Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugerties, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:36PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 11:17 AM EST (16:17 UTC) Moonrise 8:01PMMoonset 8:37AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 914 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Today..E winds around 5 kt, becoming se this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of snow late this morning, then chance of snow early this afternoon. Snow late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to less than 1 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Sleet, snow, rain and freezing rain in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Sun..SE winds around 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
ANZ300 914 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure moves offshore this morning, followed by a low pressure system that will impact the waters this afternoon into Thursday morning. A cold front follows on Thursday afternoon with high pressure returning Thursday night through Saturday. Another low pressure system then impacts the waters Saturday night into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugerties, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.07, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kaly 201500
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1000 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
An approaching low pressure system will bring light snow late
this afternoon and into this evening, changing to a wintry mix
later tonight. It will become milder and mainly dry for Thursday
into Friday. Another storm system could bring a wintry mix
changing to rain Saturday night into Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Winter weather advisory in effect for eastern new york and
western new england late today through early Thursday morning...

as of 950 am, high cirrus has overspread the region with
overcast skies throughout the forecast area. Temperatures are
tracking the current forecast well. Virga beginning to spread
into southern reaches of the forecast area, but given the
excessively dry airmass in place (pwat 0.12 0.20 on the 12z
kaly kokx soundings, respectively), it will take some time to
saturate the column. Closest snowfall observation is near
williamsport east stroudsburg, pa, which is in line with latest
cams. Little changes were needed to the going forecast at this
time.

Previous discussion...

the system that will impact our region later today into tonight
is currently producing quite a bit of deep convection across
the ohio valley region and points south. Models suggest that
this convection translates eastward through the day, remaining
closer to elevated instability near and south of the ohio river.

Heavier precipitation associated with this convection is
therefore expected to remain south and east of the region, with
additional heavier precipitation tracking into the great lakes
region closer to the main upper level system. The deeper
convection to our south may reduce moisture transport into our
region, resulting in relatively lighter QPF for our region with
this system. However, will have to watch trends closely in case
the heavier precipitation and embedded convective elements to
our south decrease more than expected, which could allow for
greater moisture transport and higher QPF into our region.

So, assuming we have the lighter qpf, clouds will continue to
thicken lower through the day, with light snow developing across
southern areas (se catskills, mid hudson valley and NW ct)
between roughly 3-6 pm, and across central areas (the capital
district of ny, saratoga region, mohawk valley, and berkshires)
between 6-8 pm. Snowfall accumulations of 1-2 inches could occur
by 7 pm across the eastern catskills, mid hudson valley,
central and southern taconics, and NW ct, with perhaps up to an
inch across the western mohawk valley, capital region and
central taconics and berkshires.

Areas farther north (southern adirondacks, lake george region
and southern vt) should have the snow begin generally after 8
pm.

Highs today mainly in the mid upper 20s by mid afternoon,
although temps may fall a few degrees shortly after snow begins
due to wet bulb cooling effects.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
Tonight, snow will continue to overspread the entire region
between 8 and 10 pm. A few moderate bursts of snow will be
possible, especially across the mohawk valley and sw
adirondacks, where isentropic lift will be strongest and should
coincide with added orographic effects. Snowfall rates of up to
one half inch per hour could occur, however the potential for
greater snowfall rates may be limited by the increasingly grainy
texture of the snow, due to relatively warm temperatures near
cloud top levels (generally -6 c to -10 c), with dry air above
h600 limiting cloud depth and potential for dendritic snow
crystals, especially after 10 pm.

The snow should then change to sleet fairly quickly from SW to
ne between roughly 10 pm and 1 am, as a robust warm nose aloft
impinges on the region from the southwest, and then for areas
near and south of i-90, should mix with and or change to
freezing rain after 1 am. There could be some bursts of moderate
sleet at times.

Precipitation should begin to decrease in areal coverage and
intensity after 4 am, as a deeper layer of mid level dry air
sweeps across the area from the west southwest. However, low
levels will remain rather moist, so areas of freezing
drizzle light freezing rain and some now grains should occur
during this time across most of the region.

Total snow sleet amounts should range from 1-3 inches, although
locally higher amounts could occur across portions of the
eastern catskills, and higher terrain of the southern green
mountains and northern berkshires.

Total ice accretion from freezing rain should generally average
one tenth of an inch or less, although there could be some
isolated amounts up to one quarter of an inch across the
southern berkshires and litchfield hills, and possibly the
western mohawk valley.

As a strong low level jet translates northeast across the
region, strong wind gusts may occur across higher terrain of the
sw adirondacks, eastern catskills, and the climatologically
favored areas of the southern greens, berkshires and
north central taconics, where southeast winds may gust up to
30-40 mph for a short duration, roughly between 10 pm and 2 am.

Low temperatures will be this evening, mainly in the 20s, with
slowly rising temps after midnight, reaching the lower mid 30s
across many areas south of i-90 by daybreak, with upper 20s to
lower 30s to the north.

For Thursday, areas of freezing drizzle and drizzle may linger
through mid morning, with the freezing drizzle mainly for the
southern adirondacks, lake george saratoga region and southern
vermont, where temps may be slower to rise above the freezing
mark. For this reason, have extended the end time of the
northern portion of the winter weather advisory until 10 am
Thursday morning.

As an occluded front sweeps eastward, deeper mixing should
commence from west to east later in the morning through early
afternoon, allowing for a spike in temps. So, highs may reach
the 40s in valley areas by early afternoon, and perhaps near or
over 50 across the mid hudson valley. It also should become
windy by afternoon, with west winds increasing to 15-25 mph,
with some gusts of 30-40 mph possible.

