Monday, December18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:42AMSunset 4:52PM Monday December 18, 2017 4:10 AM EST (09:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:46AMMoonset 5:31PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 310 Am Est Mon Dec 18 2017
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 10 to 20 knots. A slight chance of rain with patchy drizzle this morning, then a chance of rain with patchy drizzle this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday. The water temperature off toledo is 34 degrees...off cleveland 40 degrees and off erie 39 degrees.
LEZ149 Expires:201712181515;;066738 FZUS51 KCLE 180810 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 310 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ145>149-181515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 180822
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
322 am est Mon dec 18 2017

Synopsis
A frontal boundary will remain north of the region today as
high pressure remains centered over the southeast us. Two weak
cold fronts will drop south across the area late Tuesday and
again on Wednesday. High pressure builds back across the region
on Thursday behind a warm front lifting north through the
region. Low pressure will track into the great lakes region on
Friday.

Near term through Tuesday
A damp, dreary yet fairly mild day is expected across the area
today, and a relatively humid airmass moves north across the
area. A weak disturbance will track east across the southern
great lakes through the day, which will allow for patchy drizzle
and a few light rain showers from west to east across the
forecast area. There could be some fog as well with the mild,
humid airmass eroding remaining snow cover, but the gradient
should be high enough to keep things fairly mixed, so will opt
for a patchy fog mention across portions of the area. Precip may
linger across northwest pa into tonight, and precip should
remain mostly liquid, although a few snow flakes cannot be ruled
out. Highs today will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with
cloudy skies. Lows tonight will not drop off too much, with
mid upper 30s expected. Strong southerly flow WAA will allow for
above normal temps on Tuesday, with highs in the mid 40s to
around 50 degrees south. A weak cold front will sink south
towards the region late in the day, with 850 temps dropping back
to -4c to -6c, so some possible lake effect may develop during
the late afternoon, primarily for the higher elevations of nw
pa.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
Most of the short term period will be quiet and uneventful as zonal
flow gets established over the eastern u.S. This will result in
mild weather developing. After seasonable temps
Wednesday... Highs on Thursday will average at least 5 degrees
above normal. A potent storm system will begin to approach from
the west on Thursday night. The 00z models have similar low
placement at 06z Friday and it looks like by daybreak Friday
precip will be approaching the i-75 corridor. Although the
precip could start as a rain snow mix it will quickly turn to
all rain.

Long term Friday through Sunday
The long term period will be active. Precip will spread across
the entire on Friday and will need likely wording many areas by
afternoon and all areas by Friday night. Suspect that even that
will eventually not be enough. A surface cold front will move
east of the area by daybreak Saturday and expect rain chances to
quickly diminish from west to east during the day. It appears
it will remain warm enough for all rain except perhaps at the
very western end of the area where a mix with snow is possible
just as the precip ends. No accumulation should occur. Some lake
effect is possible across NW pa Saturday night but it appears
that the atmosphere may be too dry for much if any accumulation.

Things get interesting on Sunday as the guidance all shows
another low pressure area approaching from the southwest. Some
warm air advection precip is possible by the end of the day
especially in the south. Precip type is still somewhat up in the
air.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
A very moist airmass will lift north and east across the region
early this morning through the day on Monday behind a warm front
that lifted north of the region Sunday evening. Confidence
increasing in a period of ifr ceilings overspreading the area
early to mid part of the period, given upstream observations and
good consensus in model guidance. A weak shortwave may bring
scattered light rain showers drizzle, but should have an overall
minimal impact on aviation interests. MVFR ifr conditions may
linger into the latter half of the period as a cold front sinks
back south towards the area. Winds will generally remain out of
the southwest through the period.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible northeast oh and northwest pa later
Tuesday into Wednesday.

Marine
South to southwest winds will continue till a cold front crosses the
lake sometime late Tuesday or Tuesday evening. Speeds today and
tonight should be mainly under 15 knots but sustained winds Tuesday
may peak out as high as 25 knots. Will likely need small craft
headlines at some point. Moderate westerly winds are expected
Tuesday night behind the front with the flow eventually weakening
and becoming northwest on Wednesday. By daybreak Thursday a surface
ridge will be east of the lake which will cause southeast flow to
develop. By daybreak Friday moderate southerly winds are expected
with possible small craft conditions. A strong cold front will be
just west of the lake at the end of the period.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Greenawalt
near term... Greenawalt
short term... Kubina
long term... Kubina
aviation... Greenawalt
marine... Kubina


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi40 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 27 mi70 min SSW 8.9 G 12 38°F 1016.6 hPa (-1.3)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi70 min SW 6 G 7 39°F 1017.2 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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W28
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G36
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SW16
G24
SW19
G23
SW29
G35

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi19 minS 99.00 miOvercast38°F32°F79%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE9NE4E4E5E7E3NE7CalmNE7NE7NE7E4CalmCalmCalmS5S10S6SW11S10S8S9S9
1 day agoSW15SW14
G21
SW10
G18
SW13SW12SW10SW9SW10W7N4NE5NE4NE6NE6E4E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E5E6
2 days agoS9S9S10S11S11S13S11S11S9S14
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S15SW16
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SW8SW13SW13
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.