night. A series of low pressure centers then impact the weather from Wednesday through Saturday.

FXUS61 KALY 051725 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 125 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
Along with much cooler temperatures, rain will continue through much of the day before tapering to showers for this evening into tonight. Clouds will break for some sunshine on Monday with milder temperatures returning to the region. Warm and sunny weather is expected on Tuesday before the threat for showers returns Wednesday into the latter portion of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 125 PM EDT...A slow moving frontal boundary is located over Ontario and across the Great Lakes. Ahead of this storm system, decent isentropic lift thanks to a south-southwest low level jet of 30-40 kts is allowing for a steady area of light to moderate rainfall over much of the region. The steadiest and heaviest rain is in a band from the eastern Catskills and mid Hudson Valley northeast through the Capital Region, Taconics and Berkshires and into southern VT. Through the afternoon hours, this band of steadiest rainfall will be slowly shifting eastward.

Temps are fairly uniform early this afternoon with values in the mid 40s to lower 50s. With plenty of clouds/rain around and a persistent surface S-SE wind, temps will remain steady through the evening hours and even into tonight.

Steady rain will become more showery this evening, as the short wave aloft moves through with the surface front still lagging back to our west. Will continue to mention likely/categorical PoPs through the evening. The short wave tracks east into New England overnight, while the surface front approaches from central NY. So scattered showers could linger through the overnight hours. Total rainfall expected to be around 0.50-1.25" with the greatest amounts in the Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks where the S-SW low level jet intersects the higher terrain. The rainfall should not result in any hydro concerns given dry conditions over the past several days.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
The flow will shift to a more W-NW direction as zonal flow aloft sets up on Mon. However, the slow-moving front will still be tracking E-SE across the area during the morning to early afternoon hours. So while there will be a drying trend through the day, isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible along the front as it passes through. PWATs lower considerably late in the day, as surface high pressure starts to build east from the Great Lakes. Breaks of sunshine should occur during the afternoon. With good mixing developing and mild temperatures aloft, highs should reach the mid/upper 60s in the mountains to lower/mid 70s in the valleys.

High pressure builds east into our region Mon night into Tue, providing dry/tranquil conditions. With clearing skies Mon night, lows look to be mainly in the 40s. Dry, sunny and warm weather expected on Tue with high pressure remaining in place.
With a light NW breeze and dry low levels, highs could reach the mid/upper 70s in most lower elevation locations.

After a dry evening, chances for showers will start to increase overnight as a warm front associated with an eastward advancing cyclone over the central Great Lakes quickly approaches. Will continue mention of chance PoPs for now due to some timing differences among the guidance. Lows will be a bit milder with the increasing clouds, ranging from mid/upper 40s north of Albany to mid 50s south.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Unsettled conditions through the long term period, as upper level troughing develops across the Great Lakes/upper midwest, and gradually builds eastward. Mid/upper level disturbances ahead of the developing trough will bring several rounds of showers and/or steady rainfall to the region during the period.

Initial disturbance tracks across the region Wednesday. Long- term guidance suggests some respectable instability/mid level lapse rates track across the region with this disturbance, especially areas south of I-90. Depending on the exact track and timing of this system, there could be strong thunderstorms, especially areas south of I-90. Second disturbance tracks just south of the region Thursday-Thursday night, bringing another round of showers or steady rain. Yet another disturbance may bring showers or steady rain for a portion of Saturday.

Temperatures will trend below normal during the period, although initially may be above normal Wednesday with highs in the 70s for some valley areas south/east of Albany. Otherwise, highs mainly in the 50s and 60s, perhaps even cooler should widespread steady rainfall occur. Lows in the 40s, with some 30s possible across higher elevations.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 12Z Monday...A frontal system approaching from the west will bring occasional rain to the TAF sites through most of today. Rain tapers off this evening, with patchy drizzle and isolated showers lingering through Monday morning.

Periods of light to moderate rain will affect the TAF sites through today, with mainly MVFR to occasional IFR Cigs. Vsbys will be mainly VFR/MVFR, however will drop to IFR within areas of moderate rain.

Steady rain should taper off from west to east between roughly 22Z/Sun-03Z/Mon. Some lingering showers/drizzle and areas of fog will be possible in the wake of the steady rain tonight through early Monday morning, with MVFR/IFR Vsbys and IFR Cigs likely.

Winds will be mainly southeast to south at 8-12 KT through today, with some gusts up to 20-25 KT, especially at KALB.
Winds will become south to southwest and decrease to 5-10 KT later this evening.

Low level wind shear is possible at any TAF sites where winds decrease to less than 10 KT this afternoon. At this time, it appears winds at the TAF sites will remain above this level, so no low level wind shear has been indicated at this time, however trends will need to be watched for possible subsequent inclusion.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact
Definite SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Tivoli
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Sun -- 04:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:40 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:23 PM EDT     4.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:55 PM EDT     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
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Tivoli, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Kingston Point
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Sun -- 04:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:10 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:53 AM EDT     4.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:25 PM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
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Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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