Monday, November19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fleischmanns, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 4:33PM Monday November 19, 2018 11:37 AM EST (16:37 UTC) Moonrise 4:01PMMoonset 3:38AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fleischmanns, NY
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location: 42.13, -74.58     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 191456
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
956 am est Mon nov 19 2018

Synopsis
Light rain and snow showers will taper off this morning.

Unsettled weather continues tonight into Tuesday as another low
pressure system brings a mix of rain and snow to our region. A
strong cold front tracks through the area Wednesday, leading up to a
bitter cold thanksgiving day.

Near term through tonight
A winter weather advisory has been issued for southern vt
and western ma from 1 am to 7 pm Tuesday...

as of 945 am, another burst of precipitation into the central
taconics, berks and NW ct as last burst will be exiting soon as
h2o vapor loop shows a small area of subsidence moving across
the region. However, next batch of precipitation was fast
approaching from western central pa. So per our moist 12z
sounding and satellite trends, seems clouds will linger for most
of the region so increased clouds with this update (some breaks
into the dacks). Per a quick glance of the 12z rap nam, seems
the upstream precip may arrive sooner so did increase pops this
afternoon and early evening for the mohawk valley, capital
region and points south and east.

Prev disc, a weak wave passing through the area is resulting in
light rain and snow showers from the greater capital district
and points south. Best reflectivities are across southern ny but
is likely rain or a rain snow mix with temperatures hovering
just above freezing. These light snow showers are expected to
occur through the morning commute with any untreated surfaces
potentially becoming slick. Precipitation associated with the
wave is expected to exit the region by mid-morning, allowing for
a mostly dry day as temperatures warm into the mid 30s to mid
40s.

Short term Tuesday
An upper level trough, positioned over the great lakes, is
expected to deepen today as a strong impulse dives into it from
the northern plains. There is a secondary impulse embedded
within this upper trough and this feature will bring a rain snow
mix to the region tonight into Tuesday. Unlike the light precip
and weak forcing this morning, there will be more upper
dynamics and low level forcing for the system tonight tomorrow.

This will likely result in 1 to 6 inches of snow across the
central portion of the forecast area from the catskills, into
the greater capital district and into western new england,
except ct. Most of the snow is expected to fall during the early
morning hours and looks to impact the morning commute. The
higher end snow amounts should be confined to the catskills and
western new england, especially in the high terrain. Rain will
mix in with the snow during the late morning and afternoon
hours in lower elevations.

The bulk of the precipitation should exit the region by Tuesday
afternoon as the surface low and upper impulse lift off to the
northeast. Snow showers may linger over southern vt and western
ma into the evening hours. Temperatures on Tuesday will range
from the upper 20s in the dacks to the upper 30s in the mid-
hudson valley.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
A mean longwave trough will continue to impact the forecast area
through most of the long term with way below normal temperatures, as
a potent short-wave trough and attendant cold front will usher in an
arctic blast Wed pm into Wed night. The arctic intrusion will last
until the end of the week with the coldest conditions Wednesday
night through thanksgiving and into Friday morning.

Tuesday night... Low pressure moves from near the gulf of maine into
the canadian maritimes. Some residual west northwest upslope snow
showers along the southern greens, and lake effect snow showers will
produce some light snow accums of a a few tenths of an inch to an
inch. High pressure tries to ridge in from the south. The potent
short-wave trough will be moving towards the region from the
central eastern great lakes region and southeast ontario. H850
temps in the wake of the coastal sfc lows fall back into the -8c to
-12c range. Lows will be cold with brisk west to northwest winds in
the mid teens to around 20f over the mountains, and upper teens to
lower 20s in the valleys, and over NW ct.

Wed-wed night... An arctic cold front will sweep across the region
wed in the late morning into the afternoon. The latest nam GFS are
hinting at the potential of some snow showers based on the snow
squall parameter developed by wfo's btv ctp. Excellent mid and
upper level jet dynamics will be in play with the h250 upper jet
cyclonic exit region moving over upstate ny and new england. The
left front quadrant of the jet streak will be in the 100-110+ kt
range. Appreciable low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the
short-wave trough and boundary. The low-level lapse rates steepen.

There is decent 925 hpa fgen and the 3-hr rise fall pressure couplet
looks pretty good. The one ingredient looking a tad low right now
is potential instability on the gfs, which the conceptual model
would place it in the 50-100 j kg range. The snow squall
parameter would hint at a time frame from 15z-21z being the
potential impact period from W NW to S SE across the majority of
the forecast area. We will mention the snow squall possibility
in the hwo. Quick bursts of a coating to an inch or two of snow
may impact certain locales on the busy travel day. High temps
may reach in the mid and upper 30s in the valley areas, and mid
20s to lower 30s over the mtns.

The jail break of arctic air occurs Wed night with strong cold
advection with the latest 00z GFS having h850 temps fall to -20c to
-24c over the forecast area with brisk NW winds. These h850 temps
are 2 to 3 std devs colder than normal based on the latest 00z gefs.

Scattered snow showers and flurries will linger north and west of
the capital district, mid hudson valley and southwest new england as
lows will be very cold in the single digits to lower teens with some
below zero readings over the southern and western adirondacks.

Additional snow accums for portions of the western mohawk valley,
northern catskills, and schoharie valley will be a coating to an
inch or so.

