Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Benton Heights, MI
May 8, 2024 2:11 PM EDT (18:11 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:29 AM Sunset 8:52 PM Moonrise 5:33 AM Moonset 9:06 PM |
LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 1105 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024
Rest of today - West winds around 10 knots veering north late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering east toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots backing north late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night - North winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday - Northwest winds around 15 knots backing west late in the day. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday - West winds around 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 081043 AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 643 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-Dry conditions expected today, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms after 8 pm EDT. Chances for showers and storms continue through most of the week, with highs in the 70s and 80s today dropping into the 50s and 60s Thursday into Saturday. We warm back into the upper 60s and low to mid 70s by Sunday.
-Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this evening, mainly south and west of a line from LaPorte, Indiana to Lima, Ohio. The primary hazards with any strong to severe storms that develop would be heavy rain and localized flooding, damaging winds, and large hail. Confidence in severe weather occurring is low at this time.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 528 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Quiet weather today with high pressure in control, just some morning fog to contend with-which seems to be shallow or at least not widespread. There could be a few dense spots, with Angola and Goshen and Elkhart bouncing between 4-6 miles and down to 1/4 mile. Opted to hold off on any SPS for now given the patchy nature and intermittent duration. Expect improvement after sunrise, with highs climbing into the 70s and low 80s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Clouds will be on the increase from south to north through the late afternoon as our next system approaches.
The SPC Day 1 Outlook has roughly the southwest half of our CWA in a marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms this evening (southwest of a line from LaPorte, IN to Lima, OH). Not too impressed with this set up for our area, and I suspect that severe weather will pass us just barely to the south this evening-so confidence is low. A cold front extends through central Lower Michigan into central IN (over our office, actually), and southwestward into IL/MO/OK, and it will continue eastward through the late morning (out of our area). A surface low developing along the front over MO will lift northeast through the afternoon into IL by 00z, lifting a warm front up to about our southern border (depends on the model). Have pops increasing from south to north starting at 8 pm EDT, which is better in line with the higher resolution guidance (hrrr/Rap). Expect the window between 8 pm and 2 am will be our best chance for severe weather, as this is when we have some surface based instability (300-700 J/kg, best early on), stronger forcing from the approaching mid level trough, a coupled upper level jet structure (west of the CWA, shifting east), and the bulk shear profiles are still decent (35-55 knots). The issue is that models are conflicted as to how far north the surface low gets, and then whether or not some discrete cells develop ahead of the main line early on (HRRR, RAP, NAM show this) then the convection along the cold front really takes off just to the south, which I suspect will limit the deeper moisture necessary for the higher continued pops (a lull). When the stronger jet coupling moves in, the surface low splits--which I suspect is where models are struggling--with the broader low remaining over IA/IL and the (I suspect) more mesoscale induced low moves along our southern border heading eastward. Some of the guidance has stronger mid-level lapse rates of around 7C/km, but per the latest HRRR/RAP/NAM they look to be around 5-6C/km, which is another strike against severe weather.
The primary hazards with any strong to severe storms that develop would be heavy rain and localized flooding, damaging winds, and large hail. By 2 am, the instability wanes and we are limited as far as forcing goes (some stability behind the stronger line to the south), so the severe threat will wane significantly as well.
As the LLJ kicks in and we get better moisture transport, expect showers to redevelop along the warm front either in the central or northern CWA (E-W orientation). Rain will continue through Thursday night, with isolated thunderstorms when we can get some instability.
By Friday into the weekend, the entire Great Lakes is beneath an upper level trough, with a parade of rapidly alternating ridges/shortwaves that each bring chances for showers and maybe thunderstorms to our area on and off through the week. Today and Friday are the driest days, though this weekend into early next week we mainly have 20-40 percent chances (low confidence). Temperatures drop into the 50s and 60s until Sunday, when we see upper 60s and low 70s for highs. Temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s by early next week.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
The front moved through last night, although winds have become light southwest early today. A small band of dense fog had formed near the Mich border. SBN had dropped down to 1/4SM, although conditions have improved to 3SM. The latest satellite showed the fog drifting north with improvement south of the SBN terminal. Conditions should improve early with a break before more rain arrives tonight as the warm front moves north. Expect basically MVFR conditions with IFR possible with the embedded storms/heavier rain.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 643 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
KEY MESSAGES
-Dry conditions expected today, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms after 8 pm EDT. Chances for showers and storms continue through most of the week, with highs in the 70s and 80s today dropping into the 50s and 60s Thursday into Saturday. We warm back into the upper 60s and low to mid 70s by Sunday.
-Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this evening, mainly south and west of a line from LaPorte, Indiana to Lima, Ohio. The primary hazards with any strong to severe storms that develop would be heavy rain and localized flooding, damaging winds, and large hail. Confidence in severe weather occurring is low at this time.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 528 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
Quiet weather today with high pressure in control, just some morning fog to contend with-which seems to be shallow or at least not widespread. There could be a few dense spots, with Angola and Goshen and Elkhart bouncing between 4-6 miles and down to 1/4 mile. Opted to hold off on any SPS for now given the patchy nature and intermittent duration. Expect improvement after sunrise, with highs climbing into the 70s and low 80s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Clouds will be on the increase from south to north through the late afternoon as our next system approaches.
The SPC Day 1 Outlook has roughly the southwest half of our CWA in a marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms this evening (southwest of a line from LaPorte, IN to Lima, OH). Not too impressed with this set up for our area, and I suspect that severe weather will pass us just barely to the south this evening-so confidence is low. A cold front extends through central Lower Michigan into central IN (over our office, actually), and southwestward into IL/MO/OK, and it will continue eastward through the late morning (out of our area). A surface low developing along the front over MO will lift northeast through the afternoon into IL by 00z, lifting a warm front up to about our southern border (depends on the model). Have pops increasing from south to north starting at 8 pm EDT, which is better in line with the higher resolution guidance (hrrr/Rap). Expect the window between 8 pm and 2 am will be our best chance for severe weather, as this is when we have some surface based instability (300-700 J/kg, best early on), stronger forcing from the approaching mid level trough, a coupled upper level jet structure (west of the CWA, shifting east), and the bulk shear profiles are still decent (35-55 knots). The issue is that models are conflicted as to how far north the surface low gets, and then whether or not some discrete cells develop ahead of the main line early on (HRRR, RAP, NAM show this) then the convection along the cold front really takes off just to the south, which I suspect will limit the deeper moisture necessary for the higher continued pops (a lull). When the stronger jet coupling moves in, the surface low splits--which I suspect is where models are struggling--with the broader low remaining over IA/IL and the (I suspect) more mesoscale induced low moves along our southern border heading eastward. Some of the guidance has stronger mid-level lapse rates of around 7C/km, but per the latest HRRR/RAP/NAM they look to be around 5-6C/km, which is another strike against severe weather.
The primary hazards with any strong to severe storms that develop would be heavy rain and localized flooding, damaging winds, and large hail. By 2 am, the instability wanes and we are limited as far as forcing goes (some stability behind the stronger line to the south), so the severe threat will wane significantly as well.
As the LLJ kicks in and we get better moisture transport, expect showers to redevelop along the warm front either in the central or northern CWA (E-W orientation). Rain will continue through Thursday night, with isolated thunderstorms when we can get some instability.
By Friday into the weekend, the entire Great Lakes is beneath an upper level trough, with a parade of rapidly alternating ridges/shortwaves that each bring chances for showers and maybe thunderstorms to our area on and off through the week. Today and Friday are the driest days, though this weekend into early next week we mainly have 20-40 percent chances (low confidence). Temperatures drop into the 50s and 60s until Sunday, when we see upper 60s and low 70s for highs. Temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s by early next week.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024
The front moved through last night, although winds have become light southwest early today. A small band of dense fog had formed near the Mich border. SBN had dropped down to 1/4SM, although conditions have improved to 3SM. The latest satellite showed the fog drifting north with improvement south of the SBN terminal. Conditions should improve early with a break before more rain arrives tonight as the warm front moves north. Expect basically MVFR conditions with IFR possible with the embedded storms/heavier rain.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI | 4 mi | 71 min | SW 2.9G | 64°F | 29.78 | |||
| 45168 | 20 mi | 41 min | W 5.8G | 55°F | 54°F | 1 ft | 29.78 | 48°F |
| SVNM4 - South Haven, MI | 21 mi | 41 min | SSE 5.1G | 57°F | ||||
| MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN | 37 mi | 41 min | N 8G | 67°F | 29.71 | 45°F | ||
| HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI | 47 mi | 53 min | SSW 6G | 55°F | 56°F | 29.74 | 46°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBEH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN RGNL,MI | 1 sm | 18 min | W 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 72°F | 46°F | 41% | 29.75 | |
| KLWA SOUTH HAVEN AREA RGNL,MI | 19 sm | 16 min | W 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 68°F | 45°F | 43% | 29.75 |
Northern Indiana, IN,
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