Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Plain, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 8:29PM Thursday April 18, 2019 12:26 PM EDT (16:26 UTC) Moonrise 6:43PMMoonset 5:57AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 1041 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2019
.gale watch in effect from late tonight through Friday evening...
Rest of today..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Numerous showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Gusts up to 35 knot gales. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 8 feet occasionally to 10 feet after midnight.
Friday..North wind 20 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 35 knot gales. Chance of showers in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 8 to 12 feet occasionally to 15 feet.
Friday night..North wind 15 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 6 to 10 feet occasionally to 13 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 43 degrees...and 44 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ043 Expires:201904182215;;113523 FZUS53 KIWX 181441 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1041 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ043-182215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Plain, MI
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location: 42.07, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 181358
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
958 am edt Thu apr 18 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 359 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area today, with
some locally heavy rainfall possible into this evening. Periods of
rain will continue overnight tonight through early Saturday
morning. Storm total rainfall amounts from today through Saturday
of 1 to 3 inches are possible. Conditions are expected to dry out
Saturday night into the second half of the weekend. Temperatures
will fall into the 40s and 50s this afternoon behind a cold front,
but highs are expected to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across
northwest ohio ahead of the front. Windy and colder conditions
return for Friday with highs only reaching the middle to upper
40s.

Update
Issued at 958 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
no updates this morning, but monitoring upstream trends for later
changes.

First area of rain and a few embedded storms has already pushed
through with second area now moving back into SW parts of the
area. Regional radar suggesting the outer fringes of the area of
rain was shrinking as best forcing with first wave may be waning.

However, across central illinois additional showers appeared to be
developing along and behind the strengthening baroclinic zone. Hi
res models lean in this direction with a further uptick in precip
through the morning. Will therefore leave high likely to cat pops
in place and monitor trends.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 359 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
hydrologic issues potential of heavy rain will continue to be the
primary short term forecast concern. Trend in much of
deterministic and ensemble solutions have shifted axis of heaviest
rain to the west, which could put local area into more favorable
placement for additional rounds of moderate rain into the first
half of the weekend.

An axis of strong pre-frontal low level moisture transport and approach
of small scale convectively enhanced vort MAX across central
illinois will allow convective complex across central illinois to
rapidly lift east-northeast across northern indiana early this
morning. Convection should become increasingly elevated in nature
as it spreads across the area, but some localized heavy
downpours ponding will be possible across northwest and portions
of north central indiana. With convection likely to become more
elevated with eastward extent, severe threat still appears to be
very low, with a low end potential of a few 40+ mph wind gusts
across northwest indiana as the complex moves through.

Large scale flow amplification to ensue today as a pair of upper level
pv anomalies across the upper midwest and lower ms valley
gradually begin to phase tonight. Evolution of this amplifying pattern
will take cold frontal boundary slowly across the area this
afternoon with periods of showers and isolated-scattered
thunderstorms continuing. Amplification of pattern and slower
frontal progression across the east lends to slightly lower
confidence in precip coverage early this afternoon across NW ohio,
but frontal precip should gradually overspread NW ohio south
central lower mi later this afternoon. Precipitable waters of
1.25-1.5 inches, warm cloud depths increasing to around 10k feet,
and weakening upwind propagation vectors due to strengthening low
level jet will yield a continued concern for locally heavy
rainfall this afternoon early evening. Temps across the west will
fall this afternoon behind the front, while areas across the far
east may warm into the lower 70s. It will be breezy windy today,
particularly across the east where sfc temps warm into the 70s
with some gusts to 30-40 mph possible for a time.

Main change for this forecast cycle was to account for what
appears to be a growing trend in ensemble deterministic data of a
slightly faster phasing of the two aforementioned PV anomalies,
resulting in a slower and farther west track of primary upper
level low. An upper level jet streak digging south from the
northern plains also appears to be favoring a more westward track
with this more consolidated system. For tonight, smaller scale but
vigorous trough rotating through parent upper trough will allow
frontal wave to develop along this baroclinic zone with renewed
moderate rain spreading back northward overnight into early Friday
morning.

Rainfall amounts from this morning through early Friday morning of
1 to 2 inches are expected with some locally higher amounts
possible. Have opted to hold off on flood watch headline at this
time with a possibility that heaviest rainfall tonight may occur
to the east of areas which receive heaviest rainfall this morning.

Guidance is also still struggling in resolving details regarding
digging upper jet PV anomaly phasing which will have impact on
location of favored axis of heaviest rainfall. Based on recent
trends, it is possible heaviest rainfall axis may need to be
further shifted westward.

Long term (Friday through Wednesday)
issued at 359 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
rain showers will likely be ongoing Friday morning, but should taper
during the afternoon as frontal wave departs to the east. Yet
another round of rain is appearing increasingly likely Friday
night into early Saturday as trowal matures and deformation
forcing persists across the area. Exactly where preferred axis of
moderate rain sets up in this final round of rain showers is of
lower confidence, but could very well need to monitor for more
heightened flood concerns at this time given likelihood of
moderate heavy rain during the preceding 48 hours. With westward
track trend, have also followed blended idea of cooler highs in
the 40s for Friday with breezy windy conditions.

Rain showers should taper by Saturday evening as upper low finally
pulls off to the east and flow deamplification occurs. Pattern
still appears to be somewhat active for mon-wed as frontal
boundary wavers across the area in response to approach of broader
western CONUS trough. Medium range models do indicate some
potential that this trough may become divorced from main
westerlies across mid lower ms valley toward next weekend, with
potential of continued unsettled weather.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Friday morning)
issued at 644 am edt Thu apr 18 2019
rain and embedded thunderstorms currently moving into the area as
expected with strong surge of low level moisture and midlevel
shortwave approaching. Lightning coverage is significantly lower
across northern indiana with bulk of instability bottled up over
central and southern portions of the state. Still enough potential
to warrant at least a vcts mention through late morning though.

Some potential for a stray storm at kfwa during the afternoon but
expect a relative lull in precip and confidence in timing coverage
is too low for a blanket thunder mention. Ceilings will hover
around 1 kft at both terminals though as CAA arrives and develops
a strong, moisture-laden inversion. Low MVFR likely and ifr
possible through the evening and overnight.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... Gale watch from late tonight through Friday evening for lmz043-
046.

Update... Fisher
synopsis... Marsili
short term... Marsili
long term... Marsili
aviation... Agd
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 2 mi87 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 50°F 1002.7 hPa (+1.0)
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 25 mi47 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 45°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 33 mi37 min Calm G 1 49°F 49°F
45170 34 mi37 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 46°F 43°F1 ft46°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 46 mi47 min Calm G 2.9 49°F 1002 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI5 mi34 minVar 31.25 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist52°F50°F93%1000.8 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI23 mi31 minNW 42.50 miLight Rain51°F49°F94%1001 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE12
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1 day agoW9W13
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N4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E7E8
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2 days agoW12W11NW10W9W8W83CalmSE4SE4SE5SE3SE5SE4SE5S8S9S9S9S8
G16
S9S7SW12
G22
SW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.