Friday, May25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:46PM Friday May 25, 2018 2:50 PM EDT (18:50 UTC) Moonrise 3:45PMMoonset 3:02AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 511 Am Edt Fri May 25 2018
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 knots or less. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..South winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 63 degrees...off cleveland 52 degrees and off erie 52 degrees.
LEZ149 Expires:201805251415;;496249 FZUS51 KCLE 250911 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 511 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>149-251415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 251717
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
117 pm edt Fri may 25 2018

Synopsis
High pressure centered along the east coast will provide a warm,
south flow to the area. A weakening low pressure system and cold
front will dissipate as it crosses the great lakes over the
weekend. Surface high pressure will expand east across the area
on Monday.

Near term through Saturday
No changes for the noon update.

Original near term discussion...

directly under the ridge aloft today while the surface high has
shifted east. The models continue to show a plume of lower level
moisture spreading north up the appalachians and across the ohio
valley. With strong subsidence aloft and no trigger, the end result
will probably be just fair weather cumulus in the southeast counties
from mount vernon to canton and perhaps along the lake breeze
boundary as it develops east of cleveland this afternoon.

Temperatures always over achieve under the ridge and especially this
time of year with the long days high Sun angle. The high temperature
forecast will be at the high end of guidance or above, mostly
in the mid upper 80s except where the winds come onshore along
the east lakeshore.

Winds will be light tonight but many areas will keep a light
south breeze and temperatures will be warmer than recent nights
with lows mostly in the 60s.

On Saturday we will be in the squeeze play. The deeper moisture and
corresponding increase in instability will likely fire off showers
and thunderstorms near and over the appalachians by afternoon. The
approaching trough weak cold front from the west will produce a
scattering of showers and thunderstorms which should push in from
the west. Eventually we will see the activity fill in across
the forecast area. Will use scattered wording for the most part.

Temps should still be warm, maybe a degree or two cooler due to the
clouds and approaching trough.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
Ongoing showers and thunderstorms Saturday night should wane with
the loss of diurnal heating, with most of the activity confined to
the eastern part of the area with the passage of a weak trough. More
diurnally driven convection is possible Sunday, however a lack of
forcing precludes any pops higher than low chance slight chance
across the southeastern half of the area. A secondary cold front
will slip southeast across the area Sunday night into Monday, a
little faster than previous forecasts. Have opted for some low
chance pops across the area Sunday night, with some of the higher
res guidance more aggressive with development ahead of the front.

Any lingering precip Monday should end fairly quickly, with dry
conditions into Monday night as high pressure builds into the area.

Temperatures will be well above normal, with highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s Sunday and Monday, which is a few degrees higher than
previous forecast and close to the warmer MOS guidance.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday
The aforementioned cold front will become diffuse and wash out just
south of the area on Tuesday Tuesday night, with ridging quickly
building east across the region. The ridge will be centered over the
mid atlantic coast by Wednesday, with return flow WAA regime across
the area. Attention turns to a potential gulf system moving
northward toward the ohio valley on Wednesday Wednesday night. Model
difference are large with the track intensity of the system, however
medium confidence that some tropical moisture will surge into the
area by the end of the period. Have opted for chance pops Wednesday
night through Thursday to account for this. Temperatures may be a
touch cooler through mid week, but highs still expected to reach the
low mid 80s, possibly upper 80s Tuesday, which is several degrees
above normal for this time of year.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
High pressure extending west into the ohio valley from the mid
atlantic coast will slowly weaken tonight and into Saturday.

Meanwhile low pressure will continue to drop slowly into the
western great lakes. Ssw flow between the two systems will
eventually result in increased low level moisture across the
region... Mainly on Saturday. For this evening and overnight
expect continuedVFR conditions with mostly clear skies and
light winds. Late tonight expecting mid and higher clouds to
increase from the west as an upper disturbance approaches.

Saturday expecting a much more prevalent cumulus deck with
afternoon and evening scattered thunderstorms. Should be
primarilyVFR on Saturday but expect MVFR ifr restrictions in
any thunderstorms.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible Saturday evening through Sunday.

Marine
Quiet conditions continue on the lake today with high pressure
centered west of the great lakes off the mid atlantic coast. Winds
will remain southerly through the weekend, generally 10 kts or less.

A cold front will push south across the lake late Sunday night into
Monday, with winds shifting to northerly by Wednesday night. The
front will wash out south of the region, with high pressure centered
across new england and low pressure moving north out of the gulf of
mexico keeping winds out of the east around 10 kts Tuesday through
Wednesday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kosarik
near term... Tk kosarik
short term... Greenawalt
long term... Greenawalt
aviation... Tk
marine... Greenawalt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi81 min W 4.1 G 7
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 27 mi73 min W 8 G 12 65°F 1014.6 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi111 min SW 11 G 13 65°F 1014.5 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi60 minW 810.00 miFair77°F51°F40%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7NW6W73CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmS4S6S5S3S5SW5S5S6S7S6SW6W9NW7W9W8
1 day agoW8W8W11W9W10SW7SW4SW4S4S3S4S5S4S4S6S5CalmS3S3CalmCalmNW4W7NW7
2 days agoW6W8SW5W4S3W4W6SW3W8NW9SW3W4W6W3W4W4SW4W6W6W6W8SW85W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop



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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.