Monday, March18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Bluff-Brant Rock, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 6:54PM Monday March 18, 2019 10:08 PM EDT (02:08 UTC) Moonrise 4:01PMMoonset 5:36AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 956 Pm Edt Mon Mar 18 2019
Rest of tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 956 Pm Edt Mon Mar 18 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds over the waters through Tue, moving further offshore Wed. A cold front and possible low pres will move across the waters late Thu or Thu night, followed by gusty nw winds Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Bluff-Brant Rock, MA
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location: 42.15, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 190154
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
954 pm edt Mon mar 18 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will bring dry and cool weather with moderating
temperatures by Wednesday afternoon. A coastal storm impacts the
region Thursday into Friday morning with a period of heavy rain
and strong winds. A shot of cold air behind the departing storm
into Saturday, then more seasonable conditions return Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
10 pm update ...

snow showers previously over eastern ny have weakened upon
entering western ma with dew pt depressions on the order of
20-25 degs. 00z observed sounding from aly confirms lots of dry
air below 850 mb. Thus this will be the theme overnight with
just some patchy clouds from time to time with perhaps a few
flurries over western ma into northern ct. Previous forecast
captures this well so no major changes.

Only modification to the forecast was to lower mins overnight as
many locations reporting light to calm winds. This coupled with
a very dry airmass (dew pts in the single digits and teens along
with pwats down to 0.2 inches) and mainly clear skies,
radiational cooling will support lows in the 20s region-wide
overnight.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Expect a period of mostly sunny skies Tuesday between shortwaves.

Cold pool aloft lingers the first part of the day, so daytime
heating should mix deeply in the atmosphere, likely at or above
800 mb. This should again support MAX sfc temps in the upper 30s
to mid 40s.

Second shortwave sweeps through on Tuesday night. A second period
of clouds is possible at this time, but moisture values look drier
than tonight so probably fewer clouds. Dew points in the teens with
light winds, but clouds may interfere with radiational cooling.

We will go with min temps in the 20s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
* highlights ...

- mild Wednesday
- potential coastal storm Thursday, watching tides
- breezy Friday, turning colder into Saturday
* overview ...

see-saw pattern. Seemingly +epo with NE pacific low pressure that
aids in maintaining a +pna over western N america, pacific arctic
energy downsheared W of a baffin bay tropospheric polar vortex into
preferred h5 troughing S into the E conus. An occasional cyclonic
wave break over the W CONUS adding to forecast challenges, looking
at a late-week potent coastal storm system tapping into sub-tropical
energy and moisture which forecast model consensus has continually
strengthened the last several runs. Brief and juxtaposed by central
conus storminess latent heat release E as the N atlantic is wide
open. Airmass swings communicated in meteograms, yet temperatures
hold near-seasonable with highs around the mid to upper 40s. Touch
on details below.

* details ...

Wednesday ...

mild. Return S air, breezy, dry. Expect highs up around 50 as the
boundary-layer mixes out as an inverted-v profile. Low dewpoints.

Increasing clouds late out of the sw.

Thursday ...

potential coastal storm. Forecast guidance consensus continues to
step up the potency of n-stream energy diving S through preferred h5
troughing into the sub-tropics pulling back N beneath lower heights.

More favorable baroclinicity beneath stronger dynamics ascent, cold
air seemingly eroded the previous day, looking at mostly rain with
potential pockets of moderate to heavy, perhaps a rumble of thunder
as well. But nudging W high pressure ridge and a wide-open atlantic,
not going with likely pops just yet, keep it at chance. Uncertainty
as to whether we can over-achieve on temperatures dewpoints. Also
watching winds as tides will be astronomically high (boston only
a foot shy of minor flooding). As to the 18.12z ec, near record with
respect to lowest surface pressures for mid-march, it is somewhat
suspicious but not ignoring it. If future model consistency, then
concern with respect to tides and or potentially manifestation
of colder air yielding wet snow on the backside of the storm. Wait
and see.

