Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Downsville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 4:44PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 4:41 AM EST (09:41 UTC) Moonrise 12:36PMMoonset 10:40PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Downsville, NY
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location: 42.11, -75     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 140550
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1250 am est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
A departing storm system will bring much colder weather through
Wednesday, leading to areas of lake effect snow, mainly along
and just south of the new york thruway corridor. It will be very
cold and quiet Wednesday night into Thursday morning, then
another storm will impact the region Thursday afternoon through
Friday, bringing accumulating snow and a wintry mix

Near term through today
9 pm update... Cold air advection is strengthening across the
area as the upper level trough moves in. 850mb temperatures are
down to around -8 to -10c at this time, with 925mb temperatures
dropping toward -5c. The lake effect machine is just starting to
get going this evening, with the latest mrms 0.5 deg composite
showing ample snow shower activity occurring upstream off of
lake superior, huron, and georgian bay. Closer to home, the
latest 0.5 deg loop from kbgm is also showing some convective
looking snow showers rolling off lake ontario along an
approximate 290 degree flow. These intermittent snow showers are
affecting onondaga, madison, S oneida and otsego counties at
this time. Elsewhere, there are just some scattered flurries or
light snow showers around. Surface temperatures have fallen back
into the upper 20s to lower 30s as of 9pm, except mid to upper
30s in NE pa. Overnight lows look on track to reach the lower to
mid-20s in most locations.

Latest mesoscale cam models are indicating continued snow
showers through the first half of the overnight, mainly along
and north of geneva--cortland--norwich and oneonta. Could see
and inch or two of accumulation prior to 1 am tonight from these
showers. The real action appears to develop during the late
overnight period into Wednesday morning. This is when model
soundings indicate the best omega becomes collocated withing at
least the bottom half of the snow growth zone... And we see less
shear, and better upstream lake to lake connections. The
favorable period is rather short lived... From about 4am to
noon... But during this period some of the latest guidance (the
3km NAM nest) is indicating a very intense lake effect snow band
setting up on a 300 degree flow off of lake ontario. The cmc
regional model was a little less robust with the snow band, but
overall had a similar scenario playing out. Therefore, there is
the potential for a heavy lake effect snow band (1-2"+ per hour
rates) to develop and impact west-central onondaga county into
sw portions of madison county near the morning rush hour period.

This snow band is progged to be close to the syracuse metro
area... Especially the west side. Some of the highest snow totals
from this event (8-12") may end up being across western onondaga
county... Near jordan, warners, camilus, fairmount and even down
toward cedarville and la fayette. Downtown syracuse looks to
receive 6 to 9 inches by the time the event winds down
Wednesday afternoon, with 5 to 8 inches out toward east
syracuse, de witt and fayetteville. Again, the highest totals in
madison counties should be across the western portion of the
county near chittenango, cazenovia and deruyter, where 5 to 8
inches may also accumulate. Overall, confidence is fairly high
in this forecast. Left the current winter storm warnings and
advisories in place with only minor adjustments to timing and
amounts. Much of the n. Oneida zone may struggle to receive
advisory level snowfall... But far western portions of this zone
may reach criteria, therefore left the advisory in place.

For the rest of the forecast area, outside of the lake effect
snow zones, expect partly cloudy skies with just scattered
flurries around tonight and Wednesday. Wednesday will be cold
with highs 25-35.The lake snow looks to taper off rather
quickly Wednesday afternoon as high pressure builds into the
area. This area of high pressure will provide mainly clear skies
and ideal radiational cooling conditions Wednesday night. With a
very cold canadian air mass overhead, and dewpoints in the
single digits to low teens... Expect overnight lows to be frigid
for this time of year... Dropping into the upper single digits
and teens areawide.

Confidence continues to grow for a significant winter storm to
impact our forecast area Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning with periods of snow, sleet and freezing rain likely.

Previous discussion below...

230 pm update...

today in a transition from the synoptic rain snow this morning
to the lake effect snow tonight into tomorrow. A deepening
surface low is over new england. Moisture extends back into our
area providing some rain and drizzle. This is moving east but
lake effect snow is already setting up in western and northern
ny. This will move into our northern zones late this afternoon
and continue into Wednesday night.

One of the better setups this fall for lake effect. It is a
short period but snow should be intense late tonight and
Wednesday morning across the greater syracuse area spreading
southeast into madison county. Several models have a strong
single band extending from lake superior across huron and
ontario into syracuse. The band should be stable and in the same
area for a good 6 hours 9 to 15z (4 to 10 am). Flow is cyclonic
and aligned at low levels at 300 degrees during this period.

850mb temperatures fall to -14c providing instability. The
dendrite zone is centered on the MAX lift around 5k feet.

