Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Plain, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:59AMSunset 6:59PM Thursday October 18, 2018 1:42 PM EDT (17:42 UTC) Moonrise 3:25PMMoonset 12:43AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 1026 Am Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
Rest of today..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Friday..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet occasionally to 9 feet in the afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Friday night..Southwest wind 20 to 25 knots veering northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of showers through midnight. Waves 5 to 8 feet occasionally to 10 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 57 degrees...and 58 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ043 Expires:201810182230;;372156 FZUS53 KIWX 181426 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1026 AM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ043-182230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Plain, MI
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location: 42.07, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 181723
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
123 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018

Synopsis
Issued at 342 am edt Thu oct 18 2018
high pressure will bring abundant sunshine today but temperatures
will still remain below normal as highs only reach the 50s. The
cool pattern will continue through the upcoming weekend with lake
effect rain showers, possibly mixed with wet snowflakes Saturday
night as lows drop into the middle 30s. High temperatures on
Sunday will only be in the 40s. The beginning of next week looks
to remain dry with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 341 am edt Thu oct 18 2018
high pressure building across the region has allowed skies to clear
and winds to decouple. Temperatures were falling into the upper 20s
and lower 30s across most of the region. A stubborn and narrow plume
of lake clouds was slowly eroding but helping keep temps in the mid
30s over far southwest lower michigan and northwest indiana. Expect
most locations to be at or below freezing through sunrise and thus
this will be the last freeze warning issued for the fall season.

Otherwise expect temps to rebound today into the 50s with full sun
and warm air advection developing as southwest flow develops in
afternoon. Mostly clear tonight as high slides east but stays in
control. Warmer thermal profile and light gradient winds on back
side of high will keep lows in the middle to upper 30s.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 341 am edt Thu oct 18 2018
models continue to trend slower with arrival of moisture and short
wave on Friday. Morning should be mostly sunny but becoming breezy
with increasing clouds in the afternoon. Just a slight chance for a
late afternoon shower with initial vort MAX passage.

Main cold front drops south Friday night with small chances for
light showers given lack of deeper moisture. Cold air advection
begins behind this initial front but more potent short wave and cold
front comes in Saturday afternoon and early evening. Sharp short
wave trough and lake enhancement should aid in better shower
chances, especially during the evening hours when thermal trough
moves over lake michigan. Lake induced instability expected to spike
with brief period of ample moisture along with pre-conditioning
trajectories off of lake superior. Have kept pops in the likely
category due to uncertainty with where lake effect showers will
actually be oriented but models in pretty good agreement that there
will be showers. Thermal profiles will have to be watched closely
during the evening. Warm lake induced boundary layer should
penetrate rather far inland on northwest winds and should keep pcpn
as rain initially. However, as boundary layer cools away from lake
during the evening, could see mix of rain and snow with small window
of wet snow showers as core of thermal trough moves through. No
accumulations expected at this time with warm ground and expected
boundary layer modification.

Flow quickly begins to back early Sunday morning and pcpn should
end. Lake clouds may linger into Sunday morning before finally
dissipating. Remainder of the extended kept dry with temps remaining
below normal.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 120 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018
strong subsidence and very dry airmass will ensure ideal aviation
conditions through Friday morning. Next cold front approaches
Friday evening but any reduction in ceiling heights will be after
18z. Strengthening gradient will lead to gusty SW winds tomorrow
though... Mainly during the afternoon.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Lashley
short term... Lashley
long term... Lashley
aviation... Agd
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 2 mi42 min SW 11 G 14 52°F 1033.9 hPa (+0.4)
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 9 mi22 min WSW 12 G 16 51°F 58°F2 ft1033.8 hPa34°F
45168 24 mi32 min W 9.7 G 16 50°F 59°F2 ft1033.7 hPa35°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 25 mi42 min SSW 12 G 14 49°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 33 mi42 min SW 13 G 16 50°F 29°F
45170 34 mi32 min W 12 G 16 51°F 58°F2 ft31°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 46 mi42 min WSW 6 G 8 53°F 1033.5 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI5 mi49 minWSW 910.00 miFair52°F33°F49%1033.5 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI23 mi47 minWSW 8 G 1410.00 miFair52°F31°F46%1033.2 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11
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E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmSE3SE4S7S6W9
1 day agoSW22
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2 days agoW9
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W10W11W11NW7
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W6W10W12S7S6S9S8SW14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.