Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Plain, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 8:05PM Sunday March 26, 2017 12:52 PM EDT (16:52 UTC) Moonrise 5:59AMMoonset 5:38PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi-michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 1042 Am Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Rest of today..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Areas of fog. Rain likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 5 to 15 knots. Chance of rain through midnight. Areas of fog after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest wind 5 knots veering north 5 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Areas of fog in the morning. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Rain likely through midnight, then chance of rain after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. The water temperature off michigan city is 40 degrees...and 39 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ043 Expires:201703262215;;110150 FZUS53 KIWX 261442 NSHIWX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR INDIANA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1042 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ043-046-262215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Plain, MI
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location: 42.07, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 261528
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1128 am edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
Issued at 1115 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
occasional showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected through
the remainder of the day into early this evening. Conditions will
dry out later this evening into early Monday, but another system
will bring renewed rain chances Monday afternoon into Monday
night. Highs today and Monday will be in the upper 50s to the
middle 60s. Lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 40s.

Update
Issued at 1115 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
overall no major changes to previous forecast/grids. Rain showers
continue to lift north across the forecast area late this morning
with greatest concentration across the north in stronger dpva zone
with lead vort max. Showers to extend southward across central
indiana well located with axis of more pronounced 925-850 hpa
moisture convergence, with short term progs indicating this axis
shifting across far northeast indiana/northwest ohio this
afternoon. A more compact upper vort MAX across west central
illinois will eventually shift eastward across northern indiana
late this afternoon/early this evening. This vort MAX will be
associated with slightly steeper mid level lapse rates as pocket
of -18 to -20 deg c air at 500 hpa lifts northward from southern
indiana. Already beginning to see some uptick in lightning strikes
across southeast indiana in association with this cold pocket,
which should reach at least eastern half of forecast area by late
afternoon. Did heighten thunder wording to chance this afternoon,
especially across the southeast where pocket of 250-750 j/kg of
surface based instability is expected. In terms of temperatures, a
fairly dramatic spread in temps across the area from low to mid
40s east to mid to upper 50s west late this morning, but do
expect as warm frontal feature lifts northward this afternoon that
temps will become more uniform late.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 418 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
an upper low and associated surface low was over northeast missouri
and was moving northeast early this morning. The front that was over
northwest indiana yesterday morning had sagged south and extended
from lafayette to muncie early this morning. A northeast to east
flow out of canada across the chilly waters of lake erie with
temperatures in the 30s was spreading very cool air over far
southern lower michigan and northwest ohio. Upstream aircraft
soundings showed a warm layer up to 17c near 900 mb. Given the low
track northwest of the area, favor a mixing out of the shallow cold
layer before cooler air spreads back into the area behind the low
tonight. Rain with embeded storms will spread northeast today.

Severe storms are not expected, although locally heavy rain is
possible. Rain will end tonight, with temperatures staying mild.

Long term (Monday through Saturday)
issued at 418 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
the next in a series of upper level systems will eject northeast out
of the main upper trof and spread rain back across the area by late
Monday. Thermal profiles indicate all rain for this event. A third
and stronger system will arrive late this week. In the interim
between the second and third systems, very cool air will spread
across the area during the middle of the week as a large high
pressure area builds south out of canada. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday
nights will dip into the 30s. Rejected some 20s for now showing
up in the GFS mex guidance. Kept the precipitation all rain for
now; however, the colder GFS bufkit was favoring a wintry mix at
the start of the event Thursday.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 618 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
low pressure near uin will lift NE today causing easterly flow to
veer to s-sw early this aftn. Large area of rain to the east of
the low center will impact the tafs this morning and should cause
lowering of flight conditions to at least low MVFR. Flight conditions
should improve this aftn as strong low level inversion mixes out,
but sct shra will likely persist until this eve. Wk moist
cyclonic flow tonight should allow for some lowering of ceilings
and MVFR br development.

Iwx watches/warnings/advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Marsili
synopsis... Marsili/skipper
short term... Skipper
long term... Skipper
aviation... Jt
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 25 mi73 min E 11 G 14 48°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 33 mi53 min SE 7 G 8 54°F 54°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 46 mi73 min S 8 G 14 56°F 1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Last
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E21
G29
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G26
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G30
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G26
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G23
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G29
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G27
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1 day
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S3
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NW8
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E2
NW17
G21
N13
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G9
NW3
N6
NE14
G19
E14
G20
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NE15
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G21
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SE7
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G14
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G17
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G17
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G16
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G13
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G15
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G15
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G18
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G19
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G24
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G28
S21
S17
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S21
S12
SW10
G13
S6
S11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Benton Harbor, Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI5 mi60 minSE 76.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist52°F48°F89%1011.9 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI23 mi56 minESE 67.00 miOvercast48°F48°F99%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11
G18
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E12E11E10E11E11E10SE11SE9E9E8E8SE8SE7
1 day agoSW25
G34
SW21
G31
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G28
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SW16
G22
W12CalmN7
G15
N6W4CalmW4W6CalmE5NW3CalmCalmE8E9E6E9E13E13
G20
2 days agoSE12SE12
G20
SE15
G20
SE18
G22
SE13
G20
SE9
G18
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NE3E5SE5S8S10S8S9S8S10
G18
S10S9S11
G18
SW20
G27

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.