Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Williams, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:34PM Sunday March 26, 2017 5:44 PM PDT (00:44 UTC) Moonrise 5:31AMMoonset 5:12PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 251 Pm Pdt Sun Mar 26 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon a waters..South gales ahead of a cold front will persist into late this afternoon. Winds will decrease behind the front, but seas will remain high and steep due to fresh swell from the south. Seas will build Monday reaching a peak Monday evening from a very long period west swell. The high seas will then be accompanied by increasing southerly winds with the next system Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williams, OR
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location: 42.12, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 262152
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
252 pm pdt Sun mar 26 2017

Discussion 26/12z nam/gfs/ec in.

The northern hemispheric projection shows a wave number of four
around the globe and occasionally hints at a five over the next
several days. This argues for a moderately progressive pattern.

That is indeed what we will get over the next several days.

Overall the pattern looks quite spring like... With weaker storms
driven by low amplitude upper level troughs. The primary storm
track will remain to the north of the area... But there will be
some action down here.

A weak long wave ridge is now moving out to the east. An upper
level trough is approaching the coast... And it is ejecting short
waves short waves out ahead of it. The first of these short waves
is supporting a surface front which has now moved onshore. Light
precipitation continues to be reported over the most of the west
side and is spreading farther east on the east side. Winds have
been gusty along the coast... Over the ridges... In the shasta
valley... And east of the cascades... But nothing meeting advisory
criteria so far. With the cold core aloft... Isolated thunderstorms
are also possible this afternoon and evening over northern klamath
and lake counties. Snow levels are running in the 5000-6000 foot
range now and will fall to around 3500-5000 feet tonight.

Subsequent short waves will support plenty of shower activity
tonight into Monday. The last of the short waves and the long
wave trough will move through the area Monday. Showers will
diminish in the wake of the trough. Snow levels will be in the
3500-4500 foot range Monday.

After that, there will be a longer break in the action as a long
wave ridge moves toward the west coast. This will bring dry and
warmer weather to the area Monday night into Tuesday. The ridge
axis will break to the east of the area Tuesday night and a strong
short wave riding up the back side of the ridge will move onshore
to the north of the area Wednesday. A warm front will move onshore
Tuesday night... Followed by a trailing cold front Wednesday
afternoon. With most of the upper level support remaining to the
north... Both fronts will be relatively weak this far south. Even
so... Most if not all of the medford CWA will get some light
precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday. A stronger short wave
with a more southerly trajectory will move onshore Wednesday
night with the long wave trough. This will support post-frontal
showers lasting into Thursday.

Long term... Thursday through Sunday.

There remains model uncertainty regarding the strength of an upper
trough and whether it will have more of a southeast or east
trajectory as it moves across the pacific northwest on Thursday.

The 12z ECMWF has been more consistent with a colder/wetter
southeast track than the 12z GFS while a slim majority of the gfs
ensemble members shade toward the operational GFS solution. A blend
of models was utilized with showers/snow showers in the chance to
likely category with the highest probability on and near northwest
facing mountain slopes. Snow levels are forecast to be around 4000
to 4500 feet and snow amounts likely to be around 1 to 4 inches.

A cold northerly flow is expected Thursday night into Friday morning
with diminishing cloud cover and perhaps a few lingering evening
showers. Low temperatures still look to be a couple to several
degrees below normal for most of our area with lows mainly in the
30s on the west side and in the 20s on the east side.

A high pressure ridge is likely to bring a warming and drying trend
Friday into Saturday with the storm track pushed northward into
canada. Although there is no support from the GFS ensemble, a slight
chance of showers was included for the coos and douglas county
coast. The ECMWF solution is stronger and farther south with the
track of an occluded front. In this 'worst case' scenario the bulk
of light precipitation would still remain north of our area.

Model uncertainty is very high for day 7/Sunday. The forecast high
temperatures for Sunday were kept near Saturday's expected readings.

But, these will likely be adjusted as the ECMWF indicates a building
ridge while the GFS shows another deep trough moving from the gulf
of alaska into the pacific northwest with an increasing
probability of precipitation Sunday night into Monday. -dw

Aviation 26/18z TAF cycle... A cold front will continue across the
area through this evening then another disturbance follows through
Monday morning. This will continue widespread rain and snow showers
with mountain obscuration and freezing levels falling from around
6000 feet this afternoon down to 4000 feet msl on Monday morning.

There will be local ifr (mainly near the coast) and localVFR
(mainly on the east side) ceilings but MVFR for a majority of the
area. Conditions will begin to improve Monday afternoon with
diminishing showers. -dw

Marine Updated 230 pm pdt Sunday 26 march 2017... South gales will
continue until late this afternoon with wind changing to west and
decreasing quickly below advisory criteria. However west winds will
increase behind the front and the combination of steep wind wave and
higher west swell will lead to small craft conditions for seas
Monday beyond 10 nm. Westerly swells will build into the 10 to 15
foot range Monday leading to high and steep seas in all areas.

Beyond 30 nm seas could be very steep around 15 feet. Steep seas
could linger through at least Thursday morning. /fb

Mfr watches/warnings/advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 11 am pdt Monday for orz027-028.

Ca... Wind advisory until 8 pm pdt this evening for caz081.

Pacific coastal waters... Gale warning until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 5 pm pdt this afternoon for
pzz350-356-370-376.

15/16/08


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 51 mi44 min SSW 6 G 12 52°F 54°F1014.7 hPa (+1.7)
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 58 mi54 min SW 12 G 16 53°F 53°F8 ft1013.9 hPa (+2.0)
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 74 mi44 min SW 13 G 15 51°F 52°F1013.4 hPa (+1.8)

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR31 mi51 minSE 310.00 miOvercast54°F46°F77%1011.3 hPa

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13NW11NW5NE3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3W3NE3CalmCalmCalmN4NE4NE5N5N5N7SE3
1 day agoCalmN3N3NW6N4N3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE54NW11NW10NW13W9
G17
2 days agoN5SW5N6CalmN6N3NE3CalmNE4NW35SE12
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S9S8SW6SW5S8CalmSW3N7NE8NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
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Sun -- 05:12 AM PDT     1.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:34 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:09 AM PDT     6.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:37 PM PDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:15 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:36 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:53 PM PDT     6.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
65.34.22.91.91.51.72.53.85.26.26.76.55.542.410.100.72.13.75.26.3

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:09 AM PDT     1.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:33 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:08 AM PDT     6.72 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:33 PM PDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:15 PM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:36 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:52 PM PDT     6.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
65.34.12.91.91.51.72.63.95.26.26.76.45.442.30.90.100.82.13.85.36.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.