Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Erie, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:00PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 12:55 PM EST (17:55 UTC) Moonrise 7:27PMMoonset 8:02AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:201902201530;;220189 Fzus51 Kcle 200916 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 416 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez146>149-201530- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 416 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Today..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Snow and freezing rain likely this morning, then changing to rain late this afternoon. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Rain in the evening, then a chance of rain overnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 knots or less overnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 32 degrees, off cleveland 33 degrees and off erie 32 degrees.
LEZ149


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Erie, PA
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location: 42.12, -80.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 201722
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1222 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure over northwest missouri will move to the central
great lakes by this evening. This will allow a warm front to
lift northward across the region this morning. A cold front will
sweep eastward across northern ohio and northwestern
pennsylvania this evening into the overnight. High pressure will
briefly build across that area Thursday night into Friday. A
much stronger storm system will move into the central great
lakes over the weekend.

Near term through Thursday
Have updated to remove the winter weather advisory for those
areas that were expiring at noon and also to remove
lorain cuyahoga. What remains still is a touch of freezing
drizzle and light snow for northwest oh northeast oh northwest
pa for a few more hours. Overall everything is transitioning as
expected. The freezing drizzle should have limited affect at
this point. Another surge of precipitation is expected for the
evening rush and into the early evening, but this will be plain
rain. Relevant portion of the previous discussion follows.

A cold front will sweep across the area this evening into the
overnight hours. The warmest temperatures of the day will occur
just ahead of the cold front this evening. So the highs for the
day, in the 40s, will be after dark for a large portion of the
region. The remaining rain will transition to a few snow showers
late tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure should be
ridging into the region by Thursday afternoon. Some sunshine
will be possible Thursday afternoon which may help to nudge
highs close to 40 degrees.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
Dry conditions expected Thursday night through Friday as high
pressure builds east across the region. Min temperatures on
Thursday night will be a little tricky based on the degree of
clearing of the low cloud and the influence of cirrus and high
cloud aloft, dropping into the lower to mid 20s most areas.

Expecting temperatures to recover fairly well with filtered sun
on Friday with highs near 40.

Moisture surges back north Friday night into Saturday with deep
southwest flow ahead of a system moving out of the plains. The
northward extent of the precipitation late Friday night is a little
uncertain given the dry low level easterly flow. If precipitation
arrives in areas before temperatures have a chance to warm above
freezing then could see a quick shot of light freezing rain but
chances look low. Best chance would be towards the toledo area but
would be short lived even there as temperatures climb on Saturday.

Scattered showers expected Saturday with winds veering to the south
as a warm front lifts north into the area. Late day highs in the 50s
are expected.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday
Highly dynamic system lifts out of the plains across the central
great lakes Saturday night through Sunday. A strong low level jet
wrapping north across the area Saturday night will bring showers
with a chance of thunderstorms as the warm sector moves north to
near lake erie. Warming temperatures can be expected Saturday night
with much of the area in the 50s. The system undergoes impressive
deepening both at the surface and aloft as it wraps the cold front
in from the southwest on Sunday morning. Strong winds are expected
with gusts of at least 40-50 mph if the current track holds. Will
need to monitor the track and evolution of this system with the
potential for even stronger wind gusts if the track holds.

Cold advection behind the front will bring falling temperatures
through the day on Sunday with 850mb temperatures falling by nearly
25c in 24 hours. Lingering showers will transition back to snow on
Sunday night before drying out on Monday morning. Temperatures will
back to near normal by Monday.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Still active weather for the terminals, but fortunately we are
nearly finished with fzra fzdz. Still have a little fzdz threat
for tol yng cak, but only for the next hour or two. Otherwise
either the precip will be ending or temperatures will get above
freezing. Eri will still see some light snow for a bit longer.

The relative break in the precipitation continues into mid
afternoon, but then another surge of rain is expected to cross
the terminals for late this afternoon and evening. Some fog to
follow the rain. Ceilings will be MVFR and ifr through this
afternoon and then ifr for a time overnight along with vsbys.

Ceilings slowly lift Thursday. Winds are beginning to veer to
the southeast and will continue to the south and then west-
southwest with the cold frontal passage this evening. Gusts of
25 knots or so will be common just before and after the front.

Outlook... Non-vfr Thursday. NonVFR possible again Saturday Sunday.

Marine
The lake remains mostly ice covered. Easterly flow of 15-20 knots
this morning will veer to the south today as a warm front approaches
from the south. A cold front will quickly follow this evening with
southwest winds increasing to 15-25 knots with locally up to 30
knots on the far east end into Thursday. High pressure will build
east across the region Thursday night through Friday night.

A rapidly deepening low pressure system will track out of the plains
on Saturday, moving northeast across the central great lakes
Saturday night into Sunday and bring strong winds to the region. If
the current track holds, gales are likely on lake erie as the cold
front is wrapped east across the lake. Increased winds accordingly
in the forecast but they may need to be raised even more. Winds will
veer to the northwest on Sunday night and decrease through the day
on Monday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Winter weather advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for
ohz003-006>009-012>014-021>023-033-089.

Pa... Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for
paz001>003.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mm
near term... Mm oudeman
short term... Kec
long term... Kec
aviation... Oudeman
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 4 mi55 min SE 9.9 G 16
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 27 mi55 min SE 14 G 23 33°F 1020 hPa (-3.0)
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 46 mi55 min SSE 5.1 G 8 34°F 1024 hPa (-3.5)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA6 mi64 minESE 11 G 172.00 miLight Snow33°F26°F75%1022 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4NW5NW6N4N5NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmNE4E3E3CalmSE4NE7E6NE6E4CalmSE8SE6SE12
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1 day agoNW6W9W9W9W8W7W5W8W8NW7NW3N3CalmCalmS3CalmS3S3S5S5S6S8S6SW7
2 days agoNE11NE11NE14NE11E12NE10E12NE12NE14
G19
NE11NE12NE13NE9NE12NE9NE7N8N6N8N7N5N5N6NW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.