Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:44PM Friday May 24, 2019 7:02 PM EDT (23:02 UTC) Moonrise 12:07AMMoonset 9:51AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:201905250215;;398731 Fzus51 Kcle 242012 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 412 Pm Edt Fri May 24 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez147>149-250215- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 412 Pm Edt Fri May 24 2019
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A slight chance of showers early. A chance of showers late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet decreasing to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees, off cleveland 55 degrees and off erie 55 degrees.
LEZ149


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 242225
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
625 pm edt Fri may 24 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over the eastern great lakes this evening will
move off to the east as a warm front pushes north across the
area overnight. A cold front will move south across the area on
Sunday and will then return back north on Monday as a warm
front. Low pressure will move through the central great lakes on
Tuesday into Wednesday and force a cold front across the area
on Wednesday night.

Near term through Saturday night
Latest radar and satellite data show nice circulation moving
east across southern lake huron at this time in response to
upper level positive vorticity maximum. This feature and
associated positive vorticity advection (pva) and moisture have
been producing some scattered shower activity across the area
albeit very light. The best PVA appears to be pushing east at
this time and therefore the resultant showers appear to be
weakening to the west as well. Negative vorticity advection will
begin to push east during the rest of the evening and this
should help suppress any more showers for a period of time.

Surface high pressure over the area at this time will continue
to push east this evening and this will allow warm front just
to the south of the area to push north tonight. Surface analysis
shows warmer air beginning to push north into lima,ohio and will
continue to move north into western portions of the forecast
area over the next few hours. Dewpoints are also beginning to
increase in this area. This trend will occur over the rest of
the area this evening and overnight. Temperatures may dip a few
degrees this evening and then begin to warm up through the night
if clouds stay in and push of warm air is faster than models
suggest. Will monitor this trend over next few hours.

Previous discussion...

while high pressure and an upper ridge reside over the region
this afternoon, some moisture moving over the top of the ridge
is allowing for a couple scattered rain showers to impact some
of the lakeshore areas. These showers should wane later this
evening as the ridge axis crosses over the region. Later
tonight, the warm front lifts north over the forecast area and
could be the focus for some rain development over the same areas
after midnight tonight. With the warm front lifting north across
the area, expect a non-diurnal temperature trend and low
temperatures will be achieved early in the night with increasing
temperatures behind the front.

Saturday presents an interesting weather day over the region.

With the warm front north of the area, temperatures will surge
into the 80s. Good mixing behind the front with the warm
air advection will allow for breezy conditions with wind gusts
to 25-30 mph in the warm sector. With the warm conditions in
place, some diurnal convection may be expected during the late
morning and early afternoon hours. While weakly forced, up to
2000 j kg of CAPE will be in place over the region at this time
and some stronger storms may be possible. Later Saturday
evening, another round of convection remains likely more in line
with a trough moving north of the area and lift in association
with the right entrance region of the upper jet. This round of
convection appears to be better supported dynamically than the
first, but the question remains on if the area will be worked
over from any earlier showers and thunderstorms. Generally
speaking, it appears that showers and thunderstorms should be
expected tomorrow and the severe threat remains conditional and
something to watch going forward.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
Models indicate the frontal boundary will start off overhead on
Sunday before shifting south of the area during the afternoon. The
initial location of the front on Sunday morning will be somewhat
dependent on convection the night before. Shortwave energy will
round the ridge aloft on Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms
developing overhead. The 12z 24 NAM is an outlier with a compact
wave riding along the front across central ohio but suspect this
solution is overdone. However, lots of moisture will remain with pw
values near 1.6 inches and dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees so expecting good coverage of showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon. Instability may be a limiting factor given the
cloud cover but 40-50 knots of bulk shear ahead of the shortwave
moving through the flow aloft so will need to keep an eye on any
thunderstorms that develop. There is a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms focused south of route 30.

The boundary settles south Sunday night as high pressure builds east
across the great lakes. Marginal rises in water levels can be
expected along the west half of lake erie with easterly winds of 10-
15 knots. The warm front will lift back north on Monday with a
chance of showers or thunderstorms along the warm front Monday
afternoon and lifting northeast across the area Monday night. This
should leave the area primarily in the warm sector on Tuesday with
breezy southwest winds and temperatures in the 80s.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
The second half of the week will start off warm before the ridge
breaks down with temperatures settling back closer to normal by
Friday. Low pressure will track across the upper great lakes towards
james bay on Wednesday with upper level energy spilling around the
ridge and likely kicking off convection across the area. The initial
cold front will follow on Wednesday night but a stronger push of
cold advection does not arrive until later Thursday. High pressure
will build in by Friday bringing near seasonal temperatures and dry
conditions.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
High pressure over the eastern great lakes region will allow for
vfr conditions to continue through the afternoon and evening
hours. A mid-level deck of clouds has overtaken the region this
afternoon as the remnants of some showers and storms earlier
this morning in indiana. A warm front lies to the south of the
area and will slowly lift north this evening and pass north of
the area overnight. Ahead of the front, some scattered showers
may develop, but the airmass remains fairly dry, so coverage
will be fairly limited and will omit from the tafs. Behind the
front, winds will shift around to the south and become fairly
breezy as there will be some good mixing and ceilings should be
scattered in the warm sector. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected in the region on Saturday afternoon and evening and
have begun a vicinity thunder mention at kcle for the end of the
30 hour TAF period.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible in thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

Marine
A period of unsettled conditions is expected over the weekend as a
frontal boundary wobbles north and south across the lake bringing
several rounds of thunderstorms. Onshore winds this evening will
shift to the south on Saturday as a warm front lifts north across
lake erie. Southerly winds will shift to the southwest or west by
evening with a window of choppy conditions and 2 to 4 foot waves
east of cleveland. Winds or waves could be enhanced by thunderstorm
activity moving south out of canada. A cold front will settle south
on Sunday with northwest winds of 10 knots or less veering to
northeast Sunday night. Easterly winds of 10-15 knots on Monday
morning will result in minor rises in water level on the western
basin of lake erie before another warm front lifts across the lake
with winds shifting to southwesterly. Breezy southwest winds are
expected Tuesday into Wednesday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Sefcovic
near term... Lombardy sefcovic
short term... Kec
long term... Kec
aviation... Sefcovic
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi32 min W 6 G 11
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi62 min SW 8.9 G 12 57°F 1021.2 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi71 minW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy63°F48°F60%1021.5 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW16
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W85CalmCalmW5W5SE4S3S3SW4W6W64W9W7SW5W3W6W5W6E6
1 day agoW7
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SE4S5S11S13S12S12S10S12S9S12S8S7S9
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2 days agoW3CalmCalmCalmE4E3CalmS3E4NE3E4CalmSE9SE13
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SE8NW3SE6SE16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.