Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:38 AM   Moonset 2:43 PM

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FXUS61 KALY 030523 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 123 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
Beautiful, early May weather is expected for the remainder of the work week. Temperatures cool off a bit over the weekend as chances for showers increase ahead of a frontal system. Dry conditions return for the beginning of next week before another frontal system looks to increase shower and possibly thunderstorm chances beginning Tuesday night.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

UPDATE
Satellite imagery showing low level stratus clouds increasing from northern/eastern New England, but expanding slowly. At this time, will mention skies becoming mostly cloudy for areas mainly north/east of Albany through the overnight hours, with partly cloudy skies elsewhere with a few additional patches of stratus clouds possible in some areas. It will remain dry with surface ridging extending south from eastern Quebec.

.PREV DISCUSSION[1022]...An upper-level shortwave and weak surface low continues to depart the New England coast as upper- level ridging builds in from the west and surface high pressure builds southward from Canada overnight. This will result in dry weather through tonight. Winds from earlier have subsided and will be rather light through the remainder of the night with the high building in and shift to a more east to southeasterly direction. Lower level clouds across eastern New England are beginning to show signs of a westward push as easterly low-level flow develops. As a result, patchy low level clouds are likely to develop later in the overnight resulting in a trend to a partly to mostly cloudy sky for most areas. The clouds may limit the potential for valley fog to form but some patchy fog could develop where there are enough breaks in the clouds. There is some uncertainty on the most favored areas for this so will leave out of the forecast at this time and monitor trends overnight. Temperatures overnight will drop into the 40s to around 50.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The dry trend continues for Friday as the ridge axis builds across the region. As the aforementioned surface low continues to drift southward, winds will gradually continue to veer to the southeast. This shift will likely make tomorrow's high temperatures a bit cooler than today, especially in western New England, as marine influence advects cooler air across the region. As such, the current forecast shows high temperatures int the upper 60s to low 70s with low to mid 60s and possibly upper 50s (high peaks) at higher elevations.

With the turning of the winds comes an expectation that some marine-layer clouds could spread across the region from southeast to northwest. However, clouds will also be on the increase from west to east ahead of an approaching frontal system. Therefore, the two shields will congeal to form partly cloudy skies across the region by the early afternoon. Breaks of sun are still likely, however, with subsidence from the ridge counteracting developing clouds.

Skies continue to cloud over throughout the evening tomorrow and into the overnight period as the ridge continues to push further west. Plenty of cloud cover will make for mild low temperatures tomorrow night with values progged to be in the upper 40s to low 50s and pockets of mid 40s especially in western New England.

While Saturday will begin dry, shower chances increase beginning Saturday afternoon as a frontal system settles into the eastern Great Lakes and an occluded/borderline stationary front becomes positioned just to the south and west of the region. While some timing discrepancies exist in the guidance pertaining to the onset of showers Saturday, general consensus points to a gradual west to east progression of the precipitation shield beginning late Saturday afternoon. The track of the boundary and its parent low will be slowed with the slow exit of the antecedent ridge, allowing showers to become prolonged into Sunday. At this time, no thunderstorms are expected as a result of this system as there is an overall lack of instability across the region.
Additionally, QPF with this precipitation looks to be relatively light. Lows Saturday night will be in the 40s across the region.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Showers continue across the region Sunday as the ridge is slow to exit the New England Coast and low pressure south of the Hudson Bay helps to reinforce shower activity as its warm sector dips into our CWA Expectation remains for little to no thunderstorm development throughout the day Sunday as little instability will be present across the region. Showers will persist throughout much of the day, however, as the low in Southeast Canada lingers overhead and its eastward-tracking cool frontal boundary helps to sustain lift. High temperatures Sunday will be cooler with primarily 50s anticipated across the region.

With the exit of the overhead low and its frontal boundary Sunday night, high pressure will begin to build in from the west such that dry conditions will be returned. Low temperatures Sunday night look to be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Dry weather ensues for the first half of the work week as modest ridging aloft builds in with the high at the surface. High temperatures will follow another warming trend Monday and Tuesday with upper 60s to low/mid 70s Monday and upper 60s to upper 70s Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances then increase once again Tuesday night into Wednesday with a warm front advancing towards the region from the southwest. It is too early to determine strength of thunderstorms, but will monitor conditions over the coming days. Highs Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday with 60s and 70s likely. At this time, Thursday appears to be dry upon the exit of the warm front with temperatures also in the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 06z Saturday...Flying conditions remain VFR at all TAF sites as of 1:20 AM EDT, although low stratus is expanding west/southwestward from wester New England and will likely result in at least periods of MVFR and possibly fuel alternate cigs from late tonight through early this morning. Stratus will likely first develop at GFL and PSF by 8z, and then at ALB and POU between 8-10z. Some pockets with brief IFR cigs can't completely be ruled out, especially at ALB and PSF, but confidence is too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. Low stratus should break up by 13-15z this morning, with VFR conditions and FEW to SCT mid-level clouds from mid-morning through at least the end of the TAF period.

Winds will be at 5 kt or less from the east/northeast through the next few hours, increasing to 5-10 kt from the east/northeast towards sunrise lasting through mid-morning. By mid-to late morning, winds switch to the southeast at 5-10 kt.
Winds remain southeasterly at 5-10 kt through the end of the TAF period at ALB/GFL/PSF, but become light and variable at POU after sunset.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Kingston Point
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Thu -- 03:05 AM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:34 AM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:51 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:26 PM EDT     3.60 feet High Tide
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Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Tivoli
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Thu -- 03:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:35 AM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:04 AM EDT     4.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:21 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:56 PM EDT     3.83 feet High Tide
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Tivoli, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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