Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:17PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:02 PM EST (19:02 UTC) Moonrise 7:19AMMoonset 5:06PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 940 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow late this morning, then a chance of flurries this afternoon. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday. The water temperature off toledo is 34 degrees...off cleveland 33 degrees and off erie 32 degrees.
LEZ149 Expires:201801162115;;536015 FZUS51 KCLE 161440 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 940 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ147>149-162115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 161749
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1249 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
Weakening low pressure across lower michigan will drift
northeast today and leave a trough across the area for tonight.

High pressure will push up the ohio valley Wednesday and
Thursday then weaken and shift to the southeast u.S. For
Saturday. This will bring a warming trend to the area for the
second half of the week.

Near term through Wednesday
Light snow continues across extreme northwest ohio, near
youngstown and at erie. The light snow is expected across the
toledo area for the rest of the afternoon. Snow should taper off
at youngstown as well over the next few hours. Erie should see
the lake effect continue into the evening hours. Made some
adjustments to weather across the area to account for the snow
in place. Otherwise, no other significant changes.

Previous discussion...

no changes with this early morning update... Cold air is really
pushing into the area on the backside of the clipper which is
now broadly centered across lower michigan ontario. Single digit
readings are commonplace across in and western oh including
into the findlay area. Hancock and wood counties are really the
only portion of our area that will be flirting with the -10 wind
chill criteria through around 9 am this morning. For this
limited and marginal situation, we will continue just to mention
it in the hwo and in the forecast itself. Interestingly enough,
guidance temperatures across the area today have quite the
spread. Not quite sure what the met guidance is seeing bringing
fdy all the way up to 18 later this afternoon especially after
seeing the cold located upstream. This cold air is just now
arriving and therefore have sided with the cooler mav and ec
numbers. Far eastern areas still will have snow chances and only
minor accumulations if any. Elsewhere only a few flurries here
and there. Any breaks in the overcast will be limited and fill
back in.

Tonight the upper trough rotates across. Have the mention of
flurries with this. Lake effect enhancement a tough call with
an ice covered lake. With the trough swinging across have snow
shower chances across primarily erie co pa overnight with the
lake possibly providing some enhancement. Nothing organized.

Again guidance temperatures vary. Have gone on the colder side,
but not as cold as the ec hoping that cloud cover keeps us away
from too many sub zero temperatures. Winds will be lighter and
wind chills likely will not reach colder than the -10 mark.

Warm advection begins Wednesday and the area should recover
nicely into the upper teens and lower 20s.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday night
A quiet stretch of weather is in store later this week with a slow
warming trend developing. Shortwave ridging will be overhead on
Wednesday night followed by a compact upper wave passing northeast
of the area on Thursday. Southwesterly flow and warm advection will
be on the increase as the gradient tightens between surface high
pressure over the ohio valley and the approaching trough to the
north. Low levels will be dry with just passing mid and high clouds
and expecting partly to mostly sunny skies on Thursday and Friday.

High pressure along the gulf coast shifts to the east coast Friday
into Saturday allowing low level moisture return to develop. The
cloud field will thicken on Saturday with continued warm advection
and increasing isentropic ascent. High temperatures through the
period will gradually climb from the mid 20s on Thursday to the
lower 40s on Saturday.

Long term Saturday through Monday
The long term begins with a deep upper trough over the four corners
region and ridging across the eastern united states. Light rain
showers are possible Saturday night into early Sunday as a warm
front lifts north across the area. Temperatures on Sunday in the
warm sector will approach 50 degrees or better, melting the snowpack
once again. The upper low is expected to lift out of the plains and
move northeast across the midwest and upper great lakes Sunday night
through Monday night. Showers will accompany the occluded front as
it sweeps eastward Sunday night into Monday. Current timing suggests
highs on Monday will occur early in the day, with temperatures
falling behind the front to near normal values by Tuesday.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Some light snow continues at toledo as surface trough approaches
the area from the west. Lingering light snow also present at
youngstown and expect this to diminish during the afternoon.

More robust snow over erie at this time will continue into the
evening as a result of the lake effect. Trough will swing
through later tonight and high pressure will begin to build into
the forecast area tomorrow. Expecting winds to remain around 6
to 8 knots across the area through the period.VFR conditions
should persist during the day tomorrow.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible late Sunday.

Marine
Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots on lake erie today
behind a cold front. Winds will relax some Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as a weak trough moves across the lake. Late
Wednesday into Thursday southwest winds will increase on the lake
again as the gradient tightens between high pressure over the ohio
valley and a series of troughs sliding across the upper lakes.

Southwest winds of 20-30 knots are possible on Thursday. Breezy
southwest winds of 10-20 knots continue into the weekend with a
return to above normal temperatures.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Oudeman
near term... Lombardy oudeman
short term... Kec
long term... Kec
aviation... Lombardy
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi45 min W 9.9 G 15
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 27 mi48 min WNW 19 G 26 15°F 1028.1 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi63 min W 12 G 13 22°F 1028.8 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi72 minW 90.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist14°F10°F84%1029.9 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8S9SE8SE10S10
G17
S10S13S9S9S7S7SW76W9W7W7SW3W6W7W7W7W7W9W8
1 day agoN6NE5SE4NE3E3CalmS4SE4SE4SE6SE8E3SE6SE6SE7SE11SE16SE13SE10SE10S10
G18
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2 days agoNW12
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NW11N8N5N7N6NW7NW3NW5N4CalmS4S6SW6SW6SW5SW5CalmE3W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.