Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Bluff-Brant Rock, MA

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Sunrise 5:05AMSunset 8:24PM Thursday June 20, 2019 1:49 AM EDT (05:49 UTC) Moonrise 11:03PMMoonset 8:00AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 116 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Rest of tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. A slight chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low clouds and fog along with light winds will persist through early Thursday. Some improvement during Thursday prior to a sweeping cold front with showers and Thunderstorms along and ahead. High pressure and westerly winds for the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Bluff-Brant Rock, MA
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location: 42.15, -70.62     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 200531
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
131 am edt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
Widely scattered showers will be possible through tonight, but
the majority of this time period should feature dry weather. A
more potent storm system impacts the region late Thursday into
Friday with numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
that may contain locally heavy rainfall, especially across
northern and western ma. Dry and seasonable weather returns for
the weekend, then more summery weather for early next week with
a risk for a few showers and thunderstorms at times.

Near term until 6 am this morning
130 am update...

regional radar shows an area of showers and thunderstorms in
eastern pa and nj lifting ne. High-res models want to bring
this activity into sne before sunrise, while additional widely
scattered showers pop up as deeper moisture works its way into
region. Models do show some mucape, primarily in western new
england, so it's possible we get some isolated storms in that
area. Otherwise expect a muggy night with low clouds and patchy
fog.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Friday
Thursday Thursday night...

shower chances increase thru Thursday, likely to categorical pops,
with brief locally heavy rainfall possible. Surface low pressure
tracks from the southern great lakes region eastward into new
england. Low pressure drops to 995 mb, atypical for mid-june. System
is moisture-rich with pwats near 2", and is accompanied by a digging
trough axis and divergence aloft from a curved upper level jet. The
better dynamics are expected to be N of our area, where a lingering
frontal boundary will also provide better forcing. Convective
allowing models support this as where the higher QPF is forecast.

However this will need to continue to be monitored.

Within sne, expecting mainly 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall during
thu into Thu night, with locally higher lower amounts possible.

Highest rainfall totals are expected across northern western
ma. Scattered thunderstorms are expected during Thursday
afternoon and evening, which could bring localized heavy
rainfall and minor urban poor drainage flooding.

Winds start off light from the east Thu morning, becoming S se
later in the day. Cloud cover, precipitation and onshore flow
will limit highs to the mid 60s to mid 70s, coolest along the
shoreline and the higher terrain of the east slopes berkshires.

Surface low expected cross thru sne during the overnight, bringing a
cold front thru the area. Pwats remain quite high during this
timeframe, again close to 2", and soundings remain close to moist
adiabatic. Thus we have continued likely to categorical pops for
showers, with scattered to isolated thunderstorms possible thru the
evening hours.

Winds Thu night start out from the S se, then eventually become nw
during the overnight as the low starts to track E of our area.

Surface dewpoints remain high overnight, keeping lows in the low to
mid 60s across most of the region. Far interior higher terrain may
be a bit cooler, in the upper 50s, towards daybreak fri.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Highlights...

* showers linger fri, improving from west to east in the afternoon
* dry seasonable this weekend with a warming trend
* warmer temps early next week with the risk for a few showers t-
storms but majority of the time will be dry
details...

Friday...

surface low and attending cold front will be moving off the coast in
the morning, but sharp mid level trough axis and deep moisture plume
is lagging to the west and sweeps through new eng during the day
with comma head likely bringing a period of showers to the region.

Drying moves in from the west in the afternoon so expect improving
conditions and partial sunshine developing in western new eng in the
afternoon. Temps are tricky Fri and may fall into the upper 50s to
lower 60s as showers move through with post frontal northerly winds,
then possibly recover into the 70s in the ct valley in the afternoon
as sunshine develops.

Saturday and Sunday...

deep upper trough from the maritimes to east of new eng Sat with
cyclonic flow will lead to diurnal CU developing and a mix of clouds
and sun. There is a low risk for a brief shower sprinkle in eastern
ma as shortwave energy rotates through. Otherwise, a dry day with
seasonable temps in the 70s, but breezy at times. Then Sunday will
feature more sunshine, less wind and warmer temps as the upper tough
lifts out. Highs should reach upper 70s to lower 80s as 850 mb
temps moderate to 12-14c by late day.

