Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:44PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 1:06 AM EDT (05:06 UTC) Moonrise 3:41AMMoonset 5:07PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 956 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Overnight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday. The water temperature off toledo is 61 degrees...off cleveland 52 degrees and off erie 55 degrees.
LEZ149 Expires:201705230830;;054697 FZUS51 KCLE 230156 NSHCLE NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 956 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LEZ147>149-230830-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 230129
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
929 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the ohio valley will move off the east coast
on Tuesday. The next storm system will slowly move from the
mississippi valley across the great lakes Wednesday and
Thursday. High pressure will build in briefly Friday into
Saturday but another cold front is due this weekend.

Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/
Fair weather is expected tonight as high cloudiness increases.

Goes imagery shows cirrus spreading northeast from the system
over the tennessee valley. Made slight changes to cloud cover
and updated for current conditions.

Previous discussion... Only minor adjustments were made to the
forecast as fair weather prevails across the region as high
pressure slowly shifts away from the region. Cirrus over mainly
the east half of the area will thin for the next several hours
and then increase as more clouds associated with a short wave
rounding the base of a trough over the south central states
shifts towards the middle atlantic states. More clouds over the
mid mississippi valley will spread into NW ohio this evening as
another short wave near NW iowa digs southeast toward SE iowa by
morning. Current temperature forecast looks reasonable.

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday night/
The short wave should track across the central great lakes on
Tuesday. There has been a trend among most of the models to lower
the shower threat across northwest ohio for Tuesday. The air mass is
relatively dry and stable. The only thing that makes me nervous is
that we will be in the right entrance region of the jet on Tuesday
but I suspect that we would see a little virga rather than rain with
varying amounts of mid and high clouds. With 850 mb temps about 9-
10c and at least partial sunshine, we should be good for highs in
the lower to mid 70s.

The models are in surprisingly good agreement with the upper
features of the developing storm system midweek. A strong short
wave will carve the trough deeply into the mississippi valley on
Wednesday. The jet on the east side of the trough is
essentially progged to couple with the jet across the great
lakes. A broad area of upward motion will likely develop from
the lower ohio valley to the lower great lakes. A surface low
will develop within this zone and drift north until it gets
stacked within the upper trough and stalls. Not sure how fast
the showers will spread east but there certainly seems a good
chance for showers across northwest and north central ohio. Will
also mention thunder. Instability will probably not be too
impressive but with the strong upward motion this time of year
there will probably be at least some embedded thunder. High
temperatures depend on how quickly the rain develops. Will have
higher forecast highs across NE oh and NW pa where the showers
will take longer to develop.

By Thursday, the upper low/trough is progged to be overhead.

Showers will likely be more random. There could be a dry slot
but it is too early to try and get that specific with the
forecast. High temperatures will likely be in the 60s. Lower 60s
if there are enough showers, mid/upper 60s with enough dry
time.

Long term /Friday through Monday/
Active pattern setting up with waves through every couple of
days. Forecast problem is the timing since ECMWF and gfs
continue to differ on timing of the systems. Both models has
system exiting the area Friday with some lingering showers in
the east. After that models diverge. The ECMWF has next low
moving across southern ohio Saturday with the second wave moving
across the forecast area on Sunday. The GFS has the same trend
but the models is 6-8 hours faster. Leaned toward the slower
ecmwf simply because models have been a little fast on the
timing of the systems recently.

Aviation /00z Tuesday through Saturday/
Vfr through the TAF period. High pressure will shift east
tonight with light winds coming around to the south and then
east Tuesday afternoon. Expect a lake breeze for eri and cle
Tuesday. Next low pressure center will approach from the mid-
mississippi valley for Wednesday. Terminals will be on the
fringes of a mid deck by 00z wed.

Outlook... Non-vfr likely Wednesday and Thursday in showers and
tsra.

Marine
Winds are slowly diminishing as the surface ridge moves into the
upper ohio valley. Have cancelled the small craft advisory with
the diminishing trend continuing.

Winds will turn east-northeast Tuesday as the next low
approaches from the mid-mississippi valley and high pressure
shifts east. Expecting winds to remain below 15 knots Tuesday,
but will increase a bit more for Wednesday as the low deepens.

The western basin will likely be choppy at times. The low will
reach western lake erie Wednesday night and redevelop off the
east coast Thursday. High pressure returns over the lake for
Friday, shifting east for Saturday.

Cle watches/warnings/advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kosarik
near term... Laplante
short term... Kosarik
long term... Djb
aviation... Oudeman
marine... Djb/oudeman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi48 min S 5.1 G 7
45167 6 mi46 min S 7.8 G 9.7 58°F 56°F1 ft
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 27 mi66 min S 8 G 11 58°F 1015.2 hPa (-0.4)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi66 min S 6 G 9.9 57°F 1015.8 hPa (+0.0)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 51 mi86 min S 6 G 8.9 58°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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NE24
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G17
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G21

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi75 minS 610.00 miFair54°F43°F67%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S7SW5SW5SW8SW8W11
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1 day agoSE16SE15
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2 days agoNE10NE7NE11NE10NE13
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NE13NE9NE10NE10NE13NE13NE12NE12NE16
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NE18NE13NE16
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NE14NE17CalmE4SE9SE12
G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.