Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 7:43PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 11:22 PM EDT (03:22 UTC) Moonrise 6:42AMMoonset 7:32PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ149 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 355 Pm Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 40 degrees...off cleveland 39 degrees and off erie 38 degrees.
LEZ149 Expires:201703290215;;224697 FZUS51 KCLE 281955 NSHCLE NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 355 PM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LEZ147>149-290215-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kcle 282332
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
732 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
A ridge of high pressure will build east across the great lakes
through Wednesday night. A low pressure system will move east
out of missouri to lake erie by Friday and to the delaware coast
by Saturday morning. Another ridge of high pressure will build
east across the area Sunday and to the east coast by Monday.

Another area of low pressure will move east across the ohio
valley Monday night into Tuesday.

Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/
Minor adjustments to hourly temperature and sky cover trends,
otherwise no major changes to the forecast with this update.

Held on to cloud cover a little longer. Latest satellite shows
clearing line down to near kdtx. Expect the clearing trend from
north to south to be slow tonight, especially across the eastern
half of the area with low clouds lingering a bit further
upstream.

Original discussion...

low pressure continues to move east away from the area at the
surface. Rain associated with the low is also well east of the
area as well. High pressure will continue to build into the
local area tonight allowing low clouds to gradually decrease in
areal coverage. Latest satellite imagery shows some breaks in
the lower cloud deck allowing Sun to penetrate to the surface
over the lake. This is a result of drier air in the lower levels
to push south into the region. Some cold air advection will
take place causing temperatures to drop into the lower to middle
30s.

Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Friday night/
Models are still struggling to come into agreement over the next
few days. The GFS is still the most aggressive with the moisture
and timing of the precipitation over the last several runs. The
gfs brings the precipitation well into the area during the day
Thursday while the rest of the models hold off until late
afternoon Thursday into Thursday night. Will lean in the
direction of the slower timing and areal coverage and keep at
chance of precipitation Thursday afternoon in the west and the
bulk of the precipitation later Thursday night.

Low pulls out to the east Friday and pulls the precipitation to
the east with it by Friday night.

Temperatures are expected to be on the increase through Friday
as warm air advection takes place in advance of the low pressure
system. Question is, how warm will it get in advance of the low
Friday. If dry slot wraps in like some models suggest, then
there is the possibility that I may be under cutting
temperatures for highs.

Cold air advection takes place Friday night in the wake of the
low pressure system as lows drop back into the 30s.

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/
High pressure will build over the area behind the departing system
on Saturday. Cool northerly flow off the lake will keep temperatures
in the upper 40s and lower 50s with low clouds trying to clear out
through the day. Despite some increase in high cloud on Sunday,
better insolation should allow for a warming trend to develop.

Locations near lake erie may struggle to get out of the 40s with
continued east/northeast flow but most inland areas should push
into the mid and upper 50s.

Upper level ridge expands over the area on Sunday with another upper
level low moving out of the plains across the lower to mid
mississippi valley into Monday. Based on the current model
tracks, moisture should increase across the region on Monday
with chances of showers continuing into Tuesday. Will wait for
higher confidence in track before going with anything more than
just a chance of rain.

Aviation /00z Wednesday through Sunday/
Low level moisture is trapped over the region as high pressure
builds into the region at the surface and aloft. Believe most
locations will remain MVFR through the night. There will be
areas of ifr across inland TAF sites. If northern areas can
clear at all overnight we will need to monitor for some fog.

Current thinking is that the opportunity for fog will be small
as northeast winds begin to increase overnight. However will
monitor NW oh closely with low level moisture off of lake erie
possibly assisting with fog development. This will all hinge on
the amount of clearing that can drift into that region later
tonight.

Winds will become northeasterly for all locations overnight
with speeds increasing to around 10 knots toward sunrise.

Outlook... Non-vfr developing Thursday and continuing into
Friday. Non-vfr possible through Saturday morning NE oh and nw
pa.

Marine
High pressure will expand across the eastern great lakes through
Wednesday maintaining northeast winds of 5 to 15 knots on lake
erie. Easterly winds will increase on the lake on Thursday as
the gradient tightens between high pressure over eastern canada
and low pressure approaching from the plains. Easterly winds are
expected to reach 20 to 25 knots on Thursday and a small craft
advisory will likely be needed on the western basin into
Thursday night when winds veer to the south. The low pressure
system will make slow eastward progress across northern ohio on
Friday, pulling a cold front south across the lake in its wake.

Northerly winds are not expected to be much more than 15 knots
with the front but the onshore flow will lead to choppy
conditions in the nearshore waters. High pressure will build
across the lake over the weekend.

Cle watches/warnings/advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lombardy
near term... Greenawalt/lombardy
short term... Lombardy
long term... Kec
aviation... Mullen
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi53 min W 4.1 G 5.1
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 27 mi63 min WSW 6 G 7 39°F 1020.7 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi83 min NW 11 G 11 37°F 1020.8 hPa (+2.4)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 51 mi123 min NW 9.9 G 13 39°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
Last
24hr
SE4
E5
E4
E6
E4
NE6
NE9
G12
NE6
NE8
G11
E5
G8
N3
G6
N18
N12
N2
--
NW4
W6
W11
W11
W6
W6
NW11
NW11
N4
G7
1 day
ago
S17
G24
S12
G15
S11
G14
S11
S8
G11
SW10
G13
SW16
SW19
SW16
SW13
G16
SW17
SW18
SW16
SW17
W11
W7
SW7
W8
SW8
SW4
SW2
S2
SE3
SE3
2 days
ago
E16
NE15
NE19
NE18
NE20
NE23
NE20
NE21
NE21
E19
SE10
G16
SE13
G17
S14
G20
S12
G15
S9
G16
SW11
G14
SW3
E6
E13
N7
E4
SE5
S6
S11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi32 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist42°F39°F89%1020.8 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
Last 24hrS3S3S3NE3CalmCalmN5NE5CalmNE5NE5N5N4NE10N10NE11NE7NE4CalmW3CalmW4CalmCalm
1 day agoS17
G24
S15
G24
S14S12S12S12
G18
S12S7SW5W7SW6W10
G19
W10
G17
W14
G19
W10
G17
W8W10
G18
W10W93CalmS3S3S3
2 days agoNE11NE9NE8NE10NE7NE9NE7NE6NE56SE11
G18
S16
G23
S14
G23
SE13
G22
S12
G20
S13
G22
S12
G22
S7CalmE4S10
G18
S12S11S18
G23

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (23,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.