Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 5:22PM Monday January 21, 2019 12:46 PM EST (17:46 UTC) Moonrise 6:07PMMoonset 8:06AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:201901212230;;700091 Fzus51 Kcle 211426 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 926 Am Est Mon Jan 21 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez145>149-212230- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 926 Am Est Mon Jan 21 2019
This afternoon..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of flurries. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow in the evening, then rain and snow overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday. The water temperature off toledo is 32 degrees, off cleveland 35 degrees and off erie 33 degrees.
LEZ149


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 211431
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
931 am est Mon jan 21 2019

Synopsis
Arctic high pressure will be over the region today. The next
system tracking from the central plains will move across the
great lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will bring a
wintry mix followed by rain showers and a transition back to
snow. Low pressure for the end of the week will return
temperatures to well below normal.

Near term through Tuesday
Only minor tweaks have been made to the current forecast to
reflect current radar trends and temperatures.

Still some lake effect snow showers across NE ohio into NW pa.

Much of it down to flurries with a passing light snow shower.

Any accumulations will be light. Wind chill temperatures have
improved but much of the area is near or below -10 degrees so
will let the advisory continue through noon.

Previous discussion...

remainder of the winter storm warning has expired. Continuous
lake effect snow showers, albeit much lighter, have continued
all night across the southern and eastern suburbs of cleveland
and eastward toward geneva. Overnight snowfall reports have been
of upwards of 3 new inches of snow. The band that has wobbled
on either side of geneva and across northeast trumbull county is
beginning to lose its connection with lake huron. Still expect
the light snow showers to continue across the cle metro area and
northeast oh through the morning hours. Caution will still be
needed on area roadways. With time today, shear will begin to
break up the bands of snow and the ridge will put an end to the
snow. Additional dustings to locally 2 or 3 more fluffy inches
possible.

Wind chill readings are coming in at between -10 and -20 degrees
and the wind chill advisory remains through noon when all should
be 'warmer' than the -10 threshold. Winds will slowly diminish
throughout the day.

Outside of the lake effect clouds, skies will be clear.

Temperatures will recover just the upper single digits and lower
teens. A wind chill advisory is not anticipated for tonight. An
early drop in temperatures, many below zero, will be followed by
a slow rise across the west steading temperatures across the
east. Increasing cloud cover and the beginning of a surge of
warm air advection will halt the drop. Winds will also be
lighter at the coldest part of the night. Precip will hold off
until after the daytime Tuesday. A slow, but steady warming
trend will bring late day highs to the upper 20s and close to
the freezing mark Tuesday.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
An active midweek period is expected with precip type
transitions and temperature fluctuations. The main focus will be
low pressure moving into the central great lakes by early
Wednesday morning, followed by a cold frontal passage later
Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure will attempt to
build across the region Thursday into Thursday night. The latest
model runs have some noticeable differences with the
timing speed and strength of the low moving into the region and
the timing of the frontal passage. Given the uncertainty with
the model solutions, kept the forecast fairly close to its
previous iteration, with the highest pops (categorical) from 06z
Wednesday through 00z Thursday. A wintry mix is possible at the
onset of precip early Wednesday morning, but this will
transition to mainly rain for much of the late morning early
afternoon across the area. Behind the front, colder air will
move into the area allowing for a transition back to snow
Wednesday afternoon evening, with a transition to all snow, or
possibly freezing drizzle with model sounding showing little ice
in the clouds, after 06z Thursday. There is also some
uncertainty with the exit of the front east out of the area, as
a southern stream low tracks northward along the atlantic coast,
helping to anchor the front west of the appalachians into
Thursday. Have opted for chance pops across the east Thursday
before ridging briefly builds into the area. Precip chances
increase Thursday night as another arctic front barrels toward
the area, however timing forcing and moisture differences lend
to lower confidence in finer details at this point, so will opt
for blanket chance pops Thursday night. A non-diurnal
temperature trend is expected Tuesday night through midday
Wednesday ahead of the front, with temps rising through the 30s
Tuesday night into the mid 40s Wednesday. Some guidance suggests
temps could rise in the upper 40s, but will remain conservative
given model differences and deep snowpack across the local
area. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 20s to low 30s,
with lows dropping into the teens Thursday night with the arctic
frontal passage.

Long term Friday through Sunday
The long term period will be dominated by significant troughing
across the entire eastern conus, with negative height temp
anomalies. Predominantly northwest flow will put the region in
the crosshairs for a clipper system over the weekend, although
model solutions are all over the place with timing strength. It
looks like the best timeframe for widespread snow will be
sometime Saturday or Saturday night, with lake effect snow
outside of this timeframe. Have generally went with chance pops
for the period, with highs generally in the upper teens to low
20s and lows in the single digits.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Light lake effect and flurries remain near cle cak and dotted
across northeast oh NW pa. Trend for the day is for this to
weaken further and end this evening. The lake cloud cover is
MVFR and will remain that way until lifting late this afternoon.

Snow showers bring occasional ifr vsby. Northwest winds still
with minor gusts across northeast oh NW pa will relax and back
to the west and finally south-southeast by Tuesday morning.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible Tuesday night into Friday.

Marine
Winds will continue to subside over the lake today as high
pressure builds across the region, but will keep the small craft
advisory and heavy freezing spray warning east of the islands
through mid morning with some higher winds waves out there early
this morning. Satellite images indicate widespread ice
formation west of the island, with the ice extending eastward
from point pelee south to huron. Conditions will be optimal for
continued ice growth over the next 24 hours. Winds will increase
out of the south on Tuesday and Tuesday night ahead of a cold
front, becoming westerly then northwesterly Wednesday night into
Thursday. An arctic front will cross the lake Thursday night
through Friday, with winds increasing out of the northwest.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Wind chill advisory until noon est today for ohz003-006>014-
017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.

Pa... Wind chill advisory until noon est today for paz001>003.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Oudeman
near term... Mullen oudeman
short term... Greenawalt
long term... Greenawalt
aviation... Oudeman
marine... Greenawalt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi29 min N 11 G 14
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 27 mi34 min N 20 G 25 11°F 1032.8 hPa
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi47 min NW 12 G 15 6°F 1033.2 hPa (+2.9)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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G27
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi56 minN 9 G 1510.00 miA Few Clouds10°F0°F61%1033.9 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13
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1 day agoNE12NE14NE18
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2 days agoW8W7W6W5NW9NW8NW6N6N7N7NE5NE4NE4E6NE9E8E6NE10E7E11E10NE10NE11NE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.