Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Winnetka, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:09PM Monday October 15, 2018 5:32 AM CDT (10:32 UTC) Moonrise 1:27PMMoonset 11:00PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 315 Am Cdt Mon Oct 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt with a few gusts to 30 kt. Rain ending early. Otherwise cloudy early, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft late in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt late in the evening, then becoming southwest 15 to 25 kt late. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..Southwest winds to 30 kt. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday night..West winds 20 to 25 kt becoming northwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:201810151530;;209851 FZUS53 KLOT 150815 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 315 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-151530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winnetka, IL
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location: 42.11, -87.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 150829
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
329 am cdt Mon oct 15 2018

Short term
252 am cdt
through tonight...

it will be a breezy, cool day to kick off many's work week, with
temperatures more than 15 degrees below normal. A frost or freeze
headline will be needed for likely a good portion of the area for
tonight. However, due to lower confidence in tonight's wind
speeds impacting which headline may be needed, have opted to hold
off on the issuance at this time. For NWS offices further
southwest and south where they have not had any frost or freezing
yet, the urgency for the headline is greater and has been issued
to start the day.

Cold advection is enveloping the CWA early this morning with the
last bout of post-frontal precipitation to depart before sunrise.

This provided rockford with its first snow of the season, albeit
a trace in the overnight hours mixed in with rain. The 150+ kt
upper jet will remain overhead today and further strengthen,
translating to the surface as a continued pressure gradient.

Northwest winds will increase after daybreak with frequent gusts
of 23-28 mph today.

A challenge with today's forecast is cloud cover. Guidance for
this field is aggressive in clearing by 8-9 a.M., however
upstream satellite trends show widespread cold advection
stratocumulus stratus. This is a fairly thin layer so is likely
why guidance is struggling, and at the same time this suggests
that thinning and scattering should happen with mixing but just
uncertain how quickly. This will influence temperatures some,
though advection will be the main driving factor. Have forecast
highs in the mid-upper 40s from north to south over the cwa.

The anomalously strong surface canadian high for mid-october
(1036 mb) will build across the western southern plains by early
evening, with its broad ridging extending east-northeast into our
region. This should allow for decoupling this evening and likely
an abrupt temperature drop. Frost in some areas could develop by
9 pm due to the low starting point of temperatures going into
night. As the ridge shifts south, the west-southwest winds will
gradually increase and temperatures likely will go up a tad too.

Have minimum temperatures at or just below freezing in outlying
areas, while mid 30s in the heart of the chicago metro. Again a
freeze warning or a frost advisory will likely be needed.

Mtf

Long term
329 am cdt
Tuesday through Sunday...

for the longer term forecast period, general weather trends are
expected to be relatively quiet and dry at least through mid week as
broad upper troughing covers much of the northern plains through the
great lakes to the nern CONUS while a cut off upper low sits over
the desert southwest. The upper trough will be slowly progressive
over the next few days while ridging builds over the central plains
and the cut-off low moves little. The upper ridge will increase in
amplitude as it very slowly moves east across the plains. The upper
ridge axis is expected to finally reach the upper midwest and
western great lakes by Friday. Meanwhile, the cut-off low will
finally get kicked out and lift northeast as an open wave. The
general trend should be should be for deep layer cold advection
under nwly flow aloft through Thursday with little change to the
overall trends for below normal temperatures. Following the passage
of the cold front early Monday morning, conditions are expected to
remain dry at least through Thursday. By Friday, the longer range
guidance is relatively consistent on the idea of swly flow setting
up, with a weak southern stream shortwave lifting through the middle
mississippi valley, which could bring the next chance for rain, with
the highest chances for any pcpn over the southern portions of the
cwa.

Northern stream shortwave energy dropping out of central canada will
help amplify an upper over the upper mississippi valley and western
great lakes by Saturday. A cold front pushing across the area
sometime Saturday night should shift winds to more northerly. This
may bring the potential for some light pcpn to nern il and, perhaps
some lake effect showers into northwest indiana. There is a chance
that if some of the pcpn occurs during the diurnal min temp time
that the pcpn could be a rain snow mix or a little snow for early
Sunday morning with morning lows expected to be in the lower 30s.

High pressure should build in during the day Sunday, with deep
subsidence developing behind the departing upper trough ending any
pcpn chances and setting up a warming trend into early next week.

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

concerns for the chicago area tafs through today and tonight are:
- rain drizzle prior to sunrise, with a chance for a brief mix
with non-accumulating snow before ending
- temporary ifr ceilings and visibility possible prior to daybreak
- northwest winds becoming gusty, with occasional gusts around 25
kt mid-morning through mid-afternoon
an upper level weather disturbance will continue to provide rain
and drizzle across the area through sunrise. An area of more
widespread precipitation will move across north central and parts
of northeast illinois, likely clipping ord and mdw 0730z-10z or
so. As northwest winds increase across the area by 08z, colder
air will move in and there is potential for this to briefly change
over to non-accumulating snow. This is in fact likely at rfd,
where temporary visibility under 2sm may occur.

Precipitation should end by 11z or so, with northwest winds
becoming gusty shortly after. Ceilings will also quickly
dissipate, allowing for greater mixing and the likelihood of gusts
in the mid 20 kt range. Confidence in wind direction and speed
today is medium-high. Winds will then ease and back some early
this evening.

Mtf

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... In nearshore waters until 3 am Tuesday.

Small craft advisory... Il nearshore waters until 9 pm Monday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45174 5 mi22 min NW 19 G 25 41°F 59°F4 ft41°F
FSTI2 10 mi92 min WNW 18 39°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 16 mi32 min NW 22 G 24 41°F 38°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 18 mi52 min NW 11 G 16 37°F
45186 18 mi32 min N 12 40°F 54°F1 ft
CNII2 19 mi17 min W 8 G 16 41°F 38°F
JAKI2 24 mi92 min NW 5.1 G 11 42°F
45187 26 mi32 min 40°F 55°F2 ft
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 28 mi32 min WNW 8 G 15 41°F 1017 hPa (+1.8)40°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 33 mi32 min WNW 11 G 16 37°F 1017.6 hPa (+1.7)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 45 mi52 min NW 9.9 G 13 47°F 1016.9 hPa
45170 48 mi22 min NW 19 G 25 47°F 60°F7 ft46°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL8 mi40 minNW 1310.00 miOvercast38°F34°F86%1018.5 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL12 mi41 minNW 11 G 2210.00 miOvercast38°F35°F89%1018 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL22 mi39 minNW 119.00 miLight Rain40°F37°F89%1017.9 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL23 mi37 minWNW 7 G 1610.00 miOvercast36°F33°F89%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmCalmCalmS4S10S10SW7SW7S10SW8W5W5NW7NW8W8NW7NW4NW7NW6NW13NW13
G17
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1 day agoCalmSW3S4SW46S9SW96SW12
G17
S11S11
G16
S11SW9S9SW7SW4S5S5S3NW4CalmCalmCalmS3
2 days agoSW3W4W4W73W6SW6W8SW10SW8SW9SW6W9W6W5W5W6W5W4W3W3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.