Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Downsville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 8:26PM Thursday May 23, 2019 1:40 PM EDT (17:40 UTC) Moonrise 11:46PMMoonset 8:33AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Downsville, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.11, -75     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbgm 231728
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
128 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
With the approach of a front, thunderstorms will become likely,
some possibly severe with damaging winds and large hail. Cooler
weather returns Friday, with gusty winds and light spotty
showers mainly in central new york. Another round of
thunderstorms may occur late Saturday.

Near term through Friday
1 pm update... Severe thunderstorm watch 217 that included our
western zones in cny was cancelled. The complex of storms that
produced isolated wind damage downwind of lake erie mid morning
has steadily weakened as it approached the forecast area.

Instability downstream of this line is weak and predominately
elevated (except maybe in the wyoming valley) which is not
conducive for severe storms through early this afternoon. Our
attention shifts to the second round of storms that is expected
to develop mid to late afternoon. Early afternoon visible
satellite imagery shows an area of CU building up over the
eastern great lakes- this is likely where convection will become
focused. The peak severe storm threat appears to be 4-8 pm this
afternoon from approximately route 17, southward (far southern
tier of ny and nepa). A distinct veering wind profile in the
low-levels beneath strengthening westerly flow in mid levels
support a mixed convective mode of discrete supercells and
multi-cellular clusters. Debris clouds from the first round of
showers and storms have limited our daytime heating thus far.

This adds to the uncertainty regarding how much the atmosphere
will able to destabilize over the next few hours and if the
instability will become surface based for the next round of
convection. Accordingly, the severe threat, especially wrt to
damaging winds and tornadoes is still highly conditional.

950 am update... First watch has been issued for out ny zones
west of i-81. Updated the grids to reflect the currents and add
the enhanced wording for the watch area.

415 am update... Main concern is potential for severe
thunderstorms this afternoon to early evening. The storm
prediction center includes the whole region in at least a slight
risk for severe thunderstorms, with enhanced risk across much
of pennsylvania including wyoming valley scranton wilkes-
barre poconos areas. Damaging winds, large hail, and even
isolated tornadoes may occur with the strongest storms.

Upper ridge axis has already shunted to our east, exposing our
region to a wave-riddled west-southwest flow aloft ahead of an
upper trough. In addition to brining in increasing moisture,
mid to upper level instability is also advecting into the
region. A lead shortwave already brought in a band of showers
and embedded thunder overnight, now settling over the poconos
prior to dawn.

Unlike the event we had last Sunday, which in itself did manage
some severe thunderstorms, this potential event has much
stronger forcing. 500mb height falls of 60-100 meters are
indicated in the models this afternoon, as a pair of waves
carry across the region. Models disagree on which wave will be
dominant, but most focus on the second one, that is set to carry
through roughly 2pm to 9pm from northwest to southeast. The
concern is that an elevated mixed layer will may yield
significant instability lapse rates aloft with that second wave
as well as a lot of shear. 0-6km shear gets past 60 knots by
late afternoon, 0-3km bulk shear values even approach 50 knots
which is worrisome in terms of bow echo potential. Helicity has
trended somewhat lower yet still manages 150-250 m2 s2 which is
still plenty enough to warrant a concern for isolated
tornadoes.

Biggest question mark will be in the mesoscale; that is,
whether the midday wave leave enough cloud debris and negative
vorticity to hold back convection like indicated in earlier hrrr
runs. The hrrr is stronger with the midday wave yet latest runs
are trending more towards the rest of convection allowing
models in generating new convection with the second wave.

Convective available potential energy should easily exceed 500
j kg and potentially near 1000 j kg especially for some of our
pennsylvania zones; with again timing of individual waves and
cloud debris playing an uncertainty factor. With the elevated
mixed layer and height falls, however, surface heating may not
be as important as it was with our most recent event. Highs will
be mainly 70s yet dewpoints will climb to around 60 degrees or
so. All told, it remains uncertain for how widespread this event
will be, but confidence has increased that at least a couple
higher end storms supercells could occur within our region. Pay
close attention to the weather today.

In the wake of afternoon-early evening convection, with upper
trough pivoting into the area tonight we may see an additional
line of showers isolated thunder drop primarily into the central
ny zones later this evening. However, things wind down
overnight, with cold air advection dipping temperatures to lows
of lower to mid 50s.

