Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 7:44PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 3:11 PM EDT (19:11 UTC) Moonrise 7:18AMMoonset 8:44PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 352 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Today..North winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 20 knots becoming northeast. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 20 knots becoming southeast. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 40 degrees...off cleveland 38 degrees and off erie 38 degrees.
LEZ149 Expires:201703291415;;249179 FZUS51 KCLE 290752 NSHCLE NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 352 AM EDT WED MAR 29 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LEZ149-291415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 291727
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
127 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will slide across the great lakes today and off the
east coast on Thursday. Low pressure from the southwestern
states will cross the mississippi valley by late Thursday and
pass over the local area on Friday. Cooler air will spread
across the area Friday night and Saturday as the low shifts off
the east coast.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Locations that cleared out early have seen a nice jump in
temperatures with the late march sun. Raised highs a few degrees
across most inland areas. Temperatures closer to lake erie
should peak soon and either hold steady or even start to drop
off as northeast winds increase slightly this afternoon.

Original "today" discussion...

high pressure will cross the eastern great lakes with the flow
veering northeast. The northeast flow is a forecast challenge
since the wind will be off lake erie all day. Stratus remains
upstream all the way to near lake ontario so it will take a
while to flush out the clouds. Areas of northwest oh that have
cleared will likely see the low clouds return except perhaps the
toledo area. The model soundings show a lot of subsidence by
the afternoon so we should improve. With the high Sun angle,
once we start mixing and drying, we should see decent
dissipation of the clouds this afternoon. The days are long and
areas that see enough sunshine will see temperatures recover
into the lower 50s except 40s near lake erie. High clouds will
begin to increase mid/late afternoon especially northwest oh.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Saturday night/
High clouds will continue to increase tonight. The east wind will
likely not become calm. Forecast lows will be a degree or two higher
than guidance.

Not a lot of confidence on the timing of the arrival of the showers.

The deep upper low from the southwest will begin to lift out while a
relatively strong jet slides across the great lakes on Thursday.

This will produce increasing divergence aloft while at the same time
warm advection increases as the low level jet begins to increase.

The boundary layer will remain relatively dry and the upper
low/trough will remain well to the west. Given the uncertainty,
the best option may be to increase the pop from west to east
through the day. Most of the models hint that an initial line of
convection will push across the midwest and could reach western
ohio Thursday afternoon although it will probably be weakening.

Will have the highest pop across northwest ohio in the afternoon.

The showers should spread east Thursday night into early Friday and
should be widespread with deep gulf moisture, good dynamics and a
good low level jet. The best CAPE is elevated but there could
be thunder, especially as the occluded front approaches later
Thursday night.

The occluded front should move across the eastern counties Friday
but the upper low will reach northwest ohio and there should be
additional showers developing. The atmosphere will begin to turn
cooler and more stable although lapse rates will get steeper. Will
leave thunder out for now.

Cold advection will increase by Friday night into Saturday. The
north to northwest flow does not bode well for warmth and high
temperatures on Saturday will hold in the 40s in most areas.

Subsidence will increase but we could easily hang on to stratocumulus
especially across northeast oh and northwest pa.

Long term /Sunday through Tuesday/
Split flow pattern continues through the long term which means we
get a system across the ohio valley every few days. Monday
night/Tuesday appears to be the next after canadian high pressure
resides across the great lakes Sunday into Monday. While there is
some timing/track differences... There is somewhat better than
average agreement/consistency with this system. Will take it and
bump up precip chances for Monday night in particular. Once again if
this take a track south of the lake then temperatures could vary
greatly with the cool flow off of the lake. Will have the inland areas
climb into the lower 60s for mon/tue.

Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/
One fair weather day giving way to another round of inclement
weather over the next 24 hours. High pressure over the local
area will move east and allow low pressure to move into the
region. Expecting lowering ceilings and visibilities along with
some rain shower activity to move into the area west to east.

Best chance for weather will be in the west during the late
morning tomorrow. Lower chances will be in the east. Ceilings
will drop to ifr/MVFR west by morning. Otherwise, expecting
mostlyVFR over the east through this TAF period.

Outlook... Non-vfr continuing into Friday. Non-vfr possible
Sunday night into Monday.

Marine
High pressure extends southward across the northern and eastern
lakes today keeping winds from a northerly direction. Tonight that
high shifts east and low pressure will be approaching the ohio
valley for Thursday/Friday. Winds will respond on the lake and we
will have an extended period of northeast winds from tonight through
Thursday night. With a long fetch and enough of a gradient,
winds/waves will likely be enough to initiate a small craft advisory
Thursday. An inverted trough extending northeast from the low may
bring winds around to the south at least across the east end of the
lake Friday, but as the low passes across central ohio, winds will
come around to the north by Friday night/Saturday. High pressure
wraps up the weekend.

Cle watches/warnings/advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kosarik
near term... Kec/kosarik
short term... Kosarik
long term... Oudeman
aviation... Lombardy
marine... Oudeman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi41 min N 4.1 G 5.1
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 27 mi44 min NNE 5.1 G 7 37°F 1024.7 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi71 min W 4.1 G 4.1 38°F 1025 hPa (-0.9)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 51 mi51 min NNE 6 G 8 37°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi80 minN 610.00 miFair46°F33°F61%1024.7 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE4CalmW3CalmW4CalmCalmCalmN6NE6NE6NE4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N5N5N6N9
1 day agoW10
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W10W93CalmS3S3S3S3S3S3NE3CalmCalmN5NE5CalmNE5NE5N5N4NE10N10NE11
2 days agoS12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.