Monday, August21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Plain, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 8:35PM Monday August 21, 2017 1:53 PM EDT (17:53 UTC) Moonrise 5:44AMMoonset 7:44PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 1045 Am Edt Mon Aug 21 2017
Rest of today..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through midnight, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots veering northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet in the afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Tuesday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 6 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed. The water temperature off michigan city is 75 degrees...and 74 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ043 Expires:201708212215;;727250 FZUS53 KIWX 211445 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1045 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ043-212215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Plain, MI
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location: 42.07, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 211658
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1258 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017

Synopsis
Issued at 1258 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017
warm and humid conditions will persist this afternoon with low
chances for thunderstorms south of us 24. Highs will reach the mid
to upper 80s. Chances for rain and thunderstorms will increase
tonight into Tuesday morning as a strong cold front moves through.

Drier and cooler air will then filter in behind this system
midweek through next weekend.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 346 am edt Mon aug 21 2017
remnant MCV and upper level trough as well as nose of theta e
ridge into the southwestern counties has allowed fairly vigorous
convection across far SW parts of the area. While most of the
storms have behaved, one cell over white county did see 65 dbz
briefly above the -20 c line, with a delayed report of hail just
over quarter size observed. Back edge of this area was finally
approaching the state line and should hopefully see a lull in
precip by 12z before focus shifts to upstream in iowa.

As noted, will have a brief dry period before remnants of
convection across iowa begin to work towards the region. Exact
trajectory of any associated lift and lingering convection remains
in question with potential for extensive cirrus shield to keep
heating somewhat limited (as well as eclipse viewing). Am hopeful
that there will be some thinning of the clouds for viewers this
afternoon, but this same thinning could allow for fairly unstable
conditions with little overall capping. Marginal risk of severe
exists across the area and seems prudent at this juncture. Did not
make many changes to pops other than slightly slowed onset with
above noted concerns warranting a cautious approach.

Additional showers and storms are expected to develop on a cold
front back across iowa and track east across the region overnight
into Tuesday. Have maintained likely pops in this period with
possible need to increase to categorical with focus of low level
jet into the area combined with deep moisture and some
instability. Severe weather could become a possibility tonight,
especially if convection can get organized to the west.

Long term (Tuesday through Sunday)
issued at 346 am edt Mon aug 21 2017
front will be clearing the area during the day on Tuesday.

Marginal risk for severe storms still in place, but thoughts are
main threat could exist further SE where outflow boundaries from
overnight convection may keep best focus.

Once the front is clear, not much left to write about as high
pressure takes control with dry and below normal conditions
through the remainder of the period.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1258 pm edt Mon aug 21 2017
vfr dry with ssw winds generally 6-12 knots expected this
afternoon as any convection likely fires south of the terminals
near a leftover outflow boundary. A shortwave over iowa should
migrate east into the area this evening into the early overnight
with chances for scattered showers storms. Better chances for
rain embedded thunder and restrictions arrive later tonight into
Tuesday morning as monsoonal moisture overspreads in advance of a
strong cold front.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Steinwedel
short term... Fisher
long term... Fisher
aviation... Steinwedel
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 2 mi54 min SW 8 G 9.9 78°F 1019.6 hPa (+0.6)
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 9 mi34 min W 7.8 G 9.7 75°F 74°F1 ft1018.6 hPa69°F
45168 24 mi34 min SW 7.8 G 12 74°F 74°F2 ft1018.5 hPa68°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 25 mi54 min SSW 9.9 G 11 74°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 33 mi54 min WSW 4.1 G 6 75°F 71°F
45170 34 mi34 min W 3.9 G 5.8 76°F 75°F1 ft72°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 46 mi45 min NW 4.1 G 8.9 77°F 1019.3 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI5 mi61 minW 128.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F70°F69%1018.3 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI23 mi58 minW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F71°F77%1019 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--W6SW8NW3W6W5CalmSE3S3S3SE3SE3CalmCalmS4S6SE4S4CalmS3S5SW4W10W10
1 day ago--44W7W73W3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmSE3SE4SE5S55
2 days ago--W13W11W11W8W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW55CalmCalm5NW564

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.