Saturday, April20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Benton Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 8:31PM Saturday April 20, 2019 12:44 PM EDT (16:44 UTC) Moonrise 9:07PMMoonset 7:00AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 1105 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Rest of today..North winds 15 to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots backing south 5 to 10 knots toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet toward daybreak.
Sunday..South winds around 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..South winds around 15 knots. Partly Sunny. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ844 Expires:201904202100;;219710 FZUS53 KGRR 201505 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1105 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-202100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Benton Harbor, MI
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location: 42.11, -86.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 201057
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
657 am edt Sat apr 20 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 404 am edt Sat apr 20 2019
a storm system lifting northeast across the ohio valley today will
spread more rainfall across northeast indiana, south central lower
michigan, and northwest ohio. Conditions are expected to remain
dry across northwest indiana and southwest lower michigan where
afternoon high temperatures should reach into the mid 50s. Cooler
high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s are expected across
northeast indiana and northwest ohio due to clouds and rainfall.

Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to upper 30s, and
highs will range from the mid 60s to mid 70s for Sunday under
mostly sunny skies.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 404 am edt Sat apr 20 2019
resolving precip amounts and western extent of measurable
rainfall today will continue to be the primary forecast challenge.

An upper let jet streak and associated vort lobe will continue to
progress through parent upper low, eventually allowing more
northeast progression of upper low to west virginia by this
evening. Radar satellite data beginning to depict some better
evidence of maturating trowal feature from western west virginia
into portions of west central ohio. A few lightning strikes have
even been noted across these locations over past hour or two.

Deformation forcing accompanying slowly northward ejecting upper
level feature will gradually spread northward across northwest
ohio, with better juxtaposition of trowal across northwest ohio
by 15z. There have even been a few reports of some snow mixing in
across NW ohio in association with this stronger forcing, and
cannot completely discount few flakes mixing in across far
southeast portions of the area through mid morning. Greatest
duration of deformation forcing now appears to be confined to
generally along and east of interstate 69 corridor, which should
also coincide with elongating trowal axis. With continued
indications of strong low mid level moisture gradient extending
back into northwest indiana NW ohio, will continue with trend from
previous few forecasts in sharpening west-east pop gradient and
reducing rainfall amounts across western periphery of this
forcing. A narrow zone coinciding with more prolonged
deformation trowal forcing may experience rainfall amounts in the
0.75-1 inch range, but still difficult even at this forecast
distance to resolve more precise placement.

Rather large temporal breaks in rainfall with the several rounds
of precip past few days and overall less rainfall than forecast,
continue to point toward flooding not being a concern today. One
possible exception could be across portions of northwest ohio
where a narrow axis of 1.50+ inch rain accumulation has occurred
past 36 hours from roughly delphos oh to ottawa oh. If deformation
axis does focus across these areas this morning early afternoon,
some ponding could occur. However, as previous discussion
mentioned, primary impact at this point will just be potential
minor flooding on a few area rivers in maumee wabash basins later
this weekend into early next week.

With trend toward dry air winning out west of deformation forcing
across NW indiana SW lower michigan, have accepted subtle
numerical guidance trend of slight warming of afternoon highs
across these locations. Windy conditions to persist today with
some gusts to 25 to 35 mph through early afternoon, but slow
eastward departure filling of sfc cyclone should relax winds late
this afternoon and more sharply by early evening.

Some lingering light rain is possible along weakening
deformation trowal axis across the far east this evening, but west
to east diminishing clouds winds will be the rule with lows
dropping into the mid 30s for many locations.

Long term (Sunday through Friday)
issued at 404 am edt Sat apr 20 2019
departure of upper level low will be followed by transition to
less amplitude pattern for Sunday Monday with Sunday still shaping
up to as a mostly sunny and seasonably mild day with highs from
low-mid 70s far west to mid-upper 60s far east.

Much of the medium range continues to be problematic in terms of
attaining any forecasting consistency with respect to pops as cut-
off southern stream low and several lead impulses in advance of
this feature lend to below normal confidence. It still appears as
though lead vort MAX coupled with weaker northern stream vort will
allow next sfc frontal boundary to sag into the area some time in
the late Monday Tuesday timeframe with additional chances of
showers and a few storms. Complications arising from
timing phasing still point toward nothing more than low-mid chance
mention at this time however. Main question and uncertainty will
be in regards to late Tuesday-Thursday and whether sfc boundary
will be far enough suppressed for additional chances of
showers storms. Medium range models now also indicating better
signal with regards to progressive, low amplitude northern stream
wave for Thursday. However, moisture availability could very well
be in question given deeper moisture should be shunted southeast
by this time. Temps should drop back to near seasonable levels for
mid-late work week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 650 am edt Sat apr 20 2019
rain was spreading back northwest and was closing in on fwa around
daybreak. The rain should reach the terminal and persist through
much of the day. The ceilings may become ifr for a short time, but
for now, kept conditions MVFR. There should be a sharp northwest
edge of the rain shield with sbn stayingVFR and dry. Clouds were
clearing slowly from the west with the west edge near the iwx
office to asw. Ceilings should becomeVFR this evening at fwa with
skies becoming mostly clear.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lmz043-046.

Synopsis... Marsili
short term... Marsili
long term... Marsili
aviation... Skipper
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 2 mi44 min N 19 G 23 42°F 1009.1 hPa (+0.6)
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 22 mi44 min NNW 16 G 19 41°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 36 mi44 min N 27 G 31 41°F 32°F
45170 37 mi34 min N 16 G 21 41°F 43°F7 ft33°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 48 mi44 min NW 12 G 17 46°F 46°F1008.6 hPa (+0.5)33°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 49 mi64 min N 11 G 14 41°F 1010.2 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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E18
G24
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G29
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W4
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NW5

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI2 mi51 minVar 6 G 1910.00 miFair47°F32°F56%1009.3 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI20 mi48 minNNW 11 G 1510.00 miFair49°F34°F57%1008.8 hPa

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8
G15
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N8NE5N3Calm45NE7NE76
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--N10
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G19
1 day ago554NW865335564N7556NE766N7
G16
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2 days agoSE12
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S9SE7S7S10
G16
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G26
SW12
G20
SW10S12
G18
S9
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SW8
G18
S10SW9SW4W5NW53

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.