Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winnetka, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:51PM Friday January 19, 2018 5:19 AM CST (11:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:45AMMoonset 8:28PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 301 Am Cst Fri Jan 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 9 am cst this morning through late tonight...
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt increasing to 20 to 25 kt by late morning, and to 30 kt late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft late in the day.
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 kt easing to 10 to 20 kt late. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late in the day. Mostly Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Intermittent rain and drizzle after midnight. Waves around 1 ft. Wave forecast is for ice free areas
LMZ740 Expires:201801191715;;671094 FZUS53 KLOT 190901 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 301 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-191715-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winnetka, IL
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location: 42.11, -87.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 190835
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
235 am cst Fri jan 19 2018

Short term
235 am cst
through tonight...

benign weather in the short term with the only real forecast
challenge being temps as warm air continues to attempt to surge
into the area, but being partially thwarted by the snow pack.

Goes-16 imagery from Thursday afternoon nicely depicted the
rapidly eroding snow cover over much of mo, ia, east into portions
of northwest and central il. The nohrsc's (national operational
hydrologic remote sensing center) snow analysis indicates the 2"
snow cover line skirts our southwestern cwa, with a fairly good
likelihood that these areas and points west and south will lose
their snow cover today. Have attempted to adjust high temps today
to go warmer in the lighter snow cover areas of western lasalle,
lee, and livingston counties. In addition, also went a bit warmer
over the highly urbanized areas of chicago where snow cover was
also analyzed largely less than 2" and where more buildings
provide for a lower albedo and a better chance of warming up.

Elsewhere, a fairly stout snow pack should help keep temps in the
mid to upper 30s today, but without the arrival of higher
dewpoints until later in the weekend, the snow melt should be a
bit more gradual.

- izzi

Long term
235 am cst
Saturday through Thursday...

no big changes in the pattern heading into Saturday, though
guidance is in good agreement in beginning the northward transport
of higher theta-e air mass, likely resulting in a northward moving
stratus deck. A good consensus exists that stratus will arrive by
Saturday evening at the latest with overcast conditions likely to
persist until the cold front moves through Monday. Both the gfs
and NAM have a pretty solid looking drizzle sounding Saturday
night with guidance even attempting to squeeze out a hundredth of
an inch here and there. Have maintained a light rain drizzle
mention Sat night into Sunday. Fog chances look to increase later
Saturday night and particularly into Sunday and continued carrying
fog in the grids through this time frame.

Sat night into Sunday, cyclogenesis will take place over the
central southern high plains, with warm frontogenesis occurring
east from this low into central il. The result will be southerly
winds backing to easterly over much of the cwa, which combined
with the cloud cover should limit the temp rise during the day
Sunday. This warm front is expected to lift north as the sfc low
track northeast toward the lower great lakes region, though
guidance has wavered a bit with timing track intensity of this
system. The latest ECMWF is the slower, weaker, and farther south
and would keep much of our central northern CWA in the fog,
drizzle and chilly air Sunday night before the warm front lifts
north briefly early Monday. The NAM and GFS are a bit faster with
warm FROPA and for now generally followed a blend of guidance and
do show markedly rising temps Sunday night into Monday morning. As
the higher dewpoints arrive Sunday night, look for what is left of
the snow cover to quickly melt.

The intermittent drizzle very light rain will likely build into
steadier and heavier rain Sunday night into Monday as the main
system lifts northeast into the region. Cold front will move
across the area Monday afternoon evening time frame with colder
air rushing into the area. ECMWF is farther south with the track
of the system and would keep the mid level dry intrusion farther
south and would provide for more of a chance of some snow showers
in the area Monday night vs the GFS and gem which would tend to
favor snow on the back side of the system staying farther north in
wi. Still plenty of time to watch things, but the southward trend
in the ECMWF is noteworthy and often times the ECMWF leads the
path toward changes in guidance like this one.

Dry weather with fairly seasonable temps expected in the wake of
this system Tuesday into Wednesday. By the later part of next
week, medium range models dig another trough into the western
conus which would support downstream ridging and another mild
spell late in the week possibly into the first part of next
weekend. Assuming no significant snow cover is left behind Monday
night tues morning with this first system, then the late week warm
up would likely not be impeded by snow cover and could be more
pronounced than this current warm up.

- izzi

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

conditions will continue to be fairly quiet withVFR conditions
over the next 24 to 30 hours. Southwest winds (200-220 degree
direction) will increase by the late morning or early afternoon
and become gusty. Expect gusts generally in the 20-25 kt range
through Friday evening, with winds and gusts then diminishing
overnight. The low level jet will ramp up Friday evening, causing
southwest winds at fl ~020 to increase to about 50 kt. If wind
gusts are less frequent than expected, llws may need to be added
to the taf.

Castro

Marine
1258 am cst
an active pattern continues over the lake into next week. A
quick-moving but fairly strong alberta clipper system will cross
ontario today and this evening. A tightening pressure gradient
will result and enough so for small craft advisory winds over the
illinois and indiana nearshores by late morning and for gales over
the open water by mid-afternoon. These conditions will persist
through this evening before easing late tonight.

The associated cold front from this low will dip southward into
the northern part of the lake and weaken on early Saturday. A
stronger plains low will develop Sunday afternoon and move
northeast, lifting a warm front over the lake on Monday.

Increasing temperatures and dew points over the cooler waters, as
well as added moisture from snow melt to the south of the lake,
may increase the likelihood of fog across the southern part of the
lake late Sunday night into early Monday. Confidence on this is
low at this time. Winds ahead of this system may touch near gales
across the north and central late Sunday night into Monday, but
the better widespread potential for gales it on the system
backside later Monday night into Tuesday. With quite a bit of
variance in model guidance on where this low cross the lake, and
just how strong it will be (though it should be gradually
deepening), confidence in gales at this time is low.

Mtf

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Gale warning... Lmz777-lmz779... 2 pm Friday to 3 am Saturday.

Small craft advisory... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742-lmz743-lmz744-
lmz745... 9 am Friday to 3 am Saturday.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 10 mi139 min SSW 34 32°F
OKSI2 15 mi139 min W 8 32°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 16 mi49 min SSW 21 G 25 31°F 21°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 18 mi39 min SW 15 G 19 30°F
CNII2 19 mi34 min SSW 5.1 G 9.9 28°F 19°F
JAKI2 24 mi139 min WSW 11 29°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 28 mi49 min SSW 13 G 18 27°F 1013.4 hPa20°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 33 mi79 min SW 11 G 20 31°F 1011.9 hPa (+0.0)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 45 mi39 min SSW 15 G 21 28°F 1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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SW8
G14
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G18
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G22
SW11
G20
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SW6
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G16
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G23
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2 days
ago
SW7
G12
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G14
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G12
W6
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W8
G14
W7
G13
NW11
G16
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G11
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G9
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G12
W4
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W6
G10
W5
G9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL8 mi27 minSSW 1010.00 miFair29°F19°F66%1013.6 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL12 mi28 minSW 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy29°F19°F66%1013.4 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL22 mi26 minSW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds29°F19°F69%1014.9 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL23 mi24 minSW 11 G 1710.00 miFair29°F19°F69%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8W8SW8SW10SW16
G19
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SW12SW11
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SW8
G21
SW11SW10SW8SW10SW9SW9SW7SW7SW9SW9SW9SW7SW10
1 day agoW3W44W5SW6SW7SW10W12
G21
W12
G18
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G18
2 days agoNW8NW8NW9NW9NW14NW12NW15N10N8NW10NW9NW9NW6NW7NW8NW6NW5NW4NW7NW6NW5W4W4W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.