Friday ...

blustery and turning colder, if the coastal storm manifests and also
strengthens e. Scattered shower activity lingering. H85 temperatures
dropping to around -10 to -12c Sunday morning. Mild Friday, but lows
Friday night could be back down into the teens. Mixing up around h8
possible, mix-down faster winds, drier air, 25 to 35 mph gusts with
gales over the waters, possibly stronger if the pressure thermal
gradient strengthens on the backside of the departing system.

Weekend ...

showery weather may linger early on. Overall, expecting mostly dry
conditions with near-seasonable temperatures as NW winds prevail. A
mix of Sun and clouds beneath increasing high pressure.

Early next week ...

squeeze play. N-stream energy continues to dip along the flat-base
of the preferred h5 trof as cut-off energy from the central plains
begins to exit e. Juxtaposition of airmasses, a low confidence
forecast.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

10 pm update ...

no changes from previous tafs...VFR, light winds and a few
flurries across western ma ct. Previous discussion below.

==================================================================
vfr. Sct-bkn050. A few flurries possible. Daytime W winds 10 kts
with gusts up to 20 kts, otherwise around 5 to 10 kts.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ...

Wednesday:VFR.

Wednesday night:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance sn, slight chance
shsn.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
ra.

Thursday night:VFR. Breezy. Chance ra, chance sn.

Friday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Friday night through Saturday:VFR. Windy with gusts up to
35 kt.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

Bit breezy along the near-shore presently with gusts up around
20 kts will persist for the evening hours before diminishing. A
lull into Tuesday morning, expect breezy NW winds to re-emerge
with around 10 to 15 kts, gusts up to 20 knots. Seas generally 1
to 2 feet.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ...

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Thursday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain, chance of rain showers.

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Friday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Climate
In just three weeks, 70 degrees will change from near record to
no surprise, and in another 1 1 2 months just a part of the
landscape.

Average first ocarinas of 70 degree high temperatures (since
records began as early as 1872)
boston... ... .April 8th
hartford... ..April 1
providence... April 8th
worcester... .April 11th
average first ocarinas of 70 degree daily average temperatures
daily average temperatures = (high + low) 2 (since records
began as early as 1872)
boston... ... .May 27th
hartford... ..May 10th
providence... May 20th
worcester... .May 29th

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wtb sipprell
near term... Wtb nocera sipprell
short term... Wtb
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Wtb nocera sipprell
marine... Wtb sipprell
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 14 mi78 min NW 7.8 G 7.8 38°F 39°F1 ft1025.1 hPa (+2.1)20°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 26 mi78 min Calm G 1.9 35°F 1 ft1025.7 hPa (+2.1)16°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 26 mi124 min NW 9.7 G 12 38°F 38°F1 ft1023.8 hPa
44090 26 mi38 min 37°F1 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 27 mi38 min 38°F 1026 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 40 mi143 min SW 1 36°F 1025 hPa24°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi38 min 37°F 42°F1026.6 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 43 mi38 min WNW 4.1 G 4.1 38°F 1026.4 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 43 mi38 min 38°F 38°F1025.9 hPa
FRXM3 43 mi38 min 39°F 13°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 48 mi38 min N 6 G 8 38°F 38°F1025.9 hPa
PVDR1 48 mi38 min NW 6 G 7 37°F 1026.4 hPa8°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 49 mi38 min W 12 G 14 37°F 38°F1026 hPa29°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 49 mi38 min WNW 8 G 9.9 38°F 41°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA5 mi13 minN 010.00 miFair30°F12°F47%1026.1 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA18 mi16 minN 010.00 miFair26°F12°F55%1026.2 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA24 mi12 minS 410.00 miFair28°F21°F75%1026.3 hPa

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Damons Point, North River, Massachusetts
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Damons Point
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Mon -- 03:48 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:46 AM EDT     9.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:28 PM EDT     -0.73 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:26 PM EDT     8.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.842.10.70.31.33.25.47.79.39.78.97.35.22.90.8-0.6-0.50.92.95.37.68.88.8

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
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Mon -- 12:58 AM EDT     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:17 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:10 AM EDT     1.21 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:05 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:20 PM EDT     -1.31 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:48 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:00 PM EDT     1.31 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-1.1-1-0.30.71.11.21.20.80.1-0.5-1-1.2-1.3-1.3-0.80.211.31.31.10.5-0.2-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.