Moisture is decent and up to about 9k ft. Snowfall rates will
approach an inch an hour. 5 to 10 inches of snow is possible in
onondaga and madison counties with lesser amounts in surrounding
counties.

Lake effect continues but winds down late Wednesday afternoon
and evening as high pressure at the surface builds in with
sinking air. Warmer air slowly pushes northeast with the high
and also ahead of the next storm. Wednesday night mostly light
snow showers and flurries in cny. Some clearing early then
clouds come in from the southwest late.

For temperatures continued below normal with 20s tonight, upper
20s to mid 30s Wednesday, and 5 to 20 Wednesday night.

Short term tonight through 6 pm Thursday
Model consensus suggests the potential for a significant early
season winter storm beginning late in the day Thursday through much
of Friday. Temperature profiles are marginal across the area for a
wintry mix, particularly for nepa, the western catskills and
portions of the ny southern tier, while colder air seems more
established further north and west for the majority of precipitation
to be snow. High pressure retreating into new england will maintain
low level cold air with precipitation developing initially as snow,
followed by a warm intrusion aloft with sleet and some freezing rain
moving in overnight. The situation gets tricky early Friday morning
as the warm nose aloft slides in nearly at the same time as the best
dynamic height falls associated with rapidly deepening coastal low.

This will lead to a trade-off in thermally driven versus dynamically
driven precip types due to varying precip intensity. The latest nam
and ECMWF suggest a potential for several inches of snow sleet
mixture in central ny. Positioning of exact areas of heaviest
precipitation will remain in flux for the next couple of days as
system evolves. Timing in the models suggest precipitation moves
away later Friday afternoon. The northern areas will then come under
the influence of a response from lake ontario.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Some potential for lake effect snows continues into the weekend as
flow remains broadly cyclonic aloft with sufficiently cold, unstable
air pouring across lake ontario through Saturday. Diffuse higher
pressure as seen on the ECMWF may stifle the lake snow showers by
Sunday, however, GFS and canadian models diverge on bringing in an
upper level disturbance with a ribbon of moisture from the ohio
valley for some broad scale light snow. Given the complicated nature
of this entire week forecast, have taken a broad approach to these
outer periods with generally a chance of snow showers across upstate
ny and mainly flurries for nepa through Monday. Right now, Tuesday
seems to be the least chance for precipitation in the area.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
06z update...

intermittent restrictions during this TAF period will rest on
details of lake effect snow showers, during otherwiseVFR
conditions. Winds will generally veer from wnw to nnw with time
including gusts of 15-20 knots, which will redirect individual
bands. Ksyr and briefly krme will experience fuel alternate
required to ifr conditions, though with the band shifting
southward and thus becoming more fluctuating in visibility
towards dawn for ksyr while leaving krme altogether. Visibility
near airport mins are no longer figured for ksyr due to the
southward trend in the higher resolution models. Brief fuel
alternate ceilings and flurries will reach towards kith 10z-14z
but probably only achieving higher end MVFR for kbgm due to
presence of drier air. During the day, lake effect will have a
harder time holding together as drier air begins to dominate,
though brief flurry MVFR ceiling could still occur for the ny
terminals at times.VFR all terminals by evening, with northwest
to north winds slackening and becoming light variable.

Outlook...

late Wednesday night through early afternoon Thursday...VFR.

Late Thursday afternoon through Friday... Significant restrictions
as a large system brings snow-to-wintry mix across the region.

Friday night through Saturday... Intermittent restrictions from
lake effect snow showers; mainly ksyr-krme but possibly others.

Sunday... Weak passing wave with possible light snow restrictions.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for nyz009-
017-037-044-045.

Winter storm warning until 7 pm est this evening for nyz018-
036.

Synopsis... Tac
near term... Mjm tac
short term... Jab
long term... Jab
aviation... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 58 mi71 min 34°F 1022 hPa25°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monticello, Sullivan County International Airport, NY30 mi45 minNW 13 G 229.00 miLight Snow28°F18°F66%1023 hPa

Wind History from MSV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE4N3NW5NW7NW7NW8NW10NW8NW12
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1 day agoCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmSE6S8S5S4SE4SE5SE3SE4E3--E4E3CalmNE3NE3
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NW10W8W4W4W4N3CalmCalmN4CalmCalmNE3N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
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Wed -- 12:12 AM EST     0.66 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:15 AM EST     3.07 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:13 PM EST     1.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:31 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:22 PM EST     3.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:36 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.81.422.52.93.132.51.91.41.21.11.21.72.42.93.33.53.53.12.31.71.2

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
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Wed -- 12:42 AM EST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:45 AM EST     3.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:31 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:43 PM EST     1.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:52 PM EST     3.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:36 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.71.11.82.42.93.23.332.31.71.31.21.21.52.22.83.33.63.73.52.92.11.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.