Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wesleyville, PA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:43PM Thursday May 23, 2019 1:30 PM EDT (17:30 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:54AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ149 Expires:201905231430;;317090 Fzus51 Kcle 230807 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 407 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez148-149-231430- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 407 Am Edt Thu May 23 2019
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then showers and Thunderstorms late this morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees, off cleveland 55 degrees and off erie 54 degrees.
LEZ149


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wesleyville , PA
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location: 42.13, -80     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 231613
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1213 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will cross the upper great lakes today with a cold
front settling south across the area this evening. High pressure
from the northern plains will build east across the region on
Friday. A warm front will lift north on Saturday then sink south
again on Sunday maintaining a focus for active weather.

Near term through Friday
Update... Adjusted pops and clouds based on quickly changing
radar and satellite. Quick look at afternoon forecast sounding
imply we may not be quite done with convection. Mfd forecast li
at 4pm is -8c with capes over 2800 j kg so boosted afternoon
pops back into the southern tier. No other significant changes.

Original... Low pressure is located over the arrowhead of
minnesota this morning with a cold front extending south across
illinois. The forecast area is starting off in the warm sector
ahead of an MCS tracking across indiana. This convection has
been maintained overnight as an upper level wave rides out of
the plains towards the southern great lakes with a 65 knot low
level jet. This jet is providing tremendous moisture advection
into the region, working to overcome the very dry air noted
above 900mb on the 00z dtx sounding. The 08z SPC mesoanalysis
shows a large pw gradient across the state of indiana with a 0.6
inch pw near toledo and 1.7 inches near chicago. It is unclear
to what extent this drier air will have on causing this complex
to weaken as it approaches the i-75 corridor towards 11z or if
the MCV and steep mid-level lapse rates will be sufficient to
maintain storm intensity and prompt convective warnings towards
sunrise. The rap suggests a corridor of instability will advect
north ahead of the line with 750 j kg of ml cape, helping to
maintain intensity until at least 8-10 am before starting to
weaken. There is high confidence that thunderstorms with
considerable lightning will move across the area this morning
but at some point convection may become elevated, lessening the
threat of severe weather. Coordination will continue with the
storm prediction center this morning and severe thunderstorm
watches warnings will be issued if needed. Latest runs of the
hrrr indicate convection will be almost east of the forecast
area by 16z.

Morning thunderstorm activity will stabilize the atmosphere and take
some time to recover into this afternoon. However many areas will
clear out this afternoon allowing temperatures to approach 80
degrees with good mixing and breezy southwest winds gusting to 30
mph. Dewpoints will remain high in the mid to upper 60s ahead of the
cold front this afternoon and expect CAPE values of 1000 j kg or
more to develop across the southern counties. Sufficient forcing
along the cold front may support redevelopment of scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms this afternoon in the 21-01z time frame. We
will monitor any storms to develop but expect the primary severe
weather threat today to be this morning.

High pressure will build in behind the front for Friday bringing a
drier airmass and cooler temperatures. Highs on Friday will range
from the mid 60s at the lakeshore to upper 70s south with thickening
mid-cloud from the west during the afternoon.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
Upper ridge will build over the ohio valley great lakes Friday night
as a surface warm front lifts north of the area. A southwesterly low
level jet will nose northeastward into the southern great lakes late
Friday night into Saturday. Most of the overnight will be dry across
the area, however some increased chances for precip arrive on the
periphery of the LLJ by early Saturday morning. Instability will
increase across the region through the day Saturday as a mid level
shortwave approaches the region from the west. Good mid level flow
and unstable conditions will result convection increasing across the
area ahead of the wave, with the potential for some diurnally driven
strong to possibly severe storms. Low level lapse rates will be
steep with decent mid level lapse rates, and enough deep
layer effective bulk shear to organize convective, initially
discrete and possible growing upscale into something linear, with
large hail damaging winds possible. The threat will be contingent
upon how unstable the area gets through the day and the timing of
any mid level forcing. Given the synoptic pattern Saturday night, it
isn't out of the question that we could have upstream convection
develop and move eastward into the area by early Sunday morning. A
more potent wave is expected to track eastward across the region
Sunday afternoon, with another round of convection expected. Model
differences with the exact track timing of the forcing precludes
anything more than low likely high chance pops Sunday tapering to
slight chance chance pops Sunday night. Highs on Saturday will be in
the low to mid 80s for much of the area, but will be a touch cooler
Sunday in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Long term Monday through Wednesday
A brief lull in the active weather regime is expected Monday with a
more amplified longwave pattern setting up and a period of ridging
over the region Monday into Monday night. A warm front will lift
north through the area Monday night into Tuesday as low pressure
tracks northeast through the western great lakes, with some slight
chance low chance pops forecasted. Upper ridging will hold across
the region Tuesday, although the ridge will be a bit more flattened
over the great lakes. Pops increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as
low pressure tracks through the great lakes bringing a frontal
boundary towards the area. Still kept pops in the low to mid chance
range during this period with the better forcing west of the area,
although the region will be unstable in the warm sector. Highs will
generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s through the period.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
Thunderstorm complex moving east across the area will bring
thunderstorms with strong winds to areas from mfd-cle eastward
through 15z. Gusts to 40 knots will be common with gusts to 50
knots possible. Brief heavy rain with ifr visibilities will be
possible.

After the morning activity moves through, the airmass will try
to destabilize from mfd-cak and points south after 21z.

Scattered thunderstorms may re-develop this afternoon in this
area and may need to be added to the terminals.

By late morning we will start to see southwest winds become
breezy with gusts to around 25-30 knots. Winds will drop off to
5-15 knots tonight as they shift around to the northwest behind
a cold front.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible in thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

Marine
Low pressure tracking across the great lakes today will bring a cold
front to the western end of the lake this afternoon, crossing the
lake by the overnight hours. Southwest winds today ahead of the
front will increase to 15-20 kts before becoming more west to
northwest and weakening behind the front tonight. There may be a
need for a small craft advisory on the western half of the lake this
afternoon into this evening, however winds will remain just below
criteria, and shore parallel flow should keep waves in the 2-4 ft
range. High pressure will build east across the lake tonight through
Friday before the front lifts back north across the lake as a warm
from late Friday night through Saturday morning. This will keep
winds out of the west southwest across the lake through Sunday,
until another cold front sweeps across the lake, with winds becoming
west to northwest Sunday night into Monday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kec
near term... Kec tk
short term... Greenawalt
long term... Greenawalt
aviation... Kec
marine... Greenawalt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 6 mi43 min WSW 9.9 G 18
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 42 mi31 min SW 16 G 19 65°F 1012.3 hPa (-1.6)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA10 mi40 minSW 14 G 2410.00 miA Few Clouds79°F62°F56%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from ERI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8NW3SE6SE16
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1 day agoW8NW7W7NW7W5NW6W3CalmCalmCalmE4E3CalmS3E4NE3E4CalmSE9SE13
G23
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2 days agoW17
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W8W8NW8NW10NW9NW6NW8NW6NW5CalmS3S3S34NW5W6NW6W7W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.