Friday, April26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Plain, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:38PM Friday April 26, 2019 3:46 AM EDT (07:46 UTC) Moonrise 1:56AMMoonset 11:33AM Illumination 57% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 1051 Pm Edt Thu Apr 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am edt Friday through Friday evening...
Overnight..North wind 15 to 25 knots. Rain. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet occasionally to 9 feet after midnight.
Friday..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Friday night..Northwest wind 5 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..North wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast 5 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Slight chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 45 degrees...and 42 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ043 Expires:201904261015;;493929 FZUS53 KIWX 260251 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1051 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ043-261015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Plain, MI
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location: 42.07, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 260714
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
314 am edt Fri apr 26 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 142 am edt Fri apr 26 2019
a cold front will move through the area the remainder of the
night, accompanied by a period of rain and gusty winds. Rain will
also continue across eastern indiana into northwest ohio as low
pressure moves away. Windy conditions and decreasing clouds are
expected behind this system on Friday. Lows tonight will range
between the mid 40s and mid 50s, with highs on Friday in the upper
50s and low 60s. Cool conditions are expected this weekend with
another round of rain and wind anticipated later Saturday into
Saturday night.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 309 am edt Fri apr 26 2019
water vapor imagery and latest rap analysis depicting upper trof
axis beginning to take on negative tilt and expected to continue
overnight as re-enforcing northern stream wave currently dropping
into western lake superior. Kiwx radar has returns trending weaker
over the past couple of hours but deformation band expected to
continue into the early morning hours. Deepening surface low over
ohio will continue to lift E NE into lake erie this morning then
up into lake ontario by this afternoon. Cold front associated with
northern stream wave may bring some additional light showers
across the area through mid morning before all precip exits to the
east by this afternoon. Very strong gradient on the backside of
the low will result in very windy conditions this
afternoon... Despite surface ridge axis remaining well to the west
there will be decent subsidence and drier air moving in to allow
for some clearing skies... As a result forecast soundings have
mixing depth up to 5kft and supportive and gusts 35-40mph. Surface
ridge axis does progress eastward toward our area tonight... But
not as fast as previous runs as it reaches il in line by 09z
Saturday. Still should see winds rapidly diminishing tonight even
if boundary layer doesnt fully decouple. This along with clear
skies over the CWA will have lows dropping into the mid 30s over
northern half and therefore will still have frost potential in the
pre-dawn hours Saturday morning.

Long term (Saturday through Thursday)
issued at 309 am edt Fri apr 26 2019
pacific energy will continue to stream onshore as next wave
coming out of upper low over gulf of alaska will bring a pretty
dynamic short wave into the mid ms valley by Saturday
afternoon... Aided by good upper level divergence associated with a
somewhat coupled jet structure. Good agreement among the
deterministic models in tracking associated surface low into N nc
indiana Saturday night. Dynamics associated with this system
expected to more than compensate for lacking deep moisture return
as strong isentropic ascent north of warm front will yield a good
half inch or more of rain across the northern half of the cwa.

Thermal profiles across this area will have shrinking surface
based warm layer that may have snow briefly mixing with rain after
midnight and possibly becoming all snow by early morning hours
before ending. System quickly exits to eastern ohio by Sunday
morning as high pressure builds into the great lakes region. Dry
and cool by Sunday afternoon with highs in the low-mid 50s. Dry
weather short-lived as the next in a series of systems to impact
the area begins Monday. Initially starting off as a quasi-zonal
pattern... East west surface boundary will settle south of the area
and result in a cool start to the work week. By mid-week models
bring southern stream pacific energy into SW us and subsequent
downstream amplification will have subtropical ridge building
across the SE us. This should trend surface boundary further north
and have temperatures at or above normal days 5-7. Low confidence
pattern with plenty of spread between models has blend spreading
out extended period of rain chances mon-thu.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Friday night)
issued at 142 am edt Fri apr 26 2019
surface low was east of kaoh and continuing to move ene.VFR
conditions will persist a few more hours with even some partial
clearing possible before main cold front will bring start of gusty
winds and a period of MVFR possible brief ifr CIGS for a few hours
along with some rain before rapid clearing takes place somewhere
around 12z. At kfwa rain will persist through the overnight hours.

Can't rule out a brief break in the rain before the cold front
arrives, but it should rapidly catch up and pass through closer to
11z (ksbn 8z or so).

Obs upstream show winds beginning to gust already with the front
so have introduced gusts to 25 kts or so until clearing takes
place and stronger winds start to mix down around 18z when 30 to
35 kt gusts are expected. Winds will lose the gustiness after 00z
with loss of heating.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for lmz043-046.

Synopsis... Steinwedel
short term... Jal
long term... Jal
aviation... Fisher
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 2 mi47 min N 22 G 26 45°F 1003.7 hPa (-0.4)
45168 24 mi17 min WNW 19 G 23 44°F 43°F5 ft1003.1 hPa39°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 25 mi37 min NW 27 G 30 43°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 33 mi27 min NNW 40 G 49 46°F 44°F
45170 34 mi17 min NNW 23 G 33 45°F 45°F6 ft44°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 46 mi26 min N 13 G 21 46°F 1004.7 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI5 mi54 minno data6.00 miFog/Mist45°F42°F90%1002.7 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI23 mi51 minNNW 12 G 204.00 miFog/Mist44°F41°F92%1002.4 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmCalmCalmCalmE34CalmNW6N55544N3N4CalmNE4CalmN9
G15
--N8N8--
1 day agoCalmCalmNE3CalmE4E6SE6SE6SE3Calm4W7NW6N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmSE3
2 days agoSW8W17
G25
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55NW5NW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.