Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 9:01PM Thursday June 22, 2017 8:00 PM EDT (00:00 UTC) Moonrise 3:38AMMoonset 6:21PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 346 Pm Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south. A slight chance of showers this evening...then a chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms after midnight. Showers with isolated Thunderstorms late. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 71 degrees...off cleveland 69 degrees and off erie 70 degrees.
LEZ149 Expires:201706230230;;651794 FZUS51 KCLE 221946 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 346 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ145>149-230230-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 222248
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
648 pm edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will lift across lake erie this evening.

Low pressure over the western lakes will move northeast into
canada by Friday, bringing a cold front east across the region.

A broad trough of low pressure will then remain over the area
through the weekend. High pressure at the surface will begin to
move in from the west Monday night into Tuesday.

Near term through Friday night
Broken line of convection that developed across NW oh has moved
north of the forecast area. Think for the rest of the evening
will be hit or miss with the heavier rain moving into the area
after midnight. So will continue with chance pops this evening.

Original discussion...

warm front located from southern michigan to NW pa. This
boundary should continue to lift northward through the evening
and be north of lake erie around midnight. The better shear and
instability was located across NW pa. If any storms get stronger
it will be across this area through early evening. Cant rule
out an isolated thunderstorm elsewhere in the warm sector.

Confidence in any thunderstorm development is low.

We will then watch the moisture advection increase ahead of low
pressure that will move into the central great lakes. There will
be tropical moisture into the area but the main focus appears to
be south of the county warning area until the cold front arrive
Friday afternoon into the evening. Locally heavy rainfall will
be possible but mainly across the eastern half of the area.

Drier air moves back into the region Friday night with
showers thunderstorms ending from west to east.

Warm tonight with the increased moisture. Lows will likely be
within a couple degrees of 70 at most locations. Humid on Friday
but with rain and cloud cover highs will be in the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Cooler Friday night in the wake of the cold front.

Lows should dip back into the 50s away from the lake.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
A surface cold front will move east with waves of low pressure
expected along the frontal boundary Friday night allowing ridge of
high pressure to build into the local area for Saturday. The ridging
will be dominant through the day Sunday and surface trough of low
pressure will begin to push south across the area Sunday.

Some weak cold air advection will take place Saturday and Sunday
with highs remaining on the mild side in the lower 70s. Lows during
the night will hover in the middle 50s.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Broad upper level troughiness will prevail through Tuesday night
over the eastern united states. Nearly zonal flow will setup by mid
week with a small shortwave trough advancing east into the eastern
portions of the united states by Wednesday and Thursday. Due to the
fast moving systems and long period of cyclonic flow expected across
the area aloft, the atmosphere will be in a chaotic state of change
through the forecast period.

Another wave of low pressure will move east across the forecast area
Monday into Tuesday and then shift east of the area Tuesday night.

Through this process, weak cold air advection will take place into
Tuesday. High pressure with a ridge extending north to the great
lakes will advance east Tuesday night into Wednesday allowing a
return back to warm air advection. Yet another low pressure system
will move quickly east across the central great lakes Thursday night
into Friday morning.

Limited instability is expected across the area through the period
with cold air advancing in during the early periods and this should
limit thunder threat. Then, as warm air advection moves in,
destabilization will take place across the area and increase threat
for thunderstorms.

Cold air advection early in the period will keep temperatures quite
cool. Highs by Thursday may wind up being under forecast due to the
potential for stronger warm air advection and if Sun has a chance to
break through the cloud cover and the showers and thunderstorms.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Most of the shower thunderstorm activity has shifted into ne
oh NW pa along a warm front. Expect most of it to end by late
afternoon. After a break in the precipitation we will await the
lift and moisture from what remains of the tropical depression.

Expect showers and a few thunderstorms to move south to north
into the area overnight with some lower MVFR ceilings also
expected.

Southerly winds will increase through the afternoon and then
remain around 12 knots through the overnight.

Outlook... Thunderstorms with heavy rain possible Friday. Low
chance of brief MVFR in showers Sunday into Monday with a cold
front.

Marine
Southwest flow will persist through Friday in the warm air
advection. A shift to a west northwest direction will take place
Friday afternoon as a cold front moves east of the area. Flow
should be light enough to support 2 to 4 foot waves and avoid small
craft advisories. Increasing winds will take place out of the west
by Saturday evening. May need small craft advisories in the western
half of the lake Saturday evening and over the entire lake by Sunday
morning in westerly flow. This flow will continue into Monday and
then fluctuate in speed through Tuesday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mullen
near term... Djb mullen
short term... Lombardy
long term... Lombardy
aviation... Mullen
marine... Lombardy mullen


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi60 min SSW 1.9 G 5.1
45167 6 mi61 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 75°F 72°F1 ft
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 27 mi60 min S 6 G 7 80°F 1011.2 hPa (-0.7)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi60 min SW 8.9 G 12 78°F 1010.9 hPa (+0.0)
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 51 mi100 min SSE 2.9 G 14 78°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi69 minS 710.00 miOvercast80°F69°F69%1010.9 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5CalmCalmCalmS4S3S4S4S3S3S8S6S8S10S7S7S10
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1 day agoSW4S5NW17
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CalmS7S6SW4S6S6S5SW5SW4SW3W5W8NW7W7W7W5NW8NW8NW8NW75
2 days agoW13
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W9W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.