Sunday, April30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Plain, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 8:44PM Sunday April 30, 2017 10:40 AM EDT (14:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:31AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 428 Am Edt Sun Apr 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon...
Today..East wind 15 to 20 knots veering southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots in the morning. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southeast wind 10 to 20 knots veering south 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 25 knots. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms through midnight, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 7 feet occasionally to 9 feet in the afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Monday night..Southwest wind 20 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 35 knot gales. Chance of showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet occasionally to 10 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 46 degrees...and 50 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ043 Expires:201704301615;;493152 FZUS53 KIWX 300828 NSHIWX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR INDIANA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 428 AM EDT SUN APR 30 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ043-301615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Plain, MI
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location: 42.07, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 301339
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
939 am edt Sun apr 30 2017

Synopsis
Issued at 410 am edt Sun apr 30 2017
low pressure over northeast oklahoma this morning will move
slowly northeast into the upper great lakes by Monday. This will
result in warmer temperatures across our area today and cooler
conditions again Monday. Showers and scattered thunderstorms with
locally heavy rainfall are expected to continue in the area
through tonight. Scattered showers along with windy conditions are
expected Monday and Monday night, with showers diminishing
Tuesday as the low moves slowly away from our area. High pressure
will build into the area Tuesday night and Wednesday providing
fair weather, but temperatures will remain below normal for early
may.

Update
Issued at 940 am edt Sun apr 30 2017
an area of moderate to heavy rain associated with an MCV will
continue to lift north across NW in/sw lower mi this morning.

Mainly dry otherwise east of i-69 with some minor adjustments made
to pops through 18z. Subsidence in the wake of this first upper
wave may provide a lull in shower/embedded thunder coverage for a
time later this morning and afternoon. This should allow the sfc
portion of the front to mix northward into portions of our in/oh
counties this afternoon. Additional rounds of showers/storms may
re-develop along this differential heating boundary... With aid
from a convectively induced shortwave that may emerge from
convection currently over southeast mo.

Sfc dewpoints will increase into the low-mid 60s immediately
behind the front. However, with low expectations for any
significant breaks in cloud cover and meager lapse rates think
buoyancy could be a large limiting factor for strong/severe
storms along the warm front later this afternoon/evening. With
that said it doesn't take much for low centroid supercells in this
kind of kinematic environment near a strong warm front... With
favorable shear values in the lowest 1 km and low lcl's supporting
a tornado threat near front if more substantial sfc heating is
realized. Latest SPC day 1 outlook kept the area under a slight
(conditional/low) risk for all threats mid afternoon into this
evening. No changes otherwise with locally heavy rainfall the
bigger concern in moisture rich environment.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 410 am edt Sun apr 30 2017
warm front has become rather difficult to locate due to
convective outflows but appears to extend from sfc low over NE ok
ne into SRN in. Low expected to lift slowly NE today allowing warm
front to lift north into our cwa. Iwx VWP suggests cold air is
very shallow over our area with southerly winds on the second gate
at 3kft. On the other hand, southerly sfc gradient not progged by
models to be that strong today so the shallow cool layer may not
mix out, especially across the n-nw portion of CWA closer to
frontal boundary. Given this uncertainty and cool start to the
day, lowered MAX temps for today a few degrees. Convection over
mo/ar expected to split with NRN portion of showers and sct tstms
lifting NE along h85 warm front, clipping our NW this morning,
while solid TSTM line to the south propagates more to the east
into more unstable airmass. This may leave SE portion of the cwa
mainly dry this morning, but as airmass destabilizes this aftn,
expect sct shower/tstm development across this area as well. Given
fcst moderate instability with around 1000j/kg CAPE and 0-6km
shear around 40kt, slight risk of svr storms. Any showers and
especially tstms will contain heavy rainfall in this moist airmass
with pwat's> 1.5". Kept ffa in tact for NW since area of
showers/tstms expected to move through this morning should be of
fairly long duration and could deposit considerable rainfall with
more still likely this aftn/tonight.

Cdfnt will sweep across the area tonight, accompanied by a line of
showers and with wk instability, tstms also psbl. This line will
likely contain heavy rainfall, but of short duration. Also given
very strong wind field accompanying the line, there is a potential
for some damaging wind gusts even in relatively low topped
convection.

Long term (Monday through Saturday)
issued at 410 am edt Sun apr 30 2017
temps behind the cdfnt should fall into the 50s Monday morning and
remain there through the aftn with brisk winds and mostly cloudy
skies as deep low lifts NE into the upr grtlks. Strong cyclonic flow
and rather deep moisture should result in sct showers as well. These
conditions will persist into Monday night with lows in the 40s. Sct
showers should grdly diminish Tue as drier air filters in behind the
departing low. Temps will remain well below normal with highs in the
50s.

High pressure will move across our area Tue night and Wed providing
fair wx with contd cool temps. A strong shrtwv expected to dig se
into the lwr ms valley Thu resulting in another strong low
pressure system lifting slowly NE late in the week. Still appears
this system will track farther to the east than this weekend's
storm with best chances for showers associated with it across our
ern/sern counties. Temperatures will remain below normal through
the period as deep upr trof develops over the ERN usa.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 656 am edt Sun apr 30 2017
showers will increase in coverage and intensity with thunder
possible later as a strong warm front lifts north. Low ceilings
should lift later today at fwa as the front lifts north. Rain
should end by late in the TAF period as the system moves east.

Iwx watches/warnings/advisories
In... Flash flood watch through Monday morning for inz003-004-012.

Mi... Flash flood watch through Monday morning for miz077-078.

Oh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for lmz043-
046.

Update... Steinwedel
synopsis... Jt
short term... Jt
long term... Jt
aviation... Skipper
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 9 mi20 min ESE 16 G 21 47°F 46°F2 ft1010.1 hPa42°F
45168 24 mi20 min E 16 G 19 45°F 46°F2 ft1011.6 hPa41°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 25 mi30 min E 17 G 23 45°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 33 mi20 min ENE 9.9 G 13 47°F 47°F
45170 34 mi20 min 14 G 16 47°F 48°F3 ft46°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 46 mi38 min E 11 G 15 47°F 1009.1 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Benton Harbor, Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI5 mi47 minE 123.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist46°F43°F89%1011.5 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI23 mi43 minE 12 G 164.00 miLight Rain44°F43°F97%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7E10NE8NE10NE55
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1 day ago3W6W63Calm4SE8E5SE7CalmCalmCalmCalm3N4N44N446NE5NE64NE7
2 days agoSW20
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SW11SW13SW13W12SW12
G20
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W10W6SW5CalmNE3CalmSE4S4W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.