Lots of clouds should dominate areas along and north of i-90 for
Thursday night into Friday morning, with some snow showers even
possible across the SW adirondacks. Clearing is expected from sw
to NE Friday afternoon, with mainly clear and chilly conditions
expected Friday night.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
System that originates from the SW u.S. Ejects NE tracking through
the central u.S. And into the great lakes by Sunday. There is an
increasing consensus that the upper system is a closed low that
tracks around the northern periphery of mean flat upper ridging in
eastern north america. The closed upper low then tracks north of the
u.S. Canada border Sunday through Monday.

Clouds and precipitation spread into our region by Saturday evening,
which should be mainly rain but some mix of rain and snow in higher
terrain. Highs Saturday in the upper 30s to lower 40s but mid 30s
higher terrain.

Precipitation mixes with some sleet and freezing rain in northern
areas and parts of the eastern catskills, schoharie valley,
berkshires and southern vt as some wet bulb cooling of low level
temperatures is possible. There should be a cold rain in all other
areas. Stronger warm advection Sunday morning is expected to change
the mixed precipitation to rain. Rain becomes showers as coverage
decreases when the upper system and associated cold front depart.

Highs Sunday in the mid 40s to around 50 but lower 40s northern
areas. There is an increasing consensus that the low level pressure
gradient will increase significantly with the rapid deepening of low
pressure. Some very strong west to northwest winds are likely late
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night and much of Monday. Wind
headlines may be needed once we get closer to the weekend and more
details about specifics are available.

Dry weather is expected Monday and much of Tuesday with winds
diminishing Monday afternoon and night as low level ridging centers
itself over our region. Highs Monday in the mid 30s to around 40
but mid to upper 20s and some lake effect snow shower activity into
the southern adirondacks. Highs Tuesday with clouds potentially
increasing ahead of the next system, in the 30s but lower to mid 20s
northern areas.

Aviation 15z Wednesday through Sunday
Strong surface high builds east of our region today as a low
pressure system approaches later this afternoon and evening. High
clods will thicken and lower through the day and the leading edge of
snow will affect our region beginning between 21z-23z with steadier
snow beginning between 23z-01z. Ceilings and visibilities will
rapidly lower to borderline ifr MVFR during the snow. Snow will
begin to transition to sleet through this evening but ceilings and
visibilities will remain borderline ifr MVFR. Mixed
precipitation will transition to mainly freezing rain between
04z-07z with some periods of sleet mixed in and just a chance
for freezing drizzle.

Winds will be near calm through mid morning then become south
to southeast at less than 10 kt through this morning and
continue through tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday night: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: high operational impact. Likely ra... Sleet.

Sunday: high operational impact. Breezy likely shra... Ra.

Hydrology
Hydrological impacts are not expected through at least Saturday.

Seasonably cold weather is expected through today, promoting
additional ice expansion on area waterways.

The next system arrives late this afternoon into Thursday
morning with snow transitioning to a wintry mix. Liquid
equivalent amounts of generally a quarter to a half an inch are
expected. Temperatures are expected to run a bit above normal
Thursday into the weekend.

Another period of rain or mixed precipitation is possible
Saturday night into Sunday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am est
Thursday for ctz001-013.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am est
Thursday for nyz047-058>060-063>066.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
Thursday for nyz038-040-048>054-061.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est
Thursday for nyz032-033-039-041>043-082>084.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
Thursday for maz001-025.

Vt... Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 10 am est
Thursday for vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Kl thompson
near term... Kl thompson
short term... Kl
long term... Nas
aviation... Nas
hydrology... Kl thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 4 mi47 min SSE 1.9 22°F 1036 hPa11°F
TKPN6 4 mi35 min S 7 G 8 23°F 1036.3 hPa13°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 74 mi35 min E 4.1 G 5.1 26°F 36°F1035.6 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi29 min SSW 1 G 2.9 26°F 37°F1036.5 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
Last
24hr
N4
G7
N7
G12
NW8
G12
N6
G12
N6
G10
N8
G11
N4
G9
N3
G6
N4
N2
N5
G10
N5
G8
N4
G9
N4
N4
G7
N3
G7
N4
NE3
NE5
NE5
NW3
N1
N1
G4
NE2
G5
1 day
ago
N3
N3
W2
G6
NW4
G7
NW5
G12
NW6
G14
N7
G15
N7
G12
NW4
G11
NW7
G10
N8
G14
NW7
G10
N9
G13
NW10
G15
N6
G10
NW6
G9
NW7
W3
G7
N2
N3
N6
N4
G8
N6
G9
N8
G15
2 days
ago
E6
G11
SE9
SW9
G12
SW7
G11
S6
G9
S5
G8
SW4
S5
SW6
G9
S4
SE4
S4
SE5
NE1
NE4
NE5
NE4
E4
G8
E7
G11
E5
E6
G9
NE3
G6
E4
NE4

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY30 mi24 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy24°F9°F52%1034.9 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNW5NW4N6N5N5N3N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoW3CalmN6N11NW7NW4W4W4NW5NW7NW9NW8NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6
2 days agoNE4CalmCalmNW3W3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4N3E4CalmNE3CalmCalmN5N3N4N3NW4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Tivoli
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:07 AM EST     4.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:37 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:37 AM EST     -1.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:23 PM EST     4.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:13 PM EST     -1.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
3.14.14.54.33.42.20.9-0.1-0.9-0.901.73.34.44.94.94.231.70.4-0.6-1.1-0.80.5

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Kingston Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:37 AM EST     4.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:36 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:07 AM EST     -0.97 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:53 PM EST     4.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:43 PM EST     -1.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
3.54.14.23.72.61.40.3-0.5-1-0.60.82.43.74.44.74.33.52.21-0.1-0.9-1.1-0.21.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (11,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.