Monday through Wednesday...

upper ridge builds into new eng Mon but is replaced by a broad
trough late Tue into Wed as shortwave energy lifts across SE canada.

Mon looks mostly dry as best instability remains to the west but
can't rule out a shower or t-storm in the west in the afternoon.

Then risk for a few showers t-storms increases Mon night into Tue as
moisture instability increase ahead of approaching shortwave. Risk
of showers may linger into Wed depending on timing of cold front but
this is uncertain.

Overall, warmer temps expected early next week but confidence is not
high in specific temp forecast and it is possible a weak backdoor
front could bring cooler temps. Large differences between GFS and
ecmwf for Tue with GFS showing major heat in the 90s while ECMWF has
boundary to the west with onshore flow and temps in the 60s. While
the ECMWF solution is not the likely scenario, it decreases
confidence in heat potential. Considerable temp differences continue
for Wed with ecwmf remaining on the cool side of the guidance.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Ifr lifr ceilings prevail along with fog, mainly near south
coast. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible toward
sunrise, mainly in western ma and ct. Should only have scattered
showers today before showers and thunderstorms become more
widespread tonight into Friday morning. Conditions gradually
improve toVFR from W to E Friday, although a pop-up shower or
thunderstorm could develop Friday afternoon.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Best chance of
showers is this afternoon and again late tonight, although a
brief shower may occur this morning.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Brief shower or
storm possible through sunrise, then better chance of
showers storms later today and tonight.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Friday night:VFR.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra.

Saturday night through Sunday night:VFR.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Tonight...

seas 1 to 3 feet with mainly SE winds 10 kts or less. Isolated
showers and areas of fog are expected to develop, locally dense
with visibility less than 1 2 mile.

Thursday...

showers become more numerous, with areas of fog. Visibility
will be reduced in areas of fog, especially during the morning
when visibility may be below 1 mile at times. Seas 2 to 4 ft,
with ese winds 10-15 kts.

Thursday night...

seas building to 3 to 5 feet on the southern outer waters. Wind
start out from the S SE at 10 to 20 kt, then back during the
overnight hours as low pressure crosses over the waters.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kjc nmb
near term... Jwd
short term... Nmb
long term... Kjc
aviation... Jwd
marine... Kjc nmb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 14 mi60 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 60°F 59°F2 ft1007.8 hPa (-1.4)60°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 26 mi60 min SE 12 G 14 56°F 2 ft1008.4 hPa (-2.0)56°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 26 mi106 min SSE 9.7 G 12 59°F 58°F2 ft1009 hPa
44090 26 mi50 min 62°F1 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 27 mi56 min 66°F 1008.4 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 40 mi65 min SW 1.9 62°F 1009 hPa62°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 42 mi56 min 64°F 71°F1008.6 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 43 mi50 min SE 6 G 8 64°F 1008.2 hPa (-1.9)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 43 mi50 min 62°F 63°F1008.5 hPa (-1.6)
FRXM3 43 mi56 min 64°F 62°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 48 mi50 min SSW 6 G 8 64°F 66°F1007.8 hPa (-1.8)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 49 mi40 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 65°F1008.6 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 49 mi50 min SE 6 G 7 63°F 68°F1008.3 hPa (-1.7)

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA5 mi55 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy61°F60°F100%1008.5 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA18 mi58 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast63°F60°F90%1008.4 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA24 mi54 minS 610.00 miOvercast60°F59°F96%1008.7 hPa

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalm3Calm3CalmCalmNE3NE5E4E4E7SE6
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1 day agoSW4SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S6SE6SE4SE4SE44S44SE3SE4CalmCalmS3CalmCalm
2 days ago4W4CalmCalm454
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NE7E56SE5S6S7S6S4CalmSW4SW5SW4SW5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Damons Point, North River, Massachusetts
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Damons Point
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Thu -- 02:04 AM EDT     9.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:44 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:44 PM EDT     8.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:52 PM EDT     1.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.98.79.497.763.91.80.3-0.10.82.44.46.57.98.27.66.34.72.91.511.83.4

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
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Thu -- 01:30 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:08 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:25 AM EDT     1.18 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:20 PM EDT     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:39 PM EDT     1.12 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.3-0.3-0.7-1.1-1.2-1.3-1-0.10.711.21.10.60-0.4-0.8-1-1.1-1-0.40.511.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.