Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fleischmanns, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:56PM Friday January 19, 2018 6:23 PM EST (23:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:51AMMoonset 8:33PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fleischmanns, NY
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location: 42.13, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 192021
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
321 pm est Fri jan 19 2018

Synopsis
Cold nights and relatively mild afternoons with mainly dry
weather is forecast through the weekend. A low pressure system
is likely to bring periods of precipitation Monday and Tuesday,
with a variety of precipitation types possible, and some
moderate to heavy rain too.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As of 320 pm, not much change to the forecast as clouds and
diminishing light snow showers downwind of lake ontario
continues. Made modifications to the pop wx per trends and
matched satellite images with forecast trends from the
hrrr hrrrx rap13. Slowed temperatures a bit per hourly
observational trends.

Clouds decrease tonight, although they may be stubborn for the
higher elevations up north. It appears a modest pressure
gradient will be maintained thanks to a clipper passing well
north of the region, so low temps should be above seasonal
normals in the upper teens to mid-20s.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night
On Saturday, a weak cold front crosses the region, though with
little deep layer moisture and upper-level support, expect it to
be mainly dry. Good mixing is forecast behind the front, so
expect temps to get a nice boost from downsloping. Looking at
temps above normal in the mid-30s to mid-40s, possibly a bit
higher if mixing is a bit deeper. The mixing will result in a
breezy day with westerly gusts of 30-40 mph possible over
favored northwesterly wind areas such as the mohawk valley and
capital district over into the berkshires as well as at higher
elevations. Clouds should be most prevalent in northern areas,
and over higher terrain.

For Saturday night, weak high pressure moves across the area. It
is a bit of a dirty high so there is expected to be broken cloud
cover. There is also a weak back door surface front stalled
across the northern part of the area. This front may trigger a
few light snow showers or areas of drizzle freezing drizzle
over the adirondacks. Clouds strt to increase all areas late
Sunday into Sunday evening. Slight chance to chance pops are in
place late Sunday night over western areas as moisture
increases in advance of a warm front.

Highs Saturday mid 30s to mid 40s. Lows Saturday night in the
20s. Highs Sunday 30s to around 40. Lows Sunday night in the
20s.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Guidance remains consistent that a large vertical stacked storm
system will impact the region early next week. A blended model
approach which was used for this forecast. It appears the
system should occluded as it moves across the region which will
limit the degree of warming which will occur.

As the system approaches guidance indicates the low level southerly
jet should be 2-3 standard deviations above normal. Also, pwats
are forecast to climb up 2-3 standard deviations above normal.

Qpf amounts now for Monday through Tuesday are forecast to be
around an inch across the local area with the bulk of that
occurring late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Initially some light snow or mixed precipitation is forecast all
areas with little accumulation of frozen precipitation outside
of the adirondacks and southern vermont where around an inch of
snow sleet may accumulate, along with a trace to a few
hundredths of an inch of freezing rain in isolated cold
pockets. Some frozen precipitation may linger into Monday night
across the northern portion of the forecast particular in the
upper hudson valley and across southern vermont. With the
passage of the system colder, seasonable air will be ushered
back in with rain changing back to snow Tuesday night. In the
wake of the system will have cold cyclonic flow across the
region with some lake effect and upslope snows Tuesday night
lingering into perhaps Wednesday night.

Temperatures are expected to be in the 30s Monday and Monday night
with areas mainly along and east of the hudson river valley warming
into the 40s on Tuesday. Temperatures Tuesday night should drop
back into the upper teens to upper 20s. Despite near seasonable
temperatures for Wednesday brisk and gusty westerly winds will
make it feel colder. Lows Wednesday night are expected to fall
into the single digits to teens with seasonable readings for
Thursday.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
Sct-bknVFR MVFR ceilings north of kpou will slowly lift
northward through the afternoon and evening hours. Conditions
should becomeVFR through tonight into Saturday.

West to southwest winds will prevail, become light in magnitudes
tonight then increase into Saturday. Llws potential tonight with
the best chance at kpsf where we will mention in the taf.

Outlook...

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of sn.

Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of ra... Sn... Sleet.

Monday night: high operational impact. Definite ra.

Tuesday: high operational impact. Definite ra.

Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of
shra... Shsn.

Wednesday: low operational impact. Breezy. No sig wx.

Hydrology
Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed
with areal flood warnings, as some lingering issues continue due
to existing ice jams which have become frozen in place. A
gradual warming trend will occur into this weekend, but below
freezing temperatures are forecast at night which will slow any
melt. We will monitor trends in temperatures due to potential
impacts on existing ice jams.

In terms of precipitation, no hydrologically significant
precipitation is expected through the weekend. A period of
mixed precipitation and rain is forecast Monday into Tuesday.

This rain is expected to cause renewed river rises, which may
move and dislodge ice and possibly cause some flooding near ice
jams.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Snd
near term... Bgm thompson
short term... Snd
long term... Snd
aviation... Bgm thompson
hydrology... Snd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 36 mi53 min 27°F 1014 hPa20°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N8
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G14
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N1
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G7
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G11
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G8
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G10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monticello, Sullivan County International Airport, NY31 mi27 minWSW 310.00 miFair26°F17°F69%1014.7 hPa

Wind History from MSV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8W5W6W3W3SW3W3W3W3W5W3W5Calm--NW4W5W7W9
G14
W11W11
G16
4W4CalmSW3
1 day agoNW8NW4NW5W3W5CalmW5W6W6W8NW7--NW6W6W8W10W7W9W13
G17
NW9
G17
NW17
G21
--NW14
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2 days agoSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W6W5W6W7W10
G15
--W10W13
G19
W10NW11
G16
NW8NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Fri -- 02:42 AM EST     3.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:04 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:46 PM EST     3.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:31 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:38 PM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.12.83.13.22.92.31.50.70.300.31.32.43.33.73.83.6321.10.3-0.1-0.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Fri -- 03:12 AM EST     3.41 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:34 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:16 PM EST     4.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:31 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:08 PM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.72.63.23.43.32.821.10.50.10.10.823.13.743.93.52.71.60.70.1-0.20.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.