Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Plain, MI

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Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 8:39PM Sunday August 19, 2018 12:05 AM EDT (04:05 UTC) Moonrise 2:56PMMoonset 12:13AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 1025 Pm Edt Sat Aug 18 2018
Overnight..Northeast wind 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..East wind 5 knots backing north in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ043 Expires:201808191015;;282934 FZUS53 KIWX 190225 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1025 PM EDT Sat Aug 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ043-191015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Plain, MI
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location: 42.07, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 182313
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
713 pm edt Sat aug 18 2018

Synopsis
Issued at 125 pm edt Sat aug 18 2018
while isolated showers this evening are possible, most places
will remain dry. Some areas of fog are again possible towards
daybreak Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the lower to middle
60s. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures will rebound
into the lower to middle 80s on Sunday. A strong low pressure
system approaches and will bring widespread rain to the region,
especially late Monday into early Tuesday. Look for dry and cooler
weather by the middle of next week.

Short term (this evening through Sunday)
issued at 351 pm edt Sat aug 18 2018
weakly sheared environment coupled with poor mid level lapse rates
lending to small towers with only a couple extremely isolated light
showers past hour. Surface based CAPE peak near 1500 j kg in a few
hours and some minor pops through evening with northeast CWA favored
amid lake boundary intersections and presence of subtle
secondary trailing shortwave lagging primary downstream trof. Decay
of diurnally driven CU field and weak high pressure sprawled across
great lakes present similar to last night with potential strong
radiational cooling to 3 to 6 degrees below crossover temperatures.

Have added areas of fog mention from 09-12 utc Mon and defer
stronger wording to later analysis.

Long term (Sunday night through Saturday)
issued at 351 pm edt Sat aug 18 2018
focus continues on early next week system. Strong mid level vortex
over southeast montana to drive into mid-mississippi valley on
Monday. Leading height rises and upstream deep layer cyclogenesis to
provide rich rapid onslaught moisture flux convergence with focused
lift within large warm advection leaf. Any leading discrete storms
could pose a low risk, however given deep warm layer depth,
precipitable water to 2 inches, heavy rainfall rates totals appear
to be primary risk. Ramped pops higher than blend in collaborative
effort with surrounding offices from Monday afternoon through Monday
night. Cooler mid week in wake of strong frontal system pulling
northeast into eastern canada lower great lakes. Large surface ridge
over central CONUS spreads into the southern lower great lakes by
Friday, supportive of blends extended dry period with gradual
thermal moderation.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 704 pm edt Sat aug 18 2018
isolated showers will be near the kfwa terminal for the first
couple hours of this TAF issuance, but ksbn looks to remain dry.

Clearing skies and light winds will likely result in another round
of fog between 8 and 12z Sunday morning. Have retained MVFR visby
for both terminal, but did go ahead and put a tempo ifr for kfwa
given the greater supply of surface moisture. There is a
possibility that visby could be lower for kfwa, but as of now,
confidence is too low to decrease further. Each terminal should
mix out quickly to return toVFR by 14z. Light winds prevail
throughout this TAF cycle while slowly rounding the dial out of a
southeast direction by tomorrow midday.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Murphy
short term... Murphy
long term... Murphy
aviation... Cm
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 2 mi65 min NE 4.1 G 6 73°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.3)
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 9 mi35 min NE 9.7 G 12 74°F 77°F3 ft1015.2 hPa67°F
45168 24 mi25 min NE 5.8 G 9.7 73°F 77°F3 ft1015.3 hPa67°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 25 mi35 min NE 5.1 G 8 71°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 33 mi35 min N 12 G 14 74°F 69°F
45170 34 mi25 min NE 9.7 G 14 75°F 77°F4 ft70°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 46 mi35 min 74°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI5 mi72 minN 01.75 miFog/Mist68°F66°F93%1015 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI23 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair69°F66°F92%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm43445NW6N756--43CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3Calm--CalmCalmCalmCalmW8W83NW4444N3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE4SE4E4E5E3E3SE6Calm3NE3CalmE5Calm----5NW5NW5Calm3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.