Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Williams, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 7:30PM Saturday March 23, 2019 1:15 AM PDT (08:15 UTC) Moonrise 9:54PMMoonset 8:04AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 834 Pm Pdt Fri Mar 22 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. Long period west swell will persist through Saturday before subsiding during the day Sunday. After a brief break early Sunday, another strong low pressure system will arrive from the southwest Sunday night resulting in another round of increasing south winds and steepening seas. Unsettled weather is expected through much of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williams, OR
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location: 42.12, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 230342
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
842 pm pdt Fri mar 22 2019

Discussion An update was just sent, mainly to increase pops
across the east side late tonight and tomorrow morning.

Precipitation has decreased in coverage this evening, but there
are still showers around. Satellite imagery shows another wave of
colder cloud tops approaching the california coast, and as the
upper trough becomes negatively tilted and moves onshore later
tonight, this area will blossom with precipitation filling in
again. Guidance shows the majority of the precipitation later
tonight and tomorrow morning falling across the east side, and
snow levels will gradually lower to near the valley floors. We've
increased pops and QPF and this has increased snowfall amounts a
little in the warners but not so much elsewhere. It doesn't look
like anything unusual, but we could a half inch to maybe 2 inches
of snow in some valley locations (on the higher end the farther
east you go) and up to 6 inches in the warner mountains. This
isn't advisory-worthy, but roadways may be a little slippery on
the east side by tomorrow morning.

As the upper trough moves onshore tomorrow morning, instability
will increase, and this will result in a chance for thunderstorms
from the cascade crest westward. Instability will not be
excessive, but certainly enough for brief heavy rain, small hail,
and or gusty outflow winds with any of the storms. -wright

Aviation For the 23 00z tafs... Showers will slowly diminish
this evening through tonight. MVFR conditions are likely along
the coast and coastal mountains through this evening. Conditions
will gradually improve overnight.VFR and scattered MVFR
conditions are likely farther inland and east of the cascades the
rest of today and overnight. Areas of terrain obscuration can also
be expected. Conditions east of the cascades are mostly MVFR and
conditions will continue through 18z Saturday.

-sargeant sven

Marine Updated 840 pm pdt Friday, 22 march 2019...

high west swell will keep seas over 10 feet through Sunday
morning, continuing the small craft advisory for hazardous seas.

This will also result in hazardous bar conditions and higher than
average surf before diminishing Sunday morning.

After a brief break in the action Sunday, another robust frontal
system is expected to arrive Sunday night into Monday morning. The
latest model solutions suggest it looks similar to the front that
moved through today so have trended the winds higher and
forecasted another bump in wind waves. This system could warrant
another gale warning but have left that out for now. Conditions
should improve by Tuesday, but long-term guidance suggests
unsettled weather will continue into next week, although exact
details are uncertain at this time. -sargeant sven

Prev discussion issued 249 pm pdt Fri mar 22 2019
short term... A cold front is making its way through the forecast
area this afternoon, bringing areas of precipitation and breezy
winds. So far, the big winners on precipitation amounts are along
the coast with between 0.50" to 0.75" reported along the curry
coast and coastal mountains. Elsewhere, amounts range from 0.25"
to 0.50" roughly west of i-5 with generally less than tenth of an
inch east of i-5. Some light precipitation will continue through
the remainder of the afternoon, but guidance indicates that the
heaviest precipitation has already fallen today. Winds are breezy
across the area as well, especially in the shasta valley where
winds have gusted to 45 mph in the past hour. A wind advisory
remains in effect for this until late this afternoon, and details
can be found at npwmfr.

Winds diminish this evening, and precipitation will become
showery west of the cascades overnight. East of the cascades,
shortwave energy moves through the area as the upper level trough
swings inland. This will generate another round of precipitation
across the east side as snow levels lower to around 4000 feet
tonight. Expect a brief period of snow accumulation late tonight
into Saturday morning of around 1 to 3 inches with locally higher
amounts for the warners, including cedar pass, of 3 to 5 inches.

