Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Benton Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:02AMSunset 5:50PM Thursday January 24, 2019 1:45 AM EST (06:45 UTC) Moonrise 10:19PMMoonset 10:35AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 833 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds around 20 knots. Cloudy. A slight chance of light freezing drizzle and snow showers in the evening, then a slight chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Thursday..West winds to 30 knots. Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 8 feet late in the day.
Thursday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Snow showers likely. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Friday..West winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
LMZ844 Expires:201901241015;;826996 FZUS53 KGRR 240133 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 833 PM EST Wed Jan 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-241015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Benton Harbor, MI
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location: 42.11, -86.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 240553
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
1253 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 208 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
a cold front crossing the area will usher in colder air overnight
with a few snow showers possible downwind of lake michigan. Much
colder air will then follow late Thursday as an arctic cold front
swings through the area. Bitterly cold highs in the single digits
expected on Friday with wind chill values around 20 below zero.

Periodic snow showers will be possible at times through the
weekend... Especially in the lake effect snow belts... But any
accumulations will be light.

Update
Issued at 737 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
upper level trough and associated low level convergence axis
continues to very slowly nudge eastward across extreme northeast
indiana northwest ohio this evening where some light rain is
ongoing. In wake of this trough, very light drizzle with some
embedded flurries has also been observed. Precip rates appear to
be very light with drizzle, but persistence over a 2 to 4 hour
time period could create a few slick spots on roads this evening
as temperatures begin to drop below freezing. Influx of drier air
behind this trough should gradually deepen cold air enough for
patchy drizzle to transition to flurries light snow showers. Have
maintained trend of previous forecast in keeping low chances of
precip closer to lake michigan by late in the overnight hours.

Will issue an sps in next hour highlighting light patchy freezing
drizzle and dropping temperatures overnight possibly causing some
slick spots.

Short term (tonight through Thursday night)
issued at 208 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
cold front pushing through WRN zones at this hour and will clear ern
zones by sundown. Thus frontal rain band will come to an end w-e
this aftn with sharp post frontal cold advection following this
evening. Water ponding on area roads will refreeze in short order as
temps crash through the 20s.

Robust NRN stream SW disturbance amplifying through the james bay
vicinity Thursday will send another surge of arctic air south into
the oh valley. Expect sct snow showers with frontal passage in the
aftn and some limited lake response. However given inherent dryness
of this airmass, limited fetch and general poor microphysical
structure aloft accumulations will be quite limited < 3" in
aggregate in favored lake zones.

Long term (Friday through Tuesday)
issued at 208 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
lake based snow showers will diminish Fri morning as flow backs
ahead of new SW disturbance amplifying through base of broad ERN us
upper trough. This system still looks quite disorganized not to
mention moisture starved yet will spread some light snow across the
area Fri night Sat morning along with some moderation in temps.

Otherwise things remain interesting heading into Mon as vigorous sw
originating out of the epac south of the aleutians overtops WRN noam
upper ridge and amplifies sewd through the great lakes. As noted
yesterday emergence of lead current of return moisture off the gomex
along with strong warm advection into retreating cold dome implying
a robust precip response INVOF low level baroclinic zone. Too early
to suggest any further detail other than some ptype issues likely in
the CWA given eroding cold dome. However deterministic signals,
along with considerable ensemble spread continue to oscillate with
where this system ultimately tracks.

Thereafter looks to bring about the coldest airmass yet with
upstream cross polar flow developing as polar vortex swings south of
hudson bay mid week.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1253 am est Thu jan 24 2019
MVFR CIGS to persist through most, if not all the period for both
sites as colder air continues to stream in with even colder shot
of air arriving by tonight. Fzdz being reported at kfwa with loss
of ice in the clouds at present. This should be short lived,
winding down in the next couple of hours, but still requiring
addition to taf. Scattered light snow showers will be possible
this afternoon at both sites, but coverage and impacts at both
airports appears to low for now to have in taf. By 00z fri, lake
effect snow showers and increasing winds will arrive and may
impact ksbn the remainder of the period. Have limited vsby impacts
at this point as think worst may remain north of the site.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... Winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 am est
Friday for miz077-078.

Oh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Friday for lmz043-046.

Update... Marsili
synopsis... T
short term... T
long term... T
aviation... Fisher
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 2 mi45 min NW 9.9 G 14 27°F 1010.2 hPa (-0.0)
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 48 mi45 min NW 11 G 18 28°F 32°F1007.7 hPa (-0.0)16°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 49 mi65 min NW 7 G 9.9 23°F 1011.2 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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SE8
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G24
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SE4
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G13
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI2 mi52 minW 810.00 miOvercast27°F19°F72%1009.7 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI20 mi49 minWNW 710.00 miOvercast28°F20°F73%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE6SE5SE6SE5SE7SE8S8S6SW8SW9W8NW8NW7
G19
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G22
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G16
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W9NW6NW9
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1 day agoSE10SE11SE13SE12SE12SE12
G20
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G34
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G26
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S6S4S7S6S7S6S5S4SE3SE4
2 days agoCalmE3CalmNE3CalmE3CalmE5E5E7SE11SE11E8E11SE9SE9SE8E7SE8E8SE10SE9
G19
SE12
G23
SE13
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.