Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fair Plain, MI
May 7, 2024 1:44 PM EDT (17:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:30 AM Sunset 8:51 PM Moonrise 5:02 AM Moonset 7:47 PM |
LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi-michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 1040 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
This afternoon - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers with Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 48 degrees.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 48 degrees.
LMZ005
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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 071729 AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 129 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe storms are likely mid afternoon into mid evening. The primary threat with any severe storms that occur include damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Confidence is high.
- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible again Wednesday evening, mainly south of US 24. Localized heavy rain and flooding is the primary threat but a few storms could contain hail. Confidence is low.
- Cooler with chances for showers later this week into the weekend.
Highs Friday into Sunday will be in the 60s. Otherwise temperatures will warm back into the mid 60s to mid 70s next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Post convective outflow bubble from this morning sharpening effective warm frontal zone from nrn IL esewd through cntrl IN and into wrn OH. This will mix further north into evening over nrn IN and will yield a certain tornado risk given enlarging low level shear across this boundary. Otherwise growing instability wedge across the warm sector back west is primed to initiate convection along/ahead of cold front pushing through wrn IL attm with additional isolated storms out in front through the warm sector also possible late this afternoon. Given degree of expected instability in combo with enhancing deep layer shear supercells are likely with primary sig hail risk and attendant enhanced tor risk with discrete storms interacting with the warm front.
Storms clear quickly far east by mid evening and then quiet overnight within post cold frontal bubble. This is short lived however as nrn plains upper flow wobbles east into the midwest Wed and induces new sfc frontal wave across the mid MS valley. While track of this is expected to hold south fairly robust warm advection aloft expected to spread as far north as the US 24 corridor with localized heavy rain far south Wed evening and perhaps some marginal hail risk with stronger storms. Thereafter elongating upper trough hangs back through the srn lakes with a risk for showers at times through Saturday along with quite cool temps.
Upper pattern breaks back warmer yet continued unsettled longer term by mid next week.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Behind this morning's band of showers and thunderstorms, enough convergence and forcing within a still moisture atmospheric column has been modeled to produce additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Models actually do create additional instability this afternoon behind the morning convection allowing for the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms. It appears the timing of thunderstorms will be 20z to 00z this evening with all threats on the table with any thunderstorm. It is interesting that cold advection waits until this evening, after the passage of the storms and likely holds off widespread MVFR CIGs until at least that point.
Although patchy MVFR and perhaps IFR conditions will be possible within the stronger thunderstorms with heavy rain reducing VISBY.
There is some indication that we clear out after this evening's storms, but the dry air should be enough to keep fog at bay overnight.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 129 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Severe storms are likely mid afternoon into mid evening. The primary threat with any severe storms that occur include damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Confidence is high.
- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible again Wednesday evening, mainly south of US 24. Localized heavy rain and flooding is the primary threat but a few storms could contain hail. Confidence is low.
- Cooler with chances for showers later this week into the weekend.
Highs Friday into Sunday will be in the 60s. Otherwise temperatures will warm back into the mid 60s to mid 70s next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Post convective outflow bubble from this morning sharpening effective warm frontal zone from nrn IL esewd through cntrl IN and into wrn OH. This will mix further north into evening over nrn IN and will yield a certain tornado risk given enlarging low level shear across this boundary. Otherwise growing instability wedge across the warm sector back west is primed to initiate convection along/ahead of cold front pushing through wrn IL attm with additional isolated storms out in front through the warm sector also possible late this afternoon. Given degree of expected instability in combo with enhancing deep layer shear supercells are likely with primary sig hail risk and attendant enhanced tor risk with discrete storms interacting with the warm front.
Storms clear quickly far east by mid evening and then quiet overnight within post cold frontal bubble. This is short lived however as nrn plains upper flow wobbles east into the midwest Wed and induces new sfc frontal wave across the mid MS valley. While track of this is expected to hold south fairly robust warm advection aloft expected to spread as far north as the US 24 corridor with localized heavy rain far south Wed evening and perhaps some marginal hail risk with stronger storms. Thereafter elongating upper trough hangs back through the srn lakes with a risk for showers at times through Saturday along with quite cool temps.
Upper pattern breaks back warmer yet continued unsettled longer term by mid next week.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Behind this morning's band of showers and thunderstorms, enough convergence and forcing within a still moisture atmospheric column has been modeled to produce additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Models actually do create additional instability this afternoon behind the morning convection allowing for the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms. It appears the timing of thunderstorms will be 20z to 00z this evening with all threats on the table with any thunderstorm. It is interesting that cold advection waits until this evening, after the passage of the storms and likely holds off widespread MVFR CIGs until at least that point.
Although patchy MVFR and perhaps IFR conditions will be possible within the stronger thunderstorms with heavy rain reducing VISBY.
There is some indication that we clear out after this evening's storms, but the dry air should be enough to keep fog at bay overnight.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI | 2 mi | 45 min | SE 1.9G | 64°F | 29.63 | |||
| 45168 | 24 mi | 45 min | SE 12G | 58°F | 51°F | 1 ft | 29.64 | 54°F |
| SVNM4 - South Haven, MI | 25 mi | 45 min | E 14G | 61°F | ||||
| MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN | 33 mi | 45 min | SE 11G | 67°F | 29.54 | 63°F | ||
| BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN | 46 mi | 65 min | S 5.1G | 69°F | 29.60 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBEH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN RGNL,MI | 5 sm | 52 min | SE 07 | 8 sm | Overcast | 64°F | 61°F | 88% | 29.63 | |
| KLWA SOUTH HAVEN AREA RGNL,MI | 23 sm | 30 min | SE 07 | 7 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 63°F | 61°F | 94% | 29.63 |
Northern Indiana, IN,
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