While these amounts aren't enough to warrant any headlines, it has
been over a week since accumulating snow occurred east of the
cascades, so if you're traveling Saturday morning be prepared for
possible wintry conditions.

Meanwhile, as the trough swings inland late tonight into
Saturday, temperatures aloft will cool significantly, creating an
unstable air mass. Have maintained the thunderstorm mention in
the forecast for areas west of the cascades through Saturday
afternoon. Small hail will be possible with showers thunderstorms,
especially in the afternoon as daytime heating contributes to
instability.

Showers should taper off after sunset Saturday as the trough
moves to the east. A brief period of ridging will build into the
area Saturday night, leading to clearing skies and near-freezing
temperatures for many valleys west of the cascades. Areas of frost
will be possible Sunday morning, so those with agricultural
interests should take any necessary precautions to protect
vegetation.

The next system arrives Monday, and, while similar to today, this
one will be a bit more impactful than the system moving through
today. Winds will be breezy to gusty in the usual places, and the
trajectory of the system favors the heaviest precipitation along
the curry coast, western siskiyou county and south central
siskiyou county. The trajectory also favors high precipitation
rates around the black butte mt. Shasta area. Have maintained snow
levels of around 3500 to 4000 feet in this area, and this would
indicate a brief period of potential advisory level snow amounts
Monday morning. For the remainder of the area, this system will be
colder than today's, with snow levels hovering around 4000 feet.

We'll be keeping an eye for any additional potential winter
weather impacts. Precipitation will taper off Monday evening, and
we'll be in a relative break as we head into the extended. Br-y
long term... Tuesday through Friday... An active pattern continues
with south to southwest flow aloft on Tuesday and a low pressure
system moving into the area late Tuesday through Wednesday. During
the day on Tuesday, expect showers to increase, especially across
southern and western portions of the area as a frontal system
approaches from the west. This front will spread light to moderate
precipitation across the CWA Tuesday evening through Wednesday
morning. Heaviest precipitation is expected across curry, southern
josephine and western and south central siskiyou counties. Snow
levels are expected around 3500 to 4500 feet during this period.

Current models support light to moderate accumulating snow possible
on higher passes Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.

The closed low will push into the oregon coast on Wednesday with
widespread showers expected over the area. Given the cold low
nearing the coast on Wednesday, may also see enough instability and
upper level dynamics for thunderstorms, especially over the marine
waters and into the coast. However the track of the low may be just
north of the cwa, so will continue to monitor this potential. Breezy
to gusty south winds are expected over the area on Wednesday, with
strong winds possible in the shasta valley and gusty winds east of
the cascades. Then the low will move inland and open up into an
upper trough on Thursday. This will result in continued showers.

Snow levels are expected to be around 3500 to 4500 feet Wednesday
and Thursday but may lower to 3000 feet at times, Wednesday night
and Thursday morning. On Friday, the upper trough may begin to shift
eastward. However, depending on how quickly this trough shifts out
of the area, lingering showers are possible. -cc

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 am pdt Sunday for
pzz350-356-370-376.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 51 mi33 min SSE 7 G 8 51°F 53°F1021 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 58 mi25 min S 12 G 14 55°F 53°F12 ft1021.3 hPa55°F
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 74 mi27 min SE 13 G 15

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR31 mi22 minNW 39.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F42°F97%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNW3CalmNE4N5NW3CalmNW4N4NE3NW4CalmS10S9S9W4NW3N3NW4NW3
1 day agoNW4S3S4CalmS4S3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW55NW4W8NW8SW4NW6W3S4S4S6
2 days agoCalmNE4E4N4S5CalmS4SW6S9SE11SE14SE14SE21
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Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
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Sat -- 01:52 AM PDT     7.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:18 AM PDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:07 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:27 PM PDT     6.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:32 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:23 PM PDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:58 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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67.17.56.95.63.820.6-0.2012.64.35.76.56.55.74.42.91.6111.93.4

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:51 AM PDT     7.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:14 AM PDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:07 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:26 PM PDT     6.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:32 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:19 PM PDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:57 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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67.27.56.95.53.71.90.5-0.20.11.12.74.45.86.56.55.74.32.81.60.91.123.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.