Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:12PM Monday September 25, 2017 12:25 AM EDT (04:25 UTC) Moonrise 11:25AMMoonset 9:36PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 958 Pm Edt Sun Sep 24 2017
Overnight..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds less than 10 knots becoming north. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday. The water temperature off toledo is 70 degrees...off cleveland 68 degrees and off erie 68 degrees.
LEZ149 Expires:201709250815;;886777 FZUS51 KCLE 250158 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 958 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>149-250815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 250130
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
930 pm edt Sun sep 24 2017

Synopsis
High pressure anchored over the eastern great lakes will weaken and
shift east Tuesday. This will allow low pressure to track across
the northern lakes, forcing a cold front across the area Wednesday
evening.

Near term through Monday
Same ole same ole. Strong upper ridge remains anchored over the
forecast area. Expect clear skies with temps from the upper 50s
into the lower 60s. Could see a little patchy morning fog.

Modeled tonight's lows after last nights but warming them a
degree or two and took a look at the potential for a few more
clouds Monday. Boundary layer moisture increases and we should
be able to see some scattered cumulus development.

See climate section below for Sunday's highs and the records for
the next two days.

No changes with this mid evening update.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
Models remain in good agreement with the strong upper ridge over the
forecast area through the early part of the work week. Dry
conditions and well above normal temps continue.

Not many changes to the short term again today. Tuesday will be
dry... Sunny and warm as high pressure lingers over the region. See
no reason why temps won't reach 90 degrees yet again over much of
the area. The cold front is still on track for Wednesday. The
model are not very excited about the potential for precip. This
seems reasonable given how dry the airmass will be. For the second
day in a row will trim precip chances back and go with no more than
20ish pops in the east. Will also keep wedneday night and Thursday
night dry even with decent cold air advection ongoing. It should
just be too dry for showers to develop. Given the airmass change
have stayed fairly close to guidance for temps on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
Some disagreement on the timing of the front on Friday but a it
looks to be a relatively strong cold front associated with a sharp
short wave progged to dive south across the great lakes.

Temperatures could sneak up ahead of the front on Friday, perhaps
pushing 70 in some areas, but much cooler air will follow Friday
night into Saturday. Moisture will be limited with the system with
the best chance for lake enhanced showers in the snowbelt. The lake
effect showers will probably linger into Saturday in the snowbelt as
850 mb temperatures are progged to drop to between 3-5c. The models
are trending to a short lived trough as heights are progged to begin
rising on Sunday. High temperatures may struggle to get much above
60 on Saturday but recover toward normal on Sunday.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
High pressure remains across the terminals with continued fair
weather. Lake breeze pushed well inland and also supplied some
increased low level moisture to tol. So in addition to having a
period of MVFR vsby toward dawn, have also added a brief tempo
for ifr. Monday boundary layer moisture increases and we should
see few sct cumulus development around 5k feet. Light easterly
winds with another lake breeze expected tomorrow.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible in patchy morning fog Tuesday
morning. Non-VFR possible Wednesday evening Thursday in
shra tsra with a cold front Wednesday evening. This will usher
in much cooler temperatures Thursday and flow off of the lake.

Non-vfr possible Friday with secondary front.

Marine
High pressure over the eastern great lakes will remain in place into
early Wednesday with quiet weather continuing on the lake. Winds
will remain variable under 10 knots the next couple of days. Winds
will become onshore in the nearshore waters each day. A cold front
will push southeast of the lake on Wednesday with winds quickly
becoming northerly. There is a brief window for close to small
craft conditions late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Another front
will cross the lake on Friday and small craft conditions appear
likely at that time. Winds Thursday and Friday will be north to
northwest.

Climate
Highs for Sunday were:
akron-canton regional airport reached 92 degrees. This ties the
record high for september 24 last set on this date in 1908.

Cleveland hopkins airport reached 93 degrees. This sets a new
record high for september 24. The previous record was 90 degrees
set on this date in 2010.

Mansfield lahm regional airport reached 89 degrees. This ties
the record high for september 24 last set on this date in 2010
and 1934.

Toledo express airport reached 92 degrees. This ties the record
high for september 24 last set on this date in 1891.

Youngstown-warren regional airport reached 91 degrees. This
ties the record high for september 24 last set on this date in
1936.

Upcoming records for the next 2 days 25th 26th:
tol 91 1891 92 1998
cak 92 1908 89 1900
mfd 88 2007 87 1998
cle 88 2007 91 1998
eri 89 1933 89 1998
yng 91 2007 89 1934

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Djb
near term... Djb oudeman
short term... Djb kubina
long term... Kosarik
aviation... Oudeman
marine... Kubina
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi34 minESE 410.00 miFair76°F64°F69%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3S3CalmCalmNW4NW3N7N7N5N6N6NE7NE6NE4CalmE3CalmSE4
1 day agoCalmS3CalmCalmS5S4S3S4N4N4NE3CalmCalmNW4N5CalmN5CalmCalmS3S3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmN3CalmN46N5NE7NE8NE7NE4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.