Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Downsville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:43PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 5:16 PM EST (22:16 UTC) Moonrise 7:05PMMoonset 7:42AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Downsville, NY
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location: 42.11, -75     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 202039
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
339 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
Dual low pressure systems will move through the region tonight
bringing a wintry mix. High pressure will build into the region
for a short duration on Friday before another low pressure
system brings the next round of precipitation later this
weekend.

Near term through Thursday night
Two low pressure systems will continue tracking to the north. The
first area of low pressure will move the great lakes with the second
area of low pressure tracking up the east coast. Late this
afternoon, where precipitation is lightest it has been in the form
of a wintry mix. Areas of steadier precipitation, where snowflake
production is more efficient, precipitation has been in the form of
snow. Based on the observations, the primary changeover line is
near avoca and stretches westward toward bradford. This line should
come northeastward late this afternoon and evening. However,
precipitation types may still change a bit based on intensity. Given
lighter precipitation on average this afternoon this forecast lowers
snowfall totals for the remainder of the day quite a few locations
in the southern tier northward could see less than an inch of snow.

Temperatures will continue to warm throughout the night as well.

Leaned toward the nam-hires with the temperatures which gets most
locations to freezing gradually through the overnight with the 700-
800 mb layer warming above freezing early in the evening. With that
said, precipitation tonight should change from freezing rain to
rain. Lowered QPF amounts given the continued dry air in place.

Still a tenth of an inch in glaze could occur in a few spots leading
to slick surfaces. The winter weather advisory will continue given
the threat for incing.

With a few breaks in the clouds and continued warm air advection
Thursday highs should get well into the 40's. Some lingering light
lake effect precipitation is possible focused in oneida county
through Thursday night. Any additional snow accumulation looks to be
minor. With a increased pressure gradient from the departing lows
and approaching high some westerly wind gusts of around 20-25 mph
are likely tomorrow afternoon which matches projections from bufkit.

Clearing will continue to be slow Thursday night with temperatures
falling back into the mid 20's.

Short term Friday through Friday night
High pressure extending from the great lakes will keep our
weather clear for Friday and Friday night. Temperatures will peak
between 35 and 40 degrees on Friday, then fall into the upper-teens
and lower-20s Friday night.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
Saturday... A powerful storm spinning into the ohio valley will
spread mixed precipitation into our southern forecast area Saturday
morning. Temperatures will climb into the 40s during the day and
change the precipitation to rain as it spreads across the region.

Colder temperatures Saturday night will cause a mix of rain and
sleet to fall, especially along and east of i-81.

Sunday... The cyclone will track into northern michigan on Sunday and
pull very mild air and rain showers into ny and pa. Temperatures
will climb above 50 degrees by Sunday afternoon before the cyclone
drags a strong cold front across our region and changes the rain
showers over to snow showers late Sunday night. The cyclone and cold
front will be accompanied by very gusty winds. Stay tuned for
statements regarding the potential wind event.

Monday and Tuesday... Polar air behind the cyclone will pour
into ny and pa during this period. Scattered lake effect snow
showers are anticipated. A weak wave moving through the mid-
atlantic will bring a chance for widespread light snow Tuesday
night.

Aviation 21z Wednesday through Monday
Snow is moving into northeastern pa and the southern tier of ny
early this afternoon and should reach krme and ksyr by mid
afternoon. Ceilings and visibilities will gradually lower with
the arrival of the snow this afternoon to the MVFR and ifr
range. The highest chances for ifr visibilities reside in the
early and mid afternoon hours. The onset of the snow may vary
slightly from what the 18z tafs given some locations have gone
very quick fromVFR to ifr further south and others are much
slower to form restrictions. Ceilings will likely some more
tonight with the snow changing to freezing rain this evening.

Sleet is possible as well still this evening. This set of tafs
attempted to fine tune the timing of any sleet but some
uncertainty still remains. Winds will be southerly with some
gusts to 20 knots possible at kith.

Llws is likely this evening as well with the highest chances is
the 3-10z timeframe. Current thinking is that ceilings will be
slower to lift tomorrow than what some of our tools show with
ifr ceilings lifting to MVFR in the morning. Westerly wind
gusts close to 20 knots are possible tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon and night... MVFR ceilings slowly lifting
Thursday afternoon except at krme where some lake effect
precipitation is possible.

Friday and Saturday...VFR under high pressure.

Saturday night through Monday... Restrictions likely with rain,
perhaps a brief wintry mix at the start through Sunday. Ceilings
slowly improving on Monday.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Thursday for paz038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Thursday for nyz009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

Synopsis... Mwg
near term... Mwg
short term... Djp
long term... Djp
aviation... Mwg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 58 mi47 min Calm 25°F 1030 hPa21°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monticello, Sullivan County International Airport, NY30 mi21 minESE 82.00 miUnknown Precip Fog/Mist21°F19°F92%1028.3 hPa

Wind History from MSV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11NW6W3W5NW4CalmNW3SW4W3SW5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE4S5S8S7E7E7E8
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2 days agoSE6SE6SE12CalmSE6SE3SE9E7E7E5E8E6NE4E4E4E3CalmW5W15
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Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
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Wed -- 01:37 AM EST     4.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:36 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:07 AM EST     -0.97 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:53 PM EST     4.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:43 PM EST     -1.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.54.14.23.72.61.40.3-0.5-1-0.60.82.43.74.44.74.33.52.21-0.1-0.9-1.1-0.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
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Wed -- 02:07 AM EST     4.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:37 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:37 AM EST     -1.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:23 PM EST     4.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:13 PM EST     -1.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.14.14.54.33.42.20.9-0.1-0.9-0.901.73.34.44.94.94.231.70.4-0.6-1.1-0.80.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.