Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:39PM Monday March 25, 2019 1:25 AM EDT (05:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:16AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:201903250815;;874830 Fzus51 Kcle 250224 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 1024 Pm Edt Sun Mar 24 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez148-149-250815- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 1024 Pm Edt Sun Mar 24 2019
Overnight..West winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A slight chance of light rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less building to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday. The water temperature off toledo is 37 degrees, off cleveland 36 degrees and off erie 34 degrees.
LEZ149


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 250150
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
950 pm edt Sun mar 24 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will move from missouri to kentucky
tonight while a cold front draped across the central great lakes
sinks south across pa and oh. High pressure will push southeast
and encompass the local area from later Monday through
Thursday. The next front will approach the area Friday and
Saturday.

Near term through Monday night
Update... Did make a few minor pop weather changes but no
changes for the overnight update. Spotty light rain across the
area this evening. Precip should continue the next few hours
with best chances south and southwest. The hrrrr has the precip
becoming increasingly patchy during the early overnight hours
from the north as drier air moves in so will continue the
gradual decrease through the overnight hours.

Original... We are still very dry across the area and the bulk
of the precipitation has trended further south in the latest
guidance. Have pulled back on precip chances and confined the
likely or better area from bowling green to canton and points
south of there. Even that will only amount of a tenth of an inch
or less. Others may get a few drizzle drops light rain with the
front to our north to still press south, but much of the
forcing with this front is well out of the area. Most of the
precip will likely exit before temperatures become a concern,
but a few wet flakes may mix in. There is also a narrow window
of upslope drizzle if the lowest level moisture does not clear
out as quick as the models suggest. Otherwise dry air definitely
arrives for afternoon scattering out all the cloud cover and we
will have a sunny afternoon and clear Monday night. That north
wind though will be cool and after lows near freezing tonight,
will only get into the mid upper 30s close to the lake and
around 40 well inland and west.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday night
A very dry airmass will be overhead Tuesday and Wednesday as high
pressure builds from the great lakes to the new england coast.

Although we will have nearly full Sun on Tuesday, high temperatures
expected to be below normal with north to northeast flow. Winds will
drop to near calm on Tuesday night with chilly conditions and
temperatures in the lower 20s. By Wednesday a warming trend will get
underway as the flow shifts around to the south on the back side of
the high with temperatures reaching the lower 50s. The exception may
be along the immediate NE lakeshore where a lake breeze does look
possible and may limit temperatures to the upper 40s. Warm advection
pattern continues into Thursday with many sites making a run to 60
or better although with partly cloudy skies.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
By late this week the ridge aloft will be shunted southward as
another trough sets up over eastern canada. This will push a cold
front south to near lake erie on Thursday night where it will stall
into Friday. Meanwhile energy moving out of the western trough will
move through the westerly flow overhead bringing increasing moisture
advection. Chances of precipitation will remain low through this
time as long as the front does not make it farther south. The front
may even lift back north a little on Friday as low pressure takes
shape over the plains. Precipitation will eventually expand as low
pressure tracks along the frontal boundary in the Friday
night Saturday time frame, eventually pulling a cold front south
behind it. We will be monitoring the placement of the front through
the long term which will have a large impact on temperatures,
eventually trending back towards below normal over the
weekend.

Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Vfr across northern ohio and nwrn pa this evening with light
rain moving in from the west and a cold front dropping south
toward the area from the central great lakes. Best chance for
MVFR conditions will be kfdy and kmfd where moisture will be
best so have MVFR CIGS in a tempo group late tonight toward
morning. Did the same at kyng but otherwise expecting primarily
vfr. The cold front will drop in from the north after about 06z
with winds turning north northeast ktol kcle and keri with
about a three hour trek to reach south to kmfd. Expect rapid
clearing from north to south beginning 14z Monday as very dry
air moves in.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible Thursday night and Friday.

Marine
A cold front will settle south across lake erie late tonight into
Monday morning with north to northeast winds increasing to near 20
knots on the west half of lake erie. Will issue a short small craft
advisory late tonight through Monday morning from east of the
islands to geneva-on-the-lake as waves build to 3 t0 5 feet.

Another strong area of high pressure will build southeast out of
canada from Monday night through Wednesday night bringing a stretch
of good marine conditions. Southwest winds increase Thursday and
Friday ahead of the next cold front that will move south across lake
erie heading into next weekend.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 am to 4 pm edt Monday for
lez144>147.

Synopsis... Oudeman
near term... Tk oudeman
short term... Kec
long term... Kec
aviation... Tk
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi55 min N 7 G 9.9
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi25 min NE 9.9 G 11 35°F 1020.6 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi34 minN 710.00 miOvercast39°F32°F76%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW7S6SW7S8S7S5S9SW10SW7SW7W66W5W6W6W7SW5SW5SW7SW5SW7SW4N7
1 day agoNW10NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.