Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 6:35PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 4:34 PM EDT (20:34 UTC) Moonrise 4:08AMMoonset 4:54PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 336 Am Edt Tue Oct 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am edt this morning through late tonight...
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday. The water temperature off toledo is 65 degrees...off cleveland 67 degrees and off erie 64 degrees.
LEZ149 Expires:201710171445;;983126 FZUS51 KCLE 170736 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 336 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ145>149-171445-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 171921
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
321 pm edt Tue oct 17 2017

Synopsis
Expansive area of high pressure will remain over the ohio valley
through Friday before shifting to the new england coast. An upper
level ridge strengthens aloft Thursday into Friday bringing
another stretch of warm and dry conditions to end the week.

Near term through Wednesday night
Quiet weather pattern continues through Wednesday night as high
pressure remains over the region. Only change of significance to
the forecast regards high temperatures on Wednesday. Bumped up
highs a few degrees from previous forecast, and a bit warmer
than a consensus blend of raw guidance. Highs today have
overachieved guidances by a degree or two, and expect the trend
to continue tomorrow, especially with continued waa, full sun
expected and 850mb-925mb temps a few degrees warmer than today.

Expect many areas to at least touch 70 degrees tomorrow. Kept
frost out of the forecast tonight, with outlying areas from
marion to mt. Vernon to wooster possibly dipping into the upper
30s again tonight. However, winds should be up enough to
preclude any widespread frost formation.

Short term Thursday through Saturday
High pressure will be located over the southern appalachians on
Thursday as a weak cold front approaches lake erie from the
north. It appears the front will stall north of the lake. High
pressure then moves back into the area at the surface and aloft
by Friday and persists into Saturday.

Above normal temperatures will continue through the short term
period with highs into the 70s. The warmest day of the short term
will be Saturday with highs at many locations touching the middle
70's.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday
The long term will bring changes to the area, ending the stretch of
fair weather with a sweeping cold front early next week. Strong jet
energy off of the pacific northwest will translate across the
country and dig a trough across the great lakes and northeast into
mid week. The current cold front timing takes it across the local
area on Monday. Have increased precip chances above blended guidance
with a good tap of gulf moisture, but timing may still be an issue.

Will likely see fluctuation in timing as there is some indication of
a split flow possibility. For temperatures took a blend of guidance
which takes us from lower 70s Sunday down to upper 50s around 60 for
Tuesday. With the trough, cooler air, and flow off of the lake, have
precip chances continuing into Tuesday.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions will continue through the TAF cycle with high
pressure over the ohio valley. Gusty southwest winds this
afternoon to 20 knots will subside a bit overnight, with winds
in the 5-10 knot range.

Outlook... Non-vfr in morning fog for inland locations possible
early Friday morning.

Marine
Southwesterly winds will remain in the 15 to 25 knot range into the
night with waves greater then 4 feet for the eastern half of the
lake. Water levels across the western basin continue to drop and are
very close to reaching levels that are low enough to impact
shipping. Will watch this very closely and issue a low water
statement if needed. Winds will decrease this evening into the
overnight so the water levels should rise shortly. Another weakening
cold front will sag toward the lake from central ontario on Thursday
with the pressure gradient tightening. This will once again increase
the southwesterly winds with a small craft advisory possible for the
east half of the lake. High pressure increases its influence on
Friday with light winds expected.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Wednesday for lez145>149.

Synopsis... Greenawalt
near term... Greenawalt
short term... Mullen
long term... Oudeman
aviation... Greenawalt
marine... Mullen


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi47 min W 12 G 20
45167 6 mi56 min WSW 19 G 25 63°F 67°F5 ft
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 27 mi35 min W 16 G 20 63°F 1022 hPa (-2.0)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi35 min WSW 23 G 27 61°F 1021 hPa (-2.4)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 51 mi75 min W 22 G 24 63°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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W8
G13
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G10
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G14
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G14
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G16
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G16
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G16
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SW12
G19
SW15
G19
SW24
G29
SW21
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W21
1 day
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W38
W38
W36
W30
NW28
NW28
NW28
NW19
G24
NW22
G29
NW19
G23
NW17
G22
NW20
G26
N18
G24
N16
G20
N15
G19
N16
G20
N15
G19
N14
G20
NW13
G19
NW13
G16
NW14
G18
NW11
G14
NW12
NW8
G11
2 days
ago
NE8
NE8
NE11
NE16
NE18
G22
E13
E7
SE3
S7
G10
S14
G17
S12
G19
S14
G22
S18
G22
S15
G23
S15
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S14
G23
S17
G26
S21
G29
SW23
G29
SW22
G33
SW20
G25
SW22
W31
G41

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi44 minWSW 11 G 2010.00 miFair63°F42°F47%1022.5 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NW7W8NW5N7N5S5S3S5S6S6S5S7S8S10S9S13S14
G19
SW13
G18
S14
G19
W11
G22
SW9
G19
SW10SW11
G20
1 day agoW18
G34
W13
G26
W18
G27
W16
G25
NW15
G23
NW14
G25
N16
G23
NW13
G24
N10
G18
N11
G19
N9
G19
N10N9N6N8NW9N6N6NW10
G16
NW10N9NW11
G14
NW8NW9
2 days agoNE5NE6N6N6E8NE4S6S9S11S14
G22
S17
G22
S12
G22
S20
G26
S16
G25
S15
G23
S18
G26
S18
G25
S16S24
G32
SW20
G29
SW23
G30
SW17
G32
SW16
G32
W18
G29

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.