Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:56PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 9:04 AM EST (14:04 UTC) Moonrise 3:52PMMoonset 4:05AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ149 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 903 Pm Est Mon Nov 19 2018
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A slight chance of snow showers, then a chance of snow showers late. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. A chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday. The water temperature off toledo is 40 degrees, off cleveland 46 degrees and off erie 44 degrees.
LEZ149 Expires:201811200915;;565583 FZUS51 KCLE 200203 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 903 PM EST Mon Nov 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ145>149-200915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kcle 201141
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
641 am est Tue nov 20 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure across the eastern great lakes will move east to
the coast today. A cold front will drop into the area behind
the low. A clipper system will move across the great lakes
tonight dragging another cold front through the region. Cold but
dry conditions are expected thanksgiving.

Near term through Wednesday
Update... Increased pops to categorical east half for early this
morning. Otherwise no big changes.

Original... For today, an upper trough moving through the great
lakes combined with a surface low to our northeast was bringing
light snow to the region overnight. This should come to an end
northwest before dawn but will linger into the morning hours
east. Not really looking for any significant accums. Main
question is of potential lake enhancement. Best moisture is over
the snowbelt and the lake through about 18z with drying moving
in there after. Temps at 850mb never really get cold enough for
true lake effect but with lift and moisture in the favorable
snow growth zone through the morning expect best enhancement to
occur then. Through the afternoon 850mb temps continue to cool
to around -10c by evening but drier air moves in aloft and
dendrite growth is lost. Instability will remain at conditional
through the day and winds also shift from west, to northwest,
and then back to west through the day as a trough moves through
so limited time to set up bands. Will have accums in grids at 1
to 2 inches today across the snow belt with a 1 to 3 inch inland
eastern erie county. For tonight drying moves in with a ridge
of high pressure extending in from the southwest. This breaks
down quickly as another clipper moves through the lakes.

Associated moisture is limited but sufficient for additional
lake effect snow. Will have likely to categorical pops in the
snowbelt with another 1 to 3 the most likely outcome.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
The short term forecast begins on Wednesday night with the region
behind a cold front. Cold air advection in northwest flow over the
great lakes will usher in some cold, dry arctic air into the region.

There is a brief window for some lake effect on Wednesday night as
northwest flow is a favorable fetch for lake effect off lakes huron
and erie but the moisture off these two lake will have to fight off
quite a bit of dry air behind the front, while flow continues to
veer overnight. For now, will have a chance pop in the snow belt
with up to an inch of snow accumulation for Wednesday night, as
there is a window for lake effect but enough to keep it from getting
out of control.

Arctic high pressure will build south over the region for
thanksgiving day. This will keep the area dry, but most notably,
temperatures of -10 to -17c at 850 mb will translate to high
temperatures in the 20s. If this holds, it could be the coldest
thanksgiving on record for several areas (lowest maximum
temperature), so stay tuned for potential climate records. High
pressure will shift east on Friday as a warm front moves into the
region. Rain should hold off until Friday night, as an upper ridge
will still be in place over the region. Temperatures will recover 10-
15 degrees on Friday with the air air advection and southerly flow,
but highs will still run below normal in the upper 30s to lower
40s.

Long term Friday night through Monday
The long term forecast period looks unsettled to say the least for
this weekend. An upper trough digs into the great lakes region
Friday night into Saturday supporting a warm front. This upper level
energy should be enough to generate widespread rain on Saturday,
diminishing on Saturday night. Temperatures may actually be back
around normal for the weekend, close to 50 in many spots... Of
course, these warmer temperatures will be spoiled by rain.

Weak high pressure attempts to briefly build into the forecast area
on Sunday, which should allow at least the first half of Sunday to
be dry. However, a deep trough will dig across the central conus
supporting a surface low over the southern plains, which could
impact the region early next week. This system could draw some cold
air back into the region so p-type is going to be an issue and
something to look out for early next week. All of rain, snow, and
mixed precipitation will be a possibility depending on the track of
the low and how fast slow warmer air moves out of the region.

Temperatures will begin falling back down below normal into the
low to mid 40s.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Widespread MVFR ifr early this morning across the region with
light snow mainly east half. To the west there was a little
leftover snow as well as fog. Snow will continue to push east
out of the region through the morning although is will likely
linger mainly keri area as flow off the lake picks up added
moisture as boundary layer cools. Most areas should be able to
lift to MVFR this afternoon. Tonight guidance lifts CIGS toVFR
west and central however keri and kyng will likely dip into
MVFR at tomes with flow off the lake.

Outlook... Expect non-vfr again Tuesday night as low pressure
moving through the central lakes drags another cold front
through the area. Non-vfr possible Wednesday and Wednesday night
cle eri yng cak in lake effect snow.

Marine
A cold front moving across the lake this morning will exit southeast
of the lake by later this afternoon. Weak high pressure will attempt
to build back in behind this front but a much stronger, arctic cold
front will cross the lake on Wednesday. Once the first cold front
crosses the lake today, winds and waves will be on the increase and
remain strong through at least Wednesday night. The strongest winds
will be on Wednesday with the second cold front when there could be
gusts to 35 knots at times. Have gone ahead and issued a small craft
advisory for all of lake erie through Wednesday night. The central
basin will see the waves reach SCA criteria by late morning before
building east as the cold front clears the lake. Westerly flow will
increase late this afternoon so will start the central basin early
for the waves but everyone will be reaching SCA criteria by sunset.

High pressure will build behind the cold front on Thursday and winds
should settle to light and variable and waves will subside on the
lake. A warm front will approach the lake for the weekend bringing
southerly flow to the area.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am est Thursday for lez145>148.

Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
Thursday for lez149.

Small craft advisory from 3 pm this afternoon to 4 pm est
Wednesday for lez142>144.

Synopsis... Tk
near term... Tk
short term... Sefcovic
long term... Sefcovic
aviation... Tk
marine... Sefcovic


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi35 min WNW 16 G 19
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 27 mi65 min WNW 19 G 21 36°F 1015.2 hPa (+1.3)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi65 min NW 14 G 16 37°F 1014.3 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last
24hr
SE5
SE5
SE3
G6
E4
SE4
SE4
SE6
S5
SE4
S4
S4
S5
S6
SW6
NW16
NW14
G17
W17
G21
W15
W15
W13
G17
W13
G17
W16
G20
W17
NW16
G20
1 day
ago
SE5
SE3
S1
W2
SW1
S4
S3
S4
S6
S7
S8
S9
SW5
SW5
NW12
NW11
NW11
NW9
G12
NW10
NW8
G11
N4
G7
N4
G7
SE4
S5
2 days
ago
NW18
W17
W15
W17
NW14
G17
NW9
NW7
G10
NW8
NW7
G10
NW8
N6
G9
N8
G11
NE9
NE6
G11
E4
E7
SE6
SE6
SE5
SE6
SE6
SE5
SE5
E8

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi74 minW 102.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist36°F32°F86%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last 24hrCalmE3N4NE5NE43SE6S4CalmS3S3CalmS4CalmS5S5SW6N5CalmSW3NW7W7W10W10
1 day agoSE8CalmS4CalmS4S4S5S4S4S4S5S5SW4SW4CalmNW6NW5S3S4S4S3SW3S3S4
2 days agoW12
G19
W9
G16
W13
G19
W13W9W11W7
G17
W9W9
G15
NW76NW6N3N4E4SE4SE4S4SE4S6S6S5SE6SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (9,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.