On Friday, with chilly air aloft there will be plenty of mixing
with gusty northwesterly wind in cyclonic flow. Highs will be in
the 60s except for near 70 in lower elevations of northeast pa.

Spotty light showers could still occur in the morning to early
afternoon mainly in parts of central new york.

Short term Friday night through Sunday
Friday night: high pressure is expected to build into the region
keeping conditions dry. Clear skies and light winds will allow for
radiational cooling with some spots falling into the 40's.

Saturday through Sunday: a warm front will likely move through the
region on Saturday and be followed by a cold frontal boundary and
associated low pressure system moving through the area Saturday
night into Sunday. This looks to be another fairly dynamic system
but with conditional instability. Right now fairly good model and
ensemble agreement is in place to center the best shower and
thunderstorm chances Saturday night with moisture in place.

Temperatures in the warm sector should warm into the 60's at night
and 70's in the day. The cold front looks to slow down over the
region in response to a strong mid-level ridge in the southeast.

Some potential is present for a few lingering showers or
thunderstorms but the coverage looks to be fairly limited and
highest in NE pa s.Catskills.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
Sunday night through Monday night: high pressure builds in and moves
the region with another calmer period in time for the holiday. Still
pleasant temperature wise with lows in the 50's and highs in the 70's.

Tuesday through Wednesday night: a mid-level ridge over the
southeast deflects the next system into the great lakes. An
associated warm front will provide the lift and moisture for some
additional shower and thunderstorm chances in this period. Higher
chances are currently present across northern portions of central
new york but that will be dependent on the strength and location of
the ridge over the southeast. Our region may see 80's by Wednesday
with ensemble guidance potentially too cool if the boundary ends up
north of our region.

Aviation 17z Thursday through Monday
Vfr conditions will prevail this morning, but warmth and
moisture will spread into the region. As the atmosphere
destabilizes this afternoon, a cold front is expected to cause
thunderstorms to sweep across the terminals. Best timing
likelihood has been indicated via tempo groups, though this
could shift back or forth by an hour or two; monitor for taf
updates. Currently anticipating thunder to be roughly 19z
northwest to 01z southeast. Some storms could be severe with
strong gusts and perhaps even hail. As for general winds,
initial southeast to south 5-8 knots will veer more south-
southwest up to 10 knots during the day; followed by a gusty
westerly along and in the wake of the line of storms. A post-
frontal MVFR to fuel alternate ceiling is anticipated to form
late tonight for at least ksyr-krme-kith-kbgm.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday night... Post-frontal MVFR to fuel
alternate ceilings may linger into Friday morning, especially
for the ny terminals; otherwiseVFR.

Saturday through Saturday night... Showers and thunderstorms
with associated restrictions likely, especially late afternoon
through evening. Storms may contain strong gusts.

Sunday through Sunday night... MainlyVFR but there will be a
small chance of showers or thunderstorms Sunday, and perhaps
a lingering MVFR ceiling behind that for Monday night.

Monday...VFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Dgm mdp
near term... Dgm mdp klein
short term... Mwg
long term... Mwg
aviation... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monticello, Sullivan County International Airport, NY30 mi45 minS 6 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F55°F70%1017.7 hPa

Wind History from MSV (wind in knots)
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last 24hrCalm4S54CalmE7E7E5E4CalmCalmCalmN3CalmSE7CalmE4SE4SE6S65SW46S6
G14
1 day agoNW14
G29
NW17
G27
NW12
G23
NW14
G25
NW18
G22
NW10
G17
NW8NW9NW5NW10NW3W4W3W3CalmW5CalmCalmCalmW6N8NW9
G15
N46
2 days agoW16
G25
W13
G21
W10
G17
W12
G18
W9
G18
W7
G15
W10
G15
NW12
G18
NW9
G18
NW11
G15
W15
G23
NW13
G26
W16
G24
W12
G16
NW12
G21
NW9
G16
NW15
G26
NW8
G18
NW13
G19
NW16
G26
NW15
G21
NW13
G22
NW14
G23
NW16
G24

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Kingston Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:25 AM EDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:04 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:10 PM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.71.42.43.33.84.14.13.62.81.81.10.50.30.61.32.12.83.23.43.32.721.41

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Tivoli
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:55 AM EDT     4.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:34 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 PM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
0.61.12.13.13.84.24.44.13.42.41.50.80.40.411.92.63.23.53.63.22.51.81.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (13,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.