Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 8:13PM Sunday August 20, 2017 5:05 PM EDT (21:05 UTC) Moonrise 4:07AMMoonset 6:37PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 948 Am Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
This afternoon..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The water temperature off toledo is 76 degrees...off cleveland 74 degrees and off erie 74 degrees.
LEZ149 Expires:201708202015;;674697 FZUS51 KCLE 201348 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 948 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ146>149-202015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 201930
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
330 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the region tonight will move east of the area on
Monday. Low pressure will move northeast across the great lakes
Tuesday, bringing a cold front across the region Tuesday night.

High pressure will build east across the region Wednesday
through the first half of the weekend.

Near term through Monday night
Lower confidence forecast tonight through Monday night as several
upstream mcs' will impact the weather across the region. Return flow
will continue to feed into the region as high pressure is now
centered east of the forecast area. Low level moisture increase
reflected in visible satellite picture as expansive CU field
blankets much of western ohio this afternoon. Some signs of isolated
convection beginning on latest radar scans, as 1000-2000 j kg sbcape
creeps up into the southern part of the forecast area. Although
forcing is minimal, with upstream MCV approaching the area from the
west, will opt for a few hours of slight chance pops through the
evening hours. Will terminate pops around 03z time frame, however
some guidance suggests convection may sustain a bit longer.

Nevertheless, any shower activity is expected to be very isolated
and concentrated from near marion to canton.

Forecast picture becomes a little more obscure late in the overnight
into Monday. Upstream MCV will cross in and move into oh during the
overnight. Models are developing convection off of the trailing
flank of this MCV somewhere in northern in. Currently forecasting
this activity to remain upstream, however cloud debris from this
convection could move into the area through the morning hours. The
debris clouds should diminish into the afternoon hours, with diurnal
cu developing across the area. Pops will slowly increase during the
afternoon on Monday, with slight chance pops for most locations.

Atmosphere will become very unstable, with models suggesting up to
2500-3000 j kg by late afternoon. Forcing remains conditional,as
upstream MCS remnants may track towards the area during the
afternoon. If this comes to fruition, a low end severe risk is
possible, with low mid level flow beginning to increase a bit, with
20-30 kts of low level shear. Most likely, if any convection forms
it would most likely be after 21z, but it is still very low
confidence with uncertainty in the upstream evolution tonight Monday
morning. No major changes to high temps tomorrow, with uncertainties
in cloud cover precip.

Main cold front upper trough will move toward the region Monday
night. Kept slight chance low chance pops around through the night,
but the bulk of precip activity will remain west of the area until
12z Tuesday.

Short term Tuesday through Thursday
Tuesday begins with models showing low pressure moving into
southeast ontario from the central lakes. A trailing cold front
will extend southwest across the lakes to west of chicago.

Moisture will be moving into the area from the southwest ahead
of this boundary and will continue with chance pops most places
through the morning and likely pops northwest. The front will
moves across the area through the afternoon and early evening
bringing showers and thunderstorms to most. Have boosted pops to
categorical for all areas through the afternoon with precip
ending from the northwest through the evening hours. Wednesday
begins dry however models show wrap around moisture dropping
across the area through the afternoon. With 850mb temps down
around +9c moving over the warm lake as well as general
instability provided by daytime heating below colder air aloft
will have 20% pops in place for the area and chance pops for
showers SE of the lake. Will drop lake effect pops to 20%
Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds in. Tuesday
temps near normal. Wednesday and Thursday will be below with
highs in the low to mid 70s.

Long term Thursday night through Sunday
Little change in the extended with a large area of high pressure
remaining the dominate weather feature. By Wednesday evening large
area of canadian high pressure centered over the northern lakes. The
high moves slowly across the lakes and moves off the new england
coast late Sunday. Expect mostly sunny conditions, highs mainly in
the 70s and lows mainly in the 50s. Model timing on the next
system still a little in doubt. ECMWF brings the next wave of
convection Sunday night while the GFS holds off until Monday. For
now will just go low chance pops in the west Sunday night.

Aviation 18z Sunday through Friday
High pressure will continue to slide east across the region. An
increase in low level moisture will result in some scattered cu,
with some models indicating potential for tsra shra from kmfd to
kcak. However, will continue to hold off on mention in TAF and
monitor radar for development. Some MVFR br possible at sites
around daybreak as winds go light. Tsra chances return late in
the period, but confidence is low this far out.

Outlook... Non-vfr likely in scattered showers tstms on Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

Marine
Marine wx looks fairly tranquil tonight through dawn Tuesday
and again Thursday through Friday with high pressure affecting
the region. Monday night into Tuesday morning models show low
pressure moving through the central great lakes toward
southeastern ontario. This will increase the pressure gradient
across lake erie causing southwest winds to increase to 15 to 25
knots Tuesday. The associated cold front will drop across the
lake Tuesday afternoon and evening turning winds northwest. Wind
speeds will drop a bit to 15 to 20 knots however northwest flow
will keep waves up on the lake. Wednesday high pressure will
build from the west slowly relaxing the gradient however waves
will remain up through much of the day before dropping off
Wednesday night. Expect a small craft advisory will be needed
from Tuesday morning into Wednesday night.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Greenawalt
near term... Greenawalt
short term... Tk
long term... Djb
aviation... Greenawalt
marine... Tk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi48 min NNW 8 G 8
45167 6 mi47 min N 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 76°F1 ft
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 27 mi44 min N 7 G 8.9 75°F 1019.6 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi66 min W 8 G 9.9 75°F 1019.8 hPa (+0.0)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 51 mi106 min NNE 6 G 7 74°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi75 minNNW 710.00 miFair77°F64°F66%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11
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W7W7NW6S4S3S5S5S6S5S5S6S5S6S7SW8S7CalmNW9NW8NW8N7
1 day agoW18
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SW86W6SW4SW4W9W9S4SW5SW5S5SW4SW5SW6SW8SW7W10W12
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2 days ago--CalmE4W5S7S10S11S12S12SW10SW8SW8S8S8S8S11SW11S14W9W16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.