Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilmette, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:21PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 1:04 AM CST (07:04 UTC) Moonrise 12:03PMMoonset 10:19PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 901 Pm Cst Tue Dec 11 2018
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of light snow and light rain toward Sunrise. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 3 to 5 ft by morning.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 20 kt becoming southwest 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Chance of rain, snow and light freezing rain in the morning. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ741 Expires:201812121100;;659121 FZUS53 KLOT 120301 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 901 PM CST Tue Dec 11 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-121100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmette, IL
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location: 42.08, -87.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 120444
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1044 pm cst Tue dec 11 2018

Update
804 pm cst
no big changes to the forecast for tonight into Wednesday,
including the current winter weather advisory in place for
portions of northern il late tonight into Wednesday morning.

Still monitoring the potential for an area of precip to swing
through portions of northern il late tonight, ahead of mid level
vort lobe and WAA wing. Start time still looks to be in the 3 am
to 6 am time frame, and then continuing through mid to late
morning. Varying precip types of freezing rain and snow still
appear likely, given the ongoing warming aloft, surface temps
around freezing, and then returning colder air quickly pushing in
early Wednesday morning. In this setup, still expect of a mix of
light snow or light freezing rain before transitioning to all snow
for a few hour window. The anticipated light snow with a light
glaze will provide some slippery conditions across the advisory
area. Areas outside of the advisory area could see this wintry
mix, however lack of better focus and warming surface temps
tonight should limit this potential.

Rodriguez

Short term
247 pm cst
through Wednesday...

the main concern in the short term is a fast moving low pressure
system that will bring a wave of wintry precipitation to northern
illinois tonight and Wednesday morning. Thermal profiles appear
favorable for the precipitation to start as light snow or freezing
rain around the 3 am time frame, along and west of i-39. Surface
temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 20s as
precipitation begins. The precipitation is expected to expand
eastward and transition to all snow for at least a few hours late
tonight into Wednesday morning, with snow accumulation possibly up
to an inch. Light icing prior to the snow could produce a glaze
of ice on untreated travel surfaces, setting the stage for
hazardous travel for the Wednesday morning commute. The areas
mainly impacted appear to be north of i-80, including the lake
county portion of the northern chicago metro, where a winter
weather advisory has been issued from 3 am through noon Wednesday.

The consensus of the short-term guidance points toward a loss of
ice crystals above the precipitating cloud layer, which would
cause any light snow to transition to freezing drizzle Wednesday
morning. That could increase the glaze of ice, and aggravate the
hazardous travel. Eventually, surface temperatures will climb
above freezing across the forecast area, changing any freezing
drizzle to drizzle. Areas along lake michigan could see drizzle
linger into the afternoon, otherwise dry conditions are expected
for most areas Wed afternoon. High temps look to reach the mid to
upper 30s before sunset approaches.

Shimon

Long term
247 pm cst
Wednesday night through Tuesday...

the period of dry conditions in the extended forecast will be
short-lived, as a larger storm system in the southern stream
progresses beyond the rockies to southern oklahoma by 6 pm
Wednesday evening. From there, it will slowly progress through
southern arkansas on Thursday, as a cold front inverted trough
pushes across illinois during that time. Isentropic lift will
increase Wednesday night and Thursday morning, helping to saturate
the lower levels of the atmosphere. Rain showers are forecast to
develop Thursday afternoon southwest of a line from rockford to
kankakee, then overspread the remainder of northern illinois
Thursday evening. Portions of north-central il, north and west of
rockford, could see spotty freezing rain Thursday night into
Friday morning. However, better chances of icing from freezing
rain should remain to the northwest of the our cwa. The cold
front inverted trough will push east of illinois by Friday
afternoon, bring a steady decrease to the precipitation chances.

Any rain that lingers Friday night southeast of i-55 will
transition to light snow. A dusting of snow accumulation could
occur, but impacts would be lowered due to snow falling on warmer
rain-wettened surfaces. All rain snow should end Saturday morning,
as high pressure advances into illinois. An extended period of dry
conditions should occur from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday. A
weakening cold frontal passage on Sunday looks to remain dry, due
to limited moisture. The main result of that front will be
slightly cooler temperatures to start that work week.

Shimon

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

primary aviation forecast concern continues to be with the
potential for a period of mixed rain snow freezing rain Wednesday
morning. Associated MVFR ifr ceilings and gusty west-southwest
winds are also concerns during the day.

Surface low pressure continues to develop across ia late this
evening, in association with an upper level disturbance moving
east from the plains. The low is forecast to track across southern
wi during the day Wednesday. Considerable dry air exists in low
levels as indicated by 00z upper air soundings around the region,
and model guidance has depicted a drier trend with this system
across northern il in. Precipitation, which would likely be a mix
of rain snow or freezing rain, does look to be of short duration,
focused on the 12-15z period. Winds shifting south ahead of the
low overnight will help temperatures warm above freezing across
much of the chicago area early Wednesday, which suggests freezing
precip threat is fairly low. Greatest potential for freezing rain
would likely be at rfd, with precip duration again being short.

Could be a brief period of ifr ceilings with precip early, but
cigs are generally expected to remain MVFR... And these may persist
through much of the afternoon.

Winds will shift west-southwest as the low passes by to the north
Wednesday morning, with these winds becoming gusty around 20 kts.

Ratzer

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Winter weather advisory... Ilz003-ilz004-ilz005-ilz006-ilz008-
ilz010-ilz011-ilz012... 3 am Wednesday to noon Wednesday.

In... None.

Lm... None.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 8 mi124 min SE 16 35°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi34 min SSE 12 G 15 36°F 33°F
CNII2 17 mi19 min SE 6 G 9.9 32°F 30°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 20 mi84 min SE 15 G 17 35°F
JAKI2 22 mi124 min SSE 5.1 G 8.9 35°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 26 mi34 min SE 5.1 G 8 32°F 1013.9 hPa30°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 35 mi64 min SE 16 G 19 36°F 1014.2 hPa (-2.7)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 43 mi24 min SSE 8 G 11 33°F 1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL9 mi72 minESE 55.00 miFair with Haze34°F28°F79%1015.4 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL11 mi73 minSE 65.00 miFog/Mist32°F28°F85%1014.8 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL20 mi71 minSE 86.00 miFog/Mist32°F26°F79%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW7SW7SW7SW6SW5SW5W66W7W7W4W53CalmE6E4CalmE3E3E3E4SE4SE5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm3W4SW4W9SW7W11
G15
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm35W4NW7NW4NW3N6NW7NW4NW3CalmNW6NW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.