Thanksgiving-Friday night... Wind chills Thursday morning will be in
the lower single digits to 15 below zero. A few colder readings
will be over the southern adirondacks. These values are flirting
with advisory levels in november over the higher terrain. The winds
will gradually lessen during the mid to late afternoon with the cold
and dry arctic air mass settling over the northeast. The arctic
high builds in from the great lakes region on thanksgiving and moves
over upstate ny and new england Friday morning. Highs on
thanksgiving will be close to record low maxes with only upper teens
to lower 20s in many of the valley areas, and teens over the higher
terrain. The winds diminish thanksgiving night with clear mostly
clear conditions with bitterly cold lows in the single numbers with
zero to 10 below readings over the southern adirondacks and southern
greens. Temps moderate slightly on the busy shopping day with the
sfc high sliding off shore. Highs will be in the 20s to lower 30s
with less wind. Another cold night is expected with increasing high
clouds late with lows in the teens to lower 20s.

Saturday-Sunday... The medium range guidance and ensembles are not in
good agreement with the next strong upper level trough that will
impact the region. We went with the superblend guidance and
gradually brought a chance of rain or snow showers into the area
late on Saturday with warm advection well in advance of a warm front
to a coastal wave near the carolinas. Ridging amplifies off the
east coast, and the upper trough becomes negatively titled for a wet
and unsettled close to the holiday weekend. We kept ptype as a mix
of rain and snow for now, as the h500 trough become negatively
tilted, as coastal low pressure system moves towards ny and new
england. We kept pops in the high chance and likely range. Highs
look still below normal in the mid 30s to lower 40s, and lows in the
20s to lower 30s.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
Low pressure continues to move across nj and south of long
island this morning with moisture over running a weak warm
front impacting locations south and east of the capital region.

This wave will pass south of the region the rest of this
morning, and lift north and east of new england to the gulf of
maine by the early afternoon with the snow and rain ending.

Another low pressure system will bring snow and rain back into
the region tonight passing along of near long island.

Conditions continue to be in the ifr MVFR levels at
kgfl kalb kpsf kpou this morning. Kpou kpsf will continue to
have a light mix of rain snow into the late morning. CIGS vsbys
should be improving to MVFRVFR levels by 18z, and thenVFR
levels by 21z. Kalb kgfl should rise from ifr low MVFR CIGS to
high MVFRVFR CIGS between 15z-18z.VFR conditions should
continue most of the afternoon.

Clouds will be in the 3.5-5 kft agl range with a mid level deck
around 10 kft agl in the late pm, but the next disturbance will
be approaching from the south and west tonight, and rain and
snow will likely overspread the region from south to north
between 00z-06z tue. We lowered conditions to MVFR levels at
kpou with rain moving back in at 01z tue, and snow moving back
in at kalb kpsf around 03z-04z tue, and 06z Tue for kgfl. The
pcpn should be mainly snow for kalb-kpsf north with CIGS vsbys
lowering to ifr levels after 06z tue. Kpou may hold as mostly
rain with vsbys CIGS lowering to ifr levels around 05z tue.

The winds will be variable in direction and light at 4 kts or
less this morning. They will increase from the west to northwest
at 4-6 kts in the late morning into the afternoon, and then
become light to calm again after 00z tue.

Outlook...

Monday night: moderate operational impact. Likely sn.

Tuesday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Shsn... Sn.

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Scattered shsn.

Wednesday night: moderate operational impact. Breezy scattered shsn.

Thanksgiving day: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
Light rain and snow showers will taper off this morning.

Unsettled weather continues tonight into Tuesday as another low
pressure system brings a mix of rain and snow to our region. A
strong cold front tracks through the area Wednesday, leading up to a
bitter cold thanksgiving day.

Hydrology
River flows will continue to lower into next week with colder
than normal temperatures continuing, and mainly light
precipitation events. No widespread hydro problems are
anticipated.

A disturbance and a cold front will bring chances of snow
showers or a period of light snow tonight into Tuesday. A mix
of rain and snow is possible in the mid hudson valley and
northwestern connecticut. QPF totals of a tenth of an inch to up
to half of an inch is expected, with the higher amounts south
and east of the greater capital district.

Scattered snow showers and squalls are expected along a cold
front Wednesday. Colder than normal temperatures persist into
the thanksgiving holiday with flows continuing to recede.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est Tuesday for
maz001-025.

Vt... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 7 pm est Tuesday for
vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Nas jlv
near term... Bgm jlv
short term... Jlv
long term... Wasula
aviation... Wasula
fire weather... Nas jlv
hydrology... Nas jlv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 35 mi38 min N 1.9 G 4.1 37°F 40°F35°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 36 mi68 min 36°F 1021 hPa35°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 97 mi53 min W 3.9 G 5.8 47°F 41°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 97 mi53 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 49°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monticello, Sullivan County International Airport, NY31 mi1.7 hrsN 01.50 miFog/Mist37°F35°F93%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from MSV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE5S6SE7SE4SE6CalmE3E4E3E4NE3E4NE3NE3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmW3
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Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
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Mon -- 02:35 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:00 AM EST     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:57 AM EST     3.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:30 PM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:16 PM EST     3.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.22.51.71.10.60.30.71.62.63.33.73.93.732.21.610.60.61.32.233.53.8

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:35 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:30 AM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:27 AM EST     3.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:31 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:00 PM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:46 PM EST     3.56 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.71.91.30.80.40.41.122.83.33.63.63.22.51.81.20.70.50.81.72.53.13.53.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.