Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Plain, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 9:24PM Thursday June 21, 2018 10:10 AM EDT (14:10 UTC) Moonrise 2:05PMMoonset 1:33AM Illumination 57% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 419 Am Edt Thu Jun 21 2018
Today..East wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..East wind 10 to 20 knots. Showers through midnight. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..Northeast wind 10 to 20 knots. Showers likely in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northeast wind 5 to 15 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through midnight, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 53 degrees...and 56 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ043 Expires:201806211615;;870589 FZUS53 KIWX 210819 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 419 AM EDT Thu Jun 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ043-211615-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Plain, MI
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location: 42.07, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 211036
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
636 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Synopsis
Issued at 443 am edt Thu jun 21 2018
showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area today. Chances
continue through Sunday, with locally heavy rainfall possible
through Friday night. Highs today into Saturday will be in the 70s,
then climb to around 80 for areas south of us 30 on Sunday.

Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s and 60s. Expect a dry start
to next week, with high pressure building in. Highs will be in the
80s.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 443 am edt Thu jun 21 2018
the saga of the stationary front continues today, with showers and
thunderstorms observed along and just north of the boundary
triggered by weak lift ahead of a shortwave, ejecting from the
vertically stacked low pressure system currently over ia (as of 8z).

Expect rain and thunderstorm potential to increase through the
afternoon as the incoming occluded surface low shifts the front
slightly northward again. Given the deeper warm cloud depths and
high pwats still expecting the potential for heavy rain today into
Friday night. Flooding is possible in areas that receive more
intense copious amounts of rainfall. Severe weather is not
expected with any thunderstorms given the limited
shear instability. Highs today will be in the 70s. Lows will be in
the 60s, warmest south of us 30.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 443 am edt Thu jun 21 2018
as the occluding system moves in Friday into Sunday with the
associated upper level low, we'll see continued showers and
thunderstorms. While any strong-severe storms are expected to remain
south of our area, heavy rain still poses a main threat given the
anomalous moisture and deeper warm cloud depths. Flooding is a
possibility in areas that receive the greatest amounts intensities.

Gusty winds are possible in storms Friday afternoon. High
temperatures will remain in the 70s and low 80s, with lows in the
upper 50s and 60s.

Surface high pressure will build in underneath an amplified upper
level ridge for the start of next week (mon tue), leading to dry
conditions. Highs will rise again into the mid and upper 80s by
Tuesday afternoon, with increasing warm air moisture advection
moving into the west and bringing in chances of showers storms by
Tuesday night (or Wednesday morning depending on which model
solution you prefer).

Went conservatively as far as timing is concerned for pops tue
night, slowly introducing them by Wednesday morning and continuing
into Thu morning from west to east as a low level trough progresses
eastward across the great lakes region. Strong warm air moisture
advection will develop in tightening pressure gradient between high
pressure centered over the eastern seaboard and approaching the
approaching trough from the northern plains. Highs will be in the
mid-upper 80s once again, and humidity will be on the rise.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 636 am edt Thu jun 21 2018
mixed bag of flight categories for the start of the 12z TAF cycle.

Low stratus has persisted at ksbn while kfwa has improved toVFR.

The improvement at kfwa will likely be short lived as upstream
observations show MVFR ifr ceilings. Diminishing showers shouldn't
impact either terminal for the first couple of hours, but the next
round of convection will likely impact the terminals around 18z.

Have introduced a tempo group for these chances. Lowered ceilings
and visibility, as well as, erratic winds should be expected for
any thunderstorm which impacts the terminals directly.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Mcd
short term... Mcd
long term... Mcd
aviation... Cm
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 2 mi71 min NNE 2.9 G 6 67°F 1010.2 hPa (-0.3)
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 9 mi21 min NNW 12 G 18 68°F 68°F1 ft1009.3 hPa60°F
45168 24 mi21 min E 12 G 16 67°F 69°F1 ft1010 hPa59°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 25 mi31 min E 8 G 11 67°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 33 mi21 min E 8 G 11 67°F
45170 34 mi21 min ESE 12 G 16 68°F 68°F1 ft65°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 46 mi31 min SE 6 G 17 69°F 1009.1 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI5 mi78 minE 93.00 miFair with Haze67°F62°F84%1009.1 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI23 mi76 minE 75.00 miFog/Mist66°F63°F89%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E4E3NE4E6NE5CalmE4NE7NE5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E3CalmE5E6E7E9E10
1 day agoN44NE4
G16
E6E9E9E8NE7E7E6E6E6E7E5E3CalmE6E4NE5E5E4E5E6E4
2 days agoSW12
G20
SW16SW13SW15
G20
SW11W14
G19
W12W12
G20
NW11
G28
3W56CalmCalmCalmNW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.