Tuesday, June25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sleepy Hollow, IL

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:34PM Tuesday June 25, 2019 12:54 PM CDT (17:54 UTC) Moonrise 1:10AMMoonset 1:09PM Illumination 43% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 908 Am Cdt Tue Jun 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 20 to 25 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..Southwest winds 20 to 25 kt early diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 ft.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ740 Expires:201906252115;;055776 FZUS53 KLOT 251408 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 908 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-252115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sleepy Hollow, IL
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location: 42.1, -88.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 251526
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1026 am cdt Tue jun 25 2019

Update
1020 am cdt
forecast is generally on track for the remainder of the morning.

For this afternoon, have some concerns regarding the impacts of an
old mvc currently over eastern iowa and moving quickly eastward.

Currently, this feature is generating some isolated showers. As it
marches east across NRN il in, it will be moving through a weakly
unstable environment and may generate some isolated showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon.

Short term
217 am cdt
through Wednesday...

the primary concern and forecast challenge during the short term
period will be the chances for any strong thunderstorms later
today and this evening.

In the wake of yesterday evenings short wave trough, much of the
region will reside within a quasi-zonal belt of modest
westerlies. Within this flow regime several minor perturbations
are expected to shift from the plains eastward across the area,
and these could play a role in convective development over our
area later today. At the surface, a cold front will gradually sag
southward over the upper midwest and great lakes region through
the day. Ahead of this front, a very warm (temps in the 80s) and
increasingly humid airmass will set up beneath of corridor of
steepening mid-level lapse rates later today. This will in turn
support some moderate to strong instability, with MLCAPE values
in excess of 2,000 j kg, across portions of the mid-mississippi
valley. While this will be the case, capping and the lack of good
large scale support could limit the coverage of thunderstorms over
our area later today. For this reason, the overall confidence on
storms locally later today is on the low side. Nevertheless, any
storms that do develop will do so in an environment supportive of
severe storms.

There will be a small chance of a few isolated to widely scattered
storms this afternoon, primarily over northern il as the
perturbed westerly flow aloft shifts over the area. Otherwise, it
appears that the primary focus for more robust convective
development may remain to our west-southwest over far southern ia
and adjacent areas of northern mo, northeastern ks and portions
of ne. This is the area where frontal convergence will be more
substantial. Once these storms develop over these areas late this
afternoon, it is possible that they may develop eastward into
portions of il this evening as the low-level jet and warm air
advection ramps up a bit over the area. Again any of these storms
would have a risk of being severe, with strong wind gusts, hail
and locally heavy downpours. The storms then should wane
overnight.

Wednesday will be another warm and rather humid day across the
area. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 80s area-
wide, though an afternoon lake breeze could limit the warmth
slightly near the lake. An unstable environment will once again
be with us during the afternoon on Wednesday, but with little
focus for convective development, the coverage of any storms may
remain fairly limited.

Kjb

Long term
Wednesday night through Tuesday...

241 am... Primary forecast concern and challenge is upper ridge
placement and associated high temps and convective chances.

The end of the week through early next week is looking very warm
and humid with highs each day in the mid upper 80s with dewpoints
from the mid 60s to lower 70s. The 00z gfs ECMWF build the ridge
into the western great lakes and possibly across the entire area
by Saturday. Convection that forms to the northwest will have the
potential to move southeast into the CWA along the edge of the
ridge. Timing is difficult but there does appear to be some
consensus for Thursday night into Friday morning. If this were to
occur it may not have a large affect on high temps on Friday
unless additional afternoon thunderstorms redeveloped Friday
afternoon. As the trends stand now... Saturday may end up being dry
with temps possibly into the lower 90s but confidence is low and
maintained blend temps in the upper 80s. In the absence of any
outflow boundaries... Forecast soundings would suggest surface
winds would be strong enough to prevent a lake breeze Friday and
Saturday.

The forecast becomes more uncertain Sunday Monday as the models
are in fair agreement with high pressure building southeast across
the eastern great lakes region. This would push a cold front
across the area in the Sunday timeframe which would probably lead
to a period of thunderstorms and then drier cooler easterly flow
off the lake. This solution is currently not depicted in the
forecast blend and its possible that the upper ridge does build
farther east as previous model runs had shown. Thus confidence is
very low. Cms

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

forecast concerns include...

gusty southwest winds today.

Chance of isolated thunderstorms late afternoon and a chance for
more organized thunderstorms overnight.

Current forecast is on track with no significant changes needed.

Southwest winds will increase through the morning with frequent
gusts to arnd 25kt range and some occasional higher gusts to arnd
30 kt possible mid late afternoon. Winds will diminish with
sunset.

Convective chances are quite uncertain for this afternoon and
overnight tonight. A weakening sfc trough cold front sagging
south across into NRN il today may allow some isolated scattered
activity to develop this afternoon INVOF the il terminals.

However, the high res guidance lacks inconsistent in timing and
coverage, thus confidence is to low to include a mention in the
tafs at this time. There remains a better chance of thunderstorms
developing over ia later today or this evening. Some of the latest
guidance is trending a little more due east with the track of a
convective complex that could be north enough to impact the
terminals. So, have introduced a prob30 for tsra for late tonight.

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Nearshore waters
until 10 pm Tuesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45186 32 mi35 min SSW 7.8 G 12 71°F 57°F
45174 34 mi35 min SW 9.7 G 14 68°F 1 ft1011.1 hPa
FSTI2 35 mi115 min W 19 82°F
45187 38 mi35 min SW 5.8 G 9.7 70°F 54°F
OKSI2 38 mi115 min N 1.9 G 5.1 84°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 40 mi35 min SSW 16 G 17 79°F 59°F
CNII2 40 mi40 min S 9.9 G 12 81°F 57°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 42 mi55 min SW 6 G 12 79°F 1010.5 hPa (-0.3)
JAKI2 44 mi115 min W 8.9 G 16 81°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 47 mi61 min SSW 9.9 G 13 79°F 1011.9 hPa60°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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NE8
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL12 mi63 minSW 1010.00 miFair82°F62°F51%1011.2 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL21 mi63 minWSW 12 G 2110.00 miFair83°F57°F43%1011.1 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL22 mi64 minWSW 13 G 2010.00 miA Few Clouds81°F59°F47%1011.1 hPa

Wind History from DPA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW9SW12SW12W20
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W12SW9SW8SW7SW7SW6W5SW4SW8SW6S4SW8SW9SW8SW10SW15
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1 day agoS15
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S15S6SE8SE6S4S3SE7SE3S5S6S5S4S3SW3S8S6SW6SW9SW8SW11W12
G25
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2 days agoSE8
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SE10SE6E4E5SE7SE5SE8SE8SE9SE8SE6NE5E7E8SE14
G20
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S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.