Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 7:26PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 8:39 AM EDT (12:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:36PMMoonset 10:32PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;677433 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, MI
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location: 42.15, -84.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 261110
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
710 am edt Tue sep 26 2017

Aviation
Another round of light fog around sunrise will precedeVFR for the
rest of the day and into this evening. There will be an increase in
high clouds during the afternoon, and a light but more consistent
southwest wind, as a cold front moves closer from the midwest. This
front is due to reach SE michigan tonight after midnight and exit
into ohio shortly after sunrise Wednesday. A moderate northwest wind
shift will include a pattern of borderline MVFR ifr ceiling and a
low chance of showers as the front moves through the region.

For dtw... VFR under increasing high clouds during afternoon will
thicken and lower tonight. Ceiling will remain above 5000 ft through
evening and then become MVFR ifr with the frontal passage around 11z
Wednesday morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less Wednesday morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 315 am edt Tue sep 26 2017
discussion...

one more day with high temperatures topping out at 90 degrees, as
the trend of the cold front looks to be a bit slower. With 850 mb
temps progged to reach and slightly exceed 18 c this afternoon, high
confidence in maxes reaching 90 degrees or even slightly better based
on upstream observations yesterday and with the favorable light
southwest low level flow today, which should lead to fairly uniform
temperatures across southeast michigan, + - 2 degrees from 90.

Still favoring a dry or mainly dry frontal passage with little to no
upper level support PV advection, as local probabilistic sref
weighted guidance indicating pops under 30 percent. Instability
looks to be limited to a couple hundred j kg of mucape, and if there
is any activity, looks to be north of i-69, in the tail of the 850
mb low level jet.

With the surface cold front looking to come through Wednesday
morning, should allow detroit to hit 80 degrees on Wednesday before
the deeper cool air can become established. 925-850 mb temps then
falling into the mid single numbers Wednesday night, as pronounced
surface ridging arrives Thursday morning. MAX temperatures
potentially coming up just short of 70 degrees on Thursday, as 850 mb
temps look to only recover to around 6 c.

Seasonably strong upper level wave trough coming out of the gulf of
alaska will encompass the great lakes region on Friday, but remain
progressive, with the trough axis moving off the east coast by 00z
Sunday already, per 00z euro. Upper level northwest confluent flow
over the weekend will lead to dry conditions as the large area of
high pressure is slow to slide eastward. If the center of the high
remains parked over over the central great lakes Saturday night,
could see min temperatures dip into the upper 30s across the normally
colder spots. Fog could turn out to be an issue as well. With the
chilly airmass and limited mixing depths, looking at daytime temps
holding in the 60s. Forecast is mostly sunny for the weekend, but
always have to be leary of good diurnal CU up.

Building heights and increasing southwest flow early next week will
support another significant warm up, with 80 degrees not out of the
question by the time we get to Tuesday, but still big differences in
the position of the strong upper level ridge, based off the 00z
euro GFS canadian solutions.

Marine...

after one more day of warm conditions and light wind, a cold front
will cross the central great lakes late tonight through Wednesday
morning. The front will drop temperatures back down to readings more
typical for late september and produce a low chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Winds behind the front will turn northwest at
moderate speed, especially over the open waters of northern and
central lake huron where gusts around 30 knots will be possible
through Wednesday evening. Part of the forecast to monitor remains
wave height trends in the nearshore areas which are expected to
remain below criteria for small craft advisories due to the
northwest fetch. High pressure will settle over the region Thursday
followed quickly by another low pressure system and cold front due
Friday. This system will bring a reinforcement of colder air and
unstable marine conditions Friday and Friday night before rapid
improvement occurs with high pressure during the weekend.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 43 mi52 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 71°F 1015.9 hPa62°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 65 mi40 min Calm G 1 73°F 1016.3 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi47 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist60°F60°F100%1015.6 hPa
Adrian, Lenawee County Airport, MI19 mi47 minWSW 32.50 miFog/Mist61°F60°F97%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from ARB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE4S5Calm3SE5E8E7SE7E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmSE3E3SE6SE8E9E6E7E6E7E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalm3NE5E3E9E6SE